Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Australia, in terms of its capital type cities has a history of small price falls and then going basically sideways, up down round and straite ahead for years. Regional centres are different becasue many regional areas (beach areas) are the playgorunds for thos who made it good, they have holidays homes etc. These are the places that take the hits when bad times come. Durubg the earlier part of the GFC many regional beach areas in Australia saw drops of easily 30% and are still seeing them.

Becasue there is so much movement to our capital cities, we just tend to have very low growth and as Susan pointed out in an earlier post. Real losses occur becasue growth is so low that taking into consideration inflation and the holding costs then we see losses.

All in all we are in for slow growth over the next 5 years, or in real terms losses allowing for inflation etc.

The interesting thing is that bloody big growth only lasts for 2-3 years max, the other 10 or more years before usually sees no to low growth and now that I am older and hopefully a little wiser I plan to take advantage of it, only problem is that we are about antoher 10 years away from super explosive growth like we saw in the early 2000's.

There will always be isolated areas that have some advantage that make gains for whatever reasoons but most people don't know or care how to make money from those areas.
 
Australia, in terms of its capital type cities has a history of small price falls and then going basically sideways, up down round and straite ahead for years.

Re future price action, I think history might not be such a good guide.
In the last 30 years, consider the unprecedented run up in mom gains from 00-04, 06-08.

Then consider the unprecedented frequency and amplitude of the 4 falls since GFC.

Credit growth has outpaced GDP growth by too much for too long. I agree we are in for a flat market for up to a decade. I find it interesting the RBA and Treasury keep talking about high growth, when the domestic economy is slowing down so obviously i.e. per capita house listings up over 50%; car sales and retail trade are down or flat.


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Here is an article about the Australian Housing Bubble that I had published on Ezines. The bulls most probably won't agree with any of it, so fire away with your criticism, I can take it! :D

Australian Housing Bubble

I'm interested to hear what people think about the article. Thanks! :)

Alex, the article says

"According to recent Senate Estimates Transcripts regarding data provided by the Housing Supply Council "at any one time in Australia, there are roughly 800,000 vacant dwellings". When such investment properties are left vacant with the primary aim of accumulating capital gain, this contributes nothing to the provision of shelter in Australia."

Should we assume the only reason to leave houses empty is capital gain


What about holiday homes


What about people who were on holiday when the census happened


Are they counted in the 800,000
 
Just got a flyer in the letter box,

(Hidden) Harbour, land from $269,000, House and Land $499,500

I live just a few K's from this spot and two years ago these blocks were 1 million and the packages then were no less that 2 mill.

The project was called Martha Cove on the flyer it is called "(Hidden) Harbour on the Mornington Peninsula.

Of course this is a holiday area, but by road only 55 minutes from Melbourne city.
 
Just got a flyer in the letter box,

(Hidden) Harbour, land from $269,000, House and Land $499,500

I live just a few K's from this spot and two years ago these blocks were 1 million and the packages then were no less that 2 mill.

The project was called Martha Cove on the flyer it is called "(Hidden) Harbour on the Mornington Peninsula.

Of course this is a holiday area, but by road only 55 minutes from Melbourne city.
Explod, these blocks could be "dry" blocks. There is a big price difference between "wet" meaning canal frontage and "dry". Would you check?
 
Remember it is only a loss IF you have to sell. :

Ive always loved these statements, in stocks AND in property.

I dont think the Banks and other lenders really give a toss how much you paid (unless the market value drops a chunk below what you owe on it)....only what its currently valued at if one wants to use the asset as collateral/to borrow against.

u pay 500k for an asset and it drops in value to 400k (market price)....then it is only worth 400k on paper or cash regardless .. it is still a loss.

anyhoo back to saving the world and drinking bourbon until my next brilliant moment.

well done DR nun on nailin that top ......... even robots agrees :D
 
well done DR nun on nailin that top ......... even robots agrees :D

Robots, how bout some official letters or somethin for the nun? He keeps reminding us of how great his call was!
Great call nun:D.

I know someone else who called it in May too.
What the hell letters all round!
 
Explod, these blocks could be "dry" blocks. There is a big price difference between "wet" meaning canal frontage and "dry". Would you check?

Yep, you are correct though the wet ones have halved since the first releases. A resale recently, original buyer lost half his original stake.

This whole project was a bit over the top in the first place and opened just prior to the GFC so does not represent a good sample. But it does show how careful one has to be.

I am in no way a bear on property either, time and place for all things and property is something tangible in the hand. What I did object to on this and previous property threads was the blatant ramping in front of an innocent public.
 
Robots, how bout some official letters or somethin for the nun? He keeps reminding us of how great his call was!
Great call nun:D.

I know someone else who called it in May too.
What the hell letters all round!

No, you dont' deserve it either. I tried to self proclaim my self a Major General (cause I know how to wear uniforms) but no one took any notice at all.

No, we must stand back and revere the cONFESSOR who is the great one of property clearance rates. Except lately he seems to have lost the numbers or sumptin like that.

Bubbles and lollies comerades.
 
No, you dont' deserve it either. I tried to self proclaim my self a Major General (cause I know how to wear uniforms) but no one took any notice at all.

No, we must stand back and revere the cONFESSOR who is the great one of property clearance rates. Except lately he seems to have lost the numbers or sumptin like that.

Bubbles and lollies comerades.

You mispelt cONFE$$OR

:D
 
No, you dont' deserve it either. I tried to self proclaim my self a Major General (cause I know how to wear uniforms) but no one took any notice at all.

No, we must stand back and revere the cONFESSOR who is the great one of property clearance rates. Except lately he seems to have lost the numbers or sumptin like that.

Bubbles and lollies comerades.


I suggested letters all round! Don’t you want some letters after your name? I want letters! We deserve letters!

When you self proclaim as a Major General? You aren’t speaking of the dubious clearance rate call are you?

Bots seemed to think the REIV has changed their calculation methods of late or sumptin. Hope he returns soon cause we want our letters, titles and badges otherwise there's going to be a mutiny.

RPData released their clearance figures for last weekend today.
54.5% down from 56.2 the week before last.
http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi...||4178404343&gclid=CKDX15fps6UCFQHabgodXSOh_g
 
hello,

oops, sorry forget the Grand Final of X-Factor is on and people may be watching the show

What happened in the Grand Final of the "Block"

One with a reserve of 880K didn't sell and another with a reserve of $900K sold for $1,105K

Were some far better positioned than others?
 
RPData released their clearance figures for last weekend today.
54.5% down from 56.2 the week before last.
http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi...||4178404343&gclid=CKDX15fps6UCFQHabgodXSOh_g

http://www.reiv.com.au/news/details.asp?NewsID=1022

on their site they have bumped up the auction number by 1000 but only dropped the clearance rate to 57%.

Interesting tactic. Report a higher clearance rate for 5 days, rejig it on thurs to make this saturdays look better than it really is
 
Just got a flyer in the letter box,

(Hidden) Harbour, land from $269,000, House and Land $499,500

I live just a few K's from this spot and two years ago these blocks were 1 million and the packages then were no less that 2 mill.

The project was called Martha Cove on the flyer it is called "(Hidden) Harbour on the Mornington Peninsula.

Of course this is a holiday area, but by road only 55 minutes from Melbourne city.

I remember when this development started i took a look about 3 months after starting and there was about 5 houses in total on a massive piece of land. I then visited around 6 months ago last time and not much has changed i counted approx 15-18 houses.

Wonder what happened to that housing shortage, shouldn't people be homeless because of this? Or shouldn't people be begging to get a piece of land on this site?
 
http://www.reiv.com.au/news/details.asp?NewsID=1022

on their site they have bumped up the auction number by 1000 but only dropped the clearance rate to 57%.

Interesting tactic. Report a higher clearance rate for 5 days, rejig it on thurs to make this saturdays look better than it really is

24-Nov-2010
Last weekend: 1014 auctions, clearance rate of 57 per cent

REIV
Weekend of 6th & 7th: clearance 61% revised later in week to 59%.

Weekend of 13th & 14th: clearance 61% revised later in week to 59% after the REIV wrote "The clearance rate this weekend is 61 per cent, compared to last weekends 59 per cent" :cautious:

Weekend of 20th & 21st: clearance 59% revised yesterday to 57%
 
From Realestate.com 24/11/2010 http://reareports.realestate.com.au/showNews.do?id=431
Spring has always been touted as the season in which to sell your property however, the data shows that more sales occur within autumn. Coupled with this the number of properties available for sale in autumn are typically lower, as a result vendors will probably have a better chance at selling than they would during spring.

The best time to sell is now in Autumn?

From REIV
Sunday 21st November 2010
This is the first weekend of the busiest four week period ever in the Melbourne residential auction market.

Hmmm. Three weeks to go!
 
Geez Robot's quite! Not even talking "The Block" was enough to bring him out!

Anyway,
The following chart is a real rip snorter of information.

The chart tracks the last 8 months (on a month by month basis) of real property sentiment.

It is an extremely good barometer of how property is really going. :D

Would have thrown a few other particular ASFers in but.... Hangon, I did chart them!

Notice the blue line spike up to 70 in August! That must have been because the clearance rate rose a few percent!

IMG.jpg
 
after a nice little trade on the US market tonight, thought I'd share these.
realestate.com.au publishes a demand ratio which I find very informative.

been a bit of a flat old spring. I'll keep my gunpowder dry til after the next RBA rate rise methinks. should shake a few wood ducks out of the trees.



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