The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[prawn_86]

LOL your analysis is as good as mine OWG.

"We could go up, or we could go down" Thats my kinda thinking, but i dont need letters and numbers to say that

 

[OzWaveGuy]

LOL your analysis is as good as mine OWG.

"We could go up, or we could go down" Thats my kinda thinking, but i dont need letters and numbers to say that

LOL. In this instance you're 100% correct

 

[amory]

used on its own, EW is not much of a prediction tool. only rarely does it say ... right, this is the direction we're going & this is how far it will take us. more often than not, you need to wait for completion of a wave or an entire wave pattern to see what you were looking for.

but if there is a clear overall trend, then identification of what EW wave one is in, can help your timing & strategy quite a lot. likewise for the shorter intermediate waves, where other indicators like RSI or MACD or Coppock or even Volatility will confirm the wave pattern & which way it is heading.

so where would I say the XAO is now? having completed one or two long & short term patterns ... it is & has been for the last few weeks, forming pretty little waves (both numerical & alphabetical) & totally undecided which way its trying to go. probably waiting for the DowJones to make up its mind.

FWIW

 

[OzWaveGuy]

There is some risk in assuming the XAO will head downwards as the very short term wave structure is open to interpretation. Either another upwards move needs to occur or the XAO will fall tomorrow and confirm the next leg down.

The upwards move could bring 3533 (50% retracement of wave 'a' circle) back to short term target area.

Cheers

OWG

The XAO wave structure looks much clearer today. Right now the XAO is about to complete a Flat pattern that should see the final leg up (wave c = 5 wave impulse move) to finish near the previous short term high of 3516. Once complete this will finish wave 'b' circle and the XAO should reverse and continue downwards.

The downwards leg (wave 'c' circle) should be an impulse move of 5 waves and land close to the previous low at around 3225 (a fib ratio of 61.8% of the previous wave 'a' circle leg). This estimate may well change depending on how powerful wave 'c' circle becomes.

I'm sorta hoping that this correction finishes today and doesn't turn into a more complex correction like we saw with the double 3 that took the whole of December to finish.

Also, If I have some time later, I'll discuss why I questioned the XAO yesterday.

Cheers

OWG

 

[OzWaveGuy]

This post is more for the EW enthusiast and discusses the internal workings of the wave 'b' circle flat.

I needed to pull out my Glenn Neely Mastering Elliott Wave book today and look at some of the finer rules relating to Flats (page 11-8 if you have it).

FLATs (3-3-5)
The Flat that has unfolded (or almost unfolded) is one that contains a 'b' wave failure. Flats tend to have all 3 legs of about equal length. There are specific rules that relate to flats should one or more legs be shorter (or longer).

Horizontal Trend lines can be drawn across the start and end point of wave 'a' and the rest of the waves should come close to touching the trend lines.

If the 'b' wave traverses only between 61-80% of wave 'a' then this would be considered a 'b' wave failure. This has occurred on the chart below.

The (c) wave should complete near the end of wave (a). It is rare to have a double failure where wave b and c fail to reach the upper and lower trend lines (within 5-10%).

What led me to believe that something was up yesterday (even though a series of 5 waves down could be seen from the wave (a) top) - was wave 'c' in the (b) leg down was exactly 76.8% of wave 'a' in the same wave (b). A little too perfect, in addition the XAO rallied yesterday in a 5 wave move upwards which hinted that further upside was on the table.

XAO
The (c) wave on the XAO could be considered complete depending how you count the smaller waves, but one last push would be considered ideal and finish a 5 wave count as well. So perhaps Friday will be a low volume day with only a minor positive movement on the index and the following Monday (or even Friday afternoon) could see the downtrend resume. Let's see.

Cheers

OWG

 

[nunthewiser]

Got them BHP puts in yet m8 ?

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Got them BHP puts in yet m8 ?

No options yesterday. However, I shorted BHP yesterday after the morning climb, but exited at the low with a small profit

 

[amory]

hi OWG! just comparing your chart of last night with the one about a week ago. both times you see some more UP followed by a very bearish looking Down ... if I read you correctly.

but didn't the overnite Dow come to the rescue! from very negative to neutral, within no time at all. so far, the XAO still unable to decide ... the banks being up, but BHP RIO down. significant also, how the RSI for the XAO was last seen at 51 which is as neutral as can be.

don't reckon the week will close on a decisive note at all. maybe EW will show up more clearly next week? because isn't it the predictive capacity which gives an indicator its outstanding qualification? which I hasten to add, one should never try to force it. sometimes the market will tell you, sometimes it won't. EW is no exception to that rule. either way, next week for sure!

love your charts ...

 

[OzWaveGuy]

hi OWG! just comparing your chart of last night with the one about a week ago. both times you see some more UP followed by a very bearish looking Down ... if I read you correctly.

Depends on what time frame you are referring to....the larger trend is still down.

but didn't the overnite Dow come to the rescue!

Really don't follow the DOW that much - some days it appears to influence the XAO and some not. I leave it out of the EW equation altogether.

love your charts ...

Thanks

 

[bullbear39]

Not sure if this is too far "off-thread"??
Has anyone in ASF got some hands-on experience to share about the eSignal Advanced GET system? I sat through one of their online talks the other day and noted a few things, good and bad. Here's what I picked up.

The Good

• Automatically plots Elliott Waves at the click of a button

• Has a good user definable scanner (optional extra I think)

• A very good "dashboard" setup where you can monitor a whole range of instruments at one time - they flash certain colours when the (proprietary) trigger is hit

• They have some pretty clear cut entry/exit signals along with a proprietary trend confirmation indicator called a "false bar" that alerts you when the trend is continuing (or not)

• Initial price is not as ridiculous as some others going around

• They've been around for 20 years apparently, and have some heavyweight traders providing testimonials (ie. John Bollinger among others)

The Bad

• Lots of proprietary triggers means you're pretty much at their mercy. Sure if it works, then you'd be happy to stay with them, but the continuing cost of staying with them may blow out in future. PS: Main trigger is a Stochastic (14,3,3) crossover.

• Not enough info on other prices was supplied (broker/ brokerage/ data/ membership fees etc - all gray areas that weren't covered)

• Suspected "plant" in the chat room who kept chiming in how great it was

• I asked a direct question to the meeting administrator "how often do the signals fail" to which I was carefully ignored. Lots of other minor questions got snapped up and answered quickly, but not mine.

• The administrator said he was going to apply them on some charts and I asked him if they could be live - to which he responded "the market is closed here in the USA" - to which I and another responded that he could do it on Forex - oh yeah, forgot about that one! He did open up a live FX minute chart but I noticed their "false bar" signal was clearly wrong saying the trend was to continue up when it was obviously diving. He got out of that chart way too quickly then, probably thinking no-one realised it was wrong.

Ok maybe I'm paranoid. It did look really good and I like the fact they've been around so long. But I wonder wether a system like this would "dumb-you-down" as a trader, instead of honing your skills? And another thing, surely it can't work all the time... or they could charge 10 times what they're asking. So where are the stats for the failures?

Has anyone out there bought this? Are you using it as prescribed and is it making you a more profitable trader?

 

[tech/a]

Not sure if this is too far "off-thread"??
Has anyone in ASF got some hands-on experience to share about the eSignal Advanced GET system? I sat through one of their online talks the other day and noted a few things, good and bad. Here's what I picked up.

The Good

• Automatically plots Elliott Waves at the click of a button

• Has a good user definable scanner (optional extra I think)

• A very good "dashboard" setup where you can monitor a whole range of instruments at one time - they flash certain colours when the (proprietary) trigger is hit

• They have some pretty clear cut entry/exit signals along with a proprietary trend confirmation indicator called a "false bar" that alerts you when the trend is continuing (or not)

• Initial price is not as ridiculous as some others going around

• They've been around for 20 years apparently, and have some heavyweight traders providing testimonials (ie. John Bollinger among others)

The Bad

• Lots of proprietary triggers means you're pretty much at their mercy. Sure if it works, then you'd be happy to stay with them, but the continuing cost of staying with them may blow out in future. PS: Main trigger is a Stochastic (14,3,3) crossover.

• Not enough info on other prices was supplied (broker/ brokerage/ data/ membership fees etc - all gray areas that weren't covered)

• Suspected "plant" in the chat room who kept chiming in how great it was

• I asked a direct question to the meeting administrator "how often do the signals fail" to which I was carefully ignored. Lots of other minor questions got snapped up and answered quickly, but not mine.

• The administrator said he was going to apply them on some charts and I asked him if they could be live - to which he responded "the market is closed here in the USA" - to which I and another responded that he could do it on Forex - oh yeah, forgot about that one! He did open up a live FX minute chart but I noticed their "false bar" signal was clearly wrong saying the trend was to continue up when it was obviously diving. He got out of that chart way too quickly then, probably thinking no-one realised it was wrong.

Ok maybe I'm paranoid. It did look really good and I like the fact they've been around so long. But I wonder wether a system like this would "dumb-you-down" as a trader, instead of honing your skills? And another thing, surely it can't work all the time... or they could charge 10 times what they're asking. So where are the stats for the failures?

Has anyone out there bought this? Are you using it as prescribed and is it making you a more profitable trader?

Have EOD GET myself.

Will call back today and post some hopefully independant non biased comments to your post. Have some appointments first.

I think there is an AGet thread so perhaps would be better there.
If not I'll start one.

 

[Phillip]

Hi all

I do a little EW myself but do not consider myself no where near as efficient in order to trade on my analysis, albeit I respect EW and traders who trade on it on a frequent basis. But I would like to pose a question if I may.

I have been buying CSCO on the Nasdaq around the us$16 area and I have tried to implement some sort of EW analysis on the chart. I am truly confused with the tight range bound market. I bought CSCO based on fundamentals [ $34 billion warchest and on the prowl coupled with a tight ranging pattern, hopefully she shall break to the upside]

Can someone please conjure a CSCO EW chart? Or am I asking for too much?

TIA

Phillip

 

[tech/a]

CSCO is in a wave 4 of 5 down side conslidation pattern.
It is clear on the Weekly that it is in the final throws of an ABC corrective move,which will I think morph into a wave 5 down pattern like the daily over time.
From what I see I think there is more weakness ahead from my analysis.

First chart is Daily and the second Weekly Click on chart to expand.

3rd chart is my own preference its more symetrical.

 

[Phillip]

Thanks tech/a, very good.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Continuing from here--> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=397108&postcount=425

The XAO very short term Wave (c) could still have some further upside to go, perhaps passing the top of the (a) wave.

Inspecting the 5min chart, it does look as if the first leg of the (c) wave could be a 3 wave move - This raises the potential of an ending diagonal unfolding for wave (c). If this is the case, then a little more upside is required for completion.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

XMJ
The XMJ (resource sector) may have further to go before a reversal takes place. It appears that a five wave advance is unfolding and we nearing the completion of a small wave 4. One last push upward to complete a wave 5 is necessary.

If this breakout upwards does occur in the currently consolidating small wave 4, then the XMJ may have a run at the 10k mark or slightly under. This would place the retracement near the top of a previous wave 4. I would still consider the leg up from the 21st Nov a flat with a 'b' wave failure at this stage until evidence suggest otherwise (probably not a statement of strength as the non-EWers who frequent this thread will possibly point out, but corrections will always be hard to pin down until they are almost over ). Once complete a strong reversal should unfold.

Breaking below 8800 would make me reconsider the above view, but as of right now a 5 wave move to the downside is not evident and is therefore suggesting the larger upwards correction is incomplete.

Cheers OWG

 

[Rudy]

XMJ
The XMJ (resource sector) may have further to go before a reversal takes place. It appears that a five wave advance is unfolding and we nearing the completion of a small wave 4. One last push upward to complete a wave 5 is necessary.

If this breakout upwards does occur in the currently consolidating small wave 4, then the XMJ may have a run at the 10k mark or slightly under. This would place the retracement near the top of a previous wave 4. I would still consider the leg up from the 21st Nov a flat with a 'b' wave failure at this stage until evidence suggest otherwise (probably not a statement of strength as the non-EWers who frequent this thread will possibly point out, but corrections will always be hard to pin down until they are almost over ). Once complete a strong reversal should unfold.

Breaking below 8800 would make me reconsider the above view, but as of right now a 5 wave move to the downside is not evident and is therefore suggesting the larger upwards correction is incomplete.

Cheers OWG

Hi OWG,

I am following your discourse on the XMJ with interest and would like to clear up one point to ensure that I am following your thinking correctly.

In your post https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=395312&postcount=402 you had suggested a possible 'Double Zigzag (5-3-5) for wave B.

Am I correct in assuming that you are now suggesting an impulse wave for wave B in lieu of your former suggestion?

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Hi OWG,

I am following your discourse on the XMJ with interest and would like to clear up one point to ensure that I am following your thinking correctly.

In your post https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=395312&postcount=402 you had suggested a possible 'Double Zigzag (5-3-5) for wave B.

Am I correct in assuming that you are now suggesting an impulse wave for wave B in lieu of your former suggestion?

XMJ
A flat correction would be preferred for the XMJ. The XMJ does appear to be developing a wave 4 triangle on the 5min chart, but it also supports a completed 5 waves up as well (with a much smaller wave for wave 4 instead). Breaking below 8890, would lead me to believe the downtrend has resumed for the XMJ.

XAO
Looking at the finer XAO movements today, it strongly supports the scenario for the completed wave 'b' circle. Discussed here ---> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=397108&postcount=425 , one last push upwards did occur last Friday (although not exactly to the top of wave (a), but was very close) and now the start of 5 waves down appears to be unfolding as well - the next leg down on the XAO is underway. Whether this is true for the XMJ remains to be seen, but a break below the level described above would lead me to believe this is the case.

Cheers OWG

 

[Lachlan6]

This is how I have counted the intraday action. Looks like the bearish count (red count) is going to play out given the state of the Futures. Watch out below.

 

[bullbear39]

Have EOD GET myself.

Will call back today and post some hopefully independant non biased comments to your post. Have some appointments first.

I think there is an AGet thread so perhaps would be better there.
If not I'll start one.

So tech/a... what's the verdict on advGET? Is it a "must have" in your toolbox?