SYR - Syrah Resources

[peter2]

It's a remarkably reliable pattern. The SP rallies on pure speculation and potential, pauses while the resource is defined, then falls during the development of the production facility.

Once production commences the SP fluctuates like any normal business, up, during good cycles and down when eco conditions or commodity prices aren't so good.

 

[basilio]

So when are these guys going to announce official commissioning of the mine ? According to the first quarter report, commissioning should happen in May with production starting in August.

No whispers at all yet although it seems that Macquarie bank has increased it's shareholdings. They generally follow the money so perhaps an announcement is close?

http://www.syrahresources.com.au/asx-announcements/2017

 

[basilio]

I'm feeling a bit sad....
A month or so ago I was made aware that Syrah was being strongly short sold. I should have thought about it a bit more ... but didn't.
Anyway I tracked down the analysis behind the organisation that decided Syrah's future was not as rosy as the current management says.
By the way lets remember that this time last year (June 21st 2016) Syrah was $6 plus a share and there was talk of $10b dollar takeover bids. When that subsided Credit Suisse produced an analysis which valued the company at $7.80 a shares. On the back of this analysis Syrah raised $194m from sophisticated investors.
After seeing how this analysis is dissected and debunked I'm wondering where the Credit Suisse analysts are hiding. (Almost certainly in plain sight...)
https://viceroyresearch.wordpress.com/2016/12/23/syrah-resources-asxsyr/

 

[basilio]

There was July 4th interim announcement which said the Balama plant is 90% completed. Costs are still as expected. Production is anticipated in August.

SP has jumped from 2.80 to $3.35 in a couple of days. Lets see how production and sales go.

 

[skc]

There was July 4th interim announcement which said the Balama plant is 90% completed. Costs are still as expected. Production is anticipated in August.

SP has jumped from 2.80 to $3.35 in a couple of days. Lets see how production and sales go.

It's really the moment of truth isn't it?! SYR will be a massive supplier to a growing but yet still small graphite market. Will it become the next Lynas with rare earth (it's only now, some 2+ years after LYC's rare earth plant becomes operational that LYC feels stablised), or will SYR enjoy better fortune with the graphite prices staying high?

 

[pixel]

It seems someone didn't keep a secret
SYR landed a sales agreement with Jiji, which was announced today and led to the usual exuberance. Of greater interest, however, is the earlier breakout on August 30th.

 

[basilio]

I wonder if the announcment of the latest sales agreement puts a nail in the short sellers coffin. I'm not sure if SYR have a full house of sales with the completion of the development.
Lets see!

 

[basilio]

The beat goes on.. So just after the last favourable news and "run" out comes another capital raising. More bickies in the coffers for insiders. I struggle to understand why the funds coming from the imminent sales from the completed operations will be insufficient to finance the new development.

But then just issuing more shares is so much easier isn't it ?

Today another run on Syrah. No obvious explanation but perhaps a bit of good news and another bout of capital raising ?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

High flag. Tgt 4.15 - 4.20

 

[Parse]

SYR is not one I normally follow but recently I have noticed it seems to be trading under fair value. There was a CR recently somewhere around $2.20 a share and it is currently performing around the high $1.70's. Morningstar has SYR valued at $3.40

Anyone know what the story is with this company?

 

[basilio]

SYR has fallen off a cliff.. It has the biggest graphite mine in the world with the best grades and is in full production... and it has fallen like a stone.

Honestly the best value for some of these companies is in the sizzle not the steak. I wonder what the instos who took big positions when it went from being an explorer to a producer are thinking.

 

[Parse]

Thanks for the reply, knew it was the biggest graphite miner. Just wondering why it is doing so badly, if it's the management or the situation or what.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Thanks for the reply, knew it was the biggest graphite miner. Just wondering why it is doing so badly, if it's the management or the situation or what.

The management guiding the inexperienced workers! They seem to find it difficult to progress through this ramp up stage without a significant issue. If one remembers the 'good luck bad luck' story, thing can only get better regarding production. The management also tend to over estimate and under deliver. Great stock to go short on as many have done previously making it the most shorted stock on the ASX.
2019 to be a better year ....

 

[greggles]

Double bottom for SYR at around $1.40? Today has seen a nice move up through resistance at $1.60. It looks like $1.80 is the next challenge, but if it gets through that it's smooth sailing until $2.10.

Could be a trading opportunity here.

 

[mikejosef]

Good prediction, moving up nicely this week on the way to 210.

 

[Smurf1976]

Double bottom for SYR at around $1.40?

I'm no chart guru but a triple bottom now that it's back down there again?

Or heading lower?

Do not hold, just watching.

 

[mikejosef]

Its been very weak for the last week or so and broke the triple bottom. I jumped in at 1.90 and got stopped out when it went below 10%.

 

[basilio]

The Big Bang for Syrah was proudly announcing they were now in commercial production in 2019. All the production problems sorted and so on .
The nasty hidden in the documentation was that the last quarter of 2018 saw net cash outflow of $23.2M with $77m in hand.

I suspect many investors are not confident Syrah can turn their business around without yet another capital raising.

 

[Ann]

As this is a pure Graphite stock it could be an excellent guide for the price of Graphite. There is no easy chart available for Graphite price. As the availability and price of Graphite turns up then this stock may be a good lead indicator. Currently the chart is falling with a solid falling overhead which will need to be overcome.

 

[basilio]

I have always had reservations Syrah. They were a prospecting company which then decided to mine its huge find. It seems to me they have not been as effective in becoming a producer .\
And as Ann points out Graphite is falling -maybe because with Syrah in production there is a truck load on the market.