The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

Yeah if not for the immigration the population would actually be in decline. Same with london, california, everywhere migrants stream in, the locals leave.

Which only makes the powers that be bring in even more people in an attempt to keep demand propped up.

The other thing with migrants, they are either wealthy or prepared to work together as a family unit, that enables them to break into markets Australians can't.
The Australian psyche is to paddle your own canoe, whereas Asian and subcontinent cultures work as family units and three generations may work together, to build an asset base.
It has all come to screaming halt with the virus, but whether the Government wants to return to that model will be interesting.
I personally think it has skewed Australian society too much, as immigration has focused on living in Sydney/Melbourne, that is because the capital gains there make rapid wealth gain possible. Also coming from poorer countries they are very attuned to opportunity and are entrepreneurial .
One thing for sure, the Government departments do modelling and they know what is going on, they just have to decide if it is worth it, in the long run.
Just my thoughts.

 

[Smurf1976]

Talked to a friend that's been in the real estate game forever. Reckons they have never been busier

House near me had the for sale sign up on Friday last week and an open house on Sunday.

I'm told there was a building inspector there yesterday (Wednesday) so presumably they've got at least one offer just like that.

Places seem to be selling quickly.

 

[moXJO]

House near me had the for sale sign up on Friday last week and an open house on Sunday.

I'm told there was a building inspector there yesterday (Wednesday) so presumably they've got at least one offer just like that.

Places seem to be selling quickly.

Its crazy. A couple weeks of slowdown if that.

Reminds me of when Rudd's stimulus went through. I only briefly bet on "bear" these days.
Watching stimulus wash through back in the gfc was a real education.

 

[satanoperca]

Its crazy. A couple weeks of slowdown if that.

Reminds me of when Rudd's stimulus went through. I only briefly bet on "bear" these days.
Watching stimulus wash through back in the gfc was a real education.

I agree.

If you had $10M to invest, where would you put it?
Shares some.
Bank deposits, hmmm risky and no return.
Property - YES
A business venture - need to have big balls

 

[wayneL]

I agree.

If you had $10M to invest, where would you put it?
Shares some.
Bank deposits, hmmm risky and no return.
Property - YES
A business venture - need to have big balls

And this encapsulates precisely what is wrong in our economy and why we should do a little bit more long term thinking about where we should put our hard-earned.

for now and probably for the foreseeable future your assessment I think is absolutely correct, but is it sustainable?

For some indeterminate period of time I think it is sustainable but at some point it won't be. The question is when and can one be financially nimble and forward-thinking enough to make the changes at the right time? (Lay opinion only of course)

As as we have consistently seen, forecasting is a mugs game.... nobody can do it effectively, unless by luck... And I think it is at demonstrable fact about our government will chuck the kitchen sink at popping up the real estate market

But can the hallucinogen of easy and cheap money from Central Banks be maintained? What ifwns things change? But if interest rates start cranking up?

What happens in ”The Reset"?

 

[satanoperca]

And this encapsulates precisely what is wrong in our economy and why we should do a little bit more long term thinking about where we should put our hard-earned.

for now and probably for the foreseeable future your assessment I think is absolutely correct, but is it sustainable?

For some indeterminate period of time, I think it is sustainable but at some point, it won't be. The question is when and can one be financially nimble and forward-thinking enough to make the changes at the right time? (Lay opinion only of course)

As as we have consistently seen, forecasting is a mug's game.... nobody can do it effectively, unless by luck... And I think it is at the demonstrable fact about our government will chuck the kitchen sink at popping up the real estate market

But can the hallucinogen of easy and cheap money from Central Banks be maintained? What ifwns things change? But if interest rates start cranking up?

What happens in ”The Reset"?

In short, not it is not sustainable (for how long is the question for investors), but I am not in control and few choose to listen or understand.

 

[over9k]

Cross-post:



Just in case anyone needed any clarity.

 

[Smurf1976]

House near me had the for sale sign up on Friday last week and an open house on Sunday.

I'm told there was a building inspector there yesterday (Wednesday) so presumably they've got at least one offer just like that.

Places seem to be selling quickly.

Walked past it a short time ago - SOLD sticker is on the sign.

So realistically it sold at the first open. Everything beyond that would be just time to formally accept the offer, get the building and pest inspection done and so on but it would presumably have been sold as such at the first opportunity anyone had to look at it.

 

[satanoperca]

Cross-post:

View attachment 116151

Just in case anyone needed any clarity.

Being simple, as I am, so what that chart states, is money I have to work for and save, is worth less than what I worked for, given inflation and other inputs.

So soon I will not have to run a business, I simply will have to borrow money and those that I borrow off, will pay me for contracted with them that I will pay the money back at some time in the future, the original amount that will be worth less than the borrowed amount.

We live in one f----kd up world.

 

[againsthegrain]

Being simple, as I am, so what that chart states, is money I have to work for and save, is worth less than what I worked for, given inflation and other inputs.

So soon I will not have to run a business, I simply will have to borrow money and those that I borrow off, will pay me for contracted with them that I will pay the money back at some time in the future, the original amount that will be worth less than the borrowed amount.

We live in one f----kd up world.

 

[sptrawler]

What the crucial figure will be, is what percentage are investment purchases and what is for ppr.
Buying an investment property, on the hope you will rent it to someone who isnt on jobseeker or jobkeeper, is brave investing, but the borrowed money is cheap.
That leads to the question how much do you have to borrow to make it tax effective, the other option of course is to hope on a capital gain.
Shares paying 4%, with franking take some beating ATM.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I am resting in the Northern Rivers of NSW and Coolangatta.

It is a good time to be selling RE. The agents are often just asking for expressions of interest as the prices rise daily and buyers are flying in to Cooly Airport with wads of money from Melbourne.

Gawd help them when the bank foreclosures begin in April and mortgagee in possession sales begin. Locals in the know expect a 20% drop.

gg

 

[Smurf1976]

Buying an investment property, on the hope you will rent it to someone who isnt on jobseeker or jobkeeper, is brave investing, but the borrowed money is cheap.

For many I think the problem is lack of perceived alternatives.

In the past someone could put their money in any bank and receive decent interest. That option is now not simply reduced but as of 2020 it's gone completely or at least gone so far as being of any use is concerned.

Go back to the 1980's and there was also the option of handing your money over to Australian National (the railways), the various water authorities, Telecom, the SECV etc. They'd all gladly take your term deposit, pay you interest at rates higher than the banks and repayment of your capital was government guaranteed. For those not aware, that's how rather a lot of infrastructure was funded in the past. Government-backed authorities borrowed directly from the public and did so very openly.

For the mainstream that leaves shares and houses so no surprise to see plenty of money flowing into both.

 

[over9k]

What the crucial figure will be, is what percentage are investment purchases and what is for ppr.
Buying an investment property, on the hope you will rent it to someone who isnt on jobseeker or jobkeeper, is brave investing, but the borrowed money is cheap.
That leads to the question how much do you have to borrow to make it tax effective, the other option of course is to hope on a capital gain.
Shares paying 4%, with franking take some beating ATM.

renting has been well below mortgage yield for years. it's pure capital gain (speculation) making up the difference.

 

[over9k]

View attachment 116158

This post is so, so, so wrong.



The money should look like this:

 

[wayneL]

This post is so, so, so wrong.



The money should look like this:

View attachment 116201

Give it (a little) time.

 

[over9k]

The irony is that a bit (a bit) of money supply inflation is exactly what we need to ease the debt burden.

 

[sptrawler]

The problem is, as a self funded retiree, it is the last thing I want.

 

[over9k]

Hence why neither it nor a reduction in house prices will ever happen - the boomers have spent their entire lives voting to benefit themselves and **** the consequences/who has to pay for it and that sure isn't going to stop now.

 

[satanoperca]

Hence why neither it nor a reduction in house prices will ever happen

Wouldn't bet on a house of cards.

1. Record low IR's
2. Record high debt to GDP
3. Govnuts up to their eyeballs
4. Wage growth in reverse
5. Trade war with our biggest trading partner
6. Retirees running low on funds
7. 2 Entitled generations
8. The slow death of Democracy
9. A CPI Index that is out of touch
10. CB banks that are just trying to cover their arses with outdated models of economics

Hope those little green men will come down and show us who is who.