The future of Australian property prices

[qldfrog]

True, they built dam and did not have to wait 10 y of red tape for that
An idea for our 20pc unemployment problem

Also a much bigger population for about the same land mass so they need to decentralise more.

They also make much more use of groundwater for domestic and industrial use than we do. Available and potable water supplies is probably the most limiting factor for decentralisation in Australia.

 

[Value Collector]

Do you live in a rural area yourself, or are you one of the lemmings ?

I do live in a rural area and apart from seasonal fruit picking the majority of the jobs have gone to China or India. There needs to be more than just lip service paid by politicians to decentralisation, regional areas need to actually be made more attractive before people will move and its up to governments to put money where their mouths are and get more services and permanent jobs into the "bush".

I am not in a “forever home” at the moment, I am in an area where I have some rental properties while I renovate them, I am certainly not going to be moving back into the Sydney rat race again, (been there done that)

but I am not suggesting people have to live in rural areas, there are heaps of nice towns up and down the coast with cheaper property prices.

I also suggested higher density dwellings, it’s a simple fact that if we all want to live in large capital cities, out bidding each other for detached house and land is not going to be a way to reduce pricing, there is only so many houses that fit inside a certain area.

 

[SirRumpole]

I also suggested higher density dwellings, it’s a simple fact that if we all want to live in large capital cities, out bidding each other for detached house and land is not going to be a way to reduce pricing, there is only so many houses that fit inside a certain area.

Well, that's true and apartments suit a lot of people. The days of the picket fence are over, but it's a matter of whether people want it that way or it's forced on them.

 

[sptrawler]

Well, that's true and apartments suit a lot of people. The days of the picket fence are over, but it's a matter of whether people want it that way or it's forced on them.

There really isnt any other option, if everybody wants to live in the same space, the problem becomes trying to find jobs, for the increase in people who want to live there.
The more people, doesn't equate to the same proportion of extra jobs, then the unemployment increases and the lefties complain about the lack of jobs and people not being able to afford to live there.
Just shows how F@#cking stupid everyone is.

 

[Value Collector]

Well, that's true and apartments suit a lot of people. The days of the picket fence are over, but it's a matter of whether people want it that way or it's forced on them.

It is a choice, if you want a big house on a quarter acre block, move out of the city.

 

[SirRumpole]

It is a choice, if you want a big house on a quarter acre block, move out of the city.

It's a circular argument, people go where the jobs are and they are not in the city.

Our Ponzi population import scheme is being driven by real estate agents, property developers and investors who want the biggest number of buyers to drive the prices up at the expense of the average home buyer.

It's about time that first home buyers got a better deal and hopefully the immigration pause due to covid will give them one for a while.

 

[SirRumpole]

It's a circular argument, people go where the jobs are and they are not in the city.

I meant they are not in the *bush*.

 

[Value Collector]

It's a circular argument, people go where the jobs.

Well, not entirely.

There are large sections of the population that don’t require a job, retires etc that can relocate away, and jobs will follow Them.

Also, to a certain extent the government can relocate large amounts of its work force away from cities, think about all the army, navy and air force That are located in Sydney for example, check out the size of Holsworthy army base, Sydney city and the inner city suburbs would fit inside it.

 

[SirRumpole]

Well, not entirely.

There are large sections of the population that don’t require a job, retires etc that can relocate away, and jobs will follow Them.

Also, to a certain extent the government can relocate large amounts of its work force away from cities, think about all the army, navy and air force That are located in Sydney for example, check out the size of Holsworthy army base, Sydney city and the inner city suburbs would fit inside it.

Fair points indeed, which is why I said governments need to do more planning and ensure services are available in regional areas before they can expect people (especially retirees who need a certain range of services) to move there.

 

[joeno]

People love racing those rats in Sydney, and then wonder why they can't have free range children.

Lol if that's your idea of Sydney then you will not like London Oxford Street / London Bridge (in usual times). Agoraphibics nightmare. It makes Sydney look like a vacation town in comparison.

On topic though, i own a house in Sydney. Somewhat regret that decision due to house correction in the last years. would've been better to rent and save up to buy somewhere more affordable with higher growth rates.

I'm not pessimistic about house prices however. Since we're likely to see higher inflation and asset price increases in the coming years. Also Sydney is not all that expensive when you factor everything in terms of USD rather than our beaten down AUD.

 

[Bill M]

Fair points indeed, which is why I said governments need to do more planning and ensure services are available in regional areas before they can expect people (especially retirees who need a certain range of services) to move there.

Yes absolutely! To me having a decent public hospital near me is a key point as to where I live. I have read some horror stories from people living in western NSW where their local hospital could not see them and they had to go drive 300 kms to the next hospital. No way would I put up with that, it's insane.

Like you say, if they want people to live out of major cities then how about providing the services. God help you if you get an illness that requires travel to Sydney for treatment. Too much for one to cope with on top of their illness. Silly governments, full of ideas but no idea how to action plan them.

 

[Value Hunter]

I have always been of the view (I was even saying the same thing to people 5 years ago) that you should never buy newly built properties because building quality in Australia has continually degraded over time. I would say a good general rule of thumb is not to buy anything built this century. Sure properties from the 1970s and 1980s sometimes might have minor issues with minor leakages, inadequate soundproofing, etc but usually its nothing compared to existential structural issues that threaten many newer buildings.

Also if a property has already been around for 20 years and stood the test of time with no major problems occurring you know its probably pretty safe.

 

[Value Hunter]

Australia already has a higher home ownership rate than most other countries, with only 30% of Australians renting vs 70% owning , compared to other countries such as Germany where those figures are pretty much reversed where 61% of the population rent and only 39% own.

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We can argue all we want, at the end of the day its the fact that Australia's population attempt to squeeze into a few capital cities rather than spreading out while also wanting detached homes
that keeps the price high.

Value Collector I think you are missing the point that in a lot of smaller countries (I mean smaller in terms of land mass) like Germany or Italy, etc that a lot of these towns are much closer to the major cities.

There are many small towns in Germany where you can live there and drive 45 minutes to Berlin or Munich or Frankfurt, or Hamburg, etc. So people can live in a smaller city or small town, etc and commute to work in the major cities.

Sure we have some people that live in Geelong and commute to work in Melbourne or people that live in Wollongong and commute to work in Sydney, but places like Geelong or Wollongong are the exception. Most of the smaller cities or towns are way too far away for people to commute to work in a major city. So its not really fair to compare us to a country like Germany.

In 8 hours you can drive from one side of Germany to the other side. In Australia there are so many regional towns that are 10 or 12 hours drive away from the nearest capital city!!

 

[Bill M]

I would say a good general rule of thumb is not to buy anything built this century. Sure properties from the 1970s and 1980s sometimes might have minor issues with minor leakages, inadequate soundproofing, etc but usually its nothing compared to existential structural issues that threaten many newer buildings.

Spot on and I've lived in unit blocks in Sydney most of my life and can vouch for what you have said. Look at all those 3 storey walk ups built in the 1960's, 1970's unit blocks in Dee Why for example. Hundreds upon hundreds of them and they are all still standing strong. There is a 10 storey 60's style block built brick by brick in my area, still standing strong and yet anything built in the last 10 years have got serious problems.

Why is it so? NSW dipstick Government including the present one that has abolished high rise 7 year building defects insurance on anything over 3 storey high and no Government engineers checking sites. The old private sector certifying private sector works never has and never will work. It's like the wild west, builders can do what they like and get away with it and changing specs along the way. Just the other day I saw 2 aircon installers walk out a non occupied almost finished mid rise unit block, I said looking good, they replied "looks good but **** quality", kind of sums it all up. And still the NSW Government lets them build crap with no consequences. Opal Tower, Mascot Towers anyone? As far as I understand Queensland has the best building code in the country now, with Government inspectors.

 

[SirRumpole]

Like you say, if they want people to live out of major cities then how about providing the services. God help you if you get an illness that requires travel to Sydney for treatment. Too much for one to cope with on top of their illness. Silly governments, full of ideas but no idea how to action plan them.

It's also about getting highly skilled personnel ie doctors and nurses to move to regional areas.

We have a brand new hospital in my area (Orange) but people I know still had to go to Sydney for treatment because that's where the specialists are.

Country areas have trouble keeping doctors of all types including GP's , mainly I think because of the fear that they will be left alone without sufficient backup and they will never get a break.

 

[wayneL]

It's also about getting highly skilled personnel ie doctors and nurses to move to regional areas.

We have a brand new hospital in my area (Orange) but people I know still had to go to Sydney for treatment because that's where the specialists are.

Country areas have trouble keeping doctors of all types including GP's , mainly I think because of the fear that they will be left alone without sufficient backup and they will never get a break.

Wow, and property ain't cheap there either!

Holy Dooley!

 

[sptrawler]

It's also about getting highly skilled personnel ie doctors and nurses to move to regional areas.

We have a brand new hospital in my area (Orange) but people I know still had to go to Sydney for treatment because that's where the specialists are.

Country areas have trouble keeping doctors of all types including GP's , mainly I think because of the fear that they will be left alone without sufficient backup and they will never get a break.

Also the investment opportunity and FOMO, drives them to the major cities, that's where the money is.

 

[sptrawler]

Spot on and I've lived in unit blocks in Sydney most of my life and can vouch for what you have said. Look at all those 3 storey walk ups built in the 1960's, 1970's unit blocks in Dee Why for example. Hundreds upon hundreds of them and they are all still standing strong. There is a 10 storey 60's style block built brick by brick in my area, still standing strong and yet anything built in the last 10 years have got serious problems.

Why is it so? NSW dipstick Government including the present one that has abolished high rise 7 year building defects insurance on anything over 3 storey high and no Government engineers checking sites. The old private sector certifying private sector works never has and never will work. It's like the wild west, builders can do what they like and get away with it and changing specs along the way. Just the other day I saw 2 aircon installers walk out a non occupied almost finished mid rise unit block, I said looking good, they replied "looks good but **** quality", kind of sums it all up. And still the NSW Government lets them build crap with no consequences. Opal Tower, Mascot Towers anyone? As far as I understand Queensland has the best building code in the country now, with Government inspectors.

I had a second story extension put on the house, it was unbelievable the poor quality tradesmen and complete lack of regard, if I wasn't retired and watching them it would have been a complete disaster.
But it wouldn't have shown up, because most of the dodgy stuff was under the outer coverings, eg a 2.4m window required a lintel strenghening, the steel wasn't there so they just carried on regardless I had to threaten them to get it done post build.
The bathroom sub tile waterproof membrane the contractor didn't have any plastic corner molding, so said I will use cardboard, while he was getting his gear ready I drove to bunnings and bought the correct gear.
The builders, pay the subbies crap money, so the subbies just want to get in and out ASAP, if the correct gear isn't there they improvise they don't intend coming back later.
Absolute nightmare, heaven help people who just leave it completely to the builder.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Two factors at play (imo)

1. In the 1990's, there was significant change to building codes. Corporatisation, Deregulation and, even worse, self-regulation occurred. Things were dumbed down.

Building Code of Australia (BCA) is contained within the National Construction Code (NCC) and provides the minimum necessary requirements for safety, health, amenity and sustainability in the design and construction of new buildings (and new building work in existing buildings) throughout Australia

States nthen developed their own regulations (it's a Federal system).

2. Also, there's a marked difference between private residences built as one-offs, mostly by sole contractors and subbies, and large scale jobs that have unionised work forces. Not saying one is better than the other.

 

[Value Collector]

Lol if that's your idea of Sydney then you will not like London Oxford Street / London Bridge (in usual times). Agoraphibics nightmare. It makes Sydney look like a vacation town in comparison.

I don't mind visiting London or Sydney for vacation, or short term visits, But I lived in Sydney for 18 years, and having moved away could not imagine choosing to live there again.

Sure there is some beautiful parts of Sydney, its a great town, but for day to day life I prefer to not have to pay a higher cost of living for the benefit of sitting in heavy traffic.