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The state of the economy at the street level

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yes i had a short ( for me ) but profitable stay in AWC and i worried about energy costs ( which are not taxed as emissions )

interestingly the NZ smelters are winding down... but they are mostly powered by hydro ( who would have guessed that )

so what happens next , an aluminum substitute found or or maybe all the smelters are moved to some impoverished slave state , like they did with most of the processing of our resources

i hope those dumbass workers that vote ALP and pay their union fees understand that ( their enemy is their coalition partner )

Germany is enjoying that now
 
divs4ever said:
yes i had a short ( for me ) but profitable stay in AWC and i worried about energy costs ( which are not taxed as emissions )

interestingly the NZ smelters are winding down... but they are mostly powered by hydro ( who would have guessed that )

so what happens next , an aluminum substitute found or or maybe all the smelters are moved to some impoverished slave state , like they did with most of the processing of our resources

i hope those dumbass workers that vote ALP and pay their union fees understand that ( their enemy is their coalition partner )

Germany is enjoying that now
Click to expand...
Yes more loaded raw ore in ship terminal to ensure all added value is sent abroad, a model which worked so well for PNG.
Dr Tim will be happy, no ugly smokestack in Moresby ..
 
With direct consequences to inflation and our energy grid
I quote from. AFR
www.afr.com

How new tax-base erosion laws could unwittingly crimp Australia

New OECD tax rules for multinationals are a good thing. But they don’t fit the investment risk profile of infrastructure projects in our wide brown land.
www.afr.com www.afr.com
"As Dr Ken You notes in his recent parliamentary research brief, Australia has seen a significant drop in its world competitiveness ranking, sliding from 4th in 2004 to 19th in 2023.

Our energy infrastructure has dropped from 21st to 52nd over the same period, and we are already being warned by the Australian Energy Market Operator to prepare for blackouts over the summer in at least two states as our electricity infrastructure ceases to be fit for purpose.
 
Something I have not seen discussed yet:
Most of you are probably unaware or could not care less about agriculture.
In the last few years, the BOM has moved from a science organisation to imho a propaganda machine pushing the global warming narrative.
They have retrospectively modified data related to temperature in the last couple of years to realign with global warming models which were failing..
Feel free to search that yourself , this is not conspiracy, facts
As a result I think, the refined forecast models built on real data in the previous decades are completely failing...
Now every 35c day in Qld or storm is marked as catastrophic, last year was one of the coldest winter and driest as a result in SEQld I have ever lived thru..30+ years but we were in a la Nina so not a word about that conflict in BOM reports.
This year bringing el Nino, farmers listening to BOM predictions have delayed planting, sold herds to get ready for a big drought event and are now under flooding water, roting crops
I know forecasting weather is not an exact science but the recent rain events in qld were predicted correctly in early November on the Higgins site and the Cornelius site while BOM was talking drought and high temperatures
And yes we have a monsoon and an extra fortnight of flooding ahead
Bom even missed the floods in FNQ when the cyclone died ..
This failure has had a tremendous costs not only for the nation but will bankrupt and bring misery to thousands of peoples.
Bring back the science!!!
 
qldfrog said:
Something I have not seen discussed yet:
Most of you are probably unaware or could not care less about agriculture.
In the last few years, the BOM has moved from a science organisation to imho a propaganda machine pushing the global warming narrative.
They have retrospectively modified data related to temperature in the last couple of years to realign with global warming models which were failing..
Feel free to search that yourself , this is not conspiracy, facts
As a result I think, the refined forecast models built on real data in the previous decades are completely failing...
Now every 35c day in Qld or storm is marked as catastrophic, last year was one of the coldest winter and driest as a result in SEQld I have ever lived thru..30+ years but we were in a la Nina so not a word about that conflict in BOM reports.
This year bringing el Nino, farmers listening to BOM predictions have delayed planting, sold herds to get ready for a big drought event and are now under flooding water, roting crops
I know forecasting weather is not an exact science but the recent rain events in qld were predicted correctly in early November on the Higgins site and the Cornelius site while BOM was talking drought and high temperatures
And yes we have a monsoon and an extra fortnight of flooding ahead
Bom even missed the floods in FNQ when the cyclone died ..
This failure has had a tremendous costs not only for the nation but will bankrupt and bring misery to thousands of peoples.
Bring back the science!!!
Click to expand...
i have become more aware of agriculture recently , but being a longtime arthritis sufferer i have trusted 'my bones ' much more than the BoM , for decades , i also noted that even when a school student/paper-boy i could interpret a barometric chart with better precision than the professionals ( on no more than grade 9/10 geography teachings ) and the latest Courier Mail weather section of the current morning

just another example of scientists selling out to an agenda , we may as well go back to witchcraft where the old crony is only out to make ends meet , not to help control an empire

PS i also note on casual glances on the weather forecasts of days of 'extreme UV' ( on cloudy days of 35 C or more ) are they in cahoots will the sunscreen industry as well

( i thought all the pollution was supposed to block out the sun but trap the heat )
 
qldfrog said:
Something I have not seen discussed yet:
Most of you are probably unaware or could not care less about agriculture.
In the last few years, the BOM has moved from a science organisation to imho a propaganda machine pushing the global warming narrative.
They have retrospectively modified data related to temperature in the last couple of years to realign with global warming models which were failing..
Feel free to search that yourself , this is not conspiracy, facts
As a result I think, the refined forecast models built on real data in the previous decades are completely failing...
Now every 35c day in Qld or storm is marked as catastrophic, last year was one of the coldest winter and driest as a result in SEQld I have ever lived thru..30+ years but we were in a la Nina so not a word about that conflict in BOM reports.
This year bringing el Nino, farmers listening to BOM predictions have delayed planting, sold herds to get ready for a big drought event and are now under flooding water, roting crops
I know forecasting weather is not an exact science but the recent rain events in qld were predicted correctly in early November on the Higgins site and the Cornelius site while BOM was talking drought and high temperatures
And yes we have a monsoon and an extra fortnight of flooding ahead
Bom even missed the floods in FNQ when the cyclone died ..
This failure has had a tremendous costs not only for the nation but will bankrupt and bring misery to thousands of peoples.
Bring back the science!!!
Click to expand...
Bang on spot on. BOM as useful as t1ts on a bull
 
qldfrog said:
In the last few years, the BOM has moved from a science organisation to imho a propaganda machine pushing the global warming narrative.
They have retrospectively modified data related to temperature in the last couple of years to realign with global warming models which were failing..
Click to expand...

This wouldn't have something to do with the adjustment of the data by any chance, would it?

theconversation.com

Why scientists adjust temperature records, and how you can too

An article in The Australian today has once again raised the question of why scientists, in trying to estimate how the global and regional surface temperatures of Earth may have changed over the past century…
theconversation.com theconversation.com
 
Belli said:
This wouldn't have something to do with the adjustment of the data by any chance, would it?

theconversation.com

Why scientists adjust temperature records, and how you can too

An article in The Australian today has once again raised the question of why scientists, in trying to estimate how the global and regional surface temperatures of Earth may have changed over the past century…
theconversation.com theconversation.com
Click to expand...
My feeling is that it is probably related but you would need in depth internal knowledge that I do not have.
And I suspect anyone in the know would not be able to talk.
It could be seen as PS bashing but I also somewhat believe that the amount of available resources for the Christmas new year period might be somewhat reduced for short term forecasts (tomorrow).
The later not explaining the 3 month forecast disaster.
The later being probably the most expensive economically.
 
qldfrog said:
My feeling is that it is probably related but you would need in depth internal knowledge that I do not have.
And I suspect anyone in the know would not be able to talk.
It could be seen as PS bashing but I also somewhat believe that the amount of available resources for the Christmas new year period might be somewhat reduced for short term forecasts (tomorrow).
The later not explaining the 3 month forecast disaster.
The later being probably the most expensive economically.
Click to expand...

Yes. I read it and it started me thinking of situations such as if for some reason you wanted to measure humidity and had the equipment at the bottom of a shaded gully for a long period then moved it to the top of the bank I was assuming you would need to adjust the data to take account of that.

That is when I started searching and found the article. There would be more but I didn't bother to go further.
 
Belli said:
Yes. I read it and it started me thinking of situations such as if for some reason you wanted to measure humidity and had the equipment at the bottom of a shaded gully for a long period then moved it to the top of the bank I was assuming you would need to adjust the data to take account of that.

That is when I started searching and found the article. There would be more but I didn't bother to go further.
Click to expand...
There are some obvious and legitimate corrections to be done, no issue there
I do not trust this to be the case at BOM nor the fact that these corrections were sudden and massive until we managed to match a previously failing model estimates
Then even if these corrections are legitimate, and outside the GW debate, the models are built and refined on past data, once the data changes..even if it were to be more trustful, you actually destroy the existing model accuracy and trusted legacy
and these models are far too complex to be easily updated/corrected , remember that since the GW...craze... It is not only the Australian data but also world data which are modified not to say twisted.
If the sea surface temperature needs to be increased to match a narrative, Boom... here pops a new potentially fake el Nino resulting in a el Nino with floods and above average rainfall.
something we used to call la Nina in the "world before"
Sadly the grass growth, germination etc do not follow narratives...
Anyway, how problems with weather forecasts ends up costing us billions of real economic benefits.
Next....
 
qldfrog said:
My feeling is that it is probably related but you would need in depth internal knowledge that I do not have.
And I suspect anyone in the know would not be able to talk.
It could be seen as PS bashing but I also somewhat believe that the amount of available resources for the Christmas new year period might be somewhat reduced for short term forecasts (tomorrow).
The later not explaining the 3 month forecast disaster.
The later being probably the most expensive economically.
Click to expand...
UQ have a dedicated super-computer ( cluster ) dedicated to climate science ( i know because i have cleaned it )

that was a lot of power being consumed for something that is regularly incorrect

who knows how many other states/universities have similar computer clusters , dedicated to the same branch of 'science )
 
Belli said:
Yes. I read it and it started me thinking of situations such as if for some reason you wanted to measure humidity and had the equipment at the bottom of a shaded gully for a long period then moved it to the top of the bank I was assuming you would need to adjust the data to take account of that.
Click to expand...
Agreed but the ideal would be to not move it at all.

Plus if any adjustment is to be made, the original data should be retained unmodified with clear marking as to which is which.

That said, I think this is the wrong thread to discuss it in..... ;)
 
From Evil Murdoch press
Construction-related businesses accounted for more than one in every four company failures over the past half year and now insolvency experts fear the hospitality sector could face increasing pressure in the next few months.
The number of company collapses rose to 6626 for the almost six months from July 1 to December 24 – a 37 per cent spike from 4840 in the previous December half, according to the latest data from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission released this week.

The pain was felt most in the building sector with 1810 construction-related businesses failing over the half year, representing roughly 27 per cent of all collapses. In percentage terms that was in line with the previous December half when 1334 construction-related businesses tanked.

Accommodation and food services was the second biggest category of casualties, with 909 businesses shutting up shop in the six months, up a sharp 63 per cent from the previous December half, while 432 retailers pulled down the shutters, up 36 per cent from 317 in the previous December half year.

WCT Advisory managing partner Andrew Weatherley believed the food industry would come under substantial pressure once the busy summer holiday trading period ended.

“At the moment, there seems to be a general positive feel in those industries, but I expect spending is at lower levels than 2022 given the increase in cost of living and interest rates,” he said.
Click to expand...
NSW is the toughest state to do business base on the failure rate, and has had the biggest increase in bankruptcies compared to other states.
Mick

1705098763507.png
 
mullokintyre said:
From Evil Murdoch press

NSW is the toughest state to do business base on the failure rate, and has had the biggest increase in bankruptcies compared to other states.
Mick

View attachment 168782
Click to expand...
hmmm ! as much as i dislike Sydney ( a little more forgiving on the rest of the state )

there seems to be an obvious agenda in the data

NSW is a big state population-wise and at least until recently was the preferred headquarters of companies aspiring to be ' nation-wide '

one might suspect NSW has more businesses registered in the state than most of the others
 
sptrawler said:
Unfortunately there are quite a few mine closures on the horizon in W.A.
It looks like one of those slowdown cycles, that happen in mining.
Click to expand...
am mildly surprised the slow-down has taken so long to occur

i will be watching for increased M&A in the mining sector , to signal 'the consolidation phase '

but yes rising costs ( for various reasons ) has been a concern of mine since 2020
 

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