The future of Australian property prices

[MR.]

Is that what it means: Rolling On Floor Laughing My A$$ Off!

Just looking for answers! I just need answers…… Robot understands…….

With this new information I do hope clearance rates pick up very soon because without Robots cheery good willed nature that is needed here, I’m going to be stringing meself up by Christmas. That’s something I also like about Teach/a his positive attitude makes you want to just get up and do something, even if it was to buy property at the top.

Hangon, Teach/a and Bots aren’t one the same? Never mind…..

but i think you need to get out more

Agree and I’ve packed me bags and the authorities will be here soon……

 

[matty77]

Forget the major cities for the moment, what do people think of the future property prices for mining towns in Australia?

 

[sinner]

after a nice little trade on the US market tonight, thought I'd share these.
realestate.com.au publishes a demand ratio which I find very informative.

been a bit of a flat old spring. I'll keep my gunpowder dry til after the next RBA rate rise methinks. should shake a few wood ducks out of the trees.

So awesome.

Thanks for bringing those plots to our attention.

Suburb of interest to me is Epping and North Epping in Sydney NSW. Take a look at those plots!

I wish there was a nationwide composite graph.

 

[robots]

hello,

oh gidday everybody, oh yeah more fictional graphs, just amazing

should be no worries Sinner, SusanW will whip up a few for your suburbs of interest, quick as, dodgy numbers, oh well

apologies to everyone as i am like a nomad at the moment and only have access on mobile most of the time, has been great reading

well, great week, few more til christmas, another year almost gone

thankyou
professor robots

 

[drsmith]

hello,

I thought you might have been at your local NAB branch bashing the counter for some of your hard earned to get a coffee.

 

[Peak Debt]

The chart tracks the last 8 months (on a month by month basis) of real property sentiment.

It is an extremely good barometer of how property is really going.

Would have thrown a few other particular ASFers in but.... Hangon, I did chart them!

Notice the blue line spike up to 70 in August! That must have been because the clearance rate rose a few percent!

Too funny !

 

[SusanW]

oh gidday everybody, oh yeah more fictional graphs, just amazing

should be no worries Sinner, SusanW will whip up a few for your suburbs of interest, quick as, dodgy numbers, oh well

Frayed knot Botty. These numbers are all the work of realestate.com.au (where do you get your numbers? )
Here's Eltham
Change the state and suburb to suit.

Cheer up Botty. Why so glum? Let's hope the cyclonic winds and rain don't kill auction clearances today hey? And if they do, the REIV can blame the weather and not lack of demand.

 

[MR.]

Agree and I’ve packed me bags and the authorities will be here soon……

Geez, what were they parked around the corner! The matron at the hospital asked “What’s your name” and I replied MR…… She just kept on asking “who”? So didn’t get off to a good start and some goons dressed in their cricket whites picked me up and put me in this room.

You know this room is unreal! Did you know you can run as fast as you can into a wall and it doesn’t hurt! I spent all afternoon running into walls seeing if I could run fast enough that I could bounce back and hit the other wall behind me. Out or 368 tries I was successful 246 times that’s a 66.8% success rate, that’s better than any auction clearance result! Wish they’d let me have access to a charting program then I could calculate if I’m getting better or not relative to auction clearance rates but the matron said “no”.

If I took all me tablets “including the green ones” the matron said I could make one phone call or email/post per day or two. So here I am…... Just wishing all those auctions well today and I believes it's wet! Susan you seemed to have picked up that Robot prodding well, you been here before under a different handle?

Anyway, I am going to be playing “Spot the Difference” on picture cards this afternoon so I’m unable to drive round putting my usual dummy bids in to get the ball rolling on some auctions. I am very much looking forward to Robot’s REIV report which I’ll read tomorrow if they let me. You guys are my eyes and ears in here, they don’t let us have too much contact with the outside world.

Anyway, just letting you know I’m having a ball. Hey, I have to get off this computer because some dude they call Kincy wants to use the phone line and unplug the dial up. Total nut case this dude is! Keeps walking up and down the corridors mumbling “interest rates will come down” or something. They should lock dudes like that up!

Best of luck with the auctions.
regards
MR.

 

[robots]

hello,

good morning brothers,

gee an about face by the RBA by the looks of it, Kincella on the money again i reckon

oh yeah, special word out to the Nun on picking it, fantastic effort man, get a christmas card this year from ASF i reckon

top day for getting out and about, myki ticket loaded

thankyou
professor robts

 

[tronic72]

I have a relative in Banking, responsible for chasing debt. Apparently WA & QLD are in big trouble with huge amounts of lenders unable to service their mortgages. Just the other day I was told of a lender who's property was valued at $450,000 in 2003, $780,000 in 2007 and now $475,000! Lender is blaming the bank for loaning them the original, plus another $200K equity who now has a $650K debt on a $475K property.......that they can't sell!

We have reached a point where new money can't get into the market. Old money is to worried about paying their existing mortgages and the overseas investors have been turned away (2 years overdue).

Banks want a deposit of $20%, which on a $400,000 home just isn't possible. Gen Y's can't save for a new iPod, let alone a house! For a while, first-home lenders could mooch off their parents equity but that's dried up as has the FHBG.

It's not rocket science. Money is hard to come by and banks want a hefty deposit. The days of 110% borrowing on homes are over. Australian property is simply UNAFFORDABLE, with Melbourne being the least affordable.

 

[explod]

It's not rocket science. Money is hard to come by and banks want a hefty deposit. The days of 110% borrowing on homes are over. Australian property is simply UNAFFORDABLE, with Melbourne being the least affordable.

Well we have a cONFE$$OR(thanks Aussie Jeff) on here that says very different.

He talks of nice times and things but did mention bubbles I think. This is going to worry sheeple everywhere.

I only go to my Psych once a month MR, maybe that's not enough in these times

 

[robots]

hello,

oh gidday, no explod, no bubbles

sinner has data and presented indicating property just moving along with inflation, thats all,

SusanW gave us all the info just the other week indicating the performance of Brisbane over 30yrs and just moving along with inflation, its a given inflation

oh well, get the Principle and Interest paid off brothers and after 10, 20, 30+ yrs you large

thankyou
Professor Robots

 

[robots]

hello,

did I mention that banks only get 30% of their funding from overseas,

not much is it brothers, gee i thought every cent came from overseas, oh well Myth Busted

thankyou
Professor Robots

 

[JTLP]

Was reading on Bloomberg yesterday that some top dog at the RBA said that interest rates are 'about right' for Australia for the next few months (which has annoyed me as I was banking on some nice rises to support my trip overseas .

How can such claims be made if inflation can't be kept under control? Surely statements like these will look pretty silly if we get another round of flattering figures?

 

[robots]

hello,

yeah, write them a letter

but all figures of recent times have pointed to a flat economy, oh well

inflation a given anyway man just like the sun coming up in the morning

thankyou
Professor Robots

 

[Dangerous]

REIV results in.
Auctions 932
Cleared 573
Clearnace 61%

Note on Thurs they said there would be 1065 auctions. If only 573 of these cleared true clearance is 54%.

Did anyone notice when they revised last weeks (21/22 November) they did not say how many had actually been cleared?

 

[medicowallet]

REIV results in.
Auctions 932
Cleared 573
Clearnace 61%

Note on Thurs they said there would be 1065 auctions. If only 573 of these cleared true clearance is 54%.

Did anyone notice when they revised last weeks (21/22 November) they did not say how many had actually been cleared?

What do these low figures mean robots?

 

[SusanW]

did I mention that banks only get 30% of their funding from overseas,

not much is it brothers, gee i thought every cent came from overseas, oh well Myth Busted

Botty, it isn't a matter of what bank foreign liabilities are at this point in time, but the cause of the upwards trend since 1990, when they were 12%. For house prices to continue rising above the rate of real GDP, we have to borrow an even higher percentage from offshore. And we have to understand we have less power to influence foreign creditors in a risk off global environment.

This will make credit supply ergo property prices more volatile in the future, in my very humble view....a climate quite different to that of the last 40 years. I am always amazed so many don't get that.

Further, one needs to keep in mind the interest paid on today's 30% foreign liabilities is wages that leave the country....no more money multiplier effect. Total bank liabilities in 2009 were 1.4 trillion, so interest on 422 billion went offshore last year. Let's say an average of 5% is being paid on medium and long term liabilities this year. That's 21 billion. Hey 2 years of that could have fully paid for NBN!!!!

Further, have a look at the primary account component of the current account. The reason we still have negative cash flow iwth the rest of the world when we are generating the occasional trade surplus, is because of the interest we are paying to borrow foreign funds.

Then look at the trend in Australian's net foreign debt. Foreign borrowings are the major reason for NFD trending up over the last 20 years, not trade deficits.

Now Botty, would you like to postulate how and when Australia is going to pay down that foreign debt? and the opportunity cost of our negative cash flow with our more savvy foreign creditors?

MR, I've not been here before under a different name. A few nights ago I skimmed Botty's posts and picked up on his MO and the endearing terms in which the forum consider the sweetheart.

 

[nunthewiser]

A few nights ago I skimmed Botty's posts and picked up on his MO and the endearing terms in which the forum consider the sweetheart.

For someone that claims to have Robots on ignore you sure like to pull up a lot of his posts .

I reckon Robots is a sweetheart and often wonder why there is so much negativity towards his freewheelin and blogster posts.

He just tellin it how it is

 

[nunthewiser]

Either way, I skimmed his posts and all it motivated me to do was put him on ignore.

yep funny place the internet.