The transition to Futures trading

[pavilion103]

Yeh. Unfortunately I won't be on tonight. I'll be on Monday and Tuesday.

We identified a potential high. We don't know if it is a big high yet though.

These chances do come around and it's important to be on a position to capitalise. I was in bed this time, not much more I could do other than place a longer term setup with a stop above the recent highs, but I'm not in a position to take that sort of risk!

Kid, all I know is that we are identifying these things, have good risk managements in our trades and not losing. It WILL all click in a big way at some point.

 

[CanOz]

I think we have an excess high in place, a near term top....Speaking specifically of the ES and the DAX.

 

[pavilion103]

Just got home. Not much range on the FTSE thus far.

If it stays like this it's looking bearish. Will want to get on Monday or Tuesday in case it comes off.

 

[pavilion103]

Holy Heck what just happened....

I was in a short. Got taken out at BE as it shot up then smashed down!!!

 

[CanOz]

Holy Heck what just happened....

I was in a short. Got taken out at BE as it shot up then smashed down!!!

Ummm, news Pav. Jobs data out.

Man, one of these days you're gonna get your account reamed out...

 

[kid hustlr]

Yeah might want to watch out for that mate. Need to be aware of the big stuff.

EDIT: As an aside, this is like the second time in the last 3 months where I've seen stops get run to the upside just prior to the figure. The S&P and the FTSE are slight examples of how it jumped but the bond markets show it better, just prior the figure the mkts jump then the number comes and rips to the downside.

I've often wondered about setting stops above below the mkt trying to trade data but its just so risky. Best to sit back I think.

 

[pavilion103]

I must have had up the wrong day for news announcements!

Maybe I didn't click on the "today" button.

Lucky I escaped.

 

[cynic]

The DAX is back!

It's just bled my accounts of 3,900 EUROs in a mere three weeks!

Good to see you're still with us DAX!

Now get ready for some serious payback!

 

[pavilion103]

The DAX is back! It's just bled my accounts of 3,900 EUROs in a mere three weeks! Good to see you're still with us DAX! Now get ready for some serious payback!

Ouch!

I don't think it's personal for the DAX though lol. I hear he loves making enemies.

 

[cynic]

Ouch!

I don't think it's personal for the DAX though lol. I hear he loves making enemies.

Given that three weeks ago those EUROs were all mine,mine MINE, I take it very personally indeed. In fact it's a whole 3900 EUROs worth of personal!

However, I do take your point about the DAX being an EOTT (Equal Opportunity Trader Thwarter) in that it treats all traders' efforts with equal contempt.

Upon further thought, somebody must have been on the winning side of my losing trades! (Tech/A have you been trading the DAX again? I want my EUROs back!)

 

[pavilion103]

I've posted some of my winners.
Here is one of my mistakes.
I've had a silly habit of moving my stops too tight.

My rule is get to BE ASAP. Then let it run.
I broke my rule here.

Identified a good setup. Got to BE ASAP.
DIDN'T LET IT RUN!!!!! Lesson learnt (hopefully)

 

[kid hustlr]

Duckman + Pav + others.

Any thoughts here??

done my best to give all the info required, effectively we slammed down hard then ripped back up.

Think any form of re-test now is an ideal long. Thoughts?



edit: srry tech I know u hate candles

 

[pavilion103]

Actually the entry was a little lower I just realised, but same principle.

I've definitely tried to "experiment" with too many types of setups recently. Fortunately I have become reasonably successful with my risk management and have managed to stop many trades at BE rather than a loss.

I'd love to gather my overall thoughts on lessons learnt from these past few months and then get feedback on whether people see things the same way.


Realising that it doesn't take many trades to make a good profit. Trades in low risk areas like the trade above seem to achieve a reasonably high accuracy, and providing the stop isn't moved too soon, have a good reward potential too many times.

 

[pavilion103]

Duckman + Pav + others.

Any thoughts here??

done my best to give all the info required, effectively we slammed down hard then ripped back up.

Think any form of re-test now is an ideal long. Thoughts?

View attachment 55230

edit: srry tech I know u hate candles

Kid, the main difficulty for me is I don't know that market well (at all). So my thoughts are only based on my observation of the FTSE.

When large stopping volume and support comes in at a previous significant support level, I look for the type of behavour we see in the trade I posted of last night. Price comes down and tests that area on low volume, with bullish bars closing in the top half. I also like a period of small consolidation. And then entry near the support area with a low risk to the initial stop.
But you already know all this. We discuss it often on Skype.

In short, if this was the FTSE (and provided the longer term chart confirms a potential support area), then I would in fact look for a lack of supply/testing of that high volume area. I guess it depends how strong you need that confirmation to be, but I think you know roughly what I look for.

 

[pavilion103]

TRADE 1 - Didn't take this one. Took it a bit further down on the channel break. Identified this in real time. Wish I took it. Just missed out.



TRADE 2 - Took this long. Got out with supply coming in. Happy to take profit on the table. Kid also identified this one and missed the track by 1 tick. Unlucky.

 

[pavilion103]

Something a bit different here.

Summary of results from the last week and a half.

I've really learnt the lesson of getting stop to BE and making sure my losing trades/days are very small in comparison to the winners. Doesn't take many decent trades to make a profit when trading like this.

This could be the last night I'm on before I go to India next Tuesday. I might be on Thursday depending on whether I catch up with a mate or not. If I'm not on, see you guys in 2-3 weeks!

 

[CanOz]

Don't forget your commissions Pav...may not be much but it's a good habit to get into....

Have a good trip, good luck in India....

 

[pavilion103]

Don't forget your commissions Pav...may not be much but it's a good habit to get into.... Have a good trip, good luck in India....

Thanks man.

That includes commissions. The total profit/loss at the end of each night commission inclusive.

 

[kid hustlr]

Learned a lot last night Pav.

One quick one, see the marked up chart. Could you go into a little more detail?



What made you so keen to get short in the first pattern and long in the second ( I have my views, just like to hear your thoughts)

EDIT: PM me if you don't want to clog up the thread

 

[pavilion103]

The short at the top that I posted was the original one that I wanted to get in. That was a good one imo. Filled the gap and struggled to push up.

The short of the channel that I ended up taking was not my preferred opportunity because it was not near a strong resistance level but it provided enough of an opportunity imo because:
1) The bar that made the low before the channel was not on HUGE volume. There was higher volume but it wasn't ultra high.
2) It then pushed up on incredibly low volume. Really struggled to move higher.
3) The area that it pushed up near was the low of the first bar of the day (obviosuly large volume).
4) The bar that it pushed up on into that area (the last bar before shorting) was an upthrust on low volume and signalled no demand to push higher.
5) It provided a reasonable risk on entry. I think maybe 5 points.

The negative for me is that it wasn't near major resistance and as pointed out in real timethe area of 6675 provided soe sort of a support, so risk to reward maybe not as high as I would have liked. However I saw 6675 as only a POSSIBLE support.

If this was taken near a resistance top I would have been very excited about this.

Make sense?