TD1 - TALI Digital

[3 veiws of a secret]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Well I think I saw this Bio-hit , 17 cents today .Could I beleive my own notion that this share is driven down by what is happening to other shares in the market, ie AVX has nothing to report till phase III is completed which is light years(months) away. I'm abit suprised AVX PR dept are tight lipped,and short selling is not the problem !
Any hints ,any ideas as to why this share is sliding? I must admit I am tempted to average my portfolio in AVX if its touches 15 cents.Hmmmmmmmmm concerned I think so!

 

[subaru69]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Oops, didn't mean to give the opinion that I held either stock. Would have sold AVX today though if I was. Doesn't matter though it will go back down to ~0.3 mark again and when it does I will be buying.

Well that was a few months ago... can't say I thought it would halve from where it was. Given the fact that it is unlikely there'll be any news in the next month or 2, I can't see a good reason to jump in now given the low probability of the wider market sustaining a meaningful rally.

This now is becoming a 10c stock purely on the basis that noone (by noone I mean the inexperienced players which seem to be panicing at the moment) is going to put $$$ on spec's. To be fair I'll have to do some research and see if there is any fundamental reason for the drop, who knows maybe the drug is useless.

When things are more settled, as $$$ are flowing into the ASX50 companies, this could do nicely. That is, with the assumption trials are passed.

NB- not holding any bio-techs currently

 

[blinkau]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Isn't the share slide to do with the fact that AVX doesn't have funding to get through Phase 3 trials and has still been unable to find a partner for what is suppose to be a very impressive drug. This was due to the fact that all the majors have their own HIV departments which may differ greatly.

I believe this weakening bargaining position is leading to the stock falling and will continue to do so unless AVX receives a deal.

I bough in at 55c and again in the rights issue. I clearly overpaid for 'hopes and dreams' rather then looking at the fundamentals. You see broker research giving high price targets on future earnings which not only dont exist but are near impossible to forecast. Then when there is a risk or delay along the way they change their targets.

This is not to say the drug won't come off and the price wont recover. Its the fact that we all previously paid simply too much for the company. The price is at least more reasonable now then what it was.

 

[Hatchy]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I bought at 60 sold out at 30 and may buy back in if it keeps going south. I think that there's a good chance that a big pharma will buy this up - but how exactly will these guys do anything different?
That's got to be the key to value in this sector - there's plenty of HIV drugs out there - some do as good a job as what i've seen from the trials so far.

The notion that they've renegotiated with Shire over licencing is a bit worrying - why wouldn't Shire - who are massive - just develop the drug themselves? Had I known the licence was with Shire - I wouldn't have bought in the first place. If they're hoping another big pharma will come to the rescue - they'd have to look to shire and their 11% holding.

DYOR

 

[Goldmann]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I bought at 60 sold out at 30 and may buy back in if it keeps going south. I think that there's a good chance that a big pharma will buy this up - but how exactly will these guys do anything different?
That's got to be the key to value in this sector - there's plenty of HIV drugs out there - some do as good a job as what i've seen from the trials so far.

The notion that they've renegotiated with Shire over licencing is a bit worrying - why wouldn't Shire - who are massive - just develop the drug themselves? Had I known the licence was with Shire - I wouldn't have bought in the first place. If they're hoping another big pharma will come to the rescue - they'd have to look to shire and their 11% holding.

DYOR

My average is .32 after originally getting in at .26, and getting the placements at .20 and .55...

jeez this is hurting... could of sold round a dollar, but at this stage everything with the world was peachy and the bull market was going strong... the extra trials imposed on ATC really make you wonder if the world wants to deal with the HIV epidemic. Or if US regulators have shares in companys with existign market share....

I will continue to believe in this one... i have too... its a long term hold, but it always has been... i was just happier when the price was around my average, as my portfolio is heavily geared towards this one...

and as for the broker recs... i saw many that had this one hitting $1 and sustaining it...

 

[Wilsta]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Hey guys - saw this on E*Trade, I didnt know that Avexa was caught up in the Opes Capital issue ... hmmm.

Business Impact: The prime driver of the weakness is the severe bear market in non-resource stocks and heightened risk aversion. AVX stock caught up in the Opes Capital debacle that lenders to Opes are selling with little regard to price, is another. The volume of stock involved is unclear, as is whether the selling is complete. The expectation of potential dilution of current shareholders by another equity issue to complete funding of AVX’s lead drug candidate apricitabine (ATC’s) Phase III trial and to fund the company’s earlier stage development programs is another negative – and is magnified by the falling share price. We expect a major pharmaceutical partner to meet the $30m or so funding deficiency. This may not occur via an equity issue but then the licensing deal would reflect the assistance. According to AVX the new director ‘is an experienced international investment banker in the life sciences industry and has successfully advised numerous companies in the US, Europe, and Australia in mergers and acquisitions strategy. Most recently, he was a managing director for Challiss, an independent M&A advisory firm based in New York.’

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Its the fact that we all previously paid simply too much for the company. The price is at least more reasonable now then what it was.

On reading your post ,its put a lot of things into perspective.Of course we paid too much for the share as the ASX was spaced out with CREDIT..... I just wonder if AVX is struggling to find any partner ,because as we all know bio's are riskier then Barry Stearns, Meryl Lynch, or Meagre Stanley.

 

[Wilsta]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I think its share price has fallen over concerns that it might struggle to secure more funds ... but lets face it, it was never a bank loan that this company was going to get. This may make larger bio-tech's think twice where they put their cash however. But once the annoucement comes .. I'm sure Avexa will soar (provided the right annoucement on funds). It's not the drugs prospect in question here, but the funding. If you buy AVX now then you're really betting that the funding will come.

 

[Wilsta]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Hey guys, check this link out:

http://business.theage.com.au/business/pfizer-deals-into-local-drug-research-20081026-591q.html

Do you think Avexa could be on the receiving end of Pfizer's funds???

"...holding meetings with several Australian biotechnology companies this week with a view to including them among the six to eight investment deals she hopes to strike each year."

 

[Goldmann]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Hey guys, check this link out:

http://business.theage.com.au/business/pfizer-deals-into-local-drug-research-20081026-591q.html

Do you think Avexa could be on the receiving end of Pfizer's funds???

"...holding meetings with several Australian biotechnology companies this week with a view to including them among the six to eight investment deals she hopes to strike each year."

who knows about the Funding... but AVEXA are on the list of registered attendees... would be interesting to know what their involvement is at the conference...surely a good opportunity as any to find a partner with some cash...

 

[Phantom66]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Every one knows the product show great potential, just have to ride out the global panic. This has seen this share fall unecessarily where we know its good value and will eventually do well, i'm out of everything except this one and will cash up again on thursday with another few thousand

 

[gilbo]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Every one knows the product show great potential, just have to ride out the global panic. This has seen this share fall unecessarily where we know its good value and will eventually do well, i'm out of everything except this one and will cash up again on thursday with another few thousand

I agree Phantom. Ignoring the share price movement for the time being, the company looks to be doing the right things - looks to have made a good non-executive director appointment in the US (an M&A specialist in their key potential market) and the trials also seem to be making good progress - still producing encouraging results. Don't forget that this is a brand new drug so things do take time.

I also seem to remember reading some time ago that the timeline for the Phase III trials was shortened for AVX - but the quid pro quo was a doubling of the actual required amount of testing, hence the increase in cost for the trials (could be wrong on this though).

I'd be concerned if the share price fall was due to changing fundamentals but IMO just down to general panic around at the moment.

I'm off to the AGM on Tuesday so I'll report anything interesting.

 

[gilbo]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Upbeat AGM. Board still confident of how the trial is progressing. Key points;
+ At projected cash burn rates AVX will have $9m cash by 30.6.09
+ Cash burn rate reduced as Phase III trial recruitment has been completed
+ There is no intention at the moment to raise capital
+ Currently discussing partnership deals with a number of interested parties - although confidentiality agreements preclude any details
+ Chairman is "excited" with these discussions
+ Phase III 16-week data due 2Q2009 - a key inflexion point for share value

As far as partnership deals concerned the chairman stressed that the "best" deal will be negotiated rather than the "first" and he seemed pretty happy with where discussions were with the interested parties. He is an experienced M&A operator in the bio-sciences sector so his view carries some weight (with me anyway!)

I came away confident that the board know what they're doing and I'm pretty happy with holding AVX shares at the present moment. It certainly seems that some exciting times are ahead - hope they're good times as well!

(usual disclaimers re not financial advice and do your own research apply)

 

[Purple XS2]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Upbeat AGM. Board still confident of how the trial is progressing.
.......
+ Chairman is "excited" with these discussions
.......
As far as partnership deals concerned the chairman stressed that the "best" deal will be negotiated rather than the "first" and he seemed pretty happy with where discussions were with the interested parties.
..........

Thanks for that report, Gilbo. I would very much have liked to have attended myself, but work commitments precluded.

My impression of Avexa's mangement is that they are not a crowd who pumps up their prospects for the sake of cheering up their shareholders (much to the chagrin of the day-trader collective). Wishful thinking perhaps, but I think the company is relaxed and comfortable with the notion that the clinical results will do the talking in the fullness of time.

I hold, with restrained optimism. I figure that there are worse reasons to lose money than to back AIDs R & D.

Rgrds, P.

 

[Goldmann]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

I figure that there are worse reasons to lose money than to back AIDs R & D.

haha my thoughts exactly mate... Better donating this money to "Charity" then lining the Macquarie execs pockets for their poor performance!

my thanks also Gilbo for keeping us in the loop... i still hold, and will go down with the ship if i have to...

A 30mil shortfall certainily isnt a huge risk for some big pharma company!

 

[justiceotp]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Been a little bit quiet here whats the thoughts on this one now? At the price its at now seems worth a small punt. But wondering is anyone has heard anything new

 

[Go Nuke]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

wow Avexa is under some real selling pressure

Went below 10c today....not a good sign. Although it didnt close under 10c.

10c has been acting as some really good support...but how much more selling can it hold off?

At least the RSI is going in the right direction but volume falling with alot of sellers....doesn't look good.

 

[mitch87]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

while dissapointed this stock has slumped so much, it coincides with the entire market so it is understandable. i believe next year when the market begins its recovery and avexa edges closer to the all important phase 111 results, avx will be a quality buy but until then, im a bit worried as to how far they may continue to fall.hopefully around 10c is the absolute bottom

 

[Wilsta]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Is anyone else deeply disappointed with the merger announcement? I feel a little cheated actually … Progen doesn’t have anything to bring to the table except money (in my view). Why is the conversion at $1.35 Progen shares when they are trading under 90c!!!!!

 

[Big_Daz]

Re: AVX - Avexa Limited

Is anyone else deeply disappointed with the merger announcement? I feel a little cheated actually … Progen doesn’t have anything to bring to the table except money (in my view). Why is the conversion at $1.35 Progen shares when they are trading under 90c!!!!!

It says in one of the announcements that this is due to the assumption that they willl go ahead with the $20m buy-back of shares.

Market's reaction wasn't the greatest...what does this mean for the M & A expert they elected onto the board as a specialist in the US??? Did he think it would be better to merge with an Oz co. ahead of US???