The future of Australian property prices

[singlefished]

gee an about face by the RBA by the looks of it, Kincella on the money again i reckon

and from January....

.......rates will need to come back down....or stay put.....

How many rate rises have we had since then, 3 or 4? and what is it, 2 times the big 4 have raised over and above the official cash rate?

I fail to see how kincella could have been "on the money" considering what has actually transpired.

kincellas selfish desire for low rates is fuelled by his over exposure to the property sector, nothing more, nothing less....

It's makes me laugh to think that there's as much, if not more, whinging about interest rates rising to 4.75% than there was when rates were pushed up to over 7% only a few short years ago....

 

[MACCA350]

It's makes me laugh to think that there's as much, if not more, whinging about interest rates rising to 4.75% than there was when rates were pushed up to over 7% only a few short years ago....

Bring back the 7-10% cash rate and I for one will shift the bulk of our capital back out of stocks and sink it into our interest account. I did just the opposite when rates crashed as the return was just not worth leaving it there, especially when the deposit rate drops below the rate of inflation.

This is one thing many don't think about. Sure low rates are great for those with mortgages, and the media only ever harp on about this side of the coin, but what about those with cash? If the banks want more local deposits to fund mortgages they have to intice depositors with a decent interest rate.

Cheers

 

[Agentm]

REIV has again posted today a fake 61% clearance rate for melbourne on saturday

set, as usual and with ongoing monotony, above the all important psychological barrier of 60%

120 no results reported.. Yawn.. how did that happen???

and as usual the sheep all go baa baa baa,, buy buy buy..

lol


we all know of the fake figures released last week sunday, is that the real clearance rate was 56%.. absolutely the worst for 2011.

the best news is of course that the private sales are not increasing at all.. which will mean for the ones bidding the prices up at auction, the glut of 44% of the unsold properties are not selling, but we all know the disappointed owners will all be selling at the new record high prices set by the auctions that did sell.. lol

the bidders are still setting up new record prices week in week out.. so when a bidder does show up for an auction, the lamp post, the neighbours cat, and the bidder always seem to set an new high in their frenzied bidding war..

back to being a developa and sippin lattes and calling the bubble what it is..

buy buy black sheep.. its all good out there.. trust me!!! or does that not compute???

 

[Koeln]

Many pessimists here.

But assuming the market comes down, what would be the best
way to short the Australian property market ?

What would be a short that you could sit on, without loosing
if you get the timing wrong ? (like the professor who had to do the walk

 

[SusanW]

For someone that claims to have Robots on ignore you sure like to pull up a lot of his posts .

yes, I had him on ignore, but when I come to the forum, I don't auto log on, so get to see his posts anyway. Then when I realized how harmless and predictable he is, I took him off ignore.

Now NTW, that's two posts you made without contributing to the debate.

 

[SusanW]

Many pessimists here.

I don't think so. There's just rational people interpreting the available data.

My emotion won't change the data, whether irrationally postive or negative.

 

[nunthewiser]

Now NTW, that's two posts you made without contributing to the debate.

I disagree.

The debate on your behalf seems to revolve around Robots posts it seems (even though you apparentley had him on ignore)

Originally Posted by SusanW
Either way, I skimmed his posts and all it motivated me to do was put him on ignore.

I just like to point out lifes lil hypocrocies which it seems there are many of in this thread.

Anyhoo as you were.

 

[explod]

Then when I realized how harmless and predictable he is, I took him off ignore.

He is not harmless at all. His dogmatic support of property, as the only way to go, reflects the mentality of the real estate agent industry.

Property has done brilliantly since the late 60's but of late we have entered a very dangerous overshoot in which we ought to be at least putting up some caution.

In my view the problems of money supply have never looked as bad for 70 years. It is time for great caution IMHO

The qualifications for my view have been amply aired on this and other financial threads if one wants to see it.

 

[MR.]

So much time and so little to say!

The matron has given me five. Made some friends now at summer camp resort. Met them on kitchen duty, chops a must, mr burns, pepperoni, kimosabi, Tom R, numbercruncher and Knocker.

Hey Bots do you think that Kincy fella is Kincella your lost friend? This dude keeps pacing the corridor repeating "Interest rates will come down!" Anyway, told the matron that dude doesn't deserve to be here on camp with us and should be locked up somewhere.

Explod, don't worry about seeing your psych just come visit us at summer camp!

Dangerous, you can't just go counting the "auctions with no result" as failed auctions some of those "would" have sold. These "auctions with no result" have always been there, nothing new here! However, there is a greater percentage of "auctions with no result" from earlier in the year. Think that is what Bot's means by the REIV might have changed their reporting process.

Agentm: 57% not 56% (following not written as is from REIV)

REIV
Weekend of 6th & 7th: clearance 61% revised later in week to 59%.

Weekend of 13th & 14th: clearance 61% revised later in week to 59% after the REIV wrote "The clearance rate this weekend is 61 per cent, compared to last weekends 59 per cent"

Weekend of 20th & 21st: clearance 59% revised yesterday to 57%

The REIV revised figures are released on "Wednesday's" (someone asked) Mr. REIV bigdog could have told you that!

REIV and APM have similar better clearances yesterday!
I like:
http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi...||4178404343&gclid=CKDX15fps6UCFQHabgodXSOh_g
released on Thursdays hopefully the matron lets me view it!

and finally, Robots, ya can't go posting 5 posts on a Saturday without ya do'en the bigdog thingy again. Secondly your posts are manipulating the stats and clearances might follow.

 

[MR.]

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=1226&nav2=162

The clearance rate from the 942 auctions reported this weekend was 61 per cent, compared to 57 per cent from last weekends 1014 auctions.

WOW the maket's come up 4%

 

[robots]

hello,

oh gidday everyone,

i'm all for peace love and happiness Explod, its been others that have caused mental and physical scarring amongst the ASF members

look at the socialist bloke that bashed me on swanston st, just trying to have a discussion with him and then he cracked me on the scone with his placard and then kneed me in the you know whats, amazing

like, ring up S.Keen, the Barefoot Investor, G.Minick, GPHC or any of the other anti-property "hero's" that have cost many in australia thousands and caused untold family breakdowns

oh well, thanks Nun

thankyou
Professor Robots

 

[SusanW]

like, ring up S.Keen, the Barefoot Investor, G.Minick, GPHC or any of the other anti-property "hero's" that have cost many in australia thousands and caused untold family breakdowns

you are a naughty naughty boy Botty.
Keen hasn't cost many thousands.....The nefarious actions of REAs and auctioneers has, in addition to proponents of "too much credit is not enough" banking deregulation.

I suggest you read up on the latter, and note carefully how our socialist brothers in Treasury and the RBA talk about it.

They perceive that pre banking deregulation, there wasn't enough credit, so it had to be rationed. After dereg, rationing is no longer necessary, and the noughties property boom is a result of coming off rations.

My Lord. Only a distorted ideologue could hold to such a thought.

If you read between the lines, dereg proponents are saying housing was underpriced until dereg came along......

 

[robots]

hello,

oh yeah, Keen even lost out following his own failed prophecies (sold his joint), get out of debt when it actually got cheaper to hold debt amazing

keep reading my posts and from 5 others here at ASF to experience society's true prophets, enjoy them

thankyou
Professor Robots

 

[Dangerous]

hello,

oh yeah, Keen even lost out following his own failed prophecies (sold his joint), get out of debt when it actually got cheaper to hold debt amazing

Keen did the right thing actually, I dare say his cash has earnt more than 0.2% in two years

The doomsayer economist - who forecast in 2008 that property prices could fall by 40 per cent - sold his Surry Hills apartment for $540,000 in November 2008 with recessionary fears in mind. The price of his two-bedroom Chalmers Street unit represented a 4.4 per cent annualised growth on its $480,000 purchase price. His purchase in 2006 reflected 16 per cent annual growth on its $410,000 sale in 2005.

Professor Keen's sale of the 89 sq m unit reflected $6060 a square metre.

The four sales of two bedroom units in the block so far this year reflect $6075 a square metre

 

[SusanW]

Keen even lost out following his own failed prophecies (sold his joint), get out of debt when it actually got cheaper to hold debt amazing

keep reading my posts and from 5 others here at ASF to experience society's true prophets, enjoy them

Botty, considering you are a debt aficionado, I presume you know household and public debt are moving up simultaneously.....a fresh home baked anzac biscuit if you can tell me what sector has to reduce debt to offset that.

BTW, household debt is 90% mortgages, even though 30% of us rent.

 

[SusanW]

Boy, that Enzo Raimondo is a piece of work. He's now blaming high volumes for lower clearances, when in fact, the same week last year had more auctions (1050) and higher clearance (78%) vs this week (1025 61%).

APM has Sat's Melbourne clearance at 58%, while RPData has the previous week's clearance at 54.5%.

Of course, none of this would matter to buyers genuinely needing a dwelling to live in. They'll still be happy to secure a home.

But speculators are a different breed of cattle. They have a 'keen' nose for the smell of rotting flesh, and circle above vulture like, waiting waiting waiting for vendors to drop to their knees.

It's a vicious circle now. With the speculators motivated to wait, who's to say how far prices will fall with only the support of genuine 'undersupplied' owner occupiers.

I'll stick with my commodities trading thankyou.

 

[kincella]

Morning Robots, and PI investors.....
Hmmm, all those interest rates rises by those in control, who have no interest in reality....Stevens, Swan and banker mates....
the banks are still not lending to business......like 2008 revisted, business can only hang in there for so long before they shut up shop.....

anyone noticed all the retailers and the discounting going on right now.....did you notice this is pre christmas sale time, rather than the usual no discount period....leading up to christmas......when everyman and his two dogs just has to buy all those xmas goodies......

this is different to the past years, when we became used to the massive sell off, bargains and discounts of the post xmas sales.....

the retailers are desperate for cash flow, they need the cash now, they cannot afford to wait until post xmas to offer the discounts.....
hence all the discounts out now....
(or the massive push for 2-5 year interest free credit deals)

the shoppers are not opening their wallets, regardless of the discounts on offer.....I expect we will see some of the weakest retail figures for December in years......
the banks non lending to business is having the most damage.....
we will have to wait until the end of January for the December figures to come out.....but those in charge will still be holidaying....still on another planet....
enjoy your holidays and the festive season.....
I rarely blog about the property market these days....moved on to more interesting pursuits...I might pop in again next year...or I may not
cheers

 

[nukz]

Rates pain is biting back hard

* By Peter Taylor
* From: Herald Sun
* November 24, 2010 12:00AM

THE proportion of "low-doc" mortgage customers behind on payments is surging towards its peak at the height of the GFC.

One in every 17 home loan customers with a low-documentation mortgage - held usually by the self-employed or small business owners - was at least a month behind on repayments at the end of the third quarter, according to ratings agency Fitch.

But the broader landscape is better, with only a marginal increase in payment arrears among borrowers with a conventional mortgage, who account for the vast majority of home loan customers.

Fitch analyst James Zanesi said the strong increase in arrears this year proved that low-doc borrowers had "indeed felt" the 0.75 percentage point increase in the official cash rate from March to May.

The trend in low-doc delinquencies indicated that "the worst is not behind us but is actually yet to come", he said.

Across the broad "prime", or conventional, mortgage market, the effective proportion of borrowers at least a month behind on payments climbed from 1.33 per cent to 1.37 per cent - about one in every 70.

Fitch's figures are based on the performance of securitised mortgages - those bundled up by lenders and re-sold to investors.

 

[againsthegrain]

Bot sounds like a crazy man desperately trying to argue his point no matter what facts are stacked against him, maybye his in a straight jacket and for good behaviour gets 1 hour internet time so his repies come delayed

 

[MR.]

Da big Indian fella picked up the sink at breakfast this morning. Ripped it right off the wall! Water went everywhere! He then threw it through the window and was about to walk out when that corridor pacing, interest rate dude's eyes lit up and jumped out the window first and ran to greener pastures!
Suppose now, never to be heard from again.......



There's an underlying message here I just can't put my finger on it?