The future of Australian property prices

[greggles]

Who is the real enemy?

Why does there have to be an enemy? If anything, the enemy is circumstance. The property market is what it is. The moment people stop paying the prices vendors are asking is the moment prices will start to decline.

 

[over9k]

Why does there have to be an enemy? If anything, the enemy is circumstance. The property market is what it is. The moment people stop paying the prices vendors are asking is the moment prices will start to decline.

Do you actually think that the current state of the housing market is some kind of accident/unintended side effect?

 

[sptrawler]

Who is the real enemy?

These days, pretty much anybody, that gets in the way of what you want.

 

[greggles]

Do you actually think that the current state of the housing market is some kind of accident/unintended side effect?

Like all markets, the primary driving force in the property market is supply and demand. If buyers want to pay the asking price for an asset, a sale will occur. If buyers do not want to pay the asking price for an asset, sellers will eventually lower their asking price and prices will decline.

Buyers have never had interest rates this low before. This easy access to finance coupled with limited supply in certain desireable areas is currently driving prices up in a lot of areas, but not all. You don't have to buy a $1 million house. Much cheaper houses are available in outlying areas in most capital cities. Here's a three bedroom house on 665 m² in Ipswich, west of Brisbane, for sale for offers over $279,000. There are many more in the same price range. I'm sure you can find the same in Adelaide and Perth, although probably not in Sydney or Melbourne.

The point is, if you want to get into the current property market and you don't have a huge income or $1 million then compromise is the name of the game, not complaining or looking for "enemies" to blame.

 

[Mrmagoo]

This is not true, the primary driving force is government policy. As soon as the ALP gets in there is a real risk they will do things to crash/cool the market. You're a loser if you didn't get into the market by this point, no matter what you do from here on you will lose.

 

[Mrmagoo]

Houses in cheap areas are already pushing a million it is basically over. The bulls won. A million will get you a modest home in an outer suburb. I don't care what "cheaper" houses are out there, a very, very modest home in a very basic suburb is a million. That's your price point.

 

[greggles]

This is not true, the primary driving force is government policy. As soon as the ALP gets in there is a real risk they will do things to crash/cool the market. You're a loser if you didn't get into the market by this point, no matter what you do from here on you will lose.

Labor will not crash or cool the property market. They will simply introduce new incentives or grants. There are no votes or political future in destroying the property market in Australia through government intervention. It will not happen.

Houses in cheap areas are already pushing a million it is basically over. The bulls won. A million will get you a modest home in an outer suburb. I don't care what "cheaper" houses are out there, a very, very modest home in a very basic suburb is a million. That's your price point.

This is demonstrably incorrect in every city except maybe Sydney. In Brisbane a million will still get you a nice house five or six kms from the CDB. If you go 15 kms out you can get set for $500,000-$600,000. Further out you can get a house for under $300,000 and still be on a direct train line to the city with a one hour commute each way.

 

[over9k]

These days, pretty much anybody, that gets in the way of what you want.

Like all markets, the primary driving force in the property market is supply and demand. If buyers want to pay the asking price for an asset, a sale will occur. If buyers do not want to pay the asking price for an asset, sellers will eventually lower their asking price and prices will decline.

Buyers have never had interest rates this low before. This easy access to finance coupled with limited supply in certain desireable areas is currently driving prices up in a lot of areas, but not all. You don't have to buy a $1 million house. Much cheaper houses are available in outlying areas in most capital cities. Here's a three bedroom house on 665 m² in Ipswich, west of Brisbane, for sale for offers over $279,000. There are many more in the same price range. I'm sure you can find the same in Adelaide and Perth, although probably not in Sydney or Melbourne.

The point is, if you want to get into the current property market and you don't have a huge income or $1 million then compromise is the name of the game, not complaining or looking for "enemies" to blame.

Right so we weren't talking about what best to do from here, we were talking about where to point the finger. Additionally, they aren't mutual exclusives - one can go about whatever advice you suggest whilst also pointing a finger.


For example, do you happen to notice any correlations here:



Say, right around 99/00?



You're right, it's a simple question of supply & demand, and the demand is completely artificial/as a result of government policy. So again, I ask you, do you think that this is an accident/unintended side effect?

Or do you think that every politician in the country bar two owning an investment property might have some kind of effect on the intentions of government policy?

 

[Humid]

More than 2 cities in Australia last time I looked
Heres a job....and your house 25 minutes to the city 5 to the beach

 

[sptrawler]

Right so we weren't talking about what best to do from here, we were talking about where to point the finger. Additionally, they aren't mutual exclusives - one can go about whatever advice you suggest whilst also pointing a finger.


For example, do you happen to notice any correlations here:

View attachment 125981View attachment 125979View attachment 125980

Say, right around 99/00?



You're right, it's a simple question of supply & demand, and the demand is completely artificial/as a result of government policy. So again, I ask you, do you think that this is an accident/unintended side effect?

Or do you think that every politician in the country bar two owning an investment property might have some kind of effect on the intentions of government policy?

The thing is, it happens in every Country, try buying in or around London, NY, any major city in the world.
It doesn't just happen in Sydney, Melbourne, the thing is if someone really wants to live there they have to compete with the other buyers in the market.
If they can't compete, they either have to look elsewhere, or come up with a way to be able to compete.
If the house prices in Sydney halved, you would get twice as many buyers and the prices would skyrocket again.
With regard population, Australia has a negative birth rate, because as affluence increases the amount of children people are prepared to have drops, as China is finding out, so migrants are required.

There is no easy answer.

 

[over9k]

The thing is, it happens in every Country, try buying in or around London, NY, any major city in the world.
It doesn't just happen in Sydney, Melbourne, the thing is if someone really wants to live there they have to compete with the other buyers in the market.
If they can't compete, they either have to look elsewhere, or come up with a way to be able to compete.
If the house prices in Sydney halved, you would get twice as many buyers and the prices would skyrocket again.
With regard population, Australia has a negative birth rate, because as affluence increases the amount of children people are prepared to have drops, as China is finding out, so migrants are required.

There is no easy answer.

What do you mean "it happens in every country"? Migration?

It doesn't have to.


And why would prices in sydney halve? Because there's less demand for housing for example? So people could thus get better places for their money?

There is a very simple answer: Close the borders, deport all non-citizens. Done.

 

[over9k]

More than 2 cities in Australia last time I looked
Heres a job....and your house 25 minutes to the city 5 to the beach

Pretty rich to tell me to just go & get one of these blue collar jobs after literally every single boomer/elder I ever spoke to in my teens told me to go to university.

You pushed an entire generation into university, we then get out, tell you we can't afford a house because our degree didn't exactly do a great deal for us, and you then respond by going "see that's your silly/lazy fault, you should have done a trade".

It's truly astounding.

 

[greggles]

Right so we weren't talking about what best to do from here, we were talking about where to point the finger. Additionally, they aren't mutual exclusives - one can go about whatever advice you suggest whilst also pointing a finger.


For example, do you happen to notice any correlations here:

View attachment 125981View attachment 125979View attachment 125980

Say, right around 99/00?



You're right, it's a simple question of supply & demand, and the demand is completely artificial/as a result of government policy. So again, I ask you, do you think that this is an accident/unintended side effect?

Or do you think that every politician in the country bar two owning an investment property might have some kind of effect on the intentions of government policy?

You can't exclude investors from the property market. Australia has had negative gearing for decades and we have still had long periods of flat and declining property prices such as the late 70s, late 80s and mid-90s. Yes, increased migration has also increased demand for property, no question about it. However, migration is currently down due to COVID but property prices are still going up (in some areas).

The big problem that nobody seems to want to talk about is the desire to live in state capitals and close to the CBD. There is only so much housing in these areas due to the size of residential properties. There's not many places in the world where you have houses on 750 m² of land a few kilometres from the city centre. Most places in the world are far more decentralised and have more population centres. Australia only has huge cities and small towns. We could use more small cities between 500,000 and one million people. There's no shortage of land in this country.

@over9k - are you trying to get into the property market? If so, what city do you live in?

 

[over9k]

You can't exclude investors from the property market. Australia has had negative gearing for decades and we have still had long periods of flat and declining property prices such as the late 70s, late 80s and mid-90s. Yes, increased migration has also increased demand for property, no question about it. However, migration is currently down due to COVID but property prices are still going up (in some areas).

The big problem that nobody seems to want to talk about is the desire to live in state capitals and close to the CBD. There is only so much housing in these areas due to the size of residential properties. There's not many places in the world where you have houses on 750 m² of land a few kilometres from the city centre. Most places in the world are far more decentralised and have more population centres. Australia only has huge cities and small towns. We could use more small cities between 500,000 and one million people. There's no shortage of land in this country.

@over9k - are you trying to get into the property market? If so, what city do you live in?

Prices and affordability are not the same thing.

C'mon dude, the problem is CLEARLY immigration. I'll ask this a third time, do you think the current state of affairs to be an accident?

I have a house. Not the kind of place I should and not where I should either, but I have one.

 

[Humid]

Pretty rich to tell me to just go & get one of these blue collar jobs after literally every single boomer/elder I ever spoke to in my teens told me to go to university.

You pushed an entire generation into university, we then get out, tell you we can't afford a house because our degree didn't exactly do a great deal for us, and you then respond by going "see that's your silly/lazy fault, you should have done a trade".

It's truly astounding.

If you read all of that in that post you should go out more
Was showing eastern centric people other opportunities
I wasnt smart enough to go to uni lol

 

[greggles]

Prices and affordability are not the same thing.

C'mon dude, the problem is CLEARLY immigration. I'll ask this a third time, do you think the current state of affairs to be an accident?

I have a house. Not the kind of place I should and not where I should either, but I have one.

I'm not disputing that immigration has had an impact. But I can see what they're doing and why they're doing it. They're increasing the working age tax base to grow the economy. More working age people means a larger labour force, more consumers, more jobs and economic growth. With Boomers retiring you need more young taxpayers and Australians aren't having kids like they used to.

But I think the largest problem is the geographical problem I outlined above, but there is no easy solution to that problem.

 

[over9k]

I'm not disputing that immigration has had an impact. But I can see what they're doing and why they're doing it. They're increasing the working age tax base to grow the economy. More working age people means a larger labour force, more consumers, more jobs and economic growth. With Boomers retiring you need more young taxpayers and Australians aren't having kids like they used to.

But I think the largest problem is the geographical problem I outlined above, but there is no easy solution to that problem.

Urbanisation etc was occurring long before 2000.

 

[wayneL]

Where do y'all reckon central banks and the debt market fit into this?

Maybe that's the hidden enemy?

 

[sptrawler]

Pretty rich to tell me to just go & get one of these blue collar jobs after literally every single boomer/elder I ever spoke to in my teens told me to go to university.

You pushed an entire generation into university, we then get out, tell you we can't afford a house because our degree didn't exactly do a great deal for us, and you then respond by going "see that's your silly/lazy fault, you should have done a trade".

It's truly astounding.

That is very true, it was the craziest bit of social engineering ever done, closing down manufacturing increasing mining and making everyone get degree.
What a disaster, then having to import trades from overseas, while those with a degree fight for barista's jobs, an absolute tragedy IMO.
By the way non of my kids went to uni.

 

[greggles]

Urbanisation etc was occurring long before 2000.

So has migration. But the urbanisation problem has gotten worse as the population in capital cities has increased. Yes, a big contributor to that has been immigration. We have had more than 3 million net migration in the last 15 years. If we had a more decentralised population the impact on property prices would have been much less. My personal view is that they shouldn't have been permitted to all settle in capital cities. No reason why many couldn't have migrated to regional centres.