TD1 - TALI Digital

[Go Nuke]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Yeah not good to see it fall through 30c

But not suprising either as Ive expressed in my previous posts.

There is some clear support at about 24-25c range (mostly based on a P&F chart) after that its (touch wood) around 17.c support. But that would be madness if it reached that level with the potential Avexa have.

**Stuffed that support line sorry, but support is 24-25c.**

 

[AnDy62]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Rebound back to 60-70c, oh how I wouldn't mind that

Ok then, you're on! :

I'm worried there might be a bit of bad news coming, high volume today and a very bad performance on a bullish day. Please not! Even good news doesn't seem to help the price. Opes Prime had their filthy hands on this stock didn't they? Maybe the pain will end when that's cleaned up.

 

[Wilsta]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Howist going AVX buddies? Biting your nails over this stock? DONT.

Okay so lets face facts - the stage II 48 week data (though great) didn’t have the reaction we all anticipated. This was probably due to everyone with an interest in this stock (institutional included) had bought it already. The only option for traders [not investors] was to sell off since they didn’t get the rise they were hoping for.

Okay, where does that leave people who actually believe in AVX? The biggest risk comes from the drug itself - but we won't know anymore about the ATC for a while yet.

The 2nd biggest risk [I believe] is the need for more cash to fund the stage III trials. With the credit problems out there these days - AVX may find it difficult to secure funding. Though I believe this hurdle wouldn’t be too difficult given the progress thus far - and once funding is secured [assuming it to be from outside AVX] this will secure the stage III trials future - but more importantly will show that there is confidence in ATC [since the funding company would have performed due diligence no doubt].

With risk reduction comes price rise [provided its not already built in to the price - which I dont think it is].

Let me know what you guys think - I'm no market analyst, though studying to hopefully be one oneday haha

 

[Logique]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Yes holding long. All looks good for the ATC drug, don't think they would have trouble if they did need to secure finance for phase III trials. Successful phase II trials says to me it's only a matter of time for success to come. Don't want to be caught short on this one.

 

[Cubanpete]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Find attached Wilsons Htm report on Avexa from 7th May.

What are peoples thoughts? Been holding long term but its got me a little worried...

 

[Go Nuke]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Hey thanks for sharing that info mate.

Well, it sounds like Wilsons have someone on the Avexa case

Not all good news from their point is it
I too would have thought that merck would be a great partner for Avexa. I guess the problem for us investors is that these clinical trials take so bloody long.
Hopefully Avexa will suprise us with a partnership sometime this year. I reckon they will.

As for Wilsons evaluations, they aren't good from my point of view. Even their best price target is 89cps. That would still put me at a bit of a loss...I think. I cant remember how many i picked up during the rights issue

Hey it would also only take a bit of positive exposure to the Australian Bio sector to also help out the share price.

Guess im holding for a while yet.

 

[Wilsta]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I'm still in the process of reading the article - but two things stand out so far:
- they havent met with the new member of the board who (I believe) was hired to aid in raising funds (which is one of the reports biggest concerns).
- they have decreased deal related probabilities by a conservative 20% .. I believe this should be lower (5 - 10%) in reality as it is less likely a deal would take place in the two months since their last valuation. The more time that passes the greater the chances of a deal in the remaining time etc - its not a uniform distribution.

Any thoughts?

Given the conservative approach, I'm still happy with their valuation and see it as a floor price for the stock if all goes to plan.

 

[AnDy62]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Broke support at 30c. I'm not really a trader, but that's not a good sign. Luckily, I'm in for the long term. The main issue of course is financing, given the drug looks a winner.

Financing- I'd prefer to avoid dilution with issuing shares at these prices, however I'd accept this as a last resort. A partner would be lovely, but;

Current environment is risk adverse and could be going downhill. However, the drug IMO is just too promising for AVX to not make it in terms of financing. One way or another I think it will prevail, though further downside may well present itself.

But taking a longer view, given financing, the issue then is seeing Phase III out or getting bought out. Given the success to date, I'm willing to take this risk quite happily. At this stage, AVX will have entered the lucrative HIV market and SP worries will be a thing of the past.

That's why I'm willing (I won't say happy ) to see AVX with a red number next to its name in my portfolio. Cheers, DYOR as always.

 

[uahmad]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

this ones been sideways for a while now.. nothing really happening..

Anyone know how far were off with phase III trials?

 

[Go Nuke]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Well i see todays announcement as good news.

I think its great to see Avexa dyversify into other drugs other than focusing solely on AIDS.

Perhaps if people here are speculating on AVX raising more capital, this might make them think that even more.

28c seems to be a good bottom for AVX's sp. But I'm not convinced that today will see a reversal in the trend.

 

[Gurgler]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Another surge through the Bollinger band (on volume) - prepare for a drop in SP. That's what has happened three times over the past six months.

 

[Wilsta]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

It rose due to the new report from ABN Amro on their website as well as their recent announcement...

But think it will fall along with the market on Monday ... even though high oil prices and higher unemployment in the US have little to do with them...

US fell by HEAPS on Friday trading ... buying opportunities all round.

 

[trezzy]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Ah not the news I was after! I just got on board on Friday! Though I hope AVX is gonna be a takeover target before the year's out , will be good for the company and even better for all of us

The analyst reports are still all coming back really good, so we will see how things go.

The market was down last week, but AVX went against the trend. Hopefully they do the same tomorrow with the predicted market whipping as per DJ on Friday :S

 

[Gurgler]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Ah not the news I was after! I just got on board on Friday!

Sorry to hear that, Trez. However, perhaps there is improvement on the horizon (apart from the stage 3 trials - although results not likely until early 2009) as FN Arena released this today:

Healthcare Stocks Currently Extra Attractive
FN Arena News - June 17 2008

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Healthcare analysts at ABN Amro Morgans believe investors taking another look at the Australian healthcare sector for their next set of investments seems like a sensible idea. After all, the sector is believed to be less affected by credit market concerns as well as by higher oil prices due to its largely non-discretionary nature.

For those investors willing to cast their eye over the sector, ABN Amro Morgans would advise to zoom in on the larger market capitalised companies that also have sustainable cash flow. The broker currently prefers CSL (CSL), Ramsay Healthcare ((RHC)) and Primary Healthcare ((PRY)).

For those investors looking for potentially larger investment profits, and willing to take more risks on board, the broker advises to zoom in on more speculative stocks that offer "short term value enhancing milestones" in combination with no funding problems whatsoever (the market is not really keen on debt or even increased debt in the current environment).

The stockbroker's current preferences at the more speculative end of the sector include ChemGenex ((CXS)), Avexa ((AVX)) and Impedimed ((IPD)). The latter should see FDA clearance for its lead product in the professional market in the third quarter of the current calendar year.

 

[Go Nuke]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Wilson and ABN Amro have had a buy on Avexa for about as long as i can remember to be honest.

Thats at least 12months.

ABN also have a buy on another stock i hold CUV which is shaping up quite nicely.

I'd rather have been buying into that now rather than at $1 .

But I was a new born to shares then.

 

[Pimping]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

No talk on this one for a while, anyone still following? good volume yesterday on the back of the article in financial review, wonder how the merger talks are going Mr. Nathan Drona?

 

[craftyluke]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Can anyone shed some light on the jump in share price today? I know there has been some speculation on a takeover lately. Anyone know anything?

 

[Go Nuke]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Wow I always look at this thread for comments as I'm a holder of Avexa..but you guys have read/heard more than i have.

Takeover...what this about???

I sold out of FMG today and nearly thought about buying more in AVX to try average down.
But Ive set to see a Bio stock trend like a mining stock lately..lol.

I'll have to find that article in the Fin.
Othere than that, no idea about why the sp is heading up and up. Except that i'm happy to see it do so...as its still well below the rights issue from ages back

*Couldn't find that article...is there any way you could post it for us? Thx*

 

[subaru69]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Takeover...what this about???

Hey Nuke, see you've got the same avatar still.

I've been watching both CUV and AVX for some time. I think both are great potential takeover targets. I work in a related industry and the facts are that these guys can't bring product to market in a meaningful way unless they are bought out.

I was suprised that CUV only had a minor jump when it was given a WHO generic name for its compound. Looking at buying them when they get down to 30c, problem is they trade at such low volume.

If you look at AVX's chart from the middle of April onwards there are a series of spikes but a consistent level ~30c that it comes back to. I was going to buy in a while ago but it was too volatile and I was worried there was more downside. Now I'm in around 28c, but once again volumes are low.

I have read somewhere that a potential takeover price for AVX is ~$1. (see attachment, sorry it's old - 17th Jan '08)

Ps - didn't get to buy that Porsche today , missed PDN this morning

 

[Go Nuke]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Hey Nuke, see you've got the same avatar still.

I've been watching both CUV and AVX for some time. I think both are great potential takeover targets. I work in a related industry and the facts are that these guys can't bring product to market in a meaningful way unless they are bought out.

I was suprised that CUV only had a minor jump when it was given a WHO generic name for its compound. Looking at buying them when they get down to 30c, problem is they trade at such low volume.

If you look at AVX's chart from the middle of April onwards there are a series of spikes but a consistent level ~30c that it comes back to. I was going to buy in a while ago but it was too volatile and I was worried there was more downside. Now I'm in around 28c, but once again volumes are low.

I have read somewhere that a potential takeover price for AVX is ~$1. (see attachment, sorry it's old - 17th Jan '08)

Ps - didn't get to buy that Porsche today , missed PDN this morning

LOL..its ok I reckon you might have another chance at that porsche yet

Interesting to hear your thoughts on these 2 companies. As I stated some time ago ABN AMRO have had this stock as a buy for...well forever (or so it seems)
Sadly I got in quite a bit higher than where they are trading now, so if a takeovcer were to come out I'd be hopeing its $1+ as to not cop a loss Oh though I did buy in at a high price to get the rights issue which was at 52c from memory..so $1+ would then be quite good.

Almost the same deal for CUV. Buy rating for ages..bought in around $1.
I bought into bio's to dyversify. But these were some of the first stocks I ever bought, when i knew nothing about the stock market (compared to very little now )

One thing I have noticed about these small cap bio's is they don't move much as it takes so long for clinical trials etc etc.

Anyway, it looks like if you got in at 28c...well you picked a bottom pretty well imo and probably wont go too far wrong.

Bit of the usual retracement today after hitting some nice highs today and yesterday. Its a bit of a familiar pattern with Avexa.