The future of Australian property prices

[trainspotter]

:horse: This debate is like flogging a dead horse...

Both property and shares are great and or poor investments at different points in time....each out performs at differnet times and that depends entirely on which property and which shares are selected....and a multitude of other micro and macro economic factors.....

Clearly some people in here have either pre-concieved ideas or experiences that lead them to believe one is better then the other, and thats their perogative....but, you are wasting your time trying to change other peoples beliefs or convictions....

I suggest put your money where your mouth is and invest in the one you believe in rather then trying to convince others one is better then the other...its a fruitless exercise, achieves nothing and to me at least displays a level of niavity......

Perhaps start discussing exactly which property markets are currently set for exceptional or poor growth and why, exactly which shares are set to under or out perform and discuss reasons why, rather then trying to change each others beliefs or convictions..............that way we all stand to gain from intelligent discussion and debate...

I miss condog

 

[Quincy]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Magoo

Funny how art imitates life now isn't it

Even when FACTS are presented he still refuses to admit he is wrong. Get out of Sydney and open your eyes.

Yeah - funny how art imitates life isn't it

http://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/trainspotter

someone who is very interested in trains and spends time going to stations and recording the numbers of the trains that they see
2. (informal) someone who is odd or boring because they are interested in knowing everything about a particular subject, even very small, unimportant details ⇒ ■ He's a rather over-serious disco trainspotter with a record collection instead of a brain., ⇒ ■ They looked like boring, trainspotter types.

Probably zero chance that you are from Sydney or have ever, ever, EVER lived in Sydney or purchased or owned property in Sydney but hey you are the self-professed expert on the Sydney market aren't you !

Sydney has many property markets, it is not just one property market. As Bill M has alluded to : the Northern Beaches is doing its own thing . . . same as many other Sydney Suburbs that may be forging ahead or otherwise.

 

[trainspotter]

Yeah - funny how art imitates life isn't it

http://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/trainspotter

someone who is very interested in trains and spends time going to stations and recording the numbers of the trains that they see
2. (informal) someone who is odd or boring because they are interested in knowing everything about a particular subject, even very small, unimportant details ⇒ ■ He's a rather over-serious disco trainspotter with a record collection instead of a brain., ⇒ ■ They looked like boring, trainspotter types.

Probably zero chance that you are from Sydney or have ever, ever, EVER lived in Sydney or purchased or owned property in Sydney but hey you are the self-professed expert on the Sydney market aren't you !

Sydney has many property markets, it is not just one property market. As Bill M has alluded to : the Northern Beaches is doing its own thing . . . same as many other Sydney Suburbs that may be forging ahead or otherwise.

Hey ... I resemble that remark. Describes me to a T

I wrote in post #12714 ...

2) Sydney will be the market that will be corrected to be around 15% IMO. Mainly from the HIGH END market contracting which skewiff sales/pricing data. Rest of the country has already stagnated. Started about 3 years ago.

Not just me saying it either ...

"Throughout 2016, we may see further moderate value declines in Sydney and Melbourne," Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic,

The trend reversed after banks raised interest rates for landlords for the first time in five years in July and for owner occupiers in November following a regulatory directive to limit growth in investor mortgages to 10 percent a year and increase the capital the lenders hold against mortgages.
Economists from Macquarie Group to Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecast a decline in prices over the next two years. ANZ Bank said in a note late in November "strong underlying demand" is likely to contain any price declines in the major capital cities to less than 10 percent in the absence of an economic downturn.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/sydn...terly-drop-in-four-years-20160104-glyy7l.html

More sobering stuff here (and it is suburb specific)

http://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-house-prices-drop-3-per-cent-domain-group-20160127-gmd7pl/

I have not been specific on Sydney suburbs other than the statement above and I have stated that there are regional property markets (as in NOT Sydney or even NSW) that have dropped over 20% in a 5 year period.

Sydney? Where is Sydney again?







Never been there

I also have a penchant for this ...

Trainspotter - A person who can successfully identify obscure music a DJ plays. A hardcore trainspotter can take it a step further and identify the source of obscure samples.

Trainspotter: "Thats track B off of the first pressing of So and So record"
Friend: "You're such a trainspotter."

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=trainspotter

Or are you simply feeling empathy for your namesake Quincy?



Go and talk to this guy .. he lives in Sydney

Sydney and Melbourne are done – I called it all the way back in April. So let’s move on and see what actually happens after an area booms?

Firstly, the ridiculous prices paid for properties disappear. That $800k house may achieve $900k in a booming property market due to desperate buyers, but this desperation quickly vanishes when a market cools.

The first sign of this cooling is disappearing Auction sign boards. The ‘For Sale’ board returns. Auctions are great only when 4 or 5 bidders knuckle it out. But with one or no buyers, the fact is auctions are simply boring & embarrassing for the agent! And if you haven’t noticed, it’s all about agent image!

http://www.wheregroup.com.au/bye-bye-boom-what-happens-next/

(Note the date it was written as well)

 

[luutzu]

View attachment 65750

Never been there

Blond suits you pretty well.

 

[luutzu]

Blue collar work is better. White collar work = you get fired from job for being too ugly or too old too asian or not asian enough too male or too female too tall or tall short, unpaid overtime, stupid office politics, leftist, tumblr bull**** sometimes or other times insane amounts of abuse that you can't say squat back to and you have to wear stupid impractical clothes for no good god damned reason.

I'd love to be a blue collar worker get paid just to get a job done and be allowed to act like a complete and utter degenerate at all t imes and not only keep your job but win praise and admiration from your colleagues. And usually blue collar work pays more.

You mean being self-employed right?

Blue collar people do have it pretty bad man.

The only people who don't get told off are those who's their own boss. But then the boss do have their real boss and if the income aren't constant will also get told off too.

This young bricklayer who did work on my folks house got really upset a couple times because it rained most of the week and he couldn't do his work and can't get pay and his wife was giving him a hard time because they're all stressed.

I did work for my father as a signwriter and we generally get good and fair customers - the pay is also pretty decent too. But some customers, especially the wives of the "professional" ones, can be a bit much sometime.

But yea, blue or white collar... you can choose to not put up with people's crap. Money can be made at other jobs.

 

[PennD]

For Mr Magoo...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=agC7SoihH-o

 

[luutzu]

Yeah - funny how art imitates life isn't it

http://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/trainspotter

someone who is very interested in trains and spends time going to stations and recording the numbers of the trains that they see
2. (informal) someone who is odd or boring because they are interested in knowing everything about a particular subject, even very small, unimportant details ⇒ ■ He's a rather over-serious disco trainspotter with a record collection instead of a brain., ⇒ ■ They looked like boring, trainspotter types.
...

It takes a real man to appreciate fine machines and great engineering. Something only real men would appreciate I guess.

I might not be that much of a man but I've been on Sydney's latest train fleet when they were testing it. Was probably about 7AM and I was up at 5 that day but to hear it whizzed to life man... Something you don't forget.

Best part of going overseas was walking up and along those 737s like you do in Thailand with Air Asia.

As to the old trains... saw a real one at that museum in Darling Harbour... how do you not be amazed by it?

 

[Glen48]

60 Minutes CH 9 this Sunday are claiming house prices are facing a 50% down turn...Be interesting to see what they have to say..

 

[Wysiwyg]

60 Minutes CH 9 this Sunday are claiming house prices are facing a 50% down turn...Be interesting to see what they have to say..

 

[satanoperca]

If it is on 60 minutes it must be true.

Better sell now before it is toooooooooooo late. ha ha ha Well before Sunday and the rest of the population freaks out.

Cheers

 

[Wysiwyg]

If it is on 60 minutes it must be true.

Better sell now before it is toooooooooooo late. ha ha ha Well before Sunday and the rest of the population freaks out.

Cheers

Yes it a broad, sweeping statement. I doubt, if it is true, the whole Australian property market will experience this. Who is making the call and what credibility they have should reveal more.

p.s. - my house goes on the market tomorrow.

 

[qldfrog]

If it is on 60 minutes it must be true.

Better sell now before it is toooooooooooo late. ha ha ha Well before Sunday and the rest of the population freaks out.

Cheers

Joke aside, the fact that 60 minutes release that type of "info-entertaiment" means the "majority" ois ready for it; this is just a reflection of the current psyche

 

[Wysiwyg]

60 Minutes CH 9 this Sunday are claiming house prices are facing a 50% down turn...Be interesting to see what they have to say..

What did you think of that story? I think using a mining town (boom/bust cycles) as an example of what could happen is unrealistic. Moranbah, can you believe it. Poor lending practices and 10% unemployment would trigger such an event and like the property nostradamus said 'not if but when'. Wake me up when it starts.

 

[satanoperca]

Poor lending practices

That is the only thing that was valid. How wide spread are such poor lending practices regardless of location, actually if the banks are willing to lend in high risk area with no equity, then what has their lending regime been like in the major cities?

I can only deduce that if 50% of loans are interest only and we have tapped every conceivable source of funds to pump into the property sector, it will be had to show the gains that have occurred in previous years, mind you in the long term I can only see property going up while we have population growth.

 

[MrBurns]

If it is on 60 minutes it must be true.

Better sell now before it is toooooooooooo late. ha ha ha Well before Sunday and the rest of the population freaks out.

Cheers

60 Minutes has gone so far downhill it's nothing like the original show, that story was absolute rubbish the "expert" they had was wearing a t shirt and looked like he needed a bath.
The town they chose was not a typical example of what going on out there.
I never watch that show anymore but thought I'd have a look because of the subject matter.....
There probably will be a downturn and a big one but that story was so bad it was cringeworthy.

 

[Glen48]

Agree there was suppose to be a down turn in USA R E ....but it never happened

 

[pilots]

I liked the bit when the bimbo was complaining that the bank lent her 6MIL, it was all the banks fault, what a joke she was.

 

[Tyler Durden]

What did you think of that story? I think using a mining town (boom/bust cycles) as an example of what could happen is unrealistic. Moranbah, can you believe it. Poor lending practices and 10% unemployment would trigger such an event and like the property nostradamus said 'not if but when'. Wake me up when it starts.

I agree using Moranbah was a bit weak. I looked up the top 20 suburbs for mortgage defaults and Moranbah wasn't even there.

However, I do wonder if this means that 60 Minutes is early to the topic. Perhaps Moranbah will play a role in triggering a domino effect?

It was interesting to hear about the lending practices and the significant drop in prices of some property, I think it is a bit of a wake up call for people who think property can never go down. Also thought it was funny how if these people had made (a tonne of) money, they'd be boasting about how smart they were, but when they lose money they seemed to shift the blame onto someone else (ie. the bank shouldn't have lent me that money).

 

[Tyler Durden]

Also, here is an article in response (and opposition) to the views expressed by Jonathan Tepper in 60 Minutes:

http://www.domain.com.au/news/claim...re-outrageous-economists-say-20160222-gmzvkd/

I wonder if such an emotional response reflects an effort to cover up the truth?

 

[Glen48]

CH 9 news Tuesday night has a story about houses selling some where for 30K ...So wait until they come down