The transition to Futures trading

[tech/a]

I was lucky
Got on late and managed to keep a few ticks out of a stop.
The short play was clear early.
I think the volume spikes were long covers.

PAV Just remember that once the trade is going your way you can adjust
you initial stop right up.
To B/E or below or above---

I need my sleep--

 

[kid hustlr]

I was lucky
Got on late and managed to keep a few ticks out of a stop.
The short play was clear early.
I think the volume spikes were long covers.

PAV Just remember that once the trade is going your way you can adjust
you initial stop right up.
To B/E or below or above---

I need my sleep--

@ bolded:

Don't think so. I saw them in the book, it was just mulling around at a price then all of a sudden the tape showed 1000 lots going through.

nice trading by the way tech

 

[pavilion103]

I was lucky Got on late and managed to keep a few ticks out of a stop. The short play was clear early. I think the volume spikes were long covers. PAV Just remember that once the trade is going your way you can adjust you initial stop right up. To B/E or below or above--- I need my sleep--

The problem is that I'm holding too tightly to 15-20 point profits in a trade. This is an issue when the bigger move is there clear to see.

Next time I should go for a walk haha.

All good!

 

[CanOz]

I think we have an excess high in place, a near term top....Speaking specifically of the ES and the DAX.

I think the cats been put amongst the pigeons, with last nights Feds comments we've seen some pretty good rejection...flushing out some shorts along the way. It will be interesting to see if we can accept value and move higher, or reject value here and continue lower....

 

[pavilion103]

Take 2 from last night?

Same setup.

16 points in profit.

Stop at BE.

Do I hold? haha

 

[pavilion103]

Got out after that large bullish down bar on huge volume.

 

[pavilion103]

Yet it keeps moving lower!

Sigh!

Doesn't seem to matter how many times I write it down.....

 

[pavilion103]

I don't care what anyone thinks of me posting this but I am beyond pissed off. One simple instruction to myself. A carbon copy of last night. DAMMIT! 2 great entries in a great place on the daily chart wasted!

So far 70 points from 2 nights gone begging.

ONE SIMPLE INSTRUCTION! LEAVE STOP AT BE.
I moved it 7 freaking points and lost out on many more.

End rant...

 

[CanOz]

I don't care what anyone thinks of me posting this but I am beyond pissed off. One simple instruction to myself. A carbon copy of last night. DAMMIT! 2 great entries in a great place on the daily chart wasted!

So far 70 points from 2 nights gone begging.

ONE SIMPLE INSTRUCTION! LEAVE STOP AT BE.
I moved it 7 freaking points and lost out on many more.

End rant...

This is always an issue....

Either take profit, or trade two or more and leave a runner....all in scale out.

I'm sure Tech just takes his profit?

 

[pavilion103]

I don't mind taking profit. But I set myself strict instructions tonight and still didn't follow them.
My BE stop made sense. I panicked and got out!

It's ok.

Next time.

 

[CanOz]

I don't mind taking profit. But I set myself strict instructions tonight and still didn't follow them.
My BE stop made sense. I panicked and got out!

It's ok.

Next time.

Ahh, so you had another trailing stop planned? You wanted to hold O/N? Then what? Trail an EOD stop?

 

[cynic]

The most I have lost in 1 trade
Is $7865 when you surpass that
You've earnt your rant!!

Yippeee!!!

That means I've earnt my rant!

My single worst losing trade was 8,820 EUROs.
(I knew there had to be a silver lining in there somewhere - thanks for pointing it out to me!)

Could this be the beginning of a competition to find the biggest loser?

Have a great trip
Travel ---- that's life!
I envy you.

+1

 

[kid hustlr]

We should just buy the FTSE at 1am every day. As soon as the USA opens everything turns around and goes bid.

Pav,

In isolation the long set up we took last night was fine.

Contextually I think it was a really bad trade.

 

[pavilion103]

Ahh, so you had another trailing stop planned? You wanted to hold O/N? Then what? Trail an EOD stop?

My thoughts CanOz.

At the start of the past two nights, I identified a high and then entered around 6684 with about 7 point risk with a stop at the top.

Both nights I identified a target of around the 6630ish area. Overall market conditions (daily chart) were bearish.

My game plan was that there was potentially 50 points on the table each night, if I get a good entry (which I did), put my stop to BE as soon as I can and then let it run.


This is how I planned to look at the trades, but didn't follow through with. This is the mindset I want to trade with going forward:

Ongoing analysis of Risk to Reward DURING the trade.
At the start stop was BE on both with about 40-50 point potential.
When the trade was 7 points up last night I got out.
If I had left my stop at BE the risk was 7 points. Reward was probably 35-40 points.
The downside potential was worth the risk of holding near the high.
There was no major support down to 6630 either.
Here, I should still be on notice for bullish signs, but not jump off hastily when one or two arises.

NOW as this gets closer to 6650, 6640 etc, the RR reverses.
The downside potential then becomes, say 10 points, with 40 in the bank.
Now I have 40 to risk and only 10 to gain.
THIS is when I should tread cautiously and look to exit on signs of bullishness.

 

[pavilion103]

The most important thing for me to identify is:

- Strong support and resistance levels. AND apply the ongoing RR analysis during the trade based on where I am in that range between support and resistance. THEN determine how aggressive I will be with my trade management.

I will give myself leniancy in that last night was a little different to the night before.
Wednesday, I simply panicked on the pullback and stupidly exited. The pullback will always come. No need to be scared off.
Last night, I thought that there genuinely was some support. But I jumped the gun. It was still near a strong high and the percentage play was to let it play out. Had this occurred near a support level, then I should give it the most significance.
I need to recognise that even in a down-move there will be some bullish activity. 1) wait for more confirmation. 2)If not, hold my nerve.



The strong positive is that both nights I recognised the entry like clockwork! I saw it forming before my eyes. I got in and got and both times it moved 20 or so points fairly quickly and I got my stop to BE early too.

Being able to identify these sorts of trades with 40 or 50 point potential and only 5-8 points or risk will allow me to be a very profitable trades (once I get my trade management sorted).

There won't always be this potential but realised
- When the 20 point potential is there, set that as my target
- When the 50 point potential is there, set that as my target.


SHOULD have been 70-80 points better off this week.
I'm NOT.
Live. Learn. Do it better next time!

 

[kid hustlr]

Think you're being harsh on yourself tbh.

If your plan is to find an entry and go for 50 points then do that. enter and walk away.
If your plan is to look for set ups (both entry and exit) and actively trade, then do that.

I guess it depends on what your plan is for each specific trade?

You can't have it both ways though harry hindsight is always right.

 

[pavilion103]

The plan last night was 50 points. As it was the night before.

I didn't follow through with the plan.

I allowed myself to get emotional and changed my plan mid-trade.
I did this despite having done it the night before and berated myself for it.


A bad trade I can handle.
Doing 90% of the hard work and then not capitalising - I get more angry about that.

 

[kid hustlr]

The plan last night was 50 points. As it was the night before.

I didn't follow through with the plan.

I allowed myself to get emotional and changed my plan mid-trade.
I did this despite having done it the night before and berated myself for it.


A bad trade I can handle.
Doing 90% of the hard work and then not capitalising - I get more angry about that.

Yep fair enough.

But on Wednesday night when you took your 16 point profit on your short (or whatever it was), if that market had gone bid for and was trading a 100 points higher, would you be cursing yourself for taking the profit?

 

[pavilion103]

Yep fair enough.

But on Wednesday night when you took your 16 point profit on your short (or whatever it was), if that market had gone bid for and was trading a 100 points higher, would you be cursing yourself for taking the profit?

See, the reason that I don't see this as a hindsight thing is that I stated it BEFORE both trades.
I identified the top. Overall market looked bearish. Identified the profit potential. Had a plan. Didn't follow it.
I had to put myself in a position to capitalise on the POTENTIAL move.

In answer to your question:
I want to trade in the context of my analysis.
If I had been taken out at BE both nights then I would be disappointed that it didn't play out as expected, but I would be satisfied that I managed my trade in the context of my analysis and followed my plan and come away with no loss. That happens. It will happen many many times. It's part of trading. I wouldn't be cursing myself for it. I would have done everything right.

Doing what I did (twice in a row), however, went contrary to my market analysis, my trade analysis, my plan.
That is when I curse myself!

 

[pavilion103]

I liken the last two nights trading to a painter who has identified the colour he wants, bought the right paint, got the right brushes and rollers, painted the wall, given it a second coat, it looks great - job done and then just needs to let it dry.

But instead he comes back and starts touching the paint on the wall to see if it has dried and messes up the whole job!



You know, I'm loving this thread. It has almost been like a trading journal of the emotions of futures trading. I don't mind getting emotional AFTER a trade is done. I think it can reaffirm the good, reaffirm the bad and if it leads to strong analysis/contemplation, then hopefully improve trading.