The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

The big issue is the USD ending its refuge status.it could go very quickly.
Look at the swiss Franc.20y ago, you would have seen the Swiss franc in any currency chart.now gone and dusted..
If you have money and you have inflation you need a safe refuge, will not be the USD, or the Euro..
as Aussies,i suspect the USD fall will mirror the AUD.so we will have a problem
People will avoid staying in cash and will move to real assets: gold, land and for the small fry Real Estate.
But we will also see an exit of foreign investment RE here, and a smaller increase of interest rates..so not all rosy.
Add increase taxation, land tax, etc and pathetic returns for leasing.
I see PPOR ok, but not that great for commercial or IP.
So in my opinion price will stagnate after inflation is taken into account, and for pure ip, industrial, fall..
Talking 3y ahead

I think you are generally right but, you haven't joined the dots.
The Swiss Franc dusted, the U.S reserve currency failing, so what is next?

 

[over9k]

Well that does beg the question, why don't you buy a house, if Sydney is unaffordable, relocate to somewhere that is.
Obviously if this trend is going to just keep going, you have to catch the trend, everywhere will go up and wages will go up and prices will go up.
So if you don't mind me asking, what is your plan?

Inflation does not measure wage growth either. It measures the cost of food, and consumer goods, which are almost entirely made overseas (china) now - like the jobs as well.

You can't relocate if there isn't any employment, can you?

 

[sptrawler]

Inflation does not measure wage growth either. It measures the cost of food, and consumer goods, which are almost entirely made overseas (china) now - like the jobs as well.

You can't relocate if there isn't any employment, can you?

Well I guess it depends what you do, but most jobs and services are the same in all Capital cities.
High paid mining jobs are either in Perth, Brisbane or Adelaide.
So I cant think of a job that is only available in Sydney, Melbourne, other than high paid barrista.
What is a possibility, is relocating and buying an investment property where you want to end up.
Then someone is paying you rent on your future home and any losses are a tax deduction.
The only down side is, you have to move, well I moved every couple of years in my life, so I dont see that as an issue.

 

[over9k]

Well I guess it depends what you do, but most jobs and services are the same in all Capital cities.
High paid mining jobs are either in Perth, Brisbane or Adelaide.
So I cant think of a job that is only available in Sydney, Melbourne, other than high paid barrista.
What is a possibility, is relocating and buying an investment property where you want to end up.
Then someone is paying you rent on your future home and any losses are a tax deduction.
The only down side is, you have to move, well I moved every couple of years in my life, so I dont see that as an issue.

Again, you're completely out of touch here. The jobs market for uni grads is anything from extremely competitive to non-existent, depending on where you live. I had to move to a more expensive place to live just to get employment. That's the exact problem.

The cheaper places to live simply do not have any employment. They don't. Or, if they do, the wages are way, way lower. Not to mention what absolute shitholes they are.

Cheap things (cheap places to live) are cheap for a reason.



But you're again telling us to do things that your generation simply didn't have to. You personally might have, but your experience is not typical.

Every boomer response can be summarised as one giant "I don't give a ****". It used to be denial of reality but your generation has lost that argument and the mask has now slipped.

Your generation simply doesn't care about anything other than yourselves, up to and including your own children and grandchildren. I point out how your grandchildren are/are going to live as a consequence of what you have voted for and your response is "go and do X, go and do Y etc etc" that most of you never had to. It's a joke.

 

[Smurf1976]

I had to move to a more expensive place to live just to get employment. That's the exact problem.

I don't doubt that's the case but it's also not a new thing.

Unemployment shot up during the early-1980's recession and remained persistently high right through to about the year 2000 apart from a brief period in the late 80's when it came down a bit before shooting straight back up to new highs.

Since then unemployment has come down but underemployment has gone up in its place.

Getting work hasn't been easy since the 1970's, it's not a new problem, and nobody now aged under 60 has spent any significant portion of their working life in that environment.

What has changed is houses have become expensive and there's also a rather odd trend of knocking down perfectly good ones. 25 years ago weatherboard houses were seen as valuable enough to relocate and put back together. Now it's common enough to knock down brick houses, yes brick not weatherboard, that there are companies doing nothing but.

 

[over9k]

Let's just say that I've heard (and the data shows) different.

 

[Smurf1976]

Let's just say that I've heard (and the data shows) different.

Australia Unemployment rate - Economy

Facts and statistics about the Unemployment rate of Australia. Updated as of 2020.

www.indexmundi.com

The past 20 years has been a dream run compared to the previous 20 years so far as unemployment is concerned indeed that's one thing that has fuelled the house price boom, there's an entire generation that isn't factoring in the risk of being out of work when deciding to sign up for a massive loan.

Suffice to say I remember those days all too well and no chance I'd want to live through that again. Survived but yeah, not pleasant even slightly at the time and seemed like it would never end.

Chart doesn't show the last year but it's sufficient to illustrate the point. Even with a pandemic we're not back to 1990's levels of misery so far as jobs are concerned.

 

[over9k]

You forget that the numbers are fudged now. Howard & co made sure of that

 

[qldfrog]

I think you are generally right but, you haven't joined the dots.
The Swiss Franc dusted, the U.S reserve currency failing, so what is next?

Land gold and maybe a surprise tlike a Putin gold indexed currency.. probably crypto
I see RE going up but Australia more and more isolated. Distance..expensive flight and Covid measures...
So not sure where we end up
invest in RE in Moscow, Shanghai,Rio, Geneva.
Here in aus invest in your property not a 2bedroom rental unit

 

[MovingAverage]

Every boomer response can be summarised as one giant "I don't give a ****". It used to be denial of reality but your generation has lost that argument and the mask has now slipped.

Man, do you have an axe to grind with boomers. Do yourself a favour and get out and talk to a few—just a few. I think you’ll quickly realise that not all have that response. You might even find that some are more worried about the plight of younger generations than you think. You keep throwing up data and quoting folks like the Grattan, but not once have you made a serious connection between that data and you’re issues with boomers. To me you just seem outright pissed you weren’t born a few generations ago with the benefit of hindsight so you can now be in the position of the boomers you dislike. Envy is commonly at the root of a lot of hatred. Rock on ?

 

[Junior]

I would have thought it's easier than at just about any point in history to get a job right now in Australia. There are chronic shortages across a range of industries, and this has been massively exacerbated by the loss of immigration & backpackers. They may not be the jobs that you want, or that you are trained for, but if you're willing to work decent hours and you are physically & mentally healthy I can't imagine you'd struggle to get by.

If you're fresh out of uni looking for a relevant grad position, yes that is tough, you'll have to work unskilled jobs and keep relentlessly hunting until you find something. When you do, the pay ( & culture) might be ****....but that's what happens early in your career.

Cost and availability of housing near job centres, for families, is genuinely an issue. If you're single or childless, you will need to share-house or apartment to keep your costs low. If you have kids it's much much more challenging .

 

[sptrawler]

Man, do you have an axe to grind with boomers. Do yourself a favour and get out and talk to a few—just a few. I think you’ll quickly realise that not all have that response. You might even find that some are more worried about the plight of younger generations than you think. You keep throwing up data and quoting folks like the Grattan, but not once have you made a serious connection between that data and you’re issues with boomers. To me you just seem outright pissed you weren’t born a few generations ago with the benefit of hindsight so you can now be in the position of the boomers you dislike. Envy is commonly at the root of a lot of hatred. Rock on ?

As you say the boomers are worried about their kids, there is nothing a parent wants more, than to see their kids doing well.

First home buyers tap the bank of mum and dad

More first-time buyers are receiving financial help from their parents than ever as they struggle to raise a deposit in the wake of the latest property boom.

www.smh.com.au

 

[wayneL]

I would have thought it's easier than at just about any point in history to get a job right now in Australia. There are chronic shortages across a range of industries, and this has been massively exacerbated by the loss of immigration & backpackers. They may not be the jobs that you want, or that you are trained for, but if you're willing to work decent hours and you are physically & mentally healthy I can't imagine you'd struggle to get by.

If you're fresh out of uni looking for a relevant grad position, yes that is tough, you'll have to work unskilled jobs and keep relentlessly hunting until you find something. When you do, the pay ( & culture) might be ****....but that's what happens early in your career.

Cost and availability of housing near job centres, for families, is genuinely an issue. If you're single or childless, you will need to share-house or apartment to keep your costs low. If you have kids it's much much more challenging

Certainly true in my trade.

I've just moved home to Western Australia, my last move. I expected to be twiddling my thumbs for 2 or 3 months but I have been absolutely inundated with work in the first 5 weeks, due to an absolute shortage of qualified tradesmen in my field.

Guys are finding it impossible to get apprentices. We are pretty well paid but the work is hard and our clients are generally freaking nuts in some way... Easier to sit in an air conditioned Haulpak listening to country music up in Newman or somewhere.

Guys like me that can do specialised stuff can just name our price, because literally almost nobody can do it here.

The Gap has been filled in the past by 457 Poms, but they ain't happening now.

 

[sptrawler]

Certainly true in my trade.

I've just moved home to Western Australia, my last move. I expected to be twiddling my thumbs for 2 or 3 months but I have been absolutely inundated with work in the first 5 weeks, due to an absolute shortage of qualified tradesmen in my field.

Guys are finding it impossible to get apprentices. We are pretty well paid but the work is hard and our clients are generally freaking nuts in some way... Easier to sit in an air conditioned Haulpak listening to country music up in Newman or somewhere.

Guys like me that can do specialised stuff can just name our price, because literally almost nobody can do it here.

The Gap has been filled in the past by 457 Poms, but they ain't happening now.

Great to see you up and about Wayne, wondered where you had got to.

 

[Smurf1976]

You forget that the numbers are fudged now. Howard & co made sure of that

They are but is that really any different?

Hawke in the 80's and Keating in the 90's simply shoved everyone into "training courses" to keep the statistics down.

The 1990's recession brought with it a huge push to send practically every high school student on to university regardless of whether they were well suited, or even interested, or not. It kept them out of the workforce and thus off the unemployment statistics. They were paid Austudy rather than the dole and not counted as unemployed.

That's partly where the boom in wages for the trades started, any reasonably bright high school student who suggested they might become an electrician, plumber or whatever was firmly steered away from the idea. A lot of reasonably smart people who might have otherwise gone into a trade didn't and combined with the drop in apprenticeship numbers the end result is anyone who's genuinely good at their trade is now being paid rather a lot.

 

[Smurf1976]

If you're fresh out of uni looking for a relevant grad position, yes that is tough, you'll have to work unskilled jobs

That I spent many weekends operating one of these is how I paid my first house off:



That's a generic video from YouTube, that's not actually me but same machinery.

I've done my share of manual labour work jack hammering things and turning stop/slow signs too. The latter cops quite a bit of abuse from the public by the way.

 

[MovingAverage]

The 1990's recession brought with it a huge push to send practically every high school student on to university regardless of whether they were well suited, or even interested,

That's partly where the boom in wages for the trades started, any reasonably bright high school student who suggested they might become an electrician, plumber or whatever was firmly steered away from the idea. A lot of reasonably smart people who might have otherwise gone into a trade didn't and combined with the drop in apprenticeship numbers the end result is anyone who's genuinely good at their trade is now being paid rather a lot.

It really is a great shame what has become of a once terrific education and training system we had in TAFE.

My experience with it in the mid 80's was fantastic and I am forever grateful for the start it gave me. Unfortunately the TAFE system I once knew has slowly and surely been dismantled, neglected, and left to die over the past 20 years in favour of those ridiculous private training "colleges". To your point, this has no doubt been a significant contributor to our current position.

 

[over9k]

It really is a great shame what has become of a once terrific education and training system we had in TAFE.

My experience with it in the mid 80's was fantastic and I am forever grateful for the start it gave me. Unfortunately the TAFE system I once knew has slowly and surely been dismantled, neglected, and left to die over the past 20 years in favour of those ridiculous private training "colleges". To your point, this has no doubt been a significant contributor to our current position.

Hah. If you think that's bad, just take a look at the shite that is being pumped into the heads of kids at uni now.

One conversation with the average 19 year old uni student should tell you everything. I genuinely think the entire system needs to be completely defunded, and I do mean completely.

 

[sptrawler]

Hah. If you think that's bad, just take a look at the shite that is being pumped into the heads of kids at uni now.

One conversation with the average 19 year old uni student should tell you everything. I genuinely think the entire system needs to be completely defunded, and I do mean completely.

It certainly needs a shakeup, degree sausage machines, don't lend themselves to quality outcomes IMO.

 

[MovingAverage]

Hah. If you think that's bad, just take a look at the shite that is being pumped into the heads of kids at uni now.

One conversation with the average 19 year old uni student should tell you everything. I genuinely think the entire system needs to be completely defunded, and I do mean completely.

I’ll agree with you on that—for sure. The day universities shifted focus away from functioning as higher learning and research institutions to operating as businesses—that’s when the rot started to set in.