Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The future of Australian property prices

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sptrawler said:
IMO it may well happen in the short term, but alas I think in the long term the immigration will continue. Australia without immigration has a falling birth rate, everyone screams about immigration, but the fact is we enjoy our lifestyle and don't want it ruined by paying for kids....
So there is two options:
Option 1. Immigration.
Option 2. Encourage people in Australia to have more children.

So immigration is here to stay ...
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the borders are closed; have been since March. Population won't increase for a while, but its my speculation we'll see mass immigration afterwards. Here and NZ. Call them Covid Refugees, voting with their feet, the rich ones with some money and no desire to stay in densely packed northern hemisphere food deficit cities. Chinese who have seen their one party state enforce social control (again), Europeans who have stayed in airless boxes for weeks, and probably people from USA who can see what's happening there (militias in state parliaments, poorly-functioning health system, fractured governance).

Of course, let's wait till the second wave of the virus; got to get through winter yet.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
the borders are closed; have been since March. Population won't increase for a while, but its my speculation we'll see mass immigration afterwards. Here and NZ. Call them Covid Refugees, voting with their feet, the rich ones with some money and no desire to stay in densely packed northern hemisphere food deficit cities. Chinese who have seen their one party state enforce social control (again), Europeans who have stayed in airless boxes for weeks, and probably people from USA who can see what's happening there (militias in state parliaments, poorly-functioning health system, fractured governance).

Of course, let's wait till the second wave of the virus; got to get through winter yet.
Click to expand...

Those that have money in the Northern hemisphere or Asia don't live in airless apartments, they can afford a life just as good here back where they live.

those that live in airless apartments can't afford to live in Australia and move anyway.

There will be some % in between that might make the move but don't see it so dramatic as compared to Australia having 0 cases and deaths being a true safe haven

Chinese who have seen their one party state enforce social control might have to juggle between Australia where everybody is starting to hate them and not feeling safe in public
 
moXJO said:
Imo immigration is the reason for ever higher prices. Jamming millions more people into the country will keep the prices high. Be interesting to see the aftermath of COVID.
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Agree, the high immigration has resulted in pushing prices higher, however :
1. The RBA have no more bullets left to decrease unemployment
2. If the govnuts keep high levels of immigration, don't you think the soon 15% of the population that will be without a job might get just a little upset. Govnuts currently can hide the true figures with all the cash they are handing out.

So if we get back to the levels that cause high property prices:
1. Cheap credit, think the end of the cycle is close
2. High immigration, govnuts can try defending that, but will fail, when so many Australians do not have a job.
3. Allowing foreigners to purchase residential properties (shelter for Australians), before anyone says it is against the law, laws need to be enforced, but they have not. So the govnuts can turn a blind eye to it, but for how long?
4. Part of the problem, was allowing people to leverage their super in SMSF against property, so the only cash that is left to tap is super, well they have just allowed that. Short term sugar hit for long term pain.

So, it would be great if anyone can point out how property prices will increase in the current environment (next 6months) and the next 3 years.
 
satanoperca said:
Agree, the high immigration has resulted in pushing prices higher, however :
1. The RBA have no more bullets left to decrease unemployment
2. If the govnuts keep high levels of immigration, don't you think the soon 15% of the population that will be without a job might get just a little upset. Govnuts currently can hide the true figures with all the cash they are handing out.

So if we get back to the levels that cause high property prices:
1. Cheap credit, think the end of the cycle is close
2. High immigration, govnuts can try defending that, but will fail, when so many Australians do not have a job.
3. Allowing foreigners to purchase residential properties (shelter for Australians), before anyone says it is against the law, laws need to be enforced, but they have not. So the govnuts can turn a blind eye to it, but for how long?
4. Part of the problem, was allowing people to leverage their super in SMSF against property, so the only cash that is left to tap is super, well they have just allowed that. Short term sugar hit for long term pain.

So, it would be great if anyone can point out how property prices will increase in the current environment (next 6months) and the next 3 years.
Click to expand...
If they were going to do it:
Pump immigration/students. Lower restrictions for buying. Watch Chinese investors flood back in.
We just gave our nation a gold star safety rating.

Everyone underestimates just how many Chinese investors willing to spend in Australia there are. We are a safe haven for Chinese who don't want the CCP getting their grubby hands on their investment.
India is on the rise as well.

Lot of people with money in the world. And only 25 million or so of us. All government has so far been hell bent on doubling our population. And we seem to be willing to sell everything in a crisis.

Look at what happened after the gfc.

I don't like it but it wouldn't surprise me.
 
moXJO said:
If they were going to do it:
Pump immigration/students. Lower restrictions for buying. Watch Chinese investors flood back in.
We just gave our nation a gold star safety rating.

Everyone underestimates just how many Chinese investors willing to spend in Australia there are. We are a safe haven for Chinese who don't want the CCP getting their grubby hands on their investment.
India is on the rise as well.

Lot of people with money in the world. And only 25 million or so of us. All government has so far been hell bent on doubling our population. And we seem to be willing to sell everything in a crisis.

Look at what happened after the gfc.

I don't like it but it wouldn't surprise me.
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I think this is what people forget, Kev let the cat out of the bag, when he said Australia needs a minimum population of 50 million.
Immigration is the only way that will happen, baby bonus was shot down by the general public.
So it boils down to the coalition encouraging wealthy Asian migrants, or Labor encouraging refugees.
But one way or another our population will increase, thats for sure.
 
sptrawler said:
I think this is what people forget, Kev let the cat out of the bag, when he said Australia needs a minimum population of 50 million.
Immigration is the only way that will happen, baby bonus was shot down by the general public.
So it boils down to the coalition encouraging wealthy Asian migrants, or Labor encouraging refugees.
But one way or another our population will increase, thats for sure.
Click to expand...

The one area that has been driving economic growth and housing prices might soon disappear, immigration.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...-slowdown-shock-20200501-p54p3r.html#comments

Basically : net immigration could take a massive hit, >50%

What is even more interesting is the comments on this article.

Maybe we can make Australia be great again, through innovation and hardwork and not through the ponzi scheme of property and mass immigration.

I get excited by these challenging times, need to think outside the box, create, innovate and work hard.

Lets see what the future holds.

Property down 20% over the next 2 years and stagnate for a long time.

The world has changed, embrass the future and adapt.
 
Role of the Banks. How important will a strong banking system be to keeping the economy functioning let along the property market ?

Are Australia's big four banks equipped for recession?

Peter King assumed control of Westpac just four weeks ago.

A 25-year veteran of the outfit, he joined shortly after it almost imploded during the recession of the early 1990s when it was crippled by an ongoing series of soaring debts; first from busted entrepreneurs who went belly-up after the 1987 market crash and then commercial property.

This morning, Mr King will deliver Westpac's first half result, at a time when Australia again is tipping into recession, with unemployment soaring amidst the economy's deepest and sharpest contraction in a century.

Like his contemporaries at ANZ and National Australia Bank last week, Mr King will announce that he's been forced to put aside massive reserves to cover rising bad debts and defaults.

For Westpac, that will be around $2.2 billion — cash that will come straight off the bottom line.

And like his rivals, Mr King will agonise over whether to cut or even suspend dividends to the army of investors who rely upon the steady stream of cash as income.

How safe are our banks from COVID-19?
big-four-banks-custom-data.jpg
The COVID-19 pandemic is forecast to wipe hundreds of billions of dollars from Australia's economic activity. Stephen Long looks at whether the major banks can survive the inevitable losses.

Read more
NAB last week slashed its payout while ANZ cut its altogether.

The amount of money involved is enormous.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-04/are-australias-big-four-banks-equipped-for-recession/12210538
 
Hooray, at last the ponzi scheme, is getting a bit of air.
Pauline gets down and dirty, she doesn't leave anyone wondering what she thinks, the PC lobby has lost a bit of cred with the virus IMO.:2twocents

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...k/news-story/29c5e0ad0a4ac0c40784948b2fdbf364

Ms Keneally said the coronavirus pandemic had given the nation an opportunity to “put Australian workers first” and “shift away” from temporary foreign labour.

“While Australia’s high level of migration played a key role in our economic prosperity, in recent years the shape and size of our intake has hurt many Australian workers, contributing to unemployment, underemployment and low wage growth,” she wrote.

“The post-COVID-19 question we must ask now is this. When we restart our migration program, do we want migrants to return to Australia in the same numbers and in the same composition as before the crisis? Our answer should be no.”

She said governments run by both major parties had relied on high levels of migration to fuel economic growth — calling it a “lazy approach”.

“Letting lots of migrants come to Australia is an easier way to drive economic growth than increasing productivity or investing in skills or training,” said Ms Keneally.

Ms Hanson quickly pounced on Ms Keneally’s piece yesterday, claiming Labor had adopted her own party’s rhetoric after criticising it for years.

“It’s enough to make you sick,” she wrote on Facebook.

“Despite decades of being called ‘racist’ for my strong stance on jobs for Australians first, and my constant call to reduce immigration numbers to keep up with the country’s infrastructure demands, the Labor Party may finally be listening.

“I guess we’ll have to see whether they’re genuine when we get back to parliament.
The One Nation leader continued to rub it in during an appearance on Channel 9’s Today program this morning.

“Kristina Keneally, first time she’s probably agreed with me,” Ms Hanson said.

“To call for protecting Australian jobs, and to cut immigration — you know, when I said it I was called ‘racist’. When Kristina Keneally says it it’s supposed to be ‘controversial’. It’s a debate that we need to have.

“Why shouldn’t we protect Australian jobs? Why shouldn’t we look at immigration numbers? The government’s used immigration over the years purely to prop up the economy.

“It’s just ridiculous we keep bringing these numbers, people who are not compatible with our culture and our way of life, and yet we bring them in purely to prop up the economy. It’s got to stop somewhere, otherwise it’s a Ponzi scheme.
 
The tide is starting to turn on Australian property prices, with capital city price growth turning negative for the first time since August
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...et-auctions-coronavirus-capital-growth-2020-4

In theory Australia and New Zealand should not come out too badly over the covid19 epidemic as China will recover quickly. However, America and Europe will probably see a sharp slide in property prices of up to 30% in some regions. The UK is already seeing a rise in mortgage rates and the government's NSandI savings recent rate reductions have been reversed and this despite the Bank of England's Minimum lending rate being reduced to 0.05%.
https://www.moneyobserver.com/news/nsi-reverses-cuts-to-premium-bonds-and-interest-rates

The USA is now putting pressure on Asia and China as an America first policy hardens and it becomes everyone for themselves. Certainly I'd prefer to see a gold bar on my shelf rather than the deeds for a property. Buy American and shun everything you possibly can that is foreign and especially Chinese. America may put such sanctions on its own companies that have products made in China and they will shut up shop over there, and that may well include Asia.
I expect the UK and America to draw closer together in 2021 to the increasing exclusion of Europe that is now an economic opponent.
America will cutoff aid to very many countries unless they comply with their wishes.

Global US dollar crunch puts pressure on Asia debt
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/global-us-dollar-crunch-puts-pressure-on-asia-debt
The yield on Indonesia's benchmark 10-year bond has climbed to 8.38 per cent, the most since 2018, while that on Malaysia rose to 3.58 per cent, near an eight-month high.

Global markets recoil as Trump threatens US-China trade war
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...trump-us-china-trade-war-coronavirus-covid-19
Reports suggested the White House is crafting renewed import tariffs that would be applied to Chinese imports in retaliation, in a major escalation of the trade standoff.
 
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Property still selling quick round my way. Few extra rentals coming on line. Hopefully rent drops and prices adjust.
 
Reality is not want you want to show, so just hid it, must be getting bad out there, if they pull the perfect index from reporting.

upload_2020-5-20_17-53-57.png
Love the wording, if the indexes don't show green, then we will hide them.

Be interesting if they turn it back on in coming months.

Don't believe the hype, without immigration and decreasing cost of credit, property can only go one way.
 
Well this is certainly a splash of cash for first home buyers in W.A, add to that the depressed housing market and it may be the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for young working couples.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/wa-g...campaign=Insider_08062020_DI&utm_medium=email
From the article:
First-home buyers in Western Australia could receive almost $70,000 in government grants if they build a new home, after the state government announced a building bonus on Sunday.

West Australians could receive up to $45,000 in grants for building a home, with the state government announcing a $20,000 bonus for new residential builds on top of the $25,000 already offered by the HomeBuilder scheme announced by the Morrison government on Thursday.


First-home buyers would also be eligible for the existing $10,000 first home owner grant and stamp duty concessions, meaning some WA first-home buyers could qualify for up to a $69,440 benefit.
 
wayneL said:
LJ Hooker in administration !

Holy Dooley
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Ouch, that will put the fear of god up a few businesses, so much for the papers saying the real estate market is recovering.
Now Morrison's home building package makes sense.
It must be bad.
 
sptrawler said:
Ouch, that will put the fear of god up a few businesses, so much for the papers saying the real estate market is recovering.
Now Morrison's home building package makes sense.
It must be bad.
Click to expand...
More news, it is just some of the entities of the group, but still....

Franchised offices not affected apparently.
 

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