The future of Australian property prices

[nukz]

Bot sounds like a crazy man desperately trying to argue his point no matter what facts are stacked against him, maybye his in a straight jacket and for good behaviour gets 1 hour internet time so his repies come delayed

He has a vested intrest i think, i suspect most the bulls here do. Theres also another group of bulls who believe that it's un-patriotic to even think the property market might collapse.

I suspect some of the bears here are possibly FHB's who want to get into the market and are wishing to some extent it will implode. That said there are bears here who are just looking at the raw data and making investment decisions based on the data.

Personally i've stated quite openly that i sold both my property's around March this year, but i was quite bearish on the property market for a few months before i decided to sell so you could say i was even bearish to some extent while i had property lol.

The reason i've got out of property is purely the numbers, i'm not seeing the returns we saw in 2007-2009 anymore and i suspect we won't be seeing those kind of returns for sometime.

 

[MR.]

Did I tell ya!
Da big Indian fella picked up the sink at breakfast this morning. Ripped it right off the wall! Water went everywhere! He then threw it through the window and was about to walk out when that corridor pacing, interest rate dude's eyes lit up and jumped out the window first and ran to greener pastures!
Suppose now, never to be heard from again.......



There's an underlying message here I just can't put my finger on it?

Since I'm free too, I can repost and chart as many times as I like so to be at the top of the page!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

hello,

oh yeah, Keen even lost out following his own failed prophecies (sold his joint), get out of debt when it actually got cheaper to hold debt amazing

keep reading my posts and from 5 others here at ASF to experience society's true prophets, enjoy them

thankyou
Professor Robots

Only 5? Maybe false prophets, like the one who thinks he is a professor

Morning Robots, and PI investors.....
Hmmm, all those interest rates rises by those in control, who have no interest in reality....Stevens, Swan and banker mates....
the banks are still not lending to business......like 2008 revisted, business can only hang in there for so long before they shut up shop.....

anyone noticed all the retailers and the discounting going on right now.....did you notice this is pre christmas sale time, rather than the usual no discount period....leading up to christmas......when everyman and his two dogs just has to buy all those xmas goodies......

this is different to the past years, when we became used to the massive sell off, bargains and discounts of the post xmas sales.....

the retailers are desperate for cash flow, they need the cash now, they cannot afford to wait until post xmas to offer the discounts.....
hence all the discounts out now....
(or the massive push for 2-5 year interest free credit deals)

the shoppers are not opening their wallets, regardless of the discounts on offer.....I expect we will see some of the weakest retail figures for December in years......
the banks non lending to business is having the most damage.....
we will have to wait until the end of January for the December figures to come out.....but those in charge will still be holidaying....still on another planet....
enjoy your holidays and the festive season.....
I rarely blog about the property market these days....moved on to more interesting pursuits...I might pop in again next year...or I may not

cheers

Sounds like a bull turning bearish? Down to 4 now?
Some compelling reasons why property prices could come under pressure.

The Powers can only bring forward future consumption bought on credit and stimulis for so long then.....we all sit back and work out how to pay for it..... a bit like after over-eating the big Christmas lunch?

I'm no Professor, but ignoring the problem is usually one of the first signs of denial?

 

[financialdonk]

Da big Indian fella picked up the sink at breakfast this morning. Ripped it right off the wall! Water went everywhere! He then threw it through the window and was about to walk out when that corridor pacing, interest rate dude's eyes lit up and jumped out the window first and ran to greener pastures!
Suppose now, never to be heard from again.......

View attachment 39838

There's an underlying message here I just can't put my finger on it?

Rofl! Love your work MR. I finished reading One Flew Over the Cukoo's Nest about a fortnight ago.

Quality photoshops of post counts too!!

 

[MR.]

UF I see you’ve heard from that corridor pacing interest rate dude!
Musta run straight to da nearist blog café! Yep, greener pastures I tell ya!

I rarely blog about the property market these days....moved on to more interesting pursuits...I might pop in again next year...or I may not
cheers

Depending on ?????? ……… %%%%% = $$$$$$$ :dunno: :bekloppt:

Only 5? Maybe false prophets, like the one who thinks he is a professor

UF every time I try to count these 5 prophets I just can't get near five!

Let me try counting them again, one… two….......
Start again, one.... twooooo...... :dunno:

I’ll try again, one…. Hang on, re-count I might have counted the same prophet twice!

One… two….. No just can’t get to three. Either I’m counting on me arms instead of me fingers or the cONFE$$OR has been straw sipping too many lattés! Geez it's goin to be quite round hear soon......

 

[c-unit]

Morning Robots, and PI investors.....
Hmmm, all those interest rates rises by those in control, who have no interest in reality....Stevens, Swan and banker mates....
the banks are still not lending to business......like 2008 revisted, business can only hang in there for so long before they shut up shop.....

anyone noticed all the retailers and the discounting going on right now.....did you notice this is pre christmas sale time, rather than the usual no discount period....leading up to christmas......when everyman and his two dogs just has to buy all those xmas goodies......

this is different to the past years, when we became used to the massive sell off, bargains and discounts of the post xmas sales.....

the retailers are desperate for cash flow, they need the cash now, they cannot afford to wait until post xmas to offer the discounts.....
hence all the discounts out now....
(or the massive push for 2-5 year interest free credit deals)

the shoppers are not opening their wallets, regardless of the discounts on offer.....I expect we will see some of the weakest retail figures for December in years......
the banks non lending to business is having the most damage.....
we will have to wait until the end of January for the December figures to come out.....but those in charge will still be holidaying....still on another planet....
enjoy your holidays and the festive season.....
I rarely blog about the property market these days....moved on to more interesting pursuits...I might pop in again next year...or I may not
cheers

Agree. Good post.

The only way I see property continuing to rise is if somehow the national credit card gets an increased limit, which under the current environment with governments defaulting and credit being rationed rather than thrown from helicopters (US aside) seems unlikely. It is all about perception. Now that foreign lenders perceive the Aussie property market to be the next to pop, the credit will stop flowing and that will do it. Glad I sold my banking shares a few months ago! I really think they will be hit hard in the next 12 - 18 months as property prices depreciate.

 

[indeck]

this might be short sighted of me, but if the businesses need cash flow why would not being able to get loans affect them so much? Sure you have to spend money to make money. You borrow to expand or possibly to refinance existing debt.

I find it quite comical how property price threads on a number of forums for the most part are just people taking pot shots at others with opposing views.

 

[singlefished]

Sounds like a bull turning bearish? Down to 4 now?

ASF Property bulls crash 20%!

are there any mechanisms to short the post count index?

 

[Dangerous]

i went through the results of 15-20 houses from this weekends auctions. A mix of passed in and sold...

Still some very good prices fetched, but also a lot of stuff missing reserve by 10%... I think you would find that a lot of sellers would have been pretty happy with the results from the weekend (59% of them maybe!). I certainly didn't find any bargains. Stuff on big blocks still getting huge money - 650square metres in Maidstone (ugly area a little past Footscray ~12km from CBD) with dung house for 700K.... wow!

 

[MR.]

are there any mechanisms to short the post count index?

Blooody 'ell, now ya want da index!....... geez I'm good to you, see attached:



Not sure about the count cause of late I've been having trouble counting past two!
Short away, Singlefished!

 

[singlefished]

geez I'm good to you, see attached

It's not looking good MR....

Can you see the shrinking lollipop pattern starting to emerge?

 

[satanoperca]

Knock Robots as much as you want, but as a bear that lost a bet with the man over property prices several years ago, just remember he has been more right than anyone else. Property has continued to grow regardless of the figures/data which everyone keeps referring to.

As I have stated in the past, we have not seen property prices go south yet. Auction clearance results big deal, a small and I say small drop in prices hardly means the Professor is wrong, until there is at least a decent correction lay off the man and get back onto the topic of the future of property prices.

Cheers.

 

[MR.]

Can you see the shrinking lollipop pattern starting to emerge?

Ha ha didn't see it......!

Knock Robots as much as you want, but as a bear that lost a bet with the man over property prices several years ago, just remember he has been more right than anyone else. Property has continued to grow regardless of the figures/data which everyone keeps referring to.

What you talking bout Willis?

As I have stated in the past, we have not seen property prices go south yet.

"Dangerous" pointed out similar above also! and....

Auction clearance results big deal, a small and I say small drop in prices hardly means the Professor is wrong, until there is at least a decent correction lay off the man

Huh? Do you think Robot's would be taking something personally? Why would there need a decent correction for him to be wrong anyway!

and get back onto the topic of the future of property prices.

Geez we have a decending triangle lollipop perhaps forming into a melted icecream and you want us to be serious?

 

[SusanW]

For the clearance rate obsessives.
Chris Joye interprets it as the housing market getting 'soggy'.





And dare we presume the Labour Price Index leads interest rates?

 

[SusanW]

Coming from Brisbane, I have never understood Melbourne's obsession with auctions, which are more subject to manipulation than any form of exchange in my experience, let alone a win means an unconditional contract. And so many people seem to bid without a pest and building inspection, or confirmed bank valuation.

My Melbourne friends say they love the theatre. My response is go to a real theatre instead, it's cheaper.


Chart source 22/10/10

 

[MR.]

For the clearance rate obsessives.

Susan, would you supply a link to where the above is located. I know of the following but it hasn't updated from the 14th auction. http://reareports.realestate.com.au/index.do

with thanks

 

[SusanW]

Susan, would you supply a link to where the above is located. I know of the following but it hasn't updated from the 14th auction. http://reareports.realestate.com.au/index.do

with thanks

Chris Joye and Tim Lawless occasionally post the most recent RPData stats on their blogs. Despite Chris' bias, he is actually a good analyst with access to great data.

Source of above chart.

Tim runs the rpdata blog
Chris Joye's blog

 

[Mr Z]

Susan,

Auctions are a game the way they do them down here. It does not take long to work out how to play it and the power of manipulation is not as strong as you may think at first blush. I've been on both sides of quite a few... IMO its more theater than anything else. In the end most serious punters know the market, know what is realistic and know when to bid. Sure when the market gets silly they get out of control, but then when the market gets silly all manor of things get out of control.



FWIW --> I would like to see a law that says the reserve must be within the quoted range and the quoted range can be no more than x% of the reserve. This whole "quote it low and watch it go" thing is just silly for anyone trying to familiarize themselves with our market.

 

[SusanW]

In the end most serious punters know the market, know what is realistic and know when to bid. Sure when the market gets silly they get out of control, but then when the market gets silly all manor of things get out of control.

But unfortunately, prices are set at the margin, and serious punters aren't 'the margin' most of the time. In loose credit times, it is most often the least educated about market value who bid the most dollars. And that only makes the market less efficient.

IMHO, a better informed and less emotional market place benefits us all. But I suppose those who are overly emotional will eventually be separated from their money

 

[Mr Z]

I can't agree with your comments about the margin... we are talking houses not a financial instrument. One or two silly sales don't reprice the market in quite the same way it can occur in a stock market. You need a broader sponsorship in real estate to move price on a uniform basis. Without the serious punters that does not normally happen.... be they right or wrong in the wider time frame. Of course when the bank is giving out money they all get a little tipsy... but alas...!

Auctions work well in good markets, the theater fails in flat markets. I have seen enough of that, with agents sweating bullets and me smiling, it can cut both ways and as I said when you know how they play the game it is not so easy to manipulate, you only really end up making one or two bids at the right time... or you walk away. Auction strategy was a well covered dinner party topic, most people I know had it wired. Anyway... not such an issue, agents down here are not as smart as they really think they are.