Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

There are a lot of new readers here so I will re post an article I cut out of the local rag on the northern beaches of Sydney 22 years ago. The article was about the previous 25 years (before 1994) and the next 25 years, we are nearly there now. Read the article, nothings changed, same old commentaries, very interesting. Click to expand.
 

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You and TS might be right about the fringes and Northern beaches, but for most other folks their dream of owning a home now is either for the market to collapse by 30 to 50%; or that they'd earn enough to be able to afford a $1M+ property. Which dream is more likely give the state of the economy and housing market?

Neither, nothing will change. Those that can and do afford expensive homes always will, those that can't will move out west or up to the Central Coast. I can't remember how many times my work mates use to say to me "why do you live on the northern beaches in a flat when you can buy a 4 bedroom house out here in the west for the same price?" It's just choice and ability to pay, I wouldn't live out west for free but happy to live and pay for the beaches area. You pay for lifestyle and in areas where there is no land left (like the northern beaches) it can only mean one thing, prices will keep on going up.

Considering how expensive it may be now, how do you explain this:

---
Australians paying off debt at record levels

New figures show Australians are paying off their mortgages and other debt at record levels.

The number of Australians owning their homes outright or switching from renting to ownership has risen to its highest level since 2010, according to results from the latest St George-Melbourne Institute Household Financial Conditions Report.

Forty-five per cent of those surveyed had paid off their mortgages, while 47.3 per cent reported having no debt at all.

The level of renting, at 15 per cent, is the lowest recorded since the survey started in 2001 when 25 per cent of respondents were renting.
- See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/business/...bt-at-record-levels.html#sthash.4Paoqpeg.dpuf
---
 
There are a lot of new readers here so I will re post an article I cut out of the local rag on the northern beaches of Sydney 22 years ago. The article was about the previous 25 years (before 1994) and the next 25 years, we are nearly there now. Read the article, nothings changed, same old commentaries, very interesting. Click to expand.

But it's fair to say you don't really believe this boom is going to keep going right? That's why you're out of the market.

Say the average home in Sydney is now $1M, at 4% growth [2% above currently ~2% inflation], in 25 years an average home would be $2.7M. If an average wage is $75K, at same growth they'd be earning some $200K a year.

I'm having trouble imagining an average Aussie being paid that much.

I haven't looked at the figures so correct me if I just have no clue, but when they work out the average Australian wage they literally takes the pay of all working Australians divide by number of them right?

Same approach to average property prices I'm guessing.

The problem with these averages is that while income from high income earners and professionals skewed the average, move the bell curve but house prices are not evenly distributed - that is, you may have less people earning multiple times many people; but house prices are not as skewed.

e.g. A blue collar person earning $50K a year made 1/3rd a person who earn $150K a year. But the house a better paid person can buy is, say $1M but that does not mean the house a $50K person could buy is $330K. It'd be at least $600K.

So an average income of $75K wage does not mean half the working population earn that or less while the other have evenly distributes it out; but for house prices they're more even.

That's not to sound doom and gloom or have no faith in the country; just for a lot of working people, housing affordability is a real concern and top line average figures can be quite misleading.
 
Neither, nothing will change. Those that can and do afford expensive homes always will, those that can't will move out west or up to the Central Coast. I can't remember how many times my work mates use to say to me "why do you live on the northern beaches in a flat when you can buy a 4 bedroom house out here in the west for the same price?" It's just choice and ability to pay, I wouldn't live out west for free but happy to live and pay for the beaches area. You pay for lifestyle and in areas where there is no land left (like the northern beaches) it can only mean one thing, prices will keep on going up.

Considering how expensive it may be now, how do you explain this:

---
Australians paying off debt at record levels

New figures show Australians are paying off their mortgages and other debt at record levels.

The number of Australians owning their homes outright or switching from renting to ownership has risen to its highest level since 2010, according to results from the latest St George-Melbourne Institute Household Financial Conditions Report.

Forty-five per cent of those surveyed had paid off their mortgages, while 47.3 per cent reported having no debt at all.

The level of renting, at 15 per cent, is the lowest recorded since the survey started in 2001 when 25 per cent of respondents were renting.
- See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/business/...bt-at-record-levels.html#sthash.4Paoqpeg.dpuf
---

Can't argue with that. People pay for what they can afford and pay for the lifestyle they like (and can afford).

I'm sure you're right that places by the sea and up North will always have keen buyers. I mean, even I look at those places even though I'd have to drive a couple hours a week to do the shopping - but since you're saying it never going to halve, there goes my dream. :D

----

Don't think we could trust surveys, especially surveys about houses from a bank.

When people call me to ask how much debt I have... it'll depend. If it's the tax office then please sir, I am in a whole world of pain; If it's a bank and I might want a loan then it's what debt? If you give me the money for next to nothing I might consider borrowing it because I like to help you out.
 
But it's fair to say you don't really believe this boom is going to keep going right? That's why you're out of the market.
I am out of the market for 3 reasons. 1st. the price jumped the most in the last 2 years before the sale, so the price was good. 2nd. was there was a threat of a major development next door to my building and 3rd. was that it wasn't suitable for my wife and I anymore. It meant sell, money in the bank.

Now with record low interest rates prices have moved even further north and perhaps further big increases are over. Maybe when interest rates start to rise prices might stagnate or go slightly south, that is the feelings I have. However when I go looking at property there are still swarms of people all doing the same thing, so for now it is still stable.

If I was somebody new to property buying now, I would wait. Bank the money, build a pot and wait for interest rate increases and see if it shakes out a few people. Things change all the time, when I bought my house in 2009 up here on The Central Coast it was expensive and hard to find. It seemed very difficult for me to find the right place. 2 years later (around 2011) the markets froze. They could not sell 2 br timber houses on 500 SQM for 200K. Today they are selling everything that comes onto the market, so the time to buy may not be now.

The whole point of my original post was that 60% discounts do not happen in the areas where I am interested in, doesn't matter if it's houses, flats or timber bungalows. The best I reckon we will ever see would be a 10% drop when interest rates start going up or a long period of stagnation.

That's not to sound doom and gloom or have no faith in the country; just for a lot of working people, housing affordability is a real concern and top line average figures can be quite misleading.

I started off sleeping on the couch in a mates place in Manly when I first got there in the early 80's. I use to pick up the Manly Daily and look at the property prices and just shake my head as to how could anyone buy a unit there. I just worked my ar$e off doing o/t and extra jobs just to get in the market. Bought a 1 br flat, sold, rebought, sold rebought over and over. Once I owned my own place fully I bought investment property. It has never been easy, I never finished high school and didn't go to uni, I had nothing but simple jobs. I just put my money in real estate while others were drinking as much beer as they could on a Friday night. The rest is history.
 
I started off sleeping on the couch in a mates place in Manly when I first got there in the early 80's. I use to pick up the Manly Daily and look at the property prices and just shake my head as to how could anyone buy a unit there. I just worked my ar$e off doing o/t and extra jobs just to get in the market. Bought a 1 br flat, sold, rebought, sold rebought over and over. Once I owned my own place fully I bought investment property. It has never been easy, I never finished high school and didn't go to uni, I had nothing but simple jobs. I just put my money in real estate while others were drinking as much beer as they could on a Friday night. The rest is history.
Good on you Bill, but as long as you realise you were also surfing an economic wave which is not there anymore;
Doing exactly the same thing in the US or UK/Ireland could have seen you bankrupted or extremely worse than you are now, for the same effort and sweat.
the reasons have been discussed ad nauseum here and on other threads

I would also not use the "never/impossible" about the potential 60% fall of price for selected North Beaches suburbs.the AUD has lost more than 30% of its value against the USD in the last few years.
If the RE price stay the same in $ term,but the AUD collapses and people who do have income under hyperinflation earn double while most are unemployed, you would be right strictly speaking but the real value of your house/unit there would be cut in half.
I am seeing mostly a defaltion scenario ahead world wide, so you should be good but I would not discard an australia specific collapse as per current Brazil situation (similar economically in some ways).
our debt is owned O/S, is enormous now both for government and individuals, if markets freeze and CBA/government can not get its needed injection of foreign currency, everything can go down very very fast, and with term deposit at 20% in a RE price collapse, many of the few with money then will wait before jumping onto distressed sales.So never say never.
But good on you, I arrived in Australia a bit to late to get the fiull benefit of the wave, but enjoyed it while it staid and Australia treated me well too.A bear in nature always happy when i am wrong...
 
e.g. A blue collar person earning $50K a year made 1/3rd a person who earn $150K a year. But the house a better paid person can buy is, say $1M but that does not mean the house a $50K person could buy is $330K. It'd be at least $600K.

So an average income of $75K wage does not mean half the working population earn that or less while the other have evenly distributes it out; but for house prices they're more even.

Don't bother. They're rich old blokes who had it too easy to know what adversary looks like.
 
It is 12 oclock. Interest rates haven't even risen yet. And prices are rising. Can't even read your own made up clock.

Your lack of understanding is stupifying. There is more to property in Australia then Sydney. Please troll away as your posts reveal as to what level of medication you are currently on. I will write it in crayon next time so you might comprehend.
 
Your lack of understanding is stupifying. There is more to property in Australia then Sydney. Please troll away as your posts reveal as to what level of medication you are currently on. I will write it in crayon next time so you might comprehend.

As I said can't even read your own clock. In which universe have interest rates increased and values fallen ? Property prices are up massively over Australia. Maybe they're down in a few of your cherry picked locations.
 
As I said can't even read your own clock. In which universe have interest rates increased and values fallen ? Property prices are up massively over Australia. Maybe they're down in a few of your cherry picked locations.

You are not the full quid are you Mrmagoo? The clock is not week by week nor month by month.

After controversially lifting mortgage rates last year independently of official moves, the big banks are tipped to use the same playbook to offset earnings pressure that is showing no sign of letting up.

While the banks’ “repricing” of their mortgage books over the past 12 months provided a reprieve from adverse regulatory changes, their margins are under renewed pressure from rising wholesale funding costs and fierce competition.

The big banks blamed the rate rise late last year on the regulator’s decision to increase their capital requirements for mortgages, as recommended by the Murray fin*ancial system inquiry, to improve the competitiveness of small lenders hindered by more onerous “risk weighting” rules.

The regulatory decision spurred the big banks ”” Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, *National Australia Bank and ANZ to raise almost $20 billion in *equity from shareholders, reducing their returns.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...s/news-story/d9468334bbc160a2d420d2698f942626

Sydney house prices recently in the last quarter have done what exactly?

After a year of strong growth, a fall in Sydney home prices has dragged the national average flat in the last month of 2015.

While the national average capital city home price rose 7.8 per cent over 2015, it went nowhere in December and actually fell 1.4 per cent over the last three months of the year.

Sydney was the prime mover on all fronts - its 11.5 per cent annual gain was the strongest of any capital city market and its 2.3 per cent third quarter decline also the biggest.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-04/home-prices-stagnate-in-december-after-2015-surge/7065954

Now for the crayon part so you might understand ....

Gladstone, Qld

The construction phase for three LNG facilities created a house price boom in Gladstone, but it started winding down in 2012 as workers began seeking jobs elsewhere and developers started constructing a mass of dwellings. Many of the workers that remain in the area have been accommodated in camps, circumventing the local housing market.

Moranbah, Qld

Moranbah’s median house price grew by roughly 30 per cent each of the 10 years to 2012 to reach $750,000, while rents were $1800 per week, on average. Then the mining companies began operating fly-in, fly-out workforces in temporary workers’ camps and the property market went into free fall. The median house price is now $215,000, houses typically take eight months to sell and rents are $300 per week.

Muswellbrook, NSW

The Hunter Valley was another location hurt by zealous developers amid a downsizing coal industry, Hotspotting.com.au said. The region was booming until recently, attracting a swarm of developers, who built too many houses. Muswellbrook has been the worst affected. The median house price has been falling since 2012 and is now the same as it was five years ago.

Newman, WA

House prices in the Pilbara town of Newman are lower than they were five years ago and fell 22 per cent in the past 12 months. A massive iron ore mine was recently constructed near the town, but the mining company involved became wary of paying high rental costs to accommodate its workers. Its solution was to build a 2000 room village so that employees wouldn’t need to live in local housing.

Port Hedland, WA

The end of the resources boom has also blown a hole in Port Hedland housing demand. A little over two years ago, Port Hedland had a median house price of $1.3 million. Today it is $850,000. The median weekly rent has dropped from $2500 to $1000.

Surat Basin, Qld

The Surat Basin, just west of Brisbane, is a major coal seam gas field. Towns such as Chinchilla and Roma once boomed ”” until oversupply killed their markets. There are about 15,000 resources workers in the area, but 94 per cent are now accommodated in workers camps, according to Hotspotting.com.au.

Karratha, WA

Karratha home values used to be over $800,000, but prices have fallen across all the region’s suburbs over the past year to reach approximately $500,000. Falling prices were also a result of developers building too many houses. Hotspotting pointed out that in the 10 years before 2011, Karratha dwelling approvals averaged 183 per year. In 2012 and 2013 there were more than 1300 total approvals
.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/re...t/news-story/3d6492972780d3fb40df9ec813289d07

Cherry picked eh? Get out of Sydney and have an optitractomy - you know the operation where they remove the link from your eyeballs from your anus to improve your sh!tty outlook on life.
 
Don't bother. They're rich old blokes who had it too easy to know what adversary looks like.

It's true that on average the current generation may have it tougher than the average of the last few generations, but I think it's unfair to say that these old blokes had it easy or they don't know what adversary is either.

I mean, you know what Trainspotter have to do to earn a living? He bloody stick sharp objects into oysters balls for crying out out; it's so tough running his oyster business that the dude seem to take enjoyment from watching those old trains blowing steams and waking up entire neighbourhood with each chugs. Or BillM who started out sleeping on his mates flat but will probably now be charging extra if a tenant let his mate sleeps over :D

All jokes aside, it is tough. I know people who works very hard but still could only afford to rent. Also know people who does not work all that hard, but that's because they're "white collar", and still couldn't really buy a house - maybe a flat... or a modest house if they're both working - I guess that's why some people like to marry rich people and some people just like to make money by any means :D

But I think it all comes down to it being how life is supposed to be - tough as heck but you try to make the best out of what you have and maybe it will work out a bit better as you go along.

I'm not trying to lecture. I mean, the opportunities I missed or not taken advantage of properly; that and even though I am currently at a better place than a few years ago, it wouldn't surprise me if others are still looking at me as an example of what not to do in life (and they'd be wrong, gid dam it, very very wrong :mad:)

I think we all think, at one time or another, that people ought to care a bit more, ought to give a dam about our adversity... But most people don't because, well some are just brought up that way; but most don't give a dam because they got their own problem to worry about. So don't take it personally.

I'm sure we all have dreams where this and that are given or taken away to make life easier on us, but you know the saying.. if it doesn't kill you, it'll first try to break you and get you to do it for them. So it's up to us to make something of it I guess.

If life is too easy and things are just handed to us, how will we know how awesome we are?

Take me for example... each time I hear well to do people talk about them "building" their house, inside my head I'd go... did you draw it up yourself? No. Did you knock the old one down yourself? No. Did you study how to wire up and form the foundation? No. Did you learn and do plumbing? No. Did you read up then estimate quantity then engineer then frame the entire house by yourself? No. Did you then do all the roofing and plaster and tiling (except the floor, that's freaking hard).. No... then you did not build your house. I on the other hand, did.

See, if you were well off all you'd be saying is something like: uuhhhh, and I just love the $25,000 lanscaped garden you had done. It is so hard to pick the right plant that you'd like from Bunnings and dig a hole to put it in.
 
I am out of the market for 3 reasons. 1st. the price jumped the most in the last 2 years before the sale, so the price was good. 2nd. was there was a threat of a major development next door to my building and 3rd. was that it wasn't suitable for my wife and I anymore. It meant sell, money in the bank.

Now with record low interest rates prices have moved even further north and perhaps further big increases are over. Maybe when interest rates start to rise prices might stagnate or go slightly south, that is the feelings I have. However when I go looking at property there are still swarms of people all doing the same thing, so for now it is still stable.

If I was somebody new to property buying now, I would wait. Bank the money, build a pot and wait for interest rate increases and see if it shakes out a few people. Things change all the time, when I bought my house in 2009 up here on The Central Coast it was expensive and hard to find. It seemed very difficult for me to find the right place. 2 years later (around 2011) the markets froze. They could not sell 2 br timber houses on 500 SQM for 200K. Today they are selling everything that comes onto the market, so the time to buy may not be now.

The whole point of my original post was that 60% discounts do not happen in the areas where I am interested in, doesn't matter if it's houses, flats or timber bungalows. The best I reckon we will ever see would be a 10% drop when interest rates start going up or a long period of stagnation.



I started off sleeping on the couch in a mates place in Manly when I first got there in the early 80's. I use to pick up the Manly Daily and look at the property prices and just shake my head as to how could anyone buy a unit there. I just worked my ar$e off doing o/t and extra jobs just to get in the market. Bought a 1 br flat, sold, rebought, sold rebought over and over. Once I owned my own place fully I bought investment property. It has never been easy, I never finished high school and didn't go to uni, I had nothing but simple jobs. I just put my money in real estate while others were drinking as much beer as they could on a Friday night. The rest is history.

Nice try Bill. You sold because you're too smart to think you could take all the money and leave no hope for the other fella :D

But nice work though.
 
I love how an 11% YOY increase is a fall and record low interest rates are increasing interest rates and improving employment conditions indicate a recession.

This guy cherry picked a few mining towns.

Not that it matters as the "property clock" is complete bull****. The only cycle we've seen in property has ben "up, up and up some more".
 
All jokes aside, it is tough. I know people who works very hard but still could only afford to rent. Also know people who does not work all that hard, but that's because they're "white collar", and still couldn't really buy a house - maybe a flat... or a modest house if they're both working - I guess that's why some people like to marry rich people and some people just like to make money by any means :D
.

Blue collar work is better. White collar work = you get fired from job for being too ugly or too old too asian or not asian enough too male or too female too tall or tall short, unpaid overtime, stupid office politics, leftist, tumblr bull**** sometimes or other times insane amounts of abuse that you can't say squat back to and you have to wear stupid impractical clothes for no good god damned reason.

I'd love to be a blue collar worker get paid just to get a job done and be allowed to act like a complete and utter degenerate at all t imes and not only keep your job but win praise and admiration from your colleagues. And usually blue collar work pays more.
 
I love how an 11% YOY increase is a fall and record low interest rates are increasing interest rates and improving employment conditions indicate a recession.

This guy cherry picked a few mining towns.

Not that it matters as the "property clock" is complete bull****. The only cycle we've seen in property has ben "up, up and up some more".

Quincy Magoo (or simply Mr. Magoo) is a cartoon character created at the UPA animation studio in 1949. Voiced by Jim Backus, Quincy Magoo is a wealthy, short-statured retiree who gets into a series of comical situations as a result of his nearsightedness, compounded by his stubborn refusal to admit the problem.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Magoo

Funny how art imitates life now isn't it :rolleyes:

Even when FACTS are presented he still refuses to admit he is wrong. Get out of Sydney and open your eyes.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Magoo

Funny how art imitates life now isn't it :rolleyes:

Even when FACTS are presented he still refuses to admit he is wrong. Get out of Sydney and open your eyes.

This is like an episode of the loony tunes. Australia is not in recession. Interest rates have not risen. Property prices have been increasing. If anything, we're at 12:15. That is assuming this made up clock has any resemblance to reality.
 
This is like an episode of the loony tunes. Australia is not in recession. Interest rates have not risen. Property prices have been increasing. If anything, we're at 12:15. That is assuming this made up clock has any resemblance to reality.

This is like an episode of the loony tunes. Australia is not in recession. Interest rates have not risen. Property prices have been increasing. If anything, we're at 12:15. That is assuming this made up clock has any resemblance to reality.

Your words not mine ;)

Have you thought this might be a"global" clock and not specific to Australia and is to be used as a reference point only?

So when the banks raised interest rates last year above what the RBA had sanctioned this did not occur in your world right? As per the link I provided. Watch what they will do in the next few months as they blame the "cost of funding" because the US of A is doing it :banghead:

THE most telegraphed US rate rise in history is expected to provoke bigger moves on financial markets than what’s been seen so far.
The federal funds rate today rose a quarter of a percentage point to a range between 0.25 per cent and 0.5 per cent. The Australian dollar’s reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in almost a decade was fairly muted, while the local share market rallied.
But Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists predict a stronger response to play out over the next few days.
“We haven’t yet seen the full reaction, partly because a lot of market participants around the globe were closed for business given the time zones,” CBA chief economist Michael Blythe said.
CBA’s head of international economics Richard Grace said the biggest moves will be in the 24-hour period kicking off in the Asian Monday morning, once traders have digested the news over the weekend.
Mr Grace tipped equity markets to soften over the next three trading days, saying volatility may pick up.
“(And) I think the market reaction to the second Fed funds rate hike, which we think will be in March, will be larger than the one we’ve seen now,” he said.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/us-f...s/news-story/00e170643b03a7acd6488c7879fa921d

Naaahhhh ... interest rates aint rising eh? :xyxthumbs

Australia is not in recession but look what happened in the Eurozone. Did they have a recession? You betcha.

So you think this is all about Sydney right and prices have gone up and up and up ALL across Australia but you fail to perform the most simplest research that EVIDENCES regional Australia house prices are falling dramatically and not just in the "cherry picked" mining towns I posted. Go and have a look at Townsville (which by the way has suffered a 20% decline)

Here is another "cherry picked" town ... Oh yeah and not mining either ... DERP !!

2010 Mt Tarcoola, Geraldton average median price $448,000
2015 Mt Tarcoola, Geraldton average median price $373,000
A $75,000 LOSS in 5 years on median price range for 1 suburb

Another suburb in same town has lost over $80,000 in the same period. I will place the link here http://www.domain.com.au/suburb-profile/wandina-wa-6530 for you to gorge yourself on actual DATA and FACTS :cry:

You Sir, are a replicant of your moniker. I bid you adieu in your trolling exercise as the bait you are using is a bit smelly and the fish do not feel like biting (read educating) you anymore.

P.S. Like it or lump it we are not completely isolated to global market forces which will have an effect on The future of Australian property prices.

MR MAGOO.jpg
 
Your words not mine ;)

Have you thought this might be a"global" clock and not specific to Australia and is to be used as a reference point only?

So when the banks raised interest rates last year above what the RBA had sanctioned this did not occur in your world right? As per the link I provided. Watch what they will do in the next few months as they blame the "cost of funding" because the US of A is doing it :banghead:



http://www.news.com.au/finance/us-f...s/news-story/00e170643b03a7acd6488c7879fa921d

Naaahhhh ... interest rates aint rising eh? :xyxthumbs

Australia is not in recession but look what happened in the Eurozone. Did they have a recession? You betcha.

So you think this is all about Sydney right and prices have gone up and up and up ALL across Australia but you fail to perform the most simplest research that EVIDENCES regional Australia house prices are falling dramatically and not just in the "cherry picked" mining towns I posted. Go and have a look at Townsville (which by the way has suffered a 20% decline)

Here is another "cherry picked" town ... Oh yeah and not mining either ... DERP !!

2010 Mt Tarcoola, Geraldton average median price $448,000
2015 Mt Tarcoola, Geraldton average median price $373,000
A $75,000 LOSS in 5 years on median price range for 1 suburb

Another suburb in same town has lost over $80,000 in the same period. I will place the link here http://www.domain.com.au/suburb-profile/wandina-wa-6530 for you to gorge yourself on actual DATA and FACTS :cry:

You Sir, are a replicant of your moniker. I bid you adieu in your trolling exercise as the bait you are using is a bit smelly and the fish do not feel like biting (read educating) you anymore.

P.S. Like it or lump it we are not completely isolated to global market forces which will have an effect on The future of Australian property prices.

View attachment 65730

Thanks TS,

You have just shown, that property is not different to any other investment vehicle, you need to know when to enter and when to exit to remain profitable.

I believe nothing has changed in that regards since man began to walk on two legs instead of four.

Just played a game a tennis with my 10 year old, worth more than all the houses in Sydney or Melbourne, cannot buy that experience.

Sometimes (all the time) life riches are not what we own but rather what we experience
 
That's very philosophical satanoperca and TA for the compliment. Only been banging on about this for 7 years now and a couple of thousand posts :banghead:

Even remember telling people what towns to buy in, which ones to steer clear of and expected ROR as well ;)
 
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