The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

Where do y'all reckon central banks and the debt market fit into this?

Maybe that's the hidden enemy?

I read that inflation in the U.S is 5%, so the ship may be turning at last?

 

[sptrawler]

So has migration. But the urbanisation problem has gotten worse as the population in capital cities has increased. Yes, a big contributor to that has been immigration. We have had about 3.4 million net migration in the last 15 years. If we had a more decentralised population the impact on property prices would have been much less. My personal view is that they shouldn't have been permitted to all settle in capital cities. No reason why many couldn't have migrated to regional centres.

The other thing that has had a major effect, is the cost of air travel, it has reduced to the point that workers can live where ever they like.
Not only has this decimated country towns, it has caused prices in cities to climb, through increased demand.

 

[greggles]

Where do y'all reckon central banks and the debt market fit into this?

Maybe that's the hidden enemy?

I don't know too much about this. Do you have something you can point me to (video or website) with more info?

 

[againsthegrain]

I read that inflation in the U.S is 5%, so the ship may be turning at last?

www.wsj.com/amp/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-may-2021-11623288303

still being downplayed as temporary, see what happens

 

[Smurf1976]

Who is the real enemy?

In the context of those wanting affordable housing:

Government.

They created much of the situation themselves and allow central banks, retail banks and developers to do the rest.

 

[sptrawler]

In the context of those wanting affordable housing:

Government.

They created much of the situation themselves and allow central banks, retail banks and developers to do the rest.

Putting public housing out to the private sector, with negative gearing assistance, was the thin edge of the wedge IMO.
Another example of privatisation gone wrong.

 

[MovingAverage]

Muppets, I bet you didn't buy there Humid.
Crazy stuff.

The Betoota Advocate is not a real media outlet. It just takes the piss.

 

[againsthegrain]

Hey this is a half serious post but I actually liked everything better in the 90s, as a response to the argument housing was cheaper but other things weren't as good as now
- cars were better
- tv shows were better (yes tvs were smaller but somehow we saw it just fine)
- not having a mobile phone was maybe better in hindsight (less distractions)
- houses were cheaper, built and designed better (personal preference)
- political correctness wasn't as stupid and aggressive as it is now
- there was more time for family time
- schools and universities were more sensible and cheaper
- interest rates were fairer

Anyway I was a teenager so I'm sure everything was better for that reason.

p.s what happened to robots? he was big when I joined up here.. professor robots as he called himself

 

[MovingAverage]

Hey this is a half serious post but I actually liked everything better in the 90s, as a response to the argument housing was cheaper but other things weren't as good as now
- cars were better

Hell yeah...the 90s produced some of the best super cars. I really miss that era of cars

 

[sptrawler]

The Betoota Advocate is not a real media outlet. It just takes the piss.

That figures, coming from Humid, at least you get laugh with him. ?
Sucked me in.

 

[sptrawler]

Hey this is a half serious post but I actually liked everything better in the 90s, as a response to the argument housing was cheaper but other things weren't as good as now
- cars were better
- tv shows were better (yes tvs were smaller but somehow we saw it just fine)
- not having a mobile phone was maybe better in hindsight (less distractions)
- houses were cheaper, built and designed better (personal preference)
- political correctness wasn't as stupid and aggressive as it is now
- there was more time for family time
- schools and universities were more sensible and cheaper
- interest rates were fairer

Anyway I was a teenager so I'm sure everything was better for that reason.

p.s what happened to robots? he was big when I joined up here.. professor robots as he called himself

I grew up in the 70's and 80's, as you say everything is different, there was very few consumer goods to buy, now the problem is there is too much choice.
Housing was cheaper as a percentage of wages but in the 70's you had to have 25% deposit and the top tax rate was 60% at $35k. I know my Dad and Mum didn't buy their first house until they were in their 40's.
My first house was a 30 year old weatherboard and tile, chopped in half and transported 200klm, then re stumped.
With political correctness, I think it will actually cause more problems than it solves, people were usually called names and type cast because of a certain trait.
By coping a bit of crap because of that trait, it actually changed perceptions and made people integrate, by being able to laugh at it.
Now political correctness, drives the comments underground IMO, and people don't learn how to laugh at it, because it isn't in the open.
Strange times ATM in my opinion, they are trying to make everyone the same, but not everyone is the same, so it actually warns those with weird and destructive thoughts to keep them to themselves, which IMO isn't good because the only time you find out about the weirdo, is when the weirdo does something weird, not before. In the 'old days' everyone said watch out for so and so they are a weird sod.?
But probably off topic.

 

[MovingAverage]

This is not true, the primary driving force is government policy. As soon as the ALP gets in there is a real risk they will do things to crash/cool the market. You're a loser if you didn't get into the market by this point, no matter what you do from here on you will lose.

I’m not so sure about that. The ALP has has several opportunities to change some of the fundamentals of the housing market to address the issues they continually point the finger. But guess what, the ALP has changed nothing despite having had the opportunity to do so. They’re full of hot air and deep down I think they know that interfering in the housing market is likely to have far reaching implications to the broader economy. What the ALP say and what the ALP do are two very different things

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Family Lives The New Australian Dream Of Barely Being Able To Pay Mortgage On Yardless Display Home

More to come.

www.betootaadvocate.com

Boomered lol

It's satire.

 

[MovingAverage]

Do you actually think that the current state of the housing market is some kind of accident/unintended side effect?

Yes

 

[MovingAverage]

I'm not disputing that immigration has had an impact.

Really? Immigration has pretty much ceased since Covid yet here we are seeing record prices

 

[MovingAverage]

www.wsj.com/amp/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-may-2021-11623288303

still being downplayed as temporary, see what happens

Yup....for all those out there with million dollar plus mortgages...inflation is coming...your mortgage repayments are about to get seriously painful

 

[over9k]

So has migration. But the urbanisation problem has gotten worse as the population in capital cities has increased. Yes, a big contributor to that has been immigration. We have had more than 3 million net migration in the last 15 years. If we had a more decentralised population the impact on property prices would have been much less. My personal view is that they shouldn't have been permitted to all settle in capital cities. No reason why many couldn't have migrated to regional centres.

I grew up in a regional centre. I had to move to an expensive city precisely to get work. That's the problem - no work where it's cheap, or housing is so expensive where there is work that you're being bled dry by rent, bills etc etc and saving nothing anyway. It's a no-win situation.

Migration has increased the supply of labour whilst also increasing the demand for housing, so housing skyrockets whilst wages get pushed down to nothing. We have downwards pressure on wages and upwards pressure on housing at the same time.

Again, this is not an accident.

Yes

Then you're a fool.

Really? Immigration has pretty much ceased since Covid yet here we are seeing record prices

Prices and affordability are not the same thing. Prices are dictated by interest rates. Affordability is dictated by supply & demand.

 

[over9k]

In the context of those wanting affordable housing:

Government.

They created much of the situation themselves and allow central banks, retail banks and developers to do the rest.

And who elects the government on what policies/sales pitch?

In John Howard's immortal words:

"Nobody's ever complained to be about their house price going up".

 

[MovingAverage]

Then you're a fool.

that response coming from you is no surprise.

 

[Mrmagoo]

That is very true, it was the craziest bit of social engineering ever done, closing down manufacturing increasing mining and making everyone get degree.
What a disaster, then having to import trades from overseas, while those with a degree fight for barista's jobs, an absolute tragedy IMO.
By the way non of my kids went to uni.

Yet the white collar job market pays well despite have every single thing going against it. Trades pay a lot more, but can you imagine if the kids who go to uni went to TAFE instead ? Trades would pay min wage.