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The future of Australian property prices

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The number of houses being built in W.A, doesn't seem to have slowed down, yet there is a negative population growth.:eek:

Either people know something I don't, or many are going to be caught with unoccupied rental properties.IMO

Apparently, there are also an above average amount of properties for sale, at the moment.
 
sptrawler said:
The number of houses being built in W.A, doesn't seem to have slowed down, yet there is a negative population growth.:eek:

Either people know something I don't, or many are going to be caught with unoccupied rental properties.IMO

Apparently, there are also an above average amount of properties for sale, at the moment.
Click to expand...

Is this reflected in ongoing development and construction approvals or is this just the properties and developments from 2 years ago being finished?

Wouldn't surprise me to see places pop up that had great rental appraisals but with noone to live in them anymore - that's (part of) what happened in Central QLD.
 
Now who's gonna bail out the chumps with 3-4 properties, barely making repayments on low incomes when interest rate goes up ;)
 
I know someone who is a great bell weather in terms of timing busts.

They got into Milk stocks late last year, Oil stocks just before the crash, and bought a Melbourne CBD Apartment 6 months ago.

I don't think this is a coincidence either, they tend to buy the "great assets to buy" narrative (perhaps otherwise known as a bubble), not knowing that when the idea gets that popular to hear about it within their social group, it's probably already peaked.
 
shouldaindex said:
I know someone who is a great bell weather in terms of timing busts.

They got into Milk stocks late last year, Oil stocks just before the crash, and bought a Melbourne CBD Apartment 6 months ago.

I don't think this is a coincidence either, they tend to buy the "great assets to buy" narrative (perhaps otherwise known as a bubble), not knowing that when the idea gets that popular to hear about it within their social group, it's probably already peaked.
Click to expand...

well that fella is your best friend. when he buys you sell and when he sells you buy.. guaranteed riches :p
 
shouldaindex said:
I know someone who is a great bell weather in terms of timing busts.

They got into Milk stocks late last year, Oil stocks just before the crash, and bought a Melbourne CBD Apartment 6 months ago.

I don't think this is a coincidence either, they tend to buy the "great assets to buy" narrative (perhaps otherwise known as a bubble), not knowing that when the idea gets that popular to hear about it within their social group, it's probably already peaked.
Click to expand...

lol, yes if everyone around you thinks your investment Idea is fantastic, its probably a dud because you are about to over pay for what ever asset it is you are buying.
 
poverty said:
Not any time soon that's for sure.
Click to expand...

That depends? If our (country) credit rating deteriorates we will need to increase rates to attract funding? One big negative feedback loop....the economists would say that 'as we transition from mining to ????' yet Chinese tourists & property buyers can't prop up the economy indefinitely, just as they couldn't keep buying our resources to create multiple gluts eg iron ore/steel?
 
If it's good enough for Mike Smith ........

Mike Smith still hasn't sold his house. The former ANZ chief executive put his five-bedroom, six-bathroom Toorak home on the market in mid-February, targeting a $15 million sale.

A sales campaign for the 2 Hopetoun Road mansion ended on 22 March and it remains unsold.

Mr Smith and his wife Maria aren't twiddling their thumbs while they wait. Last month they paid former International Olympic Committee vice president, Kevan Gosper and his wife Judith $5.75 million for their three-bedroom apartment on Domain Road, also in Toorak.
Click to expand...

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/ex-a...melbourne-prestige-sales-slow-20160412-go47e0

Oh yeah .. paid 9.65 million for it in 2007 :banghead:
 
Like a said a few years back, the only god thing about this property bubble is, it is a win win for Government.

Heaps of employment building them, heaps of stamp duty and GST being paid on them, and heaps of excess housing for the poor when it falls on its ar$e.:D
 
sptrawler said:
Like a said a few years back, the only god thing about this property bubble is, it is a win win for Government.

Heaps of employment building them, heaps of stamp duty and GST being paid on them, and heaps of excess housing for the poor when it falls on its ar$e.:D
Click to expand...

Not really, when it does fall, not if the poor won't be in a position to buy either way.

Those with cash on hand will be the only ones with access to 'cheap excess housing'

The poor get poorer while the rich get richer, and cash is becoming king again
 
againsthegrain said:
Not really, when it does fall, not if the poor won't be in a position to buy either way.

Those with cash on hand will be the only ones with access to 'cheap excess housing'

The poor get poorer while the rich get richer, and cash is becoming king again
Click to expand...

I was more thinking about the affordability of renting, with the oversupply in Perth rents have dropped a lot.
Actually buying a property, will always be a problem for the poor, as it always has been.
 
Some questions to be considered when predicting the direction of Australian property prices :

1. Can the expansion of credit/debt continue at current levels for the next few years? If it cannot, how will banks maintain they profits - increase IR's maybe, but that is a negative feedback loop, with less people taking on new debt.
2. How much more debt can the Australian household take on, we are already one of the highest private indebted nations in the world?
3. If the RBA drops interest rates further, will the bank pass them on? Doubt
4. Even if the banks do pass on any drop in IR's as a percentage of what they are already charging, it makes relatively little difference. I doubt you will ever be able to get a home loan at less than 3.5%.
5. The govnuts have the capacity to open the flood gates to foreign investors. Ohhh, they already have. This alone can keep the property market afloat.
6. Where else can money come from to support the property market, supers can already leverage, IR's are at historical lows, Australians believe that property can never go down, that leaves only one item left, allowing first home buyers to access their super to by property, bad move, but more than feasible.
7. Given the amount of money floating around, where do you store your wealth that is safe or safer than the alternatives - property.
8. Will Australia become like other nations and just print money?
9. If property was to correct, the govnuts will do whatever they can to stop it, even if it means bankrupting the country.

Some food for thought.
 
satanoperca said:
7. Given the amount of money floating around, where do you store your wealth that is safe or safer than the alternatives - property.
Click to expand...

This one stood out for me. The family home is still totally TAX FREE when you sell it and it is NOT asset tested. You can pump as much money as like into it and you don't lose your pension. In fact the family home can be a $10 Million mansion and you can still collect the aged pension if you have no other assets. Bloody good country dis a Australia.:D
 

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