The future of Australian property prices

[satanoperca]

We should have had financial pain years ago. Problem is, the powers that be keep kicking the can down the road trying to avoid it because no politician wants to be the one that "had the economy go bad on their watch" or words to that effect.

None of it should have ever been set in motion in the first place, but people at the time voted for it and are now trying to make everyone else pay the piper.

The result is that nothing gets done about it, so it just gets forestalled to be even worse in the future/for someone else to deal with. The people who have done it will never be held responsible. Never.

You are 100% correct, those responsible will never be held to account, but all dam walls break when they are made out of straw.

2% interest rates on home loans, can we take (auction) 1%. No. what we can do is rack up more debt. I believe in the long term one man might be correct - Steven Keen.

 

[over9k]

It seems like I'm waiting on a bust that is never going to come. We have been talking of deep structural problems with the economy for years. Now we can add China to the list.

Debt is your smoking gun here moxjo. The moment that starts to get paid down is the moment everything goes to ****.

I am not taking the piss when I say that the last 20 years of economic "growth" has been funded by debt. Subtract the debt from it, and there's been almost no economic growth at all.

 

[satanoperca]

And to add to my stance, shelter should be for Australians and no one else as all Australians need it.
It is an essential part of creating a great community and society and should not be sold out.

 

[againsthegrain]

And to add to my stance, shelter should be for Australians and no one else as all Australians need it.
It is an essential part of creating a great community and society and should not be sold out.

nor used as a vehicle for financial speculation

 

[satanoperca]

Debt is your smoking gun here moxjo. The moment that starts to get paid down is the moment everything goes to ****.

I am not taking the piss when I say that the last 20 years of economic "growth" has been funded by debt. Subtract the debt from it, and there's been almost no economic growth at all.

You can switch the other way around, when everyone cannot pay it down it all goes to ****.

Or when everyone realises they have been taken for a ride by the central banks, it all goes to ****.

Or when 30% of the Australian population, retirees who worked hard and saved, cannot get a return on their hard-earned capital, <1% on term deposits and ask for the pension (which will not exist in 10 years time), the grey nomads might rise up and give ***** to those that cannot be held responsible.

Or we can simply hang the central bankers.

 

[over9k]

Everyone knows that unless you have an investment property for your retirement, you're f***ed. They have been people's retirement plans. Investment properties have absolutely smoked super returns. Why do you think the powers that be won't let prices fall?

The other one is dodging income taxes by salary sacrificing into super. You don't need a decent rate of return when you're already dodging 30% or so worth of income tax - that's your return right there.

 

[sptrawler]

We should have had financial pain years ago. Problem is, the powers that be keep kicking the can down the road trying to avoid it because no politician wants to be the one that "had the economy go bad on their watch" or words to that effect.

None of it should have ever been set in motion in the first place, but people at the time voted for it and are now trying to make everyone else pay the piper.

The result is that nothing gets done about it, so it just gets forestalled to be even worse in the future/for someone else to deal with. The people who have done it will never be held responsible. Never.

Fact is there really isn't much ammo left to fight this thing and it couldn't have happened at a worse time. I've said this before and I'll say it again: The economics isn't the concern, it's what the politicians are going to do (or not do) that has me worried.

Spot on, this started in the 1970's, accelerated in the 1990's and has been out of control since 2000's.
We had a speed hump with the GFC, but this latest splurge has really sucked the credibility tank dry. IMO
Something has to happen, who knows, what it will be?
But lifting 1.4 billion out of poverty, from a given pot of money, while maintaining first world living standards, doesn't add up.
As we are finding out.
Just my opinion.

 

[againsthegrain]

Spot on, this started in the 1970's, accelerated in the 1990's and has been out of control since 2000's.
We had a speed hump with the GFC, but this latest splurge has really sucked the credibility tank dry. IMO
Something has to happen, who knows, what it will be?
But lifting 1.4 billion out of poverty, from a given pot of money, while maintaining first world living standards, doesn't add up.
As we are finding out.
Just my opinion.

There is only so many Millions a house can be worth and as close to 0% interest rates can be before physically you cannot borrow that much and repay it in a lifetime.

As said before we are slowly approaching a brick wall, the mainstream population seems to think we are still on course to the moon and beyond however nobody can explain the fundamentals behind this.

Interesting times to watch from the sidelines

 

[over9k]

There is only so many Millions a house can be worth and as close to 0% interest rates can be before physically you cannot borrow that much and repay it in a lifetime.

As said before we are slowly approaching a brick wall, the mainstream population seems to think we are still on course to the moon and beyond however nobody can explain the fundamentals behind this.

Interesting times to watch from the sidelines

Exactly right. Interest rates are nothing but a throttle on house prices. If you halve the interest rate, people can borrow twice as much. It really is that simple.

And in case you haven't noticed, house prices aren't even considered in the inflation basket.

 

[moXJO]

People on $1500 a week keep telling me they don't know where the money goes and its not enough to cover bills.

We also were apparently in a recession. Funny that a lot had one of the best years ever. Or so they tell me. We can't even do recession right anymore.

Shouldn't complain, but I do wonder what happens when we run out of stimulus. The current predicament with China is bigger then they are letting on. I have no doubt China knows this as well, if it wasn't planned years ago.

 

[againsthegrain]

People on $1500 a week keep telling me they don't know where the money goes and its not enough to cover bills.

We also were apparently in a recession. Funny that a lot had one of the best years ever. Or so they tell me. We can't even do recession right anymore.

Shouldn't complain, but I do wonder what happens when we run out of stimulus. The current predicament with China is bigger then they are letting on. I have no doubt China knows this as well, if it wasn't planned years ago.

The magic hat where the bunny is pulled from seems to be bottomless and we the audience keep waiting with anticipation what comes out next.

Back when first home owner grants were given prices were alot lower, rates alot higher... alot of bunnies could be pulled.

Now not much room on either front, a 10k or even 20k grant on a 1m+ property is not much of a diff, banks need profits too so they can't follow rba all the way to the bottom and give mortgages for free.

I am waiting on something totally left field here next.

 

[over9k]

The next step will be negative rates and/or money printing. And immigration like we've never seen before.

 

[againsthegrain]

The next step will be negative rates and/or money printing. And immigration like we've never seen before.

With so much vested interest and bad stimulus money sunk after bad money there will be no other way out, who wants to be the guy in history who will be remembered as raising the white flag?

The more logically I try to approach it the more illogical the whole situation gets, can't stop digging on better to dig deeper then stop.

How will it ever be possible to bring rates up if average mortgage size is 1M and a .25pc move wipes out large numbers of population?

I guess this will be a worldwide phenomenon, but what if what if rates around start going up and we can't follow?

Do we became the global safe heaven for the worlds elites? All the rich from India and China bail out the market and live in the safest "covid free zone" while the locals became their workforce?

No scenario ends up looking good

 

[sptrawler]

With so much vested interest and bad stimulus money sunk after bad money there will be no other way out, who wants to be the guy in history who will be remembered as raising the white flag?

The more logically I try to approach it the more illogical the whole situation gets, can't stop digging on better to dig deeper then stop.

How will it ever be possible to bring rates up if average mortgage size is 1M and a .25pc move wipes out large numbers of population?

I guess this will be a worldwide phenomenon, but what if what if rates around start going up and we can't follow?

Do we became the global safe heaven for the worlds elites? All the rich from India and China bail out the market and live in the safest "covid free zone" while the locals became their workforce?

No scenario ends up looking good

You have to remember, those $1m mortgages are mainly centered around Sydney, Melbourne, we don't dig a lot of raw materials up there or grow a lot of produce there.
They are full of people in the service industries, trying to make money by selling a house for more than they bought it for, in most other capitals and country areas people have more moderate mortgages to just provide them shelter.
So I guess from a housing perspective, there are really only two issues, or should I say two problem areas.
I would also add to that, I bet the smart money, is selling up and moving elsewhere ATM.

 

[againsthegrain]

You have to remember, those $1m mortgages are mainly centered around Sydney, Melbourne, we don't dig a lot of raw materials up there or grow a lot of produce there.
They are full of people in the service industries, trying to make money by selling a house for more than they bought it for, in most other capitals and country areas people have more moderate mortgages to just provide them shelter.
So I guess from a housing perspective, there are really only two issues, or should I say two problem areas.
I would also add to that, I bet the smart money, is selling up and moving elsewhere ATM.

This is a fair point, however on the flip side those 2 cities have 10m population together so 1/3 of Aus, this is a large chunk of people that are the no1 protected species atm

 

[sptrawler]

This is a fair point, however on the flip side those 2 cities have 10m population together so 1/3 of Aus, this is a large chunk of people that are the no1 protected species atm

Were a protected species, pre the stop on immigration, pre the banking RC and the Chinese issue that is currently unfolding.
Parents of O/S students, would have been a big influence, on the market.
Banks lending to support the ponzi scheme, will be a bit gun shy after the government enforced repayment and foreclosure freeze, their sphincters will only just be releasing and they wont be too keen on throwing money out the door for a while IMO.
Just my thoughts.

 

[moXJO]

People are flooding out of Sydney, or so I'm being told be RE agents.
The other thing is rates get ratcheted up with all these rises. You add this to all the other leech costs and it looks even more painful.

All these govt "costs" can't just keep heading up.

 

[againsthegrain]

Were a protected species, pre the stop on immigration, pre the banking RC and the Chinese issue that is currently unfolding.
Parents of O/S students, would have been a big influence, on the market.
Banks lending to support the ponzi scheme, will be a bit gun shy after the government enforced repayment and foreclosure freeze, their sphincters will only just be releasing and they wont be too keen on throwing money out the door for a while IMO.
Just my thoughts.

I am on the same page as you, would like to see this and balance restored. Just became a pessimist over the years being a sideline spectator. Btw im born in the 80s and live in Melbourne, totally lost trust in the govt a long time ago

 

[sptrawler]

The problem Australia has and I might sound like a dick, but it is running out of easy ways to make money, welfare is good so taxation is high, so wages have to be high.
From the 1990's through to now wages accelerated, but also as wages rose quickly so did what people could pay for a house and the merry go round started. Then Federal and State Governments started making money hand over fist from property related taxes be it GST, wages or stamp duty etc.
No point in re going over what has already been said, but Australia is running out of ways to make easy money, IMO either Sydney and Melbourne have a bust or everyone will suffer.
We really are at the point of robbing Peter, to pay Paul, somebody has to pay to maintain the status quo.
The elastic band is stretched as far as it can go ATM and unless some structural changes are made, it will come back hard and hit some sector of society very hard.
My guess is death duties or similar on the PPR >$1m, that will deflate the Sydney, Melbourne prices.
Just my thoughts.

 

[over9k]

Yeah if not for the immigration the population would actually be in decline. Same with london, california, everywhere migrants stream in, the locals leave.

Which only makes the powers that be bring in even more people in an attempt to keep demand propped up.