TD1 - TALI Digital
- Thread starter Deadcat
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Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
WTF...sold down HARD today!!
-10.23%
I must agree with what Goldmann said.
If there is 1 thing ive learnt about Bio stocks it is that when the ann keep roling out, the sp keeps climbing...but now that we have to wait years for the test result= no news so whats to keep the sp up.
Unlike commodities where its supply and demand, Bio's dont have that.
Sure to be oversold and expect a bounce back to at least 48c soon.
WTF...sold down HARD today!!
-10.23%
I must agree with what Goldmann said.
If there is 1 thing ive learnt about Bio stocks it is that when the ann keep roling out, the sp keeps climbing...but now that we have to wait years for the test result= no news so whats to keep the sp up.
Unlike commodities where its supply and demand, Bio's dont have that.
Sure to be oversold and expect a bounce back to at least 48c soon.
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Hang in there AVX buddies! Sell now and you'd be another sheep. If you bought below 50c - take comfort that you have this stock at a good price.
To say 'no more announcements are on their way soon' isnt totally true - I believe it could be sudden - perhaps in the form of a takeover bid or more collaboration - perhaps with the distribution of this drug when it reaches market.
This company is worth peanuts compared with the 'potential' upside. Dont worry about the market so much as things that directly impact the marketability or effectiveness of this drug. I think accumulate!!!
Hang in there AVX buddies! Sell now and you'd be another sheep. If you bought below 50c - take comfort that you have this stock at a good price.
To say 'no more announcements are on their way soon' isnt totally true - I believe it could be sudden - perhaps in the form of a takeover bid or more collaboration - perhaps with the distribution of this drug when it reaches market.
This company is worth peanuts compared with the 'potential' upside. Dont worry about the market so much as things that directly impact the marketability or effectiveness of this drug. I think accumulate!!!
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Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Plus it is no secret that AVX have said they are actively seeking development partners if the terms are right.... so, there will be announcements I am sure.
We may see some institutional investors coming in too..... who knows?
Plus it is no secret that AVX have said they are actively seeking development partners if the terms are right.... so, there will be announcements I am sure.
We may see some institutional investors coming in too..... who knows?
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
The drop in the SP is a case of buy the rumour and sell the fact. I think that volumes are still quite low and indicate day traders or short term investors. Day trading is a mugs game with a large percentage of traders loosing money.
I bought in at 49 and at the time believed I got a good price. I dont believe AVX's true value has dropped since then even though the SP has dropped. So I will sell when the market has put a fair price on AVX.
The drop in the SP is a case of buy the rumour and sell the fact. I think that volumes are still quite low and indicate day traders or short term investors. Day trading is a mugs game with a large percentage of traders loosing money.
I bought in at 49 and at the time believed I got a good price. I dont believe AVX's true value has dropped since then even though the SP has dropped. So I will sell when the market has put a fair price on AVX.
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Yeah your probably both right... just frustrating seeing companys SP below what "you" would think is fair and right.. but I spose AVX arent alone in this boat... I would think that Eddy Groves thinks $2 is a little under fair for ABC haha...
I will continue to hold this one... probably until they get this thing to market - or they are taken over... either day will be a glorious one for those of us who got the SPP at .20 about 2 years ago... Cant help but think though, selling half at .70, then repurchasing them at .40 would of been brilliant...
Yeah your probably both right... just frustrating seeing companys SP below what "you" would think is fair and right.. but I spose AVX arent alone in this boat... I would think that Eddy Groves thinks $2 is a little under fair for ABC haha...
I will continue to hold this one... probably until they get this thing to market - or they are taken over... either day will be a glorious one for those of us who got the SPP at .20 about 2 years ago... Cant help but think though, selling half at .70, then repurchasing them at .40 would of been brilliant...
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Couldn't agree more. And a good way to beat those pesky traders is to take advantage of when they dump a stock, i.e. AVX after this announcement. Get in at lower prices and wait for announcements/ buyers to start coming back on board. AVX is moving back to support levels around 35c. Should it hold, I will accumulate. My old man is a doctor and when he saw the ann he was very, very impressed with the stats which mean a lot more to him than me...
Couldn't agree more. And a good way to beat those pesky traders is to take advantage of when they dump a stock, i.e. AVX after this announcement. Get in at lower prices and wait for announcements/ buyers to start coming back on board. AVX is moving back to support levels around 35c. Should it hold, I will accumulate. My old man is a doctor and when he saw the ann he was very, very impressed with the stats which mean a lot more to him than me...
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Friends, who has done their homework? Below are some questions you are able to answer (google it!) ...
Hopefully you all have googled 'undetectable viral loads' and know what that means.
Since ATC is being compared (favourably) with 3TC - who has done their homework on 3TC? Revenue? Profit? Side effects? Effectiveness?
Hopefully you all know that Avexa has a market value of $160'ish million - compare this with the performance of 3TC (i.e. imagine Avexa made 3TC instead of ATC - knowing what we know now about 3TC).
Who has done their homework on other potential competitors?
ABN Amro - their valuation assumptions are on the Avexa website, what do you think of them? Conservative (if ATC comes to market)?
Friends, who has done their homework? Below are some questions you are able to answer (google it!) ...
Hopefully you all have googled 'undetectable viral loads' and know what that means.
Since ATC is being compared (favourably) with 3TC - who has done their homework on 3TC? Revenue? Profit? Side effects? Effectiveness?
Hopefully you all know that Avexa has a market value of $160'ish million - compare this with the performance of 3TC (i.e. imagine Avexa made 3TC instead of ATC - knowing what we know now about 3TC).
Who has done their homework on other potential competitors?
ABN Amro - their valuation assumptions are on the Avexa website, what do you think of them? Conservative (if ATC comes to market)?
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
If ATC comes to market - then considerable risk is gone... considering the size of this market - you would have to think that $1 is conservative... just a matter of being patient with this one...
I must say that i have no scientific qualifications and are hardly an expert in biomedicine, but the AVX story is getting wraps everywhere except the ASX...
"it wont happen over night, but it will happen"...
If ATC comes to market - then considerable risk is gone... considering the size of this market - you would have to think that $1 is conservative... just a matter of being patient with this one...
I must say that i have no scientific qualifications and are hardly an expert in biomedicine, but the AVX story is getting wraps everywhere except the ASX...
"it wont happen over night, but it will happen"...
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
I think if there are no unforseen problems and ATC goes to market the share price will pick up but this could take a while. I have owned a few stocks such as LHG that took a couple of years to take off. So unless there is a takeover offer in the mean time or some bigger Institutions move onto the share registry we will just have to be patient. At least the selling has slowed.
I think if there are no unforseen problems and ATC goes to market the share price will pick up but this could take a while. I have owned a few stocks such as LHG that took a couple of years to take off. So unless there is a takeover offer in the mean time or some bigger Institutions move onto the share registry we will just have to be patient. At least the selling has slowed.
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Has anybody got thoughts on this one? Rueters has rated this as a strong buy, I wonder if at these prices the share is looking oversold? Can any body do their sums on the value of share price compared to cash and other assets?
Has anybody got thoughts on this one? Rueters has rated this as a strong buy, I wonder if at these prices the share is looking oversold? Can any body do their sums on the value of share price compared to cash and other assets?
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
I think its being sold off because of the [expected] lack of major news to come out in the next few months. Why hold a speculative company when there is nothing to fuel the speculation? ... at least I believe this to be what the average investor thinks.
However there is no good in buying after the fact - and I'm willing and able to hold and accumulate. If you are able to hold for at least the next 9 to 12 months and believe in the fundamentals . The share price doesnt bother me - and I definitely dont try to pick a bottom. But the lower it goes (in the absence of bad news) the more I buy. But dont over-expose yourself either - it still is a speculative stock.
They also have plenty cash a.t.m .. so hopefully they wont ask us again soon for more.
I think its being sold off because of the [expected] lack of major news to come out in the next few months. Why hold a speculative company when there is nothing to fuel the speculation? ... at least I believe this to be what the average investor thinks.
However there is no good in buying after the fact - and I'm willing and able to hold and accumulate. If you are able to hold for at least the next 9 to 12 months and believe in the fundamentals . The share price doesnt bother me - and I definitely dont try to pick a bottom. But the lower it goes (in the absence of bad news) the more I buy. But dont over-expose yourself either - it still is a speculative stock.
They also have plenty cash a.t.m .. so hopefully they wont ask us again soon for more.
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Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
I doubt they will ask us for more money.
Avexa still has nearly 60Mil or something like that.
I'm suprised to see the sp as low as it is, though i totally agree with Wilsta.
This is a long term hold with no news forthcoming anytime soon while the clinical trials are ongoing.
This sort of stuff takes awhile.
But personaly if I had any money I'd be keen to perhaps add to my holding to lower my average buy in price (currently about 70c)
Though as I just stated above, the sp may fall further yet
DYOR
I doubt they will ask us for more money.
Avexa still has nearly 60Mil or something like that.
I'm suprised to see the sp as low as it is, though i totally agree with Wilsta.
This is a long term hold with no news forthcoming anytime soon while the clinical trials are ongoing.
This sort of stuff takes awhile.
But personaly if I had any money I'd be keen to perhaps add to my holding to lower my average buy in price (currently about 70c)
Though as I just stated above, the sp may fall further yet
DYOR
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Well, hard times for Avexa's share price atm.
But I've found (and don't take this as advice) that often AVX picks up when you're feeling like giving up on it it . Let's hope...
For me, I take solace in the thought that what the value of their ATC drug if/when it gets bought out (in a lucrative, yet sufficiently competitive mkt) ... will be the same irrespective of their share price.. in which case, the price should play catch up.
Might be a good time to accumulate, I can't see the share going down the gurgler with it's prospects/cash position but who knows eh?
Well, hard times for Avexa's share price atm.
But I've found (and don't take this as advice) that often AVX picks up when you're feeling like giving up on it it . Let's hope...
For me, I take solace in the thought that what the value of their ATC drug if/when it gets bought out (in a lucrative, yet sufficiently competitive mkt) ... will be the same irrespective of their share price.. in which case, the price should play catch up.
Might be a good time to accumulate, I can't see the share going down the gurgler with it's prospects/cash position but who knows eh?
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Don't bet on the fact that there won't be some fundraising activity - the accelerated Phase 3 trials they are now embarking on at the behest of the US FDA cost around $100m so if a rather large partner doesn't arrive soon watch out for the prospectus!
Don't bet on the fact that there won't be some fundraising activity - the accelerated Phase 3 trials they are now embarking on at the behest of the US FDA cost around $100m so if a rather large partner doesn't arrive soon watch out for the prospectus!
Purple XS2
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Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Avexa management has 2 major tasks:
1. to conduct the Phase III trials successfully (which means: the trials correctly evaluate the worth of ATC. Just what that worth is is irrelevent to the objective of correctly evaluating it).
2. To finance the above.
I have a high degree of confidence in management's ability on Task 1, from an administrative and medical perspective.
Task 2 requires outside factors. AVX had the dough to get Phase III rolling, but sometime this calendar year they will need extra $$. At a guess I would say $50 Mil +. Good sense suggests they get this aspect of the show well under way as soon as possible.
This is what we can hope for from the new non-exec. His task I presume is to explore the alternative to raising $ from the existing shareholders and assorted Johnny come-laters. The merger/farm-in/partnership angle may or may not be the best outcome, but it makes perfect sense to have a very serious look at it.
So anything could happen from here: actually my guess is that nothing much will happen publicly for 2 or 3 months. By that time, Avexa mangement should be in a position to bite the bullet and jump into bed with whichever is the best Big-Pharma/bankroller, or if none are sufficiently appealing, to issue a prospectus.
So is now a good time to accumulate?
Well, yes it is, but I certainly wouldn't rule out the price going below 30 cents before it goes up again to where-ever.
So long as ATC remains as it now is: promising and unproven, then at 30-40 cents, Avexa is spekkie-heaven.
Disclaimer: I hold, and if I wasn't already deeply committed, I'd be scooping up more. My accumulation phase was in the 50-70- cent range.
Avexa management has 2 major tasks:
1. to conduct the Phase III trials successfully (which means: the trials correctly evaluate the worth of ATC. Just what that worth is is irrelevent to the objective of correctly evaluating it).
2. To finance the above.
I have a high degree of confidence in management's ability on Task 1, from an administrative and medical perspective.
Task 2 requires outside factors. AVX had the dough to get Phase III rolling, but sometime this calendar year they will need extra $$. At a guess I would say $50 Mil +. Good sense suggests they get this aspect of the show well under way as soon as possible.
This is what we can hope for from the new non-exec. His task I presume is to explore the alternative to raising $ from the existing shareholders and assorted Johnny come-laters. The merger/farm-in/partnership angle may or may not be the best outcome, but it makes perfect sense to have a very serious look at it.
So anything could happen from here: actually my guess is that nothing much will happen publicly for 2 or 3 months. By that time, Avexa mangement should be in a position to bite the bullet and jump into bed with whichever is the best Big-Pharma/bankroller, or if none are sufficiently appealing, to issue a prospectus.
So is now a good time to accumulate?
Well, yes it is, but I certainly wouldn't rule out the price going below 30 cents before it goes up again to where-ever.
So long as ATC remains as it now is: promising and unproven, then at 30-40 cents, Avexa is spekkie-heaven.
Disclaimer: I hold, and if I wasn't already deeply committed, I'd be scooping up more. My accumulation phase was in the 50-70- cent range.
3 veiws of a secret
3 veiws of a secret
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Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Buenos tardes....
I must admit your post makes good reading ,but lets not forget Phase III has prove its point ,then your presumptions ,will lead us out of the wilderness of low 30 cents! I too hold bucket fulls of this share ,I hope my bucket does'nt leak anymore!
Buenos tardes....
I must admit your post makes good reading ,but lets not forget Phase III has prove its point ,then your presumptions ,will lead us out of the wilderness of low 30 cents! I too hold bucket fulls of this share ,I hope my bucket does'nt leak anymore!
Re: AVX - Avexa Limited
Ahhhhhhhh the price has fallen through 30c!!!
Buying opportunity? Lets consider that many traders would see the 30c mark as a support/floor for this stock ... and since it has fallen through this point they are all selling off - no doubt stoplosses and emotion are driving the volume.
While being a trader could be lots of fun - at the moment I have only money for investment [albeit speculative investment] - and I see nothing yet which indicates AVX to be any less of an investment than it was last week when it went to 35.5c.
GET IN THERE!
Ahhhhhhhh the price has fallen through 30c!!!
Buying opportunity?
Lets consider that many traders would see the 30c mark as a support/floor for this stock ... and since it has fallen through this point they are all selling off - no doubt stoplosses and emotion are driving the volume. While being a trader could be lots of fun - at the moment I have only money for investment [albeit speculative investment] - and I see nothing yet which indicates AVX to be any less of an investment than it was last week when it went to 35.5c.
GET IN THERE!
