The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[OzWaveGuy]

I can't think of a pattern to explain sensibly the market action from the 23rd January to the current date.

Rudy, don't get too hung up on it. it didn't look like a 5 wave move up, so a complex correction appears valid, and there's a triangle which is a key signal. I'll post something later on how I believe it should be labeled.

Try to keep projected roadmaps as simple as possible - an expanded triangle for wave b - well maybe, but the odds simply don't favor it. How many expanded triangles have you seen lately?

Use the KISS principle + 5 wave identification

 

[Rudy]

Rudy, don't get too hung up on it. it didn't look like a 5 wave move up, so a complex correction appears valid, and there's a triangle which is a key signal. I'll post something later on how I believe it should be labeled.

Try to keep projected roadmaps as simple as possible - an expanded triangle for wave b - well maybe, but the odds simply don't favor it. How many expanded triangles have you seen lately?

Use the KISS principle + 5 wave identification

Hi OWG,

Good advice. It did seem to be quite a long shot but I couldn't think of a sensible alternate wave count. No I haven't seen very many expanded triangles in my experience which is why I thought it was a longs shot.

 

[Sean K]

Hey guys, great EW discussion.

I'm wondering if you guys are trading this, or just providing commentary of potential, and non potential, movements in the charts?

From what you've provided so far, I haven't seen any entry or exit triggers, or any trades at all.

Just curious as to how you're applying this to make money.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Hey guys, great EW discussion.

I'm wondering if you guys are trading this, or just providing commentary of potential, and non potential, movements in the charts?

From what you've provided so far, I haven't seen any entry or exit triggers, or any trades at all.

Just curious as to how you're applying this to make money.

I take positions mainly using options on moves that have a chance of lasting for awhile or CFDs. My preference is bluechip stocks most recently BHP. XJO. Don't day trade that much atm. I usually only post the XAO commentary and not individual stocks (unless someone asks about a specific stock)

 

[OzWaveGuy]

There was also some discussion on trading strategies in late December on this thread.

 

[Sean K]

Just wondering how all this benifits other ASF members.

It's all great to have a 12345ABCXABXXETC, but:

How does EW turn into profits?

Haven't actually seen it anywhere yet.

As an alternate, other people have, and are, posting live trades based on FA and other TA for scrutiny, but I have yet to see a live EW entry and exit. ANY. Just commentary about what may, or may not. Hardly useful.

Maybe the EW Analysis Thread can provide some real time examples of entry and exits based on the commentary.

Would be a very useful exercise.

 

[Rudy]

Rudy, don't get too hung up on it. it didn't look like a 5 wave move up, so a complex correction appears valid, and there's a triangle which is a key signal. I'll post something later on how I believe it should be labeled.

Try to keep projected roadmaps as simple as possible - an expanded triangle for wave b - well maybe, but the odds simply don't favor it. How many expanded triangles have you seen lately?

Use the KISS principle + 5 wave identification

Hi OWG,

Okay, hows this for an alternate KISS type pattern for the XJO then?

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Just wondering how all this benifits other ASF members.

Well then I doubt they will be interested in viewing this thread except those who have a desire to learn EW analysis or to understand where the XAO is heading.

Just commentary about what may, or may not. Hardly useful.

Obviously Opinions vary.

 

[dutchie]

G'day Kennas

I think this thread is very useful to me!

I like seeing OWGs' (et al) analysis of the XAO using EW methods and comparing it to my own ideas and analysis.

Surely every stock or analysis thread here does not need to show how to make a profit, entries,exits, stops etc.

To each his own. So if your not getting what you want out of this thread then ignore it.

Keep up the good work OWG!

Cheers

Dutchie

 

[Rudy]

Just wondering how all this benifits other ASF members.

It's all great to have a 12345ABCXABXXETC, but:

How does EW turn into profits?

Haven't actually seen it anywhere yet.

As an alternate, other people have, and are, posting live trades based on FA and other TA for scrutiny, but I have yet to see a live EW entry and exit. ANY. Just commentary about what may, or may not. Hardly useful.

Maybe the EW Analysis Thread can provide some real time examples of entry and exits based on the commentary.

Would be a very useful exercise.

Hi Kennas,

The discussion probably appears to be a bit academic to you but I like to get a picture of what our main index is doing so that I can determine when it is relatively safe to enter the market. As I tend to trade on the long side I like to know when the index is likely to be moving in the upward direction and how long it is likely to do so.

For example when we have impulse wave rallies or wave C rallies in a longer term time frame they present relatively safe trading conditions whereas periods when the market is going through short term corrective patterns it is not a good time for me to trade.

Other times for example when we are in the latter stages of a wave 3 impulse wave I might decide to pull out of the market as a market reversal during a corrective wave 4 may be followed by a truncated wave 5. So once again it is a matter of understanding where we are in the overall market wave pattern so that we can determine a safe trading environment.

I have found that in practice Elliott Wave doesn't work all that well with a lot of stocks so I use other TA methods for exact entries and exits .

Elliott Wave isn't the holy grail but when used in conjunction with other TA and FA methodologies it does provide as complete a picture of what ever we're trading as possible. Whenever you have a number of different methodologies coming up with the same outcome it increases the probability of a successful trade.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Hi OWG,

Okay, hows this for an alternate KISS type pattern for the XJO then?

View attachment 27709

A question - any reason why you apply analysis on the XJO (not that there's anything wrong with that)?

EW is usually more accurate on indexes, so the bigger the better. I personally find that the XAO is easier to analyze v's the XJO (and they follow very similar paths anyways).

 

[jackson8]

G'day Kennas

I think this thread is very useful to me!

I like seeing OWGs' (et al) analysis of the XAO using EW methods and comparing it to my own ideas and analysis.

Surely every stock or analysis thread here does not need to show how to make a profit, entries,exits, stops etc.

To each his own. So if your not getting what you want out of this thread then ignore it.

Keep up the good work OWG!

Cheers

Dutchie

totally agree with you there dutchie
have found this thread very usefull
thanks be to ozwaveguy and rudy
havent managed to make any successful trades using the good sorts thread yet

 

[OzWaveGuy]

The wave 'b' circle correction appears to have completed with a break below 3438. The 3438 target was the end of the wave (b) triangle (see detail), and as many of you already know, triangles (esp in corrections) represent a change in trend or correction will soon be at hand.

In the wave (4) flat scenario (shown), the wave 'c' circle leg could be at least 61.8% of wave 'a' circle which places wave 'c' circle termination at 3229 (or lower) - and 27 points above the low.

In a wave (4) triangle scenario wave 'c' circle could go lower.

From here, should wave 'b' circle not be completed and a bigger push up occurs, then one would consider a stop at 3438.

Cheers

OWG

 

[salsem]

my favorite counting on SP500

 

[Sean K]

totally agree with you there dutchie
have found this thread very usefull
thanks be to ozwaveguy and rudy
havent managed to make any successful trades using the good sorts thread yet

Yes, I am enjoying the thread as well, just wondering how to trade it except for after the fact. Rudy has made some good points there, cheers.

The good sorts thread is doing fine for me, don't understand why you're not doing well there.

 

[Lachlan6]

Hi Kennas.

The point you make is one that I had to also contend with for a while. However, EW is as far as I am concerned the single best way to determine which way the market or an individual stock may go.

However, I use it predominately to decide if I should be long or short in any given market. For example, I have been loading up on short positions in the US over the last week or so based purely on the EW interpretation. The overwhelming evidence suggests the next move of significance will be to the downside and today's action looks to have confirmed this. In this way I find it a priceless tool to make money trading the markets. Of course EW can at times be open to a number of interpretations but at those times I find it is best to hedge your positions between long and shorts and then manage each trade on an individual basis.

Hope this helps,

Lachlan.

 

[biggles]

I'm finding this thread terrific. Very educational and a great help in getting my brain around the counts. It takes a big effort. Most of the books just have diagrams for Bull markets too. Thanks OWG , Rudy and others.
I've been getting chopped around a lot with my trades lately but after reading this I will just wait this period out, wave 4

In his book "Trading Systems And Methods" (1998), trading system specialist Perry Kaufman presents four of Ruggiero's suggestions for trading Elliott by machine:
1) Enter wave 3 in the direction of the trend.
2) Stay out of market during wave 4.
3) Enter wave 5.
4) Take countertrend ABC at top of wave 5.


Where is the good sorts thread ?

 

[jackson8]

I'm finding this thread terrific. Very educational and a great help in getting my brain around the counts. It takes a big effort. Most of the books just have diagrams for Bull markets too. Thanks OWG , Rudy and others.

Where is the good sorts thread ?

here is the link
a good distraction for bleak times
actually must see if i can hunt down someone to add to the thread myself


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14025&page=6&highlight=good+sorts

 

[Rudy]

A question - any reason why you apply analysis on the XJO (not that there's anything wrong with that)?

EW is usually more accurate on indexes, so the bigger the better. I personally find that the XAO is easier to analyze v's the XJO (and they follow very similar paths anyways).

Hi OWG,

Actually I used to concentrate on the XAO but became involved on another forum where the flavour was the XJO. When in Rome do as the Romans do.

I agree with you that the bigger the better because of the mass psychology aspect of EW analysis and the XAO has a lot more history than the XJO as well.

In general though as you have already mentioned, both indices tend to follow each other as the XJO is a huge component of the XAO.

Cheers

 

[Rudy]

The wave 'b' circle correction appears to have completed with a break below 3438. The 3438 target was the end of the wave (b) triangle (see detail), and as many of you already know, triangles (esp in corrections) represent a change in trend or correction will soon be at hand.

In the wave (4) flat scenario (shown), the wave 'c' circle leg could be at least 61.8% of wave 'a' circle which places wave 'c' circle termination at 3229 (or lower) - and 27 points above the low.

In a wave (4) triangle scenario wave 'c' circle could go lower.

From here, should wave 'b' circle not be completed and a bigger push up occurs, then one would consider a stop at 3438.

Cheers


OWG

Hi OWG,

I like your wave count on the XAO. It's slightly different to my count on the XJO but I think that you are more accurate.......with your guidance I'll get this stuff perfect eventually . Thanks for that.

Cheers