The future of Australian property prices

[wayneL]

..... but does expect handouts from a rich dad instead ? Wouldn't it make more sense.. for housing to be related to incomes. Imagine for a moment the plight of the disabled without rich folks to bail them out.

Also what is wrong with government handouts ? Property investors seem to get an awful lot of them each year so I don't see the issue to be honest !

it's called a safety net for a reason, it means that if for reasons you cannot afford to live in our society that society will catch you as you slip through the cracks.

Universal welfare is socialism with all the attendant debate about that.

As to your question, what is wrong with government handouts? The problem with government handouts is that *productive* members of society have to pay for them via taxation (or inflation).

When it becomes a better proposition to rely on government handouts, people will no longer be willing to be productive. This is the absolute folly of socialism and why it has never, and never will work.

 

[qldfrog]

it's called a safety net for a reason, it means that if for reasons you cannot afford to live in our society that society will catch you as you slip through the cracks.

Universal welfare is socialism with all the attendant debate about that.

As to your question, what is wrong with government handouts? The problem with government handouts is that *productive* members of society have to pay for them via taxation (or inflation).

When it becomes a better proposition to rely on government handouts, people will no longer be willing to be productive. This is the absolute folly of socialism and why it has never, and never will work.

You know me and fully agree with the folly of this but i would also say what's wrong with hand-outs?if you qualify get these.we have reached the critical threshold where more than half of Australians do not pay tax.gst excluded i think.
In a scenario lke that, just join the party otherwise you are just the sucker...

 

[sptrawler]

You know me and fully agree with the folly of this but i would also say what's wrong with hand-outs?if you qualify get these.we have reached the critical threshold where more than half of Australians do not pay tax.gst excluded i think.
In a scenario lke that, just join the party otherwise you are just the sucker...

Funny you mention that, my daughter who is challenged, has always paid her way it gives her a great deal of pride.
Like she has a low paid job around $38k on a normal year, has always paid private hospital coverage because of her physical situation, but has hardly used it, she paid for IVF and has had two kids (about $20k out of pocket), she has paid for her own cochlear implant ($8k).
Well she has just met another deaf person who understands the system, well lets say it has been an awakening for her, as she worked so hard to become a talking deaf person, she actually missed out on a myriad of services that are available for deaf people.
It is an interesting world in Australia, long may it last, but I fear many will destroy it by exploiting it.
Anyway drifting a bit off topic.

 

[wayneL]

You know me and fully agree with the folly of this but i would also say what's wrong with hand-outs?if you qualify get these.we have reached the critical threshold where more than half of Australians do not pay tax.gst excluded i think.
In a scenario lke that, just join the party otherwise you are just the sucker...

Yeah sick of being the sucker TBH. Just gotta figure out how to get on the public teet.

... haven't even been to a quack in donkey's years.

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah sick of being the sucker TBH. Just gotta figure out how to get on the public teet.

Unfortunately that is the reality of Australia today, if you are on the public teet, you are a very unfortunate person who deserves all the assistance that the taxpayer can pay, it isn't your fault you can't find a job.
If you are not on the public teet, you are a fat cat who deserves to be taxed to the point you are forced onto the public teet, only then have you paid your penance for your endeavour.
Welcome to the Australia we are making, I can't understand who is going to foot the bill, when everyone just says fluck it and goes on the public teet.
But as frog says, if you can't beat them join them. ?
I think you spend way too much time worrying about it Wayne, the days of a fair days pay for a fair days work, has changed to a fair days pay but forget the work bit.
The small businesses are complaining they can't get workers because of jobkeeper, the media wants jobkeeper to stay, so people don't need to go to work, interesting times.

 

[Mrmagoo]

I agree socialism is a failure but I think welfare is necessary and important. An example of failed socialist policy is special treatment and tax treatment given to housing investors and the housing industry. Australia would be much better off without it. Also, welfare isn't really a feature of socialist nations exclusively and you will find most socialist nations have relatively low levels of welfare compared to developed western nations.

 

[Warr87]

I agree socialism is a failure but I think welfare is necessary and important. An example of failed socialist policy is special treatment and tax treatment given to housing investors and the housing industry. Australia would be much better off without it. Also, welfare isn't really a feature of socialist nations exclusively and you will find most socialist nations have relatively low levels of welfare compared to developed western nations.

ummm, explain to me how special treatment and tax treatment in relation to housing investors is socialism? Seems like a thoroughly capitalist idea to subsidize investors ....

 

[qldfrog]

I agree socialism is a failure but I think welfare is necessary and important. An example of failed socialist policy is special treatment and tax treatment given to housing investors and the housing industry. Australia would be much better off without it. Also, welfare isn't really a feature of socialist nations exclusively and you will find most socialist nations have relatively low levels of welfare compared to developed western nations.

Developed western nations are mostly socialists in nature, they are democratic..well kind of , and play a us vs them game.
Then any socialist leader can get and retain leadership as long as he seizes and redistributes the wealth of the 49% toward the 51%...
Obviously, slightly caricatural but in essence, this is it.
Given the choice, people prefer getting richer or even with a neighbour, more than poorer, even with more actual wealth
Venezuela, France, you name it.
Once this system sets in, even the so call concervatives are just socialists in hiding.
Look here...
Anyway, getting off track

 

[Mrmagoo]

ummm, explain to me how special treatment and tax treatment in relation to housing investors is socialism? Seems like a thoroughly capitalist idea to subsidize investors ....

Because capitalism shouldn't be subsidising investors.

 

[Warr87]

Because capitalism shouldn't be subsidising investors.

agreed. and it does. so im confused as to why you are attributing that to socialism? i really don't think you understand what socialism is becauase it is capitalism that is subsidising investors, giving corporate handouts, etc., even though under a capitalism framework that shouldn't be happening (which always makes me wonder why people say capitalism works when it is bailing out companies or giving massive tax breaks to said companies so they can operate at huge profits). i dont think ive heard of any socialist who advocate to subsize investors?

 

[basilio]

The cynical(*but accurate) description of our current economic system is
"Privatising the profits and socialising the losses"

Essentially if you're canny enough to do well in business or create some sort of questionable process for making a buck the profits are all yours.
But on the way or at the end see if you can drop any business costs or big losses on the Government/taxpayer.

Examples:

• Mining companies that go conveniently broke and leave huge environmental problems rehabiliting old mine sites to the Government
• Businesses that go broke or phoenix into a new form and leave employees wages and super and leave and customers deposits and payments for government to pick up
• Banks that loan truck loads of money to questionable investment schemes and then look for government support when it all goes south

 

[basilio]

Probably along the lines of "No xhit Sherlock" but the pressure on retail shopping centres with COVID and the loss international students is biting hard. Not good news for Property Trust investors

Sales Rebound Can't Fully Offset Reduced Traffic for Vicinity - ShareCafe

Despite the solid rebound in retail sales, the continuing shortfall in the numbers of shoppers, tourists and CBD office workers has seen Vicinity Centres knock another half a billion dollars off the value of its centres.

www.sharecafe.com.au

 

[gartley]

Why house prices could jump 30 per cent

Heightened borrower confidence in record low interest rates could push property prices sky-high according to analysis by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

www.news.com.au

So RBA tipping property prices will rise 30% in the next 3 years.

Maybe time to sell.......

 

[over9k]

Government policy is what determines that.

I.e flood of foreign students/migrants or not.

This is nothing other than a supply & demand problem. People forget that.

 

[sptrawler]

Government policy is what determines that.

I.e flood of foreign students/migrants or not.

This is nothing other than a supply & demand problem. People forget that.

So true, I think while the covid situation is rampant therefore there is no migration, so the requirement for rental properties is reduced.
The focus should change to first home buyers, the obvious stimulus IMO is, first home buyers can claim there interest as a tax deduction, until they either sell the property and or earn over a certain amount.
Also a cap would have to be put on the amount that could be borrowed, otherwise you would have rich people funding their children to build harbourside mansions.
But it shouldnt be too hard to regulate and would take the pressure off young couples, so maybe they could think about reversing the birth rate, rather than chasing an elusive dream.
Just my opinion.

 

[over9k]

Yeah, rentals around the uni's are reeeeally cheap at the moment.

Housing "investment" is a zero sum game and this is the problem the powers that be find themselves in - you bleed everyone dry through housing, spending everywhere else dries up, so jobs (and the money needed to bid house prices up in the first place) vanish.

You can only alleviate (kick the can down the road) by dropping interest rates for so long before you run out of ammo, and we're now at that point. There's a saying in the military about what to do when you're in a jam and it's just the very simple observation that sometimes you can reach a point where you simply have no good options, and we're there.


I've said this before and I'll say it again: This isn't actually what worries me. What the politicians are going to do, however, now that's something to think about.

 

[Smurf1976]

explain to me how special treatment and tax treatment in relation to housing investors is socialism?

It's a redistribution of wealth in a manner that wouldn't naturally occur in a competitive market and also doesn't occur in a regulated "cost plus x" monopoly.

 

[sptrawler]

Well with the pandemic, they obviously arent going to maintain a population growth through imigration, so it is going to have to be through birthrate.
Politicians always want a growing population, one side wants it through refugees, because they vote their way.
The other side wants it through skilled immigration and natural internal birthrate, because they tend to vote their way.
So as you say it is political, but the virus has thrown in a wild card.

 

[Smurf1976]

Probably along the lines of "No xhit Sherlock" but the pressure on retail shopping centres with COVID and the loss international students is biting hard. Not good news for Property Trust investors

A purely personal observation that I don't have facts to back but 1990's and early 00's there seemed to be a massive increase in the number of shops and satellite "shopping CBD's" that far outstripped the rise in population over that time to the point that the actual city CBD has become mostly irrelevant as a location for shopping.

I've long wondered how some of them make any money when there's multiple of the same chain store within easy driving distance and none of them are even slightly crowded inside.

 

[over9k]

Well with the pandemic, they obviously arent going to maintain a population growth through imigration, so it is going to have to be through birthrate.
Politicians always want a growing population, one side wants it through refugees, because they vote their way.
The other side wants it through skilled immigration and natural internal birthrate, because they tend to vote their way.
So as you say it is political, but the virus has thrown in a wild card.

Yes, a lot of government policies throughout the entire world are offline at the moment.

But what are they going to do once the virus is over?

Follow-up question to that: What are they going to do in response to baby boomer mass retirement? It's not like there's a sovereign wealth fund to fund the pensions, healthcare spending etc etc that will be necessary. In fact, we're in massive debt even ignoring the coronavirus debt that's been added, and that's while we have the boomers still working and paying IN to the system rather than drawing OUT of it once they retire. So we see the tax revenue disappear at the same time as the drawing OUT of the system goes into overdrive.

Just where is the money going to come from?