tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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- 14 October 2004
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tech, a query - the last leg from wave 4 to the low looks very much like a 3 wave move - do you have a chart with the details of this last leg?
Cheers OWG
Looks reasonable to me Rudy. There are one or two other interpretations in the smaller waves counts, but at the end of the day what you have there is realistic based on the evidence at hand.
Thanks for that. Like you, I believe that we have now only entered into a wave 4 of wave (5) and that we still have a leg down to go. Whether that leg down is an impulse that takes us down to around 2700 or a truncated wave 5 or even an ending diagonal remains to be seen.
On a completely different subject our readers may be interested in a casual observation I noticed on the relationship of waves 1 and 3 in a couple of examples. When I noticed that the S&P500 had gone down to 667 the day before yesterday this level represented a range from the termination point of wave 1 that was almost equal to the range of wave 1 itself in the current wave (5) down move.
Does anyone know the rules about viewing charts in Semilog. Chart counts can look quite different on daily charts, which i use.
Is it ok to view on semilog if a charts count is not obvious. Is this misleading though
Right on - These are classified as External Fibonacci relationships. So where you can't find a fib relationship between waves (eg Wave 1 = 61.8% of Wave 3), you can move outside the internal wave structures and find fib relationships externally on the whole wave setup like you've shown. Fib is very powerful, and very under utilized.
Hey Oz ---- didn’t think id be back so soon lol ---- dont be scared -- ill be behaved this time ----
On say a 5 min chart where I get a heavy consolidation area and then the trend resumes in the same direction, I give that area the same consideration that I would if the price had totally reversed ----- and as much importance as the previous high or low for the exercise of ‘predicting’ the possible price extension to the next level, and consequent RR ratio ---
Just curious --- in E/W analysis on say a daily chart, where u get the same condition (resumption of trend after consolidation), do E/W’s ever consider labelling that area a ‘new wave’ so to speak? ---- considering it is actually the completion of a sub cycle (wave) within a bigger cycle (wave), I would have thought it important to recognize it as such ----- I certainly do on a shorter time frame ----
cheers Oz ---- bet yr glad to have yr thread back !!
Np Cartman - I'm sure you're really a good person (and quite funny sometimes)
In the same EW sees consolidation as further sub-divisions of the current wave (or the commencement/ending of waves of higher or lower degrees - and probably what most people find difficult about EW analysis).
So these consolidation points are quite significant depending what timeframe you trade at.
I personally like to understand the bigger picture, not only for trades but to understand the social aspects as well. So the above is valid for the larger time frames as well.
lol, not my thread, I'm just surfin' here
As an outsider it does appear one can manipulate or dismiss the waves as one sees fit!
Eliminating and wave theories, Techa appears to me as being rather optimistic. When Ozwaveguy appearing pessimistic.
While I have respect for all those who offer opinions---I prefer to trade my own analysis--right or wrong.
Yes I also like both charts. Happy to post them here. I feel they do reflect along with the optimistic bias and (perhaps a change in the wind) towards Tech/a's trail of thought. Sorry they are not Elliott Wave's but that I will not pretend to understand.There is no doubt that there is a natural tendency for any analyst to project their own pessimistic or optimistic bias into an interpretation but that bias is quickly eliminated through the correct application of the process.
.....
By the way, they were a great couple of charts you posted.
Cheers
but that bias is quickly eliminated through the correct application of the process.
OZ the charts a Weekly so have given you both the weekly and Daily.
As you know AGET has algorithm wave counts so arent picture perfect.
I dont expect or need them to be in my trading.
The Weekly count (Major waves) look wrong and the lower timeframe count similar to Rudy's looks more symetrical. Ending wave 5 (3) This I prefer.Alternate count in BLUE.
Anyway trading it as a wave 4 until proven otherwise either way its bullish.
Fair enough tech/a.
You probably know my position on system generated wave counts
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Techa I would think there is too much pessimism and concern kicking about for a good rebound at this time.
That is exactly when a rebound has to occur according to EW that's why most of us miss it and buy at the top when were sure EW is the only tool I've come across that stops you doing that (or gets you out quickly if you do)
I think we'd all like a rebound and if the EW count is right mostb of us have got it very close to a fifth wave bottom or a small wave 4 and then the final bottom (not the whole bear market) for a rebound for a few months
I think our market is just finishing an A wave before going back into a B wave and then the C so we could get or appear to get quite bullish with a run in houses etc and then follow the rest of the world into a major depression.
Whereas US has had the A and the B wave and are just finishing wave 1 of C
That's why we are not as badly affected as US or UK IMO (yet). Our turn will come the piper must be paid.
you might need to scroll back for a bit as there seems to have been an uncanny amount of discussion on this thread in the last few days - probably an indication of 'frustration' and hence an impending bounce).
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