The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

More news, it is just some of the entities of the group, but still....

Franchised offices not affected apparently.

It must be pockets of the market that are being effected.
I know over here in the West (Perth, Mandurah), the property prices haven't really changed much since the fall from the end of the mining boom, you can only hit rock bottom then you just bounce along.
I am seeing some of the real estate agencies, reducing their floor space and trying to lease out the excess.
In Mandurah, I am seeing a lot of the house, units selling, but they are very good value for money.
One I know that sold recently after 2 years on the market, sold to an old couple wanting to get better returns on their nest egg, they must be new to renting because the first thing they did was gut the place.
It wasn't in bad condition, as the previous owner was a single lady in her 70's, so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.
Maybe a lot of SMSF are getting into renting, I personally hope not, as I don't think it is a game for those in their twilight years especially in lower socioeconomic areas.
Just my opinion.

 

[wayneL]

It must be pockets of the market that are being effected.
I know over here in the West (Perth, Mandurah), the property prices haven't really changed much since the fall from the end of the mining boom, you can only hit rock bottom then you just bounce along.
I am seeing some of the real estate agencies, reducing their floor space and trying to lease out the excess.
In Mandurah, I am seeing a lot of the house, units selling, but they are very good value for money.
One I know that sold recently after 2 years on the market, sold to an old couple wanting to get better returns on their nest egg, they must be new to renting because the first thing they did was gut the place.
It wasn't in bad condition, as the previous owner was a single lady in her 70's, so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.
Maybe a lot of SMSF are getting into renting, I personally hope not, as I don't think it is a game for those in their twilight years especially in lower socioeconomic areas.
Just my opinion.

I think dramatic falls, *if any*, will take at least six months to even start to show up and probably play out over 2 to 3 years. The gu'mint is going to move heaven and earth to keep real estate prices propped up, because the bastards are all hocked up to the eyeballs on it.

But, a game I like to play in markets, especially commodity markets is trying to figure out the minimum value... eg, gold when at any lower prices, they start closing mines, coffee when they start plowing in their coffee plants and planting something else and so on.

I thought that with gold at 1200 to 1250 last year.

So what's the minimum price for a property? At what price would it be no longer feasible to even build anything comparable, new? (All things considered of course).

We're probably not far away from that in Perth already, in some sections. yet in other parts of the market I think there is still some over valuation in my opinion.

Similar story in Queenzealand, probably South Australia too.

The other three states I think are going to get very interesting FWIW

 

[SirRumpole]

I think this is what people forget, Kev let the cat out of the bag, when he said Australia needs a minimum population of 50 million.
Immigration is the only way that will happen, baby bonus was shot down by the general public.
So it boils down to the coalition encouraging wealthy Asian migrants, or Labor encouraging refugees.
But one way or another our population will increase, thats for sure.

How about making it more affordable for mums and dads or prospective ones to afford their own roof over their heads, instead of pandering to real estate agents and property investors by bringing in cashed up investors from overseas to drive up prices ?

People won't have kids if they can't afford a house to put them in.

 

[sptrawler]

How about making it more affordable for mums and dads or prospective ones to afford their own roof over their heads, instead of pandering to real estate agents and property investors but bringing in cashed up investors from overseas to drive up prices ?

People won't have kids if they can't afford a house to put them in.

Agree 100%, but while people pay stupid prices for houses, they keep selling, so they keep going up.
In W.A the prices for starter homes, have dropped back to prices of 20 years ago, because people stopped buying after the mining boom fell over and there was a mass exodus.
The other thing that can be done, is give assistance so both husband and wife don't have to work, but everyone screams middle class welfare, so it comes back to immigration.

 

[Tink]

For Victoria..

 

[wayneL]

A trading halt for property?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...ng-for-real-estate-transaction-pause/12363222

I realise the clown world has been upon us for some time now but good God, can things get any more insane?

 

[sptrawler]

A trading halt for property?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...ng-for-real-estate-transaction-pause/12363222

I realise the clown world has been upon us for some time now but good God, can things get any more insane?

Just shows how worried they are, about the domino effect. If the Eastern States property market fell like the W.A market, with the amount of gearing people have over there, it would be a catastrophe.

 

[wayneL]

Just shows how worried they are, about the domino effect. If the Eastern States property market fell like the W.A market, with the amount of gearing people have over there, it would be a catastrophe.

is there any clearer illustration that we no longer live in a capitalist society?

 

[satanoperca]

Went for a 3 hour bike ride around inner city Melbourne today.

Never seems so many retail shops/mainly strip shops with for lease signs since 1990's.

But maybe Australia can prove Newton wrong, gravity is not real when it comes to Australian property prices.

Interesting article.
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...hen-covid-rent-laws-expire-and-welfare-halves

 

[Klogg]

Went for a 3 hour bike ride around inner city Melbourne today.

Never seems so many retail shops/mainly strip shops with for lease signs since 1990's.

But maybe Australia can prove Newton wrong, gravity is not real when it comes to Australian property prices.

Interesting article.
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...hen-covid-rent-laws-expire-and-welfare-halves

Interestingly, it's not every retailer that's having issues.

Shaver Shop, Kmart, Beacon Lighting, Adairs/Mocka, Super Retail Group, Accent Group - these are all doing quite well in the situation.

However, it's usually at the cost of landlords. The retailers have discovered just how strong a good online offering is, so they're willing to ditch stores. Rents are coming down, and quickly.

I'm not so sure this will flow onto house prices though.

 

[Value Collector]

People won't have kids if they can't afford a house to put them in.

Australia already has a higher home ownership rate than most other countries, with only 30% of Australians renting vs 70% owning , compared to other countries such as Germany where those figures are pretty much reversed where 61% of the population rent and only 39% own.

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We can argue all we want, at the end of the day its the fact that Australia's population attempt to squeeze into a few capital cities rather than spreading out while also wanting detached homes
that keeps the price high.

 

[sptrawler]

Went for a 3 hour bike ride around inner city Melbourne today.

Never seems so many retail shops/mainly strip shops with for lease signs since 1990's.

But maybe Australia can prove Newton wrong, gravity is not real when it comes to Australian property prices.

Interesting article.
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...hen-covid-rent-laws-expire-and-welfare-halves

This is the problem, when our major population areas are dependent on the service industries, rather than manufacturing.
My guess is Sydney/Melbourne are heavily dependent on consumer spending, which becomes a real issue when they have gig economy jobs, rather than manufacturing.
If the consumers haven't got a job, the shops don't have customers, that's why the pump priming on welfare payments.
Shows how fragile our economic model is, the only real jobs are in W.A, North Queensland and S.A, but everyone wants to live in Sydney/Melbourne where the jobs rely on someone having the money to pay for your service.
Long term disaster in the making.

 

[SirRumpole]

Australia already has a higher home ownership rate than most other countries, with only 30% of Australians renting vs 70% owning , compared to other countries such as Germany where those figures are pretty much reversed where 61% of the population rent and only 39% own.

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We can argue all we want, at the end of the day its the fact that Australia's population attempt to squeeze into a few capital cities rather than spreading out while also wanting detached homes
that keeps the price high.

That's a pretty simplistic argument. The majority of the jobs are in metro areas because there has been no decent attempt at decentralisation and you can't ignore the fact that our immigration levels have been high for the last 20 years at least which exacerbates the problem.

 

[Value Collector]

That's a pretty simplistic argument.

Its a pretty simplistic problem

The majority of the jobs are in metro areas because there has been no decent attempt at decentralisation

yep, its a chicken / egg situation.

the jobs are in metro areas because thats where the people live, if people move into other areas, it would naturally create Jobs in those areas to service the population.

and you can't ignore the fact that our immigration levels have been high for the last 20 years at least which exacerbates the problem.

Given the size of our country, (even ignoring the desert and out back areas) immigration levels shouldn't be an issue, unless we are all trying to squeeze into a box called Sydney or Melbourne.

 

[sptrawler]

That pretty well sums it up VC, we pander to people demanding their right to live in Sydney and Melbourne, when in reality the whole country needs to be populated to grow.

 

[Value Collector]

That pretty well sums it up VC, we pander to people demanding their right to live in Sydney and Melbourne, when in reality the whole country needs to be populated to grow.

People love racing those rats in Sydney, and then wonder why they can't have free range children.

 

[SirRumpole]

Given the size of our country, (even ignoring the desert and out back areas) immigration levels shouldn't be an issue, unless we are all trying to squeeze into a box called Sydney or Melbourne.

Do you live in a rural area yourself, or are you one of the lemmings ?

I do live in a rural area and apart from seasonal fruit picking the majority of the jobs have gone to China or India. There needs to be more than just lip service paid by politicians to decentralisation, regional areas need to actually be made more attractive before people will move and its up to governments to put money where their mouths are and get more services and permanent jobs into the "bush".

 

[wayneL]

Do you live in a rural area yourself, or are you one of the lemmings ?

I do live in a rural area and apart from seasonal fruit picking the majority of the jobs have gone to China or India. There needs to be more than just lip service paid by politicians to decentralisation, regional areas need to actually be made more attractive before people will move and its up to governments to put money where their mouths are and get more services and permanent jobs into the "bush".

That's one thing I noticed in the US... in the south at least where I have rellies. You'll be driving along some country back road, people with two heads and confederate flags everywhere, and out pops a 100,000sq ft factory with hundreds of cars in the parking lot.

Happened all the time.

As screwed up the US is, they've had a better crack at decentralisation than us.... AND the housing is affordable in those areas.

 

[qldfrog]

And you have buy US, made in USA everywhere, for republicans at least, very strong nationalism

 

[SirRumpole]

That's one thing I noticed in the US... in the south at least where I have rellies. You'll be driving along some country back road, people with two heads and confederate flags everywhere, and out pops a 100,000sq ft factory with hundreds of cars in the parking lot.

Happened all the time.

As screwed up the US is, they've had a better crack at decentralisation than us.... AND the housing is affordable in those areas.

Also a much bigger population for about the same land mass so they need to decentralise more.

They also make much more use of groundwater for domestic and industrial use than we do. Available and potable water supplies is probably the most limiting factor for decentralisation in Australia.