The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

nomore4s · 14 March 2009

tech/a said:
Have CBA from $27.97
SUN from $5.12

Elliott played a part as in where is the stock now.

IMO the good trades will have some confluence between different methods of T/A.
I also am long a few banks around the same levels as Tech and WP without using EW - CBA @ $26.90, NAB @ $16.56 - refer my blog for entry dates etc.

ATM I using a mixture of more traditional wyckoff t/a and FrankDs method - still studying Franks method and how best to use it in my trading but I think I will eventually be using that as my major "tool".
But as you can see I've ended up with very similar trades to both tech & WP using different methods. IMO it's about application not what particular method that is used - different people will be more comfortable with different methods. Arguing about which method is best is a waste of time just about any method can be profitable. My

Frank D · 14 March 2009

wavepicker said:
Was it an illusion in October in 2007, when the AMT methodology was telling us to go long ANZ when Ew was saying it was a screaming short? Your gonna have to put up a better argument Frank

You still living in the past. You certainly have selective memory

To set the record straight, why the hell would I go long at the top of the market in 2007?

I always go long at the more robust levels, that being support.

That’s why I went long in 2008 at the channel lows

I went long 6 times… 4 winners & 2 losses.

But my winners were 3:1 risk reward on most occasion: - 10-25%

2nd time in 2009 and both should end with profits

If it fails I already know where my next entry is and where to exit.

In conclusion:- I’m always a winner even though I’ll take losses

Trembling Hand · 14 March 2009

wavepicker said:
Apart from what Nick has been kind enough to post, lately there has been little emphasis on this thread with regard to the application of EW in real trading setups, which is what most traders would like to see IMO.

Yep i have to agree on this one. More like discussing the shape of pretty clouds floating by while you are waiting for it to rain.

tech/a · 14 March 2009

Frank.

Why is it that you defend your negative position on E/W with such passion?
Can they not be complimentary?

Ive spent a great deal of time studying your writings.
There is some excellent principals in there.
While Elliott has and always will have various wave counts within various degrees,You'll always have 27 odd Dilernia principals to apply to your analysis IF X or Y occur within your dynamic framework.

Yep i have to agree on this one. More like discussing the shape of pretty clouds floating by while you are waiting for it to rain.

And it can appear that way.
Waves has explained why hes been looking and discussing the minor patterns.
If you have a look at my rather poor (to the purist) but so far accurate wave counts By AGET months apart they have been and still are clear concise and correct.

Frank D · 14 March 2009

John,

27 odd principles need to be taken in context with the market.

If a major principle or Thrust pattern is occurring from the monthly 50%
level out towards the channel extremes…

A position trader won’t need to use any of the lesser principles to trade, compared to a swing trader or a day trader.

That’s why we have principles of hoping back into trends using the 5-day
50% level for swing traders, or counter-trend traders from the 5-day highs
or lows.

Or shorting higher weekly opens and holding down into lower weekly
closes using the Weekly 50% level. And Visa Versa.

They are all set-ups with some statistical correlation to actual
market conditions, and the same applies to spiral points and the ATR of
the market for day trading.

Basically, every principle is there for the each type of trader, so that
the entry is at its most robust, therefore having less risk.

These are called statistical set-ups. That actually work in live trading conditions.

That’s why I have a negative position of E/W…

There are no generic set-ups to trade that are the same for everyone
or every type of trader. The analysis is illusionary. And it’s missing the
most critical components of technical analysis:- support resistance and
Time.

A generic set-up with statistical probability is one where every trader
trades the same pattern knowing that winners will out weight the losses.

tech/a said:
Frank.
If you have a look at my rather poor (to the purist) but so far accurate
wave counts By AGET months apart they have been and still are
clear concise and correct.

If I recall I remember you being bullish a much higher prices when there
were thrust patterns appearing about the send the markets lower in the
3th Quarter of 2008.

Then again I don't want to nit pick calls on the market, because we all get
it wrong...

As OWG famous words were “ Elliot wave is never wrong”

Too me that comes from someone who doesn’t trade for a living
and probably never will.

Elliot wave is like cask wine placed in a bottle and then labelled as 'grange'.

You know it doesn't smell right, you know it doesn't taste so good, but
you keep drinking it because everyone tells you it's grange.

tech/a · 14 March 2009

Frank you maybe thinking of this thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6211

As it turned out I was correct and copped a heap of flack for my view.
Anyway thats past and the rest (latest charts) are also history positive at that.

But my point in all this is not which analysis is the more accurate but that there are forms of analysis and practitioners of that style of analysis who when they generally concur should be listened to and if it conforms with your/my analysis then you/we had better take close notice.

There are no generic set-ups to trade that are the same for everyone
or every type of trader. The analysis is illusionary. And it’s missing the
most critical components of technical analysis:- support resistance and
Time.

Actually there are.
As pointed out there are different degrees in which Elliott can be applied to right down to 1 min. There are many generic setups offered by AGET in all timeframes suiting all style of traders.
There are time lines.
There are support and resistance levels.
Once understood like your or any analysis worth applying it isnt illusionary.
To those not versed (be it Yours/Elliott/Steidlmayer/Wyckoff) not only is it illusionary but it is un comprehendable.

Porper · 14 March 2009

Frank D said:
I’ve always said EW has too many important components that are missing
as part of it’s Methodology:- Support/resistance & Time.

Not quite sure where you get this from Frank.Even in it's true form Elliot had channel lines to mark the probable end of waves, ie.draw a trendline between waves 1 & 3 to project the wave 4 etc.Then of course we have the Fibonacci sequence, if these aren't projecting support / resistance then what are they used for ?

Frank D said:
Without TIME as part of the core methodology it becomes a Haphazard approach.

Fibonacci is also used to project turning points in the market, as in my attached chart.There are various ways to do this, too many to go into detail here.I personally use 4 or 5 techniques to come up with an area of confluence, if indeed one is apparant.

Frank D said:
But unless you have ‘time’ as part of the core model then the majority of
EW will get the timing wrong and have to rely on standardized trading
set-ups of ‘breakout’ patterns or other variables..

As has been said many times on here, Elliot isn't used as a standalone method by most Elliot analysts, but rather as "part" of a method.Using other patterns can only aid in finding high probability set ups in my mind.

Frank D said:
you don't need to label evey minor wave structure and then say
" that was a nice confirmation and giveaway that read ABC
were complete"
That's simply illusionary to the individual analyst and probably missed
by most[/B]

Disagree.The more sub divisions you label, the more chance you have of timing your entry, and, more importantly lowering your risk.Knowing when you are likely to be wrong is the most important thing in the whole set up i.m.o.

Anyway, here is my latest count of the All Ords with time projections.I still favour a low at the end of this month, despite some calling a bottom here.If I am incorrect I will know soon enough.Missing the exact bottom of this leg is unimportant in the big scheme of things.I have included a weekly chart although projections are used from the daily.

wavepicker · 14 March 2009

Hello Frank,

This is the Elliott Wave Analysis Thread.

All The Best

Wavepicker

MRC & Co · 14 March 2009

Sorry, don't want to stick my nose in here, but I think Frank explained how to add the aspect of 'time' to EW in an earlier post, perhaps he is just trying to help. If your making as much as he is, then you definately wouldn't need it, but if not, then it maybe something to consider.

Duck and cover, I'm outta here.

tech/a · 14 March 2009

MRC & Co said:
Sorry, don't want to stick my nose in here, but I think Frank explained how to add the aspect of 'time' to EW in an earlier post, perhaps he is just trying to help. If your making as much as he is, then you definately wouldn't need it, but if not, then it maybe something to consider.

Duck and cover, I'm outta here.

The addition of a time element into analysis (If you feel you need it) isnt the exclusive domain of Frank's own analysis. He does incorporate it well and yes has its place.
I dont think his comments are out of place here.

OzWaveGuy · 16 March 2009

I'm still amazed by the number of people who don't want to understand EW who wish to impart their 'wonderful' knowledge on the theory in this thread. If your looking for the bread isle, stopping shopping at Dick Smith, it isn't there.

If one has the time, you could scroll back thru this thread and the wider forum and see the same comments time and time again from the same trolls - it's time to move on, we're past it.

Rudy · 17 March 2009

OzWaveGuy said:
I'm still amazed by the number of people who don't want to understand EW who wish to impart their 'wonderful' knowledge on the theory in this thread. If your looking for the bread isle, stopping shopping at Dick Smith, it isn't there.

If one has the time, you could scroll back thru this thread and the wider forum and see the same comments time and time again from the same trolls - it's time to move on, we're past it.

Hi OWG,

In the mean time for those who are still interested in Elliott Wave analysis. Whilst we are trying to work out the various patterns that may now apply to the present circumstances it is interesting to see what has happened to the DOW since it bottomed and then rallied up causing so may Elliott Wavers to reconsider their counts. Here is a chart of that rally including the action that occurred last night out time.

We can see from the above chart that we have had a clear impulse wave up and are now about to enter the corrective phase. If the corrective wave is a Flat then we may get a double top, if a Zigzag then the move will go deeper. At this stage I am looking at a target of around the 7100 level.

Cheers

biggles · 17 March 2009

Thanks for the chart Rudy, phwww we are back on track.

Can the people who have misgivings about it start their own thread please.

I can check it out from time to time but I'm interested in learning here and giving EW a go.
I'm just don't want the likes of Rudy , Oz wave, Wavepicker, Tech/a ,Nick and others, to go away cos of the hassle, so ....look forward to the doubters thread

allwave · 17 March 2009

I am new to this thread and from what I have seen so far, there are a few excellent elliott wave analysts we can ALL learn from. Lets concentrate on the wave counts and what is unfolding, rather then debating the theory. Does the theory work? Time has shown that it does. So, as somebody said earlier, I'd rather we move on. Thanks guys for your excellent wave counts.

Rudy · 17 March 2009

biggles said:
Thanks for the chart Rudy, phwww we are back on track.

Can the people who have misgivings about it start their own thread please.

I can check it out from time to time but I'm interested in learning here and giving EW a go.
I'm just don't want the likes of Rudy , Oz wave, Wavepicker, Tech/a ,Nick and others, to go away cos of the hassle, so ....look forward to the doubters thread

Thanks Biggles. I agree with you and Allwave. I still have too much to learn about the Elliott Wave principles so I would like the thread to get back to where we were before the criticisms started. As Wavepicker said, this is an EW thread and there a many of us who would like to learn more and exchange ideas about EW.

This isn't about which religion is the one and only true religion. There are many of us older investors who like to use angles from various methodologies to confirm whether a trade is safe or not to undertake.

Cheers

OzWaveGuy · 17 March 2009

XAO - 5 up
A small five wave move up on the XAO looks complete. It has also hit some key resistance levels @ 3350 as well x2 Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% ( from wave (4) ) and 61.8% (from wave 'b' circle).

The completed 5 waves up indicates a retracement should be forthcoming then (at least) another 5 waves up to form (at a minimum) a zig-zag correction (5-3-5). The ultimate target of the XAO may be around the 3500 level where again there is strong resistance and 61.8% fib retracement level.

The impending short term retracement (a 3 wave move, or a triangle) could take the XAO back down to 3250 (a 38.2% retrace of the recent leg up) or to just under 3200 (a 61.8% of the recent leg up) and also hitting fib levels from wave (4) and b circle as shown. As some have already suggested in the forum, this retracement may be an opportunity.

Wave (5) Down - Ending Diagonal?
The leg down from the end of wave (4) is a three wave move. So this evidence suggests either an ending diagonal is forming or wave (4) is still unfolding.

The way I've labeled this chart is to imply a large ending diagonal is unfolding. In an ending diagonal scenario, 5 waves will form but all waves will contain 3 wave moves and waves 2 and 4 will overlap. So far, wave 1 contains a 3 wave move - wave 2 up is now underway with the 1st wave of three looking complete.

Should a larger 5 wave move upwards unfold, then I would consider wave (4) still unfolding and will be a triangle.

I should also point out that the recent 5 wave move upwards could be part of an expanded flat correction as the completing waves at the bottom end of the chart are a little messy and hence can be hard to interpret - So I've also got this scenario catered for in the back of my mind (eg driving under a 3200/61.8% retrace would start to get my attention). If true, the downtrend would be underway once again.

Note: Ignore the lowest bar at the bottom of the chart - that's a 62 point data anomaly from last week

Rudy · 18 March 2009

OzWaveGuy said:
XAO - 5 up

Wave (5) Down - Ending Diagonal?
The leg down from the end of wave (4) is a three wave move. So this evidence suggests either an ending diagonal is forming or wave (4) is still unfolding.

Hi OWG,

I have to admit to having a greater leaning towards the Expanded Flat pattern scenario with wave (4) still unfolding.

wavepicker · 18 March 2009

Hello Rudy,

Assuming the Irregular Flat is the structure in play, then we are looking at least 3750(assuming this is a regular flat- which is low probability since B exceeded last low (3)). This c wave has to be an impulse and as such a fast move up, therefore I am looking more so along the lines of the 3900-4000 range IF we are in fact playing out an expanded or irregular flat.

As OZ says there are other possibilities here, but at this stage when one looks at what other methodologies are suggesting together with EW these counts maybe a lower probability but nevertheless cannot be ignored.

Cheers

Rudy · 18 March 2009

wavepicker said:
Hello Rudy,

Assuming the Irregular Flat is the structure in play, then we are looking at least 3750(assuming this is a regular flat- which is low probability since B exceeded last low (3)). This c wave has to be an impulse and as such a fast move up, therefore I am looking more so along the lines of the 3900-4000 range IF we are in fact playing out an expanded or irregular flat.

As OZ says there are other possibilities here, but at this stage when one looks at what other methodologies are suggesting together with EW these counts maybe a lower probability but nevertheless cannot be ignored.

Cheers

Hi Wavepicker,

No argument from me about there being a number of possibilities. At times like this I like your idea of playing the medium term patterns in isolation. Are we in a large C leg of wave (4)? Are we in wave 1 of higher level wave circle B? Who knows because I don't. At this stage they appear to be higher probability scenarios than further downward movement. Using other TA methodologies the market does look pretty bullish at present. The XJO has broken through the 50 day EMA with more gusto that it has for many months.

I too would expect the current move to go to above the termination point of my wave A in my previous post if it is an expanded flat pattern as I mentioned.

Cheers

OzWaveGuy · 18 March 2009

Rudy said:
Hi Wavepicker,

No argument from me about there being a number of possibilities. At times like this I like your idea of playing the medium term patterns in isolation. Are we in a large C leg of wave (4)? Are we in wave 1 of higher level wave circle B? Who knows because I don't.

Let me add to this as well....you've hit the nail on the head. Whilst we discussed an upcoming bounce last week - and we 'assumed' that this correction would be relatively small (eg wave 4). However, as it turns out something a little bigger is playing out, but for those trading the upwards move would have seen a completed 5 wave thrust up on the 12th, which indicated another 5 wave move needed to occur, which it has - then some.

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