The future of Australian property prices

[over9k]

I'll see your 10 points of government irresponsibility and raise you one printy boi:

 

[sptrawler]

Hence why neither it nor a reduction in house prices will ever happen - the boomers have spent their entire lives voting to benefit themselves and **** the consequences/who has to pay for it and that sure isn't going to stop now.

That is a bit nasty and sounds like woe is me, why don't you man up take a spoon of cement get off your butt and go to where the money is, or maybe where the hard work is.
Rather than bitching about missing out on the Sydney - Melbourne gravy train, some of us live in areas that have gone down in value, grow a pair and get over yourself.
Mate I have worked bloody hard all my life and I now have sold a bloody good house to help my kids and my grandkids so don't shove that $hit in my face.

 

[over9k]

That is a bit nasty and sounds like woe is me, why don't you man up take a spoon of cement get off your butt and go to where the money is, or maybe where the hard work is.
Mate I have worked bloody hard all my life and I now have sold a bloody good house to help my kids and my grandkids so don't shove that $hit in my face.

That's not exactly typical of your generation though. It wasn't a personal dig at you. Fact is that housing "investment" is zero sum and thus by definition is a wealth transfer.

What I was saying is that too many boomers own investment properties for the powers that be to ever let prices fall. When an entire generation's retirement prosperity is literally dependent on how much house prices increase, the second anyone goes near housing is the second they lose an election in a landslide.

 

[satanoperca]

That is a bit nasty and sounds like woe is me, why don't you man up take a spoon of cement get off your butt and go to where the money is, or maybe where the hard work is.
Mate I have worked bloody hard all my life and I now have sold a bloody good house to help my kids and my grandkids so don't shove that $hit in my face.

Leave it Sptrawler, my parents worked very hard all their lives, they were granted some benefits of property increases, but as retirees, living of fvsavings they are being royally screwed by low IR's, the younger generations, think the boomers had it easy, all generations have and will have different circumstances to deal with in their production years.

I feel granted, I worry about my teenage son, job opportunities, cost of education and a f----kd environment all make me think, everyone has it hard in their own way.

 

[Smurf1976]

Hence why neither it nor a reduction in house prices will ever happen - the boomers have spent their entire lives voting to benefit themselves and **** the consequences/who has to pay for it and that sure isn't going to stop now.

I don't think any one generation can be blamed for the whole situation.

An awful lot of the damage was done through the 1970's and the Boomers didn't have a great deal of influence at the time. They might have marched in a rally or something but they weren't in charge of any central banks, they weren't the leader of any significant country, they weren't even on corporate boards or in senior management positions at that stage.

They failed to put the fire out but they didn't light it and to be fair, well I'm not seeing Gen X or Millennials do anything much to put the fire out either.

 

[sptrawler]

Leave it Sptrawler, my parents worked very hard all their lives, they were granted some benefits of property increases, but as retirees, living of fvsavings they are being royally screwed by low IR's, the younger generations, think the boomers had it easy, all generations have and will have different circumstances to deal with in their production years.

I feel granted, I worry about my teenage son, job opportunities, cost of education and a f----kd environment all make me think, everyone has it hard in their own way.

Yeh I know, but it is so soul destroying when you have FFking lived in $hit conditions in tthe North of W.A with only ceiling fans, to save your butt off and now you are being screwed by the government, by the banks, and try like %hit to help your kids and some dick who cant buy a FFFking house in Sydney is whinnninng like a baby.
I just wish we could discuss it man to man.

 

[over9k]

Yeh I know, but it is so soul destroying when you have FFking lived in $hit conditions in tthe North of W.A with only ceiling fans, to save your butt off and now you are being screwed by the government, by the banks, and try like %hit to help your kids and some dick who cant buy a FFFking house in Sydney is whinnninng like a baby.
I just wish we could discuss it man to man.

I made quite a point of saying that your experience isn't typical trawler. It was not a personal dig at you.


The fact that there's almost no other way to make money in this country (outside of a mine) should really be ringing alarm bells for everyone. Perpetual house price increases does not an economy make.

 

[sptrawler]

That's not exactly typical of your generation though. It wasn't a personal dig at you. Fact is that housing "investment" is zero sum and thus by definition is a wealth transfer.

What I was saying is that too many boomers own investment properties for the powers that be to ever let prices fall. When an entire generation's retirement prosperity is literally dependent on how much house prices increase, the second anyone goes near housing is the second they lose an election in a landslide.

Mate that might be the case in FFking Sydney - Melbourne, where the real work is done is in W.A and actually if you bought an investment house here 15 years ago, you are still loosing money.
Get your head out of your butt, if you want to buy in Sydney-Melbourne in the yuppy chinese market, well it means you need to pick up your act and stop blaming your parents.
If you want to live in Perth, Adelaide, Darwin, you can probably live in an up market area and be smug.
But you will have to take some tickets off yourself and accept your level of achievement, blaming your parents for your failure to achieve you ambitions is a cop out.

 

[over9k]

Ok, continuing this conversation is pointless. Moving on.

 

[sptrawler]

I agree, I will leave you with a post and hopefully it will make you reflect on being bitter about chasing the market.
I have never done that, I've always been inwardly looking to what I and my family really need, shelter, food, and the ability to ride through the worst scenario.

How has Australia's housing marking changed since 2010?

Back in 2010, Perth prices were higher than those in Adelaide and Brisbane, and it was cheaper to buy in Melbourne than in Canberra.

www.domain.com.au

Anything above that is a win, the kids don't remember what carpet was on the floor, what they remember is what it was like to live with mum and dad.
Just my opinion

 

[sptrawler]

That's not exactly typical of your generation though. It wasn't a personal dig at you. Fact is that housing "investment" is zero sum and thus by definition is a wealth transfer.

What I was saying is that too many boomers own investment properties for the powers that be to ever let prices fall. When an entire generation's retirement prosperity is literally dependent on how much house prices increase, the second anyone goes near housing is the second they lose an election in a landslide.

And that is exactly why a death duty will be introduced.
Inter generational wealth transfer is killing Australia.

According to the Williams Group, 70% of wealthy families lose their wealth by the 2nd generation, and 90% lose their wealth by the 3rd generation. The saying is: “The first generation makes it, the second generation spends it, and the third generation blows it.

Guess what, by your reckoning, you are the 2nd generation. lol

 

[sptrawler]

I made quite a point of saying that your experience isn't typical trawler. It was not a personal dig at you.


The fact that there's almost no other way to make money in this country (outside of a mine) should really be ringing alarm bells for everyone. Perpetual house price increases does not an economy make.

Well at least you are are honest and up front.
Also the alarm bells are ringing, thanks for the heads up.

 

[sptrawler]

The long awaited Sydney, Melbourne property reset may yet happen, as we said earlier with the lack of immigration the demand may drop, add to that the Government throwing money at building properties, the uncertainty with China and supply may outstrip demand.
That is exactly what happened in W.A when the mining boom busted, mass exodus of people to the Eastern States, oversupply, end result massive contraction in prices.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...strips-demand-until-2023-20201214-p56n8o.html
From the article:

While record low interest rates and government programs have propped up the property market through the pandemic, population growth is already slowing rapidly due to the closure of the international border.

Net overseas migration is expected to fall from 154,000 people in 2019-20 to minus 72,000 by the end of this financial year.


Whether migration recovers, will depend a lot on the virus and Government settings, who knows there may be a new norm coming.
We can only hope.

 

[againsthegrain]

The long awaited Sydney, Melbourne property reset may yet happen, as we said earlier with the lack of immigration the demand may drop, add to that the Government throwing money at building properties, the uncertainty with China and supply may outstrip demand.
That is exactly what happened in W.A when the mining boom busted, mass exodus of people to the Eastern States, oversupply, end result massive contraction in prices.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...strips-demand-until-2023-20201214-p56n8o.html
From the article:

While record low interest rates and government programs have propped up the property market through the pandemic, population growth is already slowing rapidly due to the closure of the international border.

Net overseas migration is expected to fall from 154,000 people in 2019-20 to minus 72,000 by the end of this financial year.


Whether migration recovers, will depend a lot on the virus and Government settings, who knows there may be a new norm coming.
We can only hope.

I read many forums, all different target markets. It is really good to get a insight into what people on non financial forums say and think about property, because now from computer to car forums there is always a housing thread.

The similarity I notice all across the board is majority people from all backgrounds all think or rather hope quiet aggressively Melbourne and Sydney will be jumping in 10% or even 20% leaps annually. Nobody has any explanations except printing money and heavy govt interest in re. Obviously those 2 exist and are there I don't know how much more push they have.

I think it actually comes down to group mentality at the moment. Alot of people have some vested interest and everybody all the way up from the uber driver to a middle manager are talking it up. This, low interest rates and govt incentives are the only things keeping the push at the moment. I would say if anything its not a push but rather treading water not to sink.

What fundamentals? Satanoperca already spelled it out, no wage growth, rental yelds are dead etc etc

We will see how group irrationality will go against heavy laws of gravity, but its 2020 everything is upside down

 

[sptrawler]

Well put @againsthegrain.
As you say, there are non so blind as those who don't want to see. I think the Government will have more on its plate, than subsidising property, in the near future.
Every boom has a bust, it is all about timing. With the current virus/China episode, the last thing I would want is a huge mortgage over my head.

 

[moXJO]

The fact that there's almost no other way to make money in this country (outside of a mine) should really be ringing alarm bells for everyone. Perpetual house price increases does not an economy make.

It is concerning. And let me tell you, the building industry for smaller businesses is getting harder and harder to turn a coin. There are that many leech industries attached to it that the implosion would be epic when we see a downturn.

 

[moXJO]

Every boom has a bust, it is all about timing. With the current virus/China episode, the last thing I would want is a huge mortgage over my head.

We have had a forever boom. Apparently our war with China has sent iron ore sky-rocketing. Australia truly is the arse-iest country when it comes to continuing the boom.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've just been reading The Times of London today and some analysts are predicting the prices of property in London will fall by 70%.

There is a move to the Regions gaining momentum due to Covid-19 and from politicians too scared to not invest outside the capital.

It discusses "Foreign Ownership", Office and Home Property Bubbles, and elections being decided in the Regions.

Remind anyone of places closer to home here in Australia?

gg

 

[sptrawler]

I've just been reading The Times of London today and some analysts are predicting the prices of property in London will fall by 70%.

There is a move to the Regions gaining momentum due to Covid-19 and from politicians too scared to not invest outside the capital.

It discusses "Foreign Ownership", Office and Home Property Bubbles, and elections being decided in the Regions.

Remind anyone of places closer to home here in Australia?

gg

If there is a fall of 70% in London prices, I will be buying, take that to the bank.

 

[wayneL]

If there is a fall of 70% in London prices, I will be buying, take that to the bank.

Oooo yeah... A nice little detached cottage near the Wimbledon Common and the Hand in Hand pub to live out our dotage.

Count me in too!