The future of Australian property prices

[over9k]

Certainly true in my trade.

I've just moved home to Western Australia, my last move. I expected to be twiddling my thumbs for 2 or 3 months but I have been absolutely inundated with work in the first 5 weeks, due to an absolute shortage of qualified tradesmen in my field.

Guys are finding it impossible to get apprentices. We are pretty well paid but the work is hard and our clients are generally freaking nuts in some way... Easier to sit in an air conditioned Haulpak listening to country music up in Newman or somewhere.

Guys like me that can do specialised stuff can just name our price, because literally almost nobody can do it here.

The Gap has been filled in the past by 457 Poms, but they ain't happening now.

What's the trade & how much are you paying the apprentices?

 

[Smurf1976]

I think the way this conversation has gone says rather a lot in itself really.

Universities, TAFE and so on. The housing crisis, and I do agree it is a crisis, is symptomatic of a much broader problem not confined to housing itself.

The only thing I think the younger ones miss, is the past also had problems. Different problems yes but don't kid yourself into thinking it was all just fine. There were some good things in the past, cheap housing is one of them, but there were some very definite problems that the older half is all too aware of and wouldn't wish on anyone.

Back to house prices specifically well I question how it's really going to go much higher?

Immigration has fallen in a heap and population is a definite driver of the requirement for housing.

Meanwhile the amount of building work going on means supply is being ramped up.

Interest rates can't realistically go any lower.

Etc.

 

[MovingAverage]

I think the way this conversation has gone says rather a lot in itself really.

Universities, TAFE and so on. The housing crisis, and I do agree it is a crisis, is symptomatic of a much broader problem not confined to housing itself.

The only thing I think the younger ones miss, is the past also had problems. Different problems yes but don't kid yourself into thinking it was all just fine. There were some good things in the past, cheap housing is one of them, but there were some very definite problems that the older half is all too aware of and wouldn't wish on anyone.

Back to house prices specifically well I question how it's really going to go much higher?

Immigration has fallen in a heap and population is a definite driver of the requirement for housing.

Meanwhile the amount of building work going on means supply is being ramped up.

Interest rates can't realistically go any lower.

Etc.

I think one thing that is often overlooked when comparing houses prices from decades ago to current day prices—is that I vividly remember when my parents were seeking out their first home loan in the early 70s it was extraordinary difficult for most people to get a home loan from a bank. The banks’ approach to loans and monetary policy in general was extremely tight and you had to jump through a lot of hoops to get a loan and the rejection rate was very high. Relative to back then—it is just so easy for people to get loans these days. Downside of that is that there is far more cheap money floating around which is driving prices up. Is this not the result of decades of government deregulation, easing of monetary policies and generally winding back government influence and letting the market decide it’s own course?

 

[gartley]

We've seen massive, unprecedented inflation for 22 years running now, we've just seen it in something that isn't counted in the metric: Housing.

Hence why housing can (will... has) go stratospheric and the central bank does nothing. Which is exactly what has happened.

Only NZ is even so much as acknowledging this, which of course begs the question of whether it's an accident or not


Fact is that there's only two politicians in the country that don't own an investment property. Two. That should really tell you everything you need to know reference what is going to happen/continue to happen to house prices.

Interestingly appreciations in stocks and property have coincided with declining IR in the last 40 years. This amongst all drivers especially in property this is the most significant one.
As for the property markets going to the stratosphere, since 2017 it has not. Sure we have good thrust the last 6 months but this came off a decline and the MSM rants have made it sound bigger than what it is. ( They don't talk about the earlier decline much)
In reality since 2017 this market has made multiple false break highs only to retreat.
Looking at median prices today they are not much higher than the peak of 2017 and no doubt this will end up being being another false break high ( probably the final one) as IR reversal picks up steam and catches the FOMO buyers out.

 

[wayneL]

What's the trade & how much are you paying the apprentices?

I'm a farrier. Don't know what farrier apprentices get paid as I don't have them, but someone coming out of their time could easily earn over 100k.

 

[dyna]

This from today's AFR.

ATO's latest numbers of negative gearers [ for financial year 2018-19 ]

931,132 with 1 negatively geared property
250,035 with 2
74,955 with 3
26,719 with 4
10,935 with 5
11,226 with 6

Due mainly to the lower interest rates on their I.P. loans,there were 19,113 fewer negatively geared landlords than the previous year. That still leaves 1.3 million of them declaring a net rental loss in 2018-19. All up, 2.2 million Aussie taxpayers own at least one I.P.
Bound to be quite a few pollies in those numbers,for sure.

 

[MovingAverage]

Some interesting charts from the AIHW (which is a Fed Gov department) website based on census info. Like all these types of charts it is pretty issue to come to an incorrect conclusion without digging into the data behind the chart. But my initial thoughts on these charts are:

The below chart shows a similar trend in the rate of growth of owners with a mortgage and renters with a private landlord. I would have thought (and I may be wrong) that if there was a broad based housing affordability "crisis" then the growth rate of owners with a mortgage would not be trending up as shown, but would be trending down or at least flat and be opposite to the up trend of the renter with a private landlord. Interesting the delta between owners with a mortgage and renters with a private landlord has been rough the same across the entire period of 1994 through to 2018.

It is interesting to note that downward trend of owners without a mortgage--perhaps we are a nation of folks busting to pay of their mortgages.



The chart below shows ownership rate by birth dates. Yes it would seem younger generations have a lower ownership rate, but the gap is not as great as I would have thought.



Finally, the chart below shows the percentage of households across several age groups in private rental. It would appear that all age groups are see similar increases in the percentage of households in rental accommodation. Is it fair to assume from this chart that housing affordability has been impacting all age groups?



If you're interested in digging further into this data you can visit the AIHW website here: https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/home-ownership-and-housing-tenure

 

[Smurf1976]

It is interesting to note that downward trend of owners without a mortgage

I don't think that's only due to ability to repay it but also an intentional choice not to.

How true it all is I don't know, but the media's outright full of "withdrawing equity" type thinking and the idea of doing whatever it takes to get the mortgage paid off, then being very sure to never borrow money again, seems decidedly old fashioned.

On that one I'm happy to be labelled as old fashioned.

If the choice is a modest house owned outright versus a McMansion with a mortgage, I'll take the modest one owned outright no question.

 

[Smurf1976]

It's not the greatest house in the world I acknowledge that, but paying almost $1 million for a place with the intent of turning it into rubble?

Felixstow property fetches huge price at auction following strong competition - realestate.com.au

Most of the hopeful buyers interested in this dated house wanted it just to knock it down. That didn’t stop them from making high bids at auction though.

www.realestate.com.au

No doubt they're making money out of it but it's a strange situation in my view when the building itself is seen as only worth knocking down.

House looks imperfect but good enough to me, I'd live in it. Just needs painting and so on. Many are too fussy in my view.....

My house is 1960's for the record. Partly renovated but still have the 1960's pink bathtub.

 

[over9k]

There's a line in the article:

“I think it was mainly the block people wanted as most people were looking at it (to build) two decent sized properties,” he said.

 

[wayneL]

It's not the greatest house in the world I acknowledge that, but paying almost $1 million for a place with the intent of turning it into rubble?

Felixstow property fetches huge price at auction following strong competition - realestate.com.au

Most of the hopeful buyers interested in this dated house wanted it just to knock it down. That didn’t stop them from making high bids at auction though.

www.realestate.com.au

No doubt they're making money out of it but it's a strange situation in my view when the building itself is seen as only worth knocking down.

House looks imperfect but good enough to me, I'd live in it. Just needs painting and so on. Many are too fussy in my view.....

My house is 1960's for the record. Partly renovated but still have the 1960's pink bathtub.

Agreed, it is nice to have some decent digs, but holy smokes, does it have to resemble the interior of Buckingham palace and maintained like a show home?

The most friendly place that we ever had was a 10 square 1950s fibro drivers cottage on 16 acres, which which was once part of the midland abattoirs holding paddocks.

It was a s**thole we made somewhat liveable by begging, borrowing and stealing decent second-hand stuff.

The back verandah used to always fall down when the Easterlies were blowing.

... But everybody dropped in all the time and weekend mornings invariably entailed navigating through overhung bodies and empty bottles of woobla (it was even an empty of Grange on the floor one morning lol)

But once we could afford The fairly big joint on acreage in Kalamunda, everything changed. Well, we hadn't changed but people's perception had. Suddenly everyone became rather stiff and worried about spilling red on the carpet.... And we only lived in about a third of the house anyway.

Our next digs are going to be humble and friendly. We want to be seen for our character, not the edifice that we have spent way too much money on creating.

We may not choose a place with a pink bath however

 

[Humid]

Family Lives The New Australian Dream Of Barely Being Able To Pay Mortgage On Yardless Display Home

More to come.

www.betootaadvocate.com

Boomered lol

 

[Warr87]

It's not the greatest house in the world I acknowledge that, but paying almost $1 million for a place with the intent of turning it into rubble?

Felixstow property fetches huge price at auction following strong competition - realestate.com.au

Most of the hopeful buyers interested in this dated house wanted it just to knock it down. That didn’t stop them from making high bids at auction though.

www.realestate.com.au

No doubt they're making money out of it but it's a strange situation in my view when the building itself is seen as only worth knocking down.

House looks imperfect but good enough to me, I'd live in it. Just needs painting and so on. Many are too fussy in my view.....

My house is 1960's for the record. Partly renovated but still have the 1960's pink bathtub.

my area is mixed with newer buildings (appartments or townhouses) and the rest older houses like that one. I like those older house, they're still standing. Much to be said, lol. Though with the house in the link I'd probably change the interior walls and update the kitchen. But otherwise fine haha.

 

[sptrawler]

Agreed, it is nice to have some decent digs, but holy smokes, does it have to resemble the interior of Buckingham palace and maintained like a show home?

The most friendly place that we ever had was a 10 square 1950s fibro drivers cottage on 16 acres, which which was once part of the midland abattoirs holding paddocks.

It was a s**thole we made somewhat liveable by begging, borrowing and stealing decent second-hand stuff.

The back verandah used to always fall down when the Easterlies were blowing.

... But everybody dropped in all the time and weekend mornings invariably entailed navigating through overhung bodies and empty bottles of woobla (it was even an empty of Grange on the floor one morning lol)

But once we could afford The fairly big joint on acreage in Kalamunda, everything changed. Well, we hadn't changed but people's perception had. Suddenly everyone became rather stiff and worried about spilling red on the carpet.... And we only lived in about a third of the house anyway.

Our next digs are going to be humble and friendly. We want to be seen for our character, not the edifice that we have spent way too much money on creating.

We may not choose a place with a pink bath however

This is the problem today IMO, too many see their PPR as an investment, in reality it isnt, it is the place that keeps the weather off your $hit.
An investment is something you can buy and sell, without it affecting your living standard.
Like my mum used to say, the kids dont remember what the carpet or curtains were like, the just remember whether it was a happy family.
You buy a house, work like hell get home grumpy, then sell the house, buy another one get home even more grumpy with more debt and so it goes on.
Then at the end you sell it to make some money to live on, meanwhile your kids think you were always a grumpy bar$tard and cant wait for you to kick the bucket.lol
Or you get the other ones, who think that you are a prick and should be taxed to death, for your effort.lol
Best you just paddle your own canoe, help the kids when you can, but forget about the Joneses.

 

[sptrawler]

Family Lives The New Australian Dream Of Barely Being Able To Pay Mortgage On Yardless Display Home

More to come.

www.betootaadvocate.com

Boomered lol

Muppets, I bet you didn't buy there Humid.
Crazy stuff.

 

[sptrawler]

Here is the problem with the media demonising the boomers, they are flicking them the 'bird', why should they downsize?
They are critisised for having the property, they are penalised by the centrelink if they sell it, why wouldn't they just flick the 'bird'?
The whining kids on mega bucks driving around in their Ford rangers, bitching about the price of properties, when they are on $200k a year fifo.
Jeez it is about time, the boomers started to kick up.

Boomers fight back against calls to leave family home

There is a rebellion against the rising pressure for older people to downsize, with many seniors — dubbed anti-downsizers — refusing to let go of their large family homes.

thewest.com.au

Maybe if the fifo's stayed in their accommodation, rather than getting pizzed every night in the wet canteen, they could stop whining about how tough it is and save some money to buy a house?
I'm not saying they all do it, but many people who live in glass houses, shouldn't throw stones.

FIFO charged after shocking mine site rape allegation

A WA fly-in, fly-out worker has been charged over the alleged rape of a woman at a Pilbara mining camp.

www.perthnow.com.au

Paramedic: ‘Toxic FIFO sexism must end’

A whistleblower who raised the alarm about a culture of sexist bullying and harassment on Rio Tinto mine sites has spoken out after she was let go after making the report.

thewest.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

I really think, there is going to be a big backlash from boomers, the constant media demonising, is going to cause a huge amount of resentment.
Maybe that is the objective, who knows, but the losers will be the the ones who are complaining the most IMO.
It will be interesting, but talking to just normal boomers i know they are getting fed up with being criticised for being frugal, maybe the term spending the kids inheritance may come to fruition.
I hope they enjoy it.?

 

[Smurf1976]

I really think, there is going to be a big backlash from boomers, the constant media demonising, is going to cause a huge amount of resentment.

Replace the word "boomer" with a descriptive term for pretty much any other group and those saying it would be up in arms alleging all sorts of wrongdoing and rightly so. And yet when they're doing it themselves there's silence.

Sexism.

Racism.

Homophobia.

Ageism.

All from the same book of evil and all belong in the same place.

There's an issue with house prices I agree but targeting an entire generation is nothing more than the age old tactic of rallying the troops behind an identified target who isn't the real enemy. That one's as old as the hills and never solves the problem.

 

[Smurf1976]

Though with the house in the link I'd probably change the interior walls and update the kitchen. But otherwise fine haha.

Same here.

It just seems mighty strange to me that we've got a situation where people can't afford housing but at the same time we're knocking over perfectly good houses routinely.

Go for a wander around some parts of Adelaide and ~50 year old houses being knocked down is so common it's routine. It's not a rare event, there's a pretty constant stream of them.

First sign is usually a skip bin in the driveway then before you know it the place looks like a bomb's gone off, anything of value being removed, then the rest's cleared in the space of a day or at most two.

Then the block usually sits empty for ages before anything gets done with it.

Now my real point, and this is not a boast or anything like that but just an observation, is that if I look at people I know who I'd classify as reasonably wealthy well none of them lives in a house that resembles a palace. They're quite happy with ordinary sorts of houses and have better things to do than worry about that sort of thing.

Personally though, well I'm not top of the wealthy list but nonetheless I could probably do with a different colour scheme in the bathroom:



Pink bath, pink tiles. Guess what colour the floor is? Yep, that's pink too. The ceiling was also painted pink although I've changed that to a bland white.

Blue mat because that's the ones they had in the shop. The yellow ducks are the cat's by the way, not mine.

Cat standing up wants the water turned on.

 

[over9k]

Replace the word "boomer" with a descriptive term for pretty much any other group and those saying it would be up in arms alleging all sorts of wrongdoing and rightly so. And yet when they're doing it themselves there's silence.

Sexism.

Racism.

Homophobia.

Ageism.

All from the same book of evil and all belong in the same place.

There's an issue with house prices I agree but targeting an entire generation is nothing more than the age old tactic of rallying the troops behind an identified target who isn't the real enemy. That one's as old as the hills and never solves the problem.

Who is the real enemy?