SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[sammy84]

Who told you I risk this much on every trade? And furthermore, that I do not have any risk management in place?

Not to pick a fight, but your last trade has shown you don't have risk management. It had no position sizing and was against the trend. So you were trading a reversal with a large proportion of your account. Adequate risk management in trading the reversal would've been to pyramid your position on the way down.

Even if you only do these types of trades rarely, they are still enough to cause huge drawdowns and ruin the smoothness of your equity curve.

My anyway

 

[Aussiest]

Those tests probably are not going to be that great.

MQG bounced back off todays lows (which it opened at) after all the 'bad news'. Nothing would surprise me...

 

[skyQuake]

Ivant, if worse comes to worse would you scale in/out of that trade? How do u plan to manage it?

Cheers

 

[James Austin]

120 minis, remember?.. thats $600 a point Let's say I'm rather stupidly aggressive. I am pretty confident of a move here.. I'll get out if S&P goes above 900 pretty confidently. Something around 920. So about 300-400 points. Yea i know. More than half my account gone. But I feel there is a reason for doing this. I don't normally go in this aggressively. Most I have had before this is 60 contracts.

Where is ya average entry price sitting?

3785ish. A good 100 points needed lol.

Who told you . . . . that I do not have any risk management in place?

you may have risk management but it is of poor quality; at least in relation to this trade

Who told you I risk this much on every trade?

I never said you did, i simply stated what happens if you do so repeatedly.

But chances are, if you are willing to risk 50% of your TC on this trade, you are likely to do it again, because this trade demonstrates you havent fully grasped the gravity of risk management nor the concept of maximum market adversity.


this trade may go your way ivant, but that isnt the point at all

 

[beamstas]

Ivan mate
100 pts = 60 grand

That's a friggin lot of money

Lets hope we don't see 4400

Cause if we do your account will be gone!

Where do you have your stops?

I would have bailed long ago!!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Enough said

if you judge asf members trading ability by the amount of posts they have made then you're the biggest fool on this forum.

 

[ivant]

In reply to all that, here is what I have to say:

When the probability is skewed in your favour, when your trading system is screaming at you that its time to go in big, which it did, that is what I will do on every occasion. The situation is that I am willing to risk half my account to make back a good 50-70% on the trade (if end up selling out at around the 3300 mark). Risk vs reward... If you are willing to lose 100-200k to make double that amount, that works well. Whether you agree or disagree, it is not relevant..

Some examples of similar situations in the last 2 years:

Shorting on the:
10th of October 2007 - 20 Jan 2008
15th of May 2008 - 14th of July 2008
and now

Going long on the:
14th of July (which proved to be a false break, yet a rebound nevertheless)
18th of November 2008
5th of March 2009

These are situations when it was the right thing to go bigger than normal. In hindsight, all of those breaks were great money making opportunities. Times when I was doubling my account a lot (although I was risking more on those occasions, as a percentage wise move).

More towards the question of how I will manage the risk, this will be more relating to how the US acts. I will be waiting for the S&P to test and successfully break the 200 day MA of 900. I will go in short as soon as the market breaks that line again. We will fall without doubt, the only thing I am worried about now is when.

 

[MichaelD]

Time for another .

Ivant,

I wonder just how much of an adverse effect this discussion has on your psychology - there's an awful lot of criticism of position sizing, risk control, and direction going on here. I wonder whether it will influence the course of this trade adversely.

(I have my own views on these matters but it doesn't seem particularly useful at this point to contribute them since I don't trade the instrument in question.)

 

[CapnBirdseye]

if you judge asf members trading ability by the amount of posts they have made then you're the biggest fool on this forum.

Wasn't a comment on ability or otherwise, merely regarding his tone.

 

[nomore4s]

you may have risk management but it is of poor quality; at least in relation to this trade

I tend to agree with James here. Risking this much of your account and the way you have scaled in as the trade has gone against you is dangerous imo.

While I hope you get out of this relatively unscathed, my account is all long atm so I'm obviously betting the market will continue to rally in the short term. But I will lose less then 5% of my account if I'm wrong but I also won't make the type of money you will make if I'm right.

As I posted earlier in the other thread - imo you are more of a gambler than a trader in terms of your risk & trade management. Some of the other posters have commented on how you must have big kahoonas etc, etc but that doesn't make you a good trader in my eyes just a risk taker.

While I acknowledge the success you have already had in doing what you have done it isn't much good if you give it all back on a couple of poor trades. Betting the way you do is fine with a couple of grand on the line but is totally different with a couple of hundred grand on the line imo.

This is not a go at you personally I'm only commenting on your trading style.

 

[nunthewiser]

if you judge asf members trading ability by the amount of posts they have made then you're the biggest fool on this forum.

TOTALLY AGREE

 

[nunthewiser]

Ivan mate
100 pts = 60 grand

That's a friggin lot of money

I would have bailed long ago!!

and to some its merely chicken feed

and to some they may play the easing in game but still have a stoploss level they will stick to

 

[ivant]

Hey Michael D Thanks for the comment. I have a good way of blocking the noise out, but yes, its probably a good idea to discuss my risk management after the trade is over lol. So, to finish of the circular conversation about risk management for now, let us wait for a few weeks/months or however long this will take.

 

[skc]

Ivan mate
100 pts = 60 grand

That's a friggin lot of money

Lets hope we don't see 4400

Cause if we do your account will be gone!

Where do you have your stops?

I would have bailed long ago!!

160 pts = ~100K

Now that's getting close to my monthly salary

 

[beamstas]

160 pts = ~100K

Now that's getting close to my monthly salary

Ha ha

 

[beamstas]

Ouch
3940
Can we break 4000?

 

[Aussiest]

Honestly... i don't know. It's quite quiet today.

I wonder if people will sell off today? I dunno... I happened to get rid of a long position i'd held for quite some time. Relieved to see it go.

 

[prawn_86]

160 pts = ~100K

Now that's getting close to my monthly salary

I want your job

 

[Ardyne]

surely people are gonna start locking in some profits.

 

[Sean K]

TOTALLY AGREE

I'm feeling pretty stupid. lol