The future of Australian property prices

[basilio]

It really has to be done, the only way we can efficiently develop Australia's remote areas, is to provide work there.
To do that, we need to develop industries that value add to the minerals we dig up, it is too inefficient to dig up the minerals transport them down South to process them and then ship them North to the markets.
If we are going to develop a huge hydrogen industry in the North, we need to accept that we need to have people live and work there, flying your workforce of tens of thousands of people 4,000klm every 8 days is not sustainable.

In theory I agree with you SP. I just wonder how many people will be required to maintain these new industries ? I can see a large work force in the build stage but I'm not sure how many will be required when plants are fully operational.

There are plans to develop huge solar/hydrogen projects up north. One of the concerns however will be the effect of a warming climate will have on living conditions in far north Australia - in fact many, many regions of Australia. That issue isn't going away and will need to be factored in at some stage.

https://asianrehub.com/
https://www.climatechangeinaustrali...s_page_media/176/CCIA_Australian_cities_1.pdf

 

[sptrawler]

In theory I agree with you SP. I just wonder how many people will be required to maintain these new industries ? I can see a large work force in the build stage but I'm not sure how many will be required when plants are fully operational.

There are plans to develop huge solar/hydrogen projects up north. One of the concerns however will be the effect of a warming climate will have on living conditions in far north Australia - in fact many, many regions of Australia. That issue isn't going away and will need to be factored in at some stage.

https://asianrehub.com/
https://www.climatechangeinaustrali...s_page_media/176/CCIA_Australian_cities_1.pdf

I'm not talking about the basic process, I'm talking about processes and industries that can be built that make use of the energy.
Australia will become a third world country, when the easily extracted minerals are depleted, then global warming will have an effect when no one can run a air con. Maybe then they will wake up.
Another way of looking at it is, no one is certain what the effect of global warming will actually be, there is certain degree of assumption.
Everyone knows, what effect having no raw materials to export, will do to Australia's living standards and it is happening every day in larger and larger quantities in the back of trucks.
It is a shame no one seems to worry about that, IMO it will have a much bigger influence on our children than the emissions Australia makes, but no one worries about that while sitting back with their feet up sipping on the chardonay..

 

[basilio]

I'm not talking about the basic process, I'm talking about processes and industries that can be built that make use of the energy.
Australia will become a third world country, when the easily extracted minerals are depleted, then global warming will have an effect when no one can run a air con. Maybe then they will wake up.

Point taken.
Your saying that with the energy and hydrogen from these new projects we should be creating industries that transform raw materials into more finished products. That could be further refinement or full on manufacturing.

My hesitation about the effects of global warming on the climate in Northern Australia still stands. No one wants to talk about this but we are tracking for a situation where living in these areas may not be possible in the medium term future.

It doesn't need to be super, super hot all the time to make a place nonviable. Weeks of extreme temperature would be sufficient.


Climate projections for the Pilbara
Climate projections show very high confidence for substantial temperature increases to continue in the Pilbara, with the north-west of Western Australia warming more than elsewhere in Australia.

Annual average temperature is projected to increase:

• by 2030 a rise of 0.6–1.5°C for all emission scenarios
• by 2090 a rise of 1.5–3.1°C for medium (RCP4.5) and 3.1–5.6°C for high (RCP8.5) emission trajectories.

Annual rainfall is projected to remain largely unchanged to 2090 and there is high confidence that natural rainfall variability will remain the primary driver of rainfall changes to 2030. There is medium confidence that tropical cyclones will become less frequent in future, but will increase in intensity.

There is high confidence that potential evaporation will increase, but only medium confidence in the magnitude of the change.

https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/climate-change/climate-pilbara-region-western-australia

 

[jbocker]

There are plans to develop huge solar/hydrogen projects up north. One of the concerns however will be the effect of a warming climate will have on living conditions in far north Australia - in fact many, many regions of Australia. That issue isn't going away and will need to be factored in at some stage.

With these abundant sources of energy have HUGE discounts to local industries, housing and amenities to promote the regions. There are towns scattered all through the country in dire need of population work (and water). There needs to be a catalyst to add into the equation VERY CHEAP POWER might be it. Use free sunlight to provide the power for industries and desalination of water.

 

[sptrawler]

Point taken.
Your saying that with the energy and hydrogen from these new projects we should be creating industries that transform raw materials into more finished products. That could be further refinement or full on manufacturing.

My hesitation about the effects of global warming on the climate in Northern Australia still stands. No one wants to talk about this but we are tracking for a situation where living in these areas may not be possible in the medium term future.

It doesn't need to be super, super hot all the time to make a place nonviable. Weeks of extreme temperature would be sufficient.


Climate projections for the Pilbara
Climate projections show very high confidence for substantial temperature increases to continue in the Pilbara, with the north-west of Western Australia warming more than elsewhere in Australia.

Annual average temperature is projected to increase:

• by 2030 a rise of 0.6–1.5°C for all emission scenarios
• by 2090 a rise of 1.5–3.1°C for medium (RCP4.5) and 3.1–5.6°C for high (RCP8.5) emission trajectories.

Annual rainfall is projected to remain largely unchanged to 2090 and there is high confidence that natural rainfall variability will remain the primary driver of rainfall changes to 2030. There is medium confidence that tropical cyclones will become less frequent in future, but will increase in intensity.

There is high confidence that potential evaporation will increase, but only medium confidence in the magnitude of the change.

https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/climate-change/climate-pilbara-region-western-australia

Bas you don't need to tell me about how hot it is up North, I lived up there as a kid in the 60's and with my young family in the early 80's, with no air conditioning.
The fact is if Australia stays on the same dig it and ship it trajectory, they wont be affluent enough to do anything about climate change, they will be too busy worrying about where their food is going to come from like most other third world countries.
We talk about how the middle East will be in trouble when oil runs out, well in reality we have the same fate, it is just we don't talk about it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...-to-australian-manufacturing-revival/12481568
From the article:
Australia only produces two thirds of the amount of manufactured goods it consumes while most developed nations produce excess.

Manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has fallen from almost 30 per cent in the 1950s and 60s to just under 6 per cent last year.

 

[basilio]

Bas you don't need to tell me about how hot it is up North, I lived up there as a kid in the 60's and with my young family in the early 80's, with no air conditioning.

Clearly SP you know how hot it was 30 years ago. Stinking hot for sure from the trips I took.
Well it can and all understandings will get hotter still.
There is a point where plants ,animals and people can't survive..

 

[sptrawler]

There is a point where plants ,animals and people can't survive..

Yes there is and it isn't all related to climate change.

 

[SirRumpole]

One view on the housing market.

https://theconversation.com/when-ho...an-house-prices-and-how-to-get-it-back-144076

"Broadening annual land value taxes to primary residences as well as investors housing would be part of the change, introduced at a low initial rate and with options for delayed payment or borrowing against future sales for those on low incomes."

Stuff that for a joke, these are already in place and are called council rates.

 

[sptrawler]

Well if Mark McGowan gets his was, the price of houses in W.A country towns, may at last show a glimmer of hope.
This is something that should have been done years ago IMO.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...-longer-sustainable/12476202?section=business
Councils in Western Australia have thrown their support behind a possible move away from resource companies using interstate fly in, fly out (FIFO) workers.
Today Premier Mark McGowan called on resources companies to employ state-based workers.

"I don't think flying in workers from over east is sustainable any longer," he said.

At last a company with some sense, all workers will be local based, no FIFO.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-19/no-fifo-workers-at-new-pilbara-urea-plant/12570494
What a great move IMO.
Very hard to build a bigger better Australia, when you aren't building anything, just flying people in and out from capital cities.
How do you start communities, apprenticeships, local jobs, local industries, if you don't have locals?
FIFO, Australia, raping Australia IMO.

 

[SirRumpole]

Is the true state of the property market being covered up ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...g-internal-tensions/12584112?section=politics

 

[over9k]

Property prices where?

There's a LOT of boomers getting ready to GTFO of the hellscape that the cities have become. I can't say I blame them. Sell your three bedroom ensuiteless unit for a lazy million, move to the country, buy a palace, live the livestyle...

Even gen Y'ers are all either planning to leave the cities or already have. I know a sum total of one couple that's stayed in sydney and not intending to leave at some point. One.

There's even that series "escape to the country" running on ABC now, and we actually have interstate/intrastate migration patterns to show how people are moving.

Like London, if not for the migration, a lot of populations would actually be in decline.

 

[wayneL]

TBH. Whatever the RE market does, it will take at least two or three years to play out.

To expect a trajectory now with all the government distortion present is a bit foolish IMO.

I expect substantially down, to a greater or lesser degree depending on local factors, but I guess that depends on what continues to happen on a central bank level.

 

[wayneL]

Property prices where?

There's a LOT of boomers getting ready to GTFO of the hellscape that the cities have become. I can't say I blame them. Sell your three bedroom ensuiteless unit for a lazy million, move to the country, buy a palace, live the livestyle...

Even gen Y'ers are all either planning to leave the cities or already have. I know a sum total of one couple that's stayed in sydney and not intending to leave at some point. One.

There's even that series "escape to the country" running on ABC now, and we actually have interstate/intrastate migration patterns to show how people are moving.

Like London, if not for the migration, a lot of populations would actually be in decline.

Yep.

I'm on Brisbane semi rural outskirts.... and I want to get further away from the lunacy too.

I'm thinking Margaret River, growing dreads and making pottery and hemp cloths or something like that

 

[IFocus]

Yep.

I'm on Brisbane semi rural outskirts.... and I want to get further away from the lunacy too.

I'm thinking Margaret River, growing dreads and making pottery and hemp cloths or something like that

I used to be a rate payer down there, a lot of my mates are still there, they mad rabbit lefties

It has changed some what with the FIFO but still has some charm I guess.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@wayneL @IFocus . The downturn in Australian immigration due to travel bans worldwide will affect the housing market in the larger cities certainly. Rural and regional areas will see an increase in sales, but I believe there is a huge hidden backlog in those properties, so prices may not increase so much in places such as Margaret River.

While many years ago I was a great believer in Mining and FIFO to regenerate the North and West, I am aware of the social, in particular substance use problems attendant on the mining boom. In retrospect I would now oppose it. One needs to be careful one's only neighbour for 100 acres is not Stephen Bannon re-arranging his jacuzzi room.

gg

 

[over9k]

Yep.

I'm on Brisbane semi rural outskirts.... and I want to get further away from the lunacy too.

I'm thinking Margaret River, growing dreads and making pottery and hemp cloths or something like that

Depends on the state for me.

If I lived in melbourne, it'd be gippsland or yarra valley (I haven't been out as far as sale etc yet but want to take a look), if I lived in sydney it'd be wollongong if I was going to live on the coast or if I just went inland it'd be to dubbo, if I lived in brisbane it'd be further north to airlie beach or something like that (or maybe somewhere around the sunshine coast) or toowoomba way if I went inland.

Nowhere reaaally stood out to me when I lived in adelaide and I haven't lived in perth yet but there's a lot of coastline between broome & fremantle so I'm sure there'd be somewhere nice to find.

Tell you one place that a LOT of boomers are moving to though: Tasmania. My parents live there now and the amount of retirement villages, interstate retired boomers buying vacant blocks and building on them and so forth is beyond belief. That was another one that the ABC actually did a whole series on (tasmania booming property market, population growth etc etc).

There isn't much of tasmania that isn't absolutely gorgeous/the perfect place to retire though so I can't say I blame them. My parents have made friends with an interstate couple and apparently all of their still-interstate friends are all seriously thinking about moving down as well.

 

[wayneL]

Depends on the state for me.

If I lived in melbourne, it'd be gippsland or yarra valley (I haven't been out as far as sale etc yet but want to take a look), if I lived in sydney it'd be wollongong if I was going to live on the coast or if I just went inland it'd be to dubbo, if I lived in brisbane it'd be further north to airlie beach or something like that (or maybe somewhere around the sunshine coast) or toowoomba way if I went inland.

Nowhere reaaally stood out to me when I lived in adelaide and I haven't lived in perth yet but there's a lot of coastline between broome & fremantle so I'm sure there'd be somewhere nice to find.

Tell you one place that a LOT of boomers are moving to though: Tasmania. My parents live there now and the amount of retirement villages, interstate retired boomers buying vacant blocks and building on them and so forth is beyond belief. That was another one that the ABC actually did a whole series on (tasmania booming property market, population growth etc etc).

There isn't much of tasmania that isn't absolutely gorgeous/the perfect place to retire though so I can't say I blame them. My parents have made friends with an interstate couple and apparently all of their still-interstate friends are all seriously thinking about moving down as well.

I've lost 5 clients to Tasmania in the last 12 months and none were actually boomers. Several others are talking about it. So yeah. RE aint cheap down there anymore though.

Perth... Heading north head gets hot and bloody windy, the south-west is cool and pleasant. Not including Margaret River there are some really really nice spots.

Qld.... I actually quite like the sunshine coast. You can keep Toowoomba,although there are still some and pleasant aspects of it, I think it's going downhill... fast.

 

[over9k]

I've lost 5 clients to Tasmania in the last 12 months and none were actually boomers. Several others are talking about it. So yeah. RE aint cheap down there anymore though.

Perth... Heading north head gets hot and bloody windy, the south-west is cool and pleasant. Not including Margaret River there are some really really nice spots.

Qld.... I actually quite like the sunshine coast. You can keep Toowoomba,although there are still some and pleasant aspects of it, I think it's going downhill... fast.

Yeah I'm with you RE: toowoomba a bit. I just meant as a country vs coast kind of thing.

Hobart's only the same price as adelaide, so hardly expensive. Key difference is that hobart has 1/5th of the population, so you can literally live in a country town and still not even be as far out as adelaide's outskirts, let alone melbourne or sydney.

Those people that live 60-90 minutes commute from work are absolutely insane IMO. And not even from a time perspective, you look at travel costs vs just paying a bit extra rent to live closer and you quickly realise you're adding 10 hours of commuting to save like $50/week in rent.

Melbourne's outer suburbs like pakenham (which literally used to be a country town and is now a suburb) are the equivalent of oatlands to hobart in tasmania. It's just insane.

But with the rise of work-from-home meaning that even once coronavirus is over people will not be returning to full time office work (probably only going back in for the odd client meeting etc) I can see a lot more people moving waaay out and just dealing with the long commute to work when it's only once a fortnight or something.

Hell, you could even live in a different state and just fly in if you absolutely had to.

The times are a-changin'.

 

[wayneL]

Yeah I'm with you RE: toowoomba a bit. I just meant as a country vs coast kind of thing.

Hobart's only the same price as adelaide, so hardly expensive. Key difference is that hobart has 1/5th of the population, so you can literally live in a country town and still not even be as far out as adelaide's outskirts, let alone melbourne or sydney.

Those people that live 60-90 minutes commute from work are absolutely insane IMO. And not even from a time perspective, you look at travel costs vs just paying a bit extra rent to live closer and you quickly realise you're adding 10 hours of commuting to save like $50/week in rent.

Melbourne's outer suburbs like pakenham (which literally used to be a country town and is now a suburb) are the equivalent of oatlands to hobart in tasmania. It's just insane.

But with the rise of work-from-home meaning that even once coronavirus is over people will not be returning to full time office work (probably only going back in for the odd client meeting etc) I can see a lot more people moving waaay out and just dealing with the long commute to work when it's only once a fortnight or something.

Hell, you could even live in a different state and just fly in if you absolutely had to.

The times are a-changin'.

Tell you what, if I didn't have to take a 50% realisable income cut, I'd seriously consider looking at Tas and coast into retirement. Hobart seems like a nice sized city.

 

[over9k]

It's lovely. It's sooooo relaxed. But yes, work is thin on the ground there and being a small place it works on connections. Unless you have some kind of nepotistic ticket into the public service (which earns nationally standardised wages, so you'd get the same salary in hobart as you would in sydney if you can find the same position as being a state it has to have all those publicly funded bodies and institutions that a state does) then you're going to have to take a serious income cut.

Source: I grew up there.

I left years ago, but still visit the family pretty frequently.