SYR - Syrah Resources

[Boggo]

Let me set the scene with 2 holders of the stock.

The first one has the person sitting at screen watching the price fall saying to himself "goodness me, the price is falling". Then again and again, "it is still falling maybe I should buy more, they look cheap now. Yes, that's it, I'll average down." Followed a few days later by "that's a huge fall now it can't be my fault I am losing money so it is those rotten manipulators shorting the stock".

The second holder sitting at the screen saying "hmm, interesting movements going on, trading is very much on the sell side, market sentiment turned negative, I'll review my stop." Followed by "There goes my stop, all sold. On to next trade."

Trying to work out which group makes a profit and which one starts to quote crystal ball excel spreadsheet numbers

 

[prawn_86]

Great discussion in here. I dont hold personally i just find it amusing when people blame shorters and like the see the myths busted so to speak

 

[basilio]

Interesting discussion.

FWIW I don't think people on the other forum who think this stock has been manipulated are nuts. I have followed their work too closely to disrespect their capacity to analysis the market dispassionately.

I'm also surprised at members unwillingness to consider the possibility of stack manipulation by larger organizations. I thought one of the things we learnt from the GFC was just just how corrupt the big players were in their pursuit of a dollar. That doesn't necessarily mean that has happened here. But on form I wouldn't ignore the possibility.

My final point. In theory shares should reflect some measure of a companies current and future prospects. In that sense changes "should" be incremental unless very big news changes the picture. ie a spectacular oil/gold/mineral discovery. In this case however we see a huge collapse in the SP with no rhyme or reason. SYR is not a hopeful prospector. It has the worlds largest, cheapest graphite mine in its hands and is ready to produce within 12-18 months. I still smell a rat.

 

[basilio]

Had to add this comment again from another site.

For those that are new to the market and still think something is fundamentally wrong with SYR, this snippet from the AFR might be of interest.

"Broker Credit Suisse had written four different Syrah warrants, which gave clients the right to buy shares at agreed levels in the future. Each warrant had a stop loss limit, where the warrant could be unwound if the underlying shares passed below a certain mark. Three of the four warrants were wiped out, as Syrah fell through $2.43, $2.11 and $2.10 ... As Warrants unwind, the broker is left holding stock. Credit Suisse had 11.9 million shares at last notice... signalling the potential for a block trade.'"

Interesting ?

 

[prawn_86]

I'm also surprised at members unwillingness to consider the possibility of stack manipulation by larger organizations. I thought one of the things we learnt from the GFC was just just how corrupt the big players were in their pursuit of a dollar. That doesn't necessarily mean that has happened here. But on form I wouldn't ignore the possibility.

My final point. In theory shares should reflect some measure of a companies current and future prospects. In that sense changes "should" be incremental unless very big news changes the picture. ie a spectacular oil/gold/mineral discovery. In this case however we see a huge collapse in the SP with no rhyme or reason. SYR is not a hopeful prospector. It has the worlds largest, cheapest graphite mine in its hands and is ready to produce within 12-18 months. I still smell a rat.

In answer to your first point how can anoyone manipulate a stock with only 0.3% of it being sold short? It just doesnt make any sense. To me it looks more like a large holder/s offloading, with no buyers stepping up. Interesting to note no substantial holder changes though.

Your second point has already been discussed. They are sitting on one of the "largest, cheapest graphite deposits" (not mine). BUT, they still have to get the mine built and then sell into an extremely small market while trying to drip feed the market to keep the graphite prices where they are currently. Can the current management succeed in that? History shows that very few explorers successfully transition at all, let alone smoothly, into a miner

 

[Boggo]

Had to add this comment again from another site.
For those that are new to the market and still think something is fundamentally wrong with SYR, this snippet from the AFR might be of interest.

"Broker Credit Suisse had written four different Syrah warrants, which gave clients the right to buy shares at agreed levels in the future. Each warrant had a stop loss limit, where the warrant could be unwound if the underlying shares passed below a certain mark. Three of the four warrants were wiped out, as Syrah fell through $2.43, $2.11 and $2.10 ... As Warrants unwind, the broker is left holding stock. Credit Suisse had 11.9 million shares at last notice... signalling the potential for a block trade.'"


Interesting ?

That's how they do business and make money, how do you do it, you certainly won't by analyzing a theory.

If it's not moving in a positive direction then discard it. In my case I couldn't give a fat rats botty what has caused it, that is totally irrelevant.
The are over 1800 FPO shares on the ASX and people get hung up on the internal workings of one - that is the point that most on here are making.
The next 100 trades are what counts.

Country Lad hit the nail on the head in an earlier post above.

My

 

[prawn_86]

If it's not moving in a positive direction then discard it. In my case I couldn't give a fat rats botty what has caused it, that is totally irrelevant.

Not if you are just following the story. From a trading perspective yes, but as someone who doesnt hold any stock and has followed the story then these things are woth discussing, otherwise there would only be discussion on stocks trending up.

It is still part of the learning process to see various different patterns, results and causes

 

[Boggo]

So what is happening to SYR ? Practically 50% drop in SP in a few days on no news at all ? Currently $1.895.

Unnerving...

Not if you are just following the story. From a trading perspective yes, but as someone who doesnt hold any stock and has followed the story then these things are woth discussing, otherwise there would only be discussion on stocks trending up.

It is still part of the learning process to see various different patterns, results and causes

I agree with that prawn, I would however assume from basilio's post (copied above) that he is still holding and further comments would indicate that he has found the culprit that has 'unnerved' him and is therefore responsible for any loss that he may incur.

Maybe I am reading between the lines of his posts incorrectly.

 

[basilio]

Not a fair comment Boggo.

I do have a small interest in CSE (which of course has fallen with SYR) so I follow the shares.

Obviously shares rise and fall - sometimes dramatically. If we are in the spec side of the market its because we are looking for a quick return. In that sense we can't be too surprised when shares go up or down.

I suppose this particular situation has "unnerved" me because there seems no plausible reason for the sharp drop. When this sort of thing has happened elsewhere it often turns out to be some inside knowledge of upcoming problems.We have all watched that happen.

With regard to SYR there doesn't seem to be imminent bad news. The observations made elsewhere on the fate of mini warrants seems plausible. That doesn't mean I accept it - but I certainly have an open mind.

 

[Trembling Hand]

With regard to SYR there doesn't seem to be imminent bad news. The observations made elsewhere on the fate of mini warrants seems plausible. That doesn't mean I accept it - but I certainly have an open mind.

Really have you seen how little they trade? Really you conspiracy guys are lazy. They do NO business and you reckon they move the underlying? HOW? They is NO SHORT positions in this.

 

[basilio]

New announcement from SYR.

They are undertaking fresh drills at the Balama West deposit essentially to see if they can identify a really rich graphite hot spot.

Also starting drilling at Balama East which will just show they have squillions of extra tons of high grade graphite.

The money shot however is at the end of release. The scoping study is progressing well and they anticipate release in early May. Also

Significant progress has been made in securing off take partners and a statement will be released soon.

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...Type=0&submit=Search&section=summary&sortBy=0

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Good looking set up at this price. No breakout yet, maybe tomorrow. Res 205, 238, 248 etc.

 

[basilio]

Two excellent reports out from SYR. First one covers the development of the infrastructure to construct their graphite mine. Power, roads, port facilities. All looks as if it will be in place by years end.

Second report analyses the graphite market and in particular what is happening in China. Bottom line is that SYR seems confident of producing and selling around 220k tonnes of graphite in 2015 at around $1500 a tonne. Thats $330 mill gross in the first year. Development costs are believed to be quite low - probably $300 a tonne.

Lets see where this goes.

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=syr&f=pdf

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=syr&f=pdf

 

[basilio]

SYR powering along today. Up 17c on the strength of the recent 2 reports.

In my view the reports were merely a confirmation of what had been understood in the last 6 months - that the Balama mine was huge, easy to mine and should be highly profitable within 1-2 years.
Makes the last sell of SYR even more puzzling.

And just for good measure. The reports made no mention of the Vanadium which will also be mined with the graphite. That won't be chump change. This should be a $1billion company now

 

[prawn_86]

This should be a $1billion company now

How many companies have gone from explorer to producer, with the current management, smoothly without and teething issues or problems? I'm not saying it cant be done, but I can count the number of companies I know of like that on one hand.

 

[basilio]

How many companies have gone from explorer to producer, with the current management, smoothly without and teething issues or problems? I'm not saying it cant be done, but I can count the number of companies I know of like that on one hand.

Good point Prawn. My observations in this case are that the production operation appears to be relatively simple. Nonetheless there will need to be particular expertise brought on board. Lets assume/hope the current Board ave that in hand. And its fair to say that just because the roads and power are being developed they still have to be completed.

I was also impressed with the marketing strategy outlined by SYR. It seems they will be developing a number of off take agreements between now and 2015 which in effect would pre sell the initial production.

Of course there may well be other low cost graphite mines also in the wings . That could be an issue.

But regardless IMO this is a very promising picture.

 

[basilio]

Ouch !!!

The scoping study has come in and someone has a very red face. It seems that despite all the super deep drills with mountains of graphite found the spacings were not close enough to provide the certainty required for the scoping study provider.

So SYR is back to the drill bit to spell out the JORC capacity of their mine. And they had to retract tthe June 4th statement of future sales prospects because they were based on insufficient data.

I don't think there will be any problem with final JORC resolution. But I am surprised/amazed that the management did not conduct drills fine enough for the scoping study.

One other piece of news. The Board has brought on board has hired staff with extensive experience in developing mines.

Anyone else have any thoughts ?

PS The SP xxxt itself on the news. Is this a good time to jump back in ?

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...rkets.theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=syr

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...rkets.theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=syr

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Anyone else have any thoughts ?

PS The SP xxxt itself on the news. Is this a good time to jump back in ?

I had a few chickens counted... 6000 of them actually. Now I'm back just below my entry price. Maybe some overreaction, based on the broader market? I'm working out whether to hold. I think I will.

 

[pixel]

Ouch !!![...]
Anyone else have any thoughts ?

I think this could be a long wait and cost a lot of money. Right now, the chart is inconclusive and the Market could take a few days to sort itself out. Meanwhile, I'm taking a punt on TON.



Considering all the hype over the potential resource, I decided to sell CSE in late May at an average 16.6cps.

 

[Chief Wigam]

Samples off to the lab now, only a matter of time before the JORC announcement.

Share price tested support around 1.70 a few times and held firm.

I've seen valuations at around $12 for this company, good risk reward ratio there: 50c downside and $9.80 upside.