SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[MRC & Co]

ha ha, sorry Ivan, long-tem it's best, but I do hope you cash in on your big short!

You also have monthly seasonality in your favour (which hasn't been mentioned here, but I do see you mention it in your blog, and it should never been taken too lightly), sell in May and go away!

 

[ivant]

ha ha, sorry Ivan, long-tem it's best, but I do hope you cash in on your big short!

You also have monthly seasonality in your favour (which hasn't been mentioned here, but I do see you mention it in your blog, and it should never been taken too lightly), sell in May and go away!

Without doubt!!! I posted a thing in general chat about that. Happy first of May!! I'd be worried about buying in if i was a stock operator before we retest the lows and have that capitulation type scenario..

 

[Mr J]

Gee you spend some time at the shops!

Personally, I hope the SPI does have another up leg, larger daily ranges.

It's my daily adventure. Out of the shower, and I'm seeing a bounce. I took a a punt on it earlier for a few points but was pushed out of it (by 1 point of course).

 

[beamstas]

Hey that will hurt me! I have 120 contracts riding on a fall lol! Don't wish for that... lol....

$3000 a point..

Holy cow.. You have said your account is $400k. That's nearly 1% of your account per point

Bloody Hell where is your stop loss?

 

[sammy84]

However, I think there's still some taxi driver/hair dresser/HC type characters still lurking who will dump on the next momentum led lemming rush to the cliff edge.

We've had less so called market analysts this time around calling a bottom, I think they have even been burnt enough. The bounce had a lot of conviction, and wasn't caused by mom and dads. I too have a feeling that it will be very hard to flush the last round of buyers out.

 

[ivant]

$3000 a point..

Holy cow.. You have said your account is $400k. That's nearly 1% of your account per point

Bloody Hell where is your stop loss?

120 minis, remember?.. thats $600 a point Let's say I'm rather stupidly aggressive. I am pretty confident of a move here.. I'll get out if S&P goes above 900 pretty confidently. Something around 920. So about 300-400 points. Yea i know. More than half my account gone. But I feel there is a reason for doing this. I don't normally go in this aggressively. Most I have had before this is 60 contracts.

We've had less so called market analysts this time around calling a bottom, I think they have even been burnt enough. The bounce had a lot of conviction, and wasn't caused by mom and dads. I too have a feeling that it will be very hard to flush the last round of buyers out.

The bounce itself had some conviction, but the bottom didn't I seemed to be the only one running around with my hands in the air saying that last 15 minute burst from 6450 that Friday night on the DOW was a small level capitulation.

 

[skc]

$3000 a point..

Holy cow.. You have said your account is $400k. That's nearly 1% of your account per point

Bloody Hell where is your stop loss?

I believe ivant refer to $5 mini contrcats, so just $600 per point. Penuts really.

My punt is on the market going sideways in a 300 point range, with recent highs being the upperbound. The recent strength reminded people how oversold the stocks were - and that people may not make those mistakes again.

However, new bad fundamental news may push market to new lows. What news are new and unexpected? May be a few developing country going bankrupt will do it... Mexico, Eastern Europe, Argentina

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-Countries-in-Deep-usnews-14971805.html?.&.pf=real-estate

 

[MRC & Co]

$3000 a point..

Holy cow.. You have said your account is $400k. That's nearly 1% of your account per point

Bloody Hell where is your stop loss?

They are minis. So 500-600 or closer to .15%.

 

[ivant]

I believe ivant refer to $5 mini contrcats, so just $600 per point. Penuts really.

My punt is on the market going sideways in a 300 point range, with recent highs being the upperbound. The recent strength reminded people how oversold the stocks were - and that people may not make those mistakes again.

However, new bad fundamental news may push market to new lows. What news are new and unexpected? May be a few developing country going bankrupt will do it... Mexico, Eastern Europe, Argentina

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-Countries-in-Deep-usnews-14971805.html?.&.pf=real-estate

Sideways seems to be a logical assumption. I think 3300 will be a difficult level to get through, and we will retest lows if that gets breached. I get the feeling we may go lower though. Maybe 2500? Who knows.

 

[sammy84]

The bounce itself had some conviction, but the bottom didn't I seemed to be the only one running around with my hands in the air saying that last 15 minute burst from 6450 that Friday night on the DOW was a small level capitulation.

The capitulation happened in November IMO, then it took till march to really wash everyone out. Waiting for another capitulation would seem to easy. The same way people are waiting for substantially improved news before calling a bottom. This market forces you into making the hard decisions rather than waiting for the obvious.

I'm not calling a bottom myself, but am trading that way. At least with smart money management if I'm wrong the consequences wont be that bad.
My average hold is a few months and I started entering a few new longs last night in the US and today.

 

[ivant]

The capitulation happened in November IMO, then it took till march to really wash everyone out. Waiting for another capitulation would seem to easy. The same way people are waiting for substantially improved news before calling a bottom. This market forces you into making the hard decisions rather than waiting for the obvious.

I'm not calling a bottom myself, but am trading that way. At least with smart money management if I'm wrong the consequences wont be that bad.
My average hold is a few months and I started entering a few new longs last night in the US and today.

Well the capitulation in October was stronger than the one in November. I'm not really waiting for a capitulation, I'd say I'm more watching out for it. Nearly killed me in October. Haha, we are on opposite sides of the trade.

 

[Cartman]

Well the capitulation in October was stronger than the one in November. I'm not really waiting for a capitulation, I'd say I'm more watching out for it. Nearly killed me in October. Haha, we are on opposite sides of the trade.

G'day young M8 ---- for what its worth, i agree in principle with your plan of attack --- i would have gone in a little less aggressive at this point though

for the record, i think we will see a retest of 3804 (yeah, i can be specific !!) 2nite, --- if all goes to plan, the start of your perceived capitulation will become evident by the morning --

the latest run up had some serious momentum behind it, and that can take time to diffuse (the deep pockets have to create a false market to sell to -- ie they push the price higher over time to sell their positions to other less wary deep pockets/retail traders etc --- lol --- )

by tuesday will tell the story i reckon ---- if we are above 3800-3850 on wednesday, some soul searching may be in order for shorts

but if the momentum has shifted, that would still be ok ----- very pivotable point atm ----

you are a brave man to be holding the amount of contracts you are atm Ive ---- but as the saying goes --- a faint heart never won a fair lady (or something like that haha ---)

good luck my friend --- i hope u make a squillion !!

 

[ivant]

G'day young M8 ---- for what its worth, i agree in principle with your plan of attack --- i would have gone in a little less aggressive at this point though

for the record, i think we will see a retest of 3804 (yeah, i can be specific !!) 2nite, --- if all goes to plan, the start of your perceived capitulation will become evident by the morning --

the latest run up had some serious momentum behind it, and that can take time to diffuse (the deep pockets have to create a false market to sell to -- ie they push the price higher over time to sell their positions to other less wary deep pockets/retail traders etc --- lol --- )

by tuesday will tell the story i reckon ---- if we are above 3800-3850 on wednesday, some soul searching may be in order for shorts

but if the momentum has shifted, that would still be ok ----- very pivotable point atm ----

you are a brave man to be holding the amount of contracts you are atm Ive ---- but as the saying goes --- a faint heart never won a fair lady (or something like that haha ---)

good luck my friend --- i hope u make a squillion !!

I don't expect capitulation at these levels, i expect it if we break the lows. Which is 3100. "3804" [!!] seems a logical level to assume. I am thinking that Dow could retest 8300-50. If not we will see. I think most of the run up was generated by institutions dumping. I don't think I will get more aggressive than this. But 3900 will worry me... Thanks for the post Always great to hear from you

 

[Cartman]

I don't expect capitulation at these levels, i expect it if we break the lows. Which is 3100. "3804" [!!] seems a logical level to assume. I am thinking that Dow could retest 8300-50. If not we will see. I think most of the run up was generated by institutions dumping. I don't think I will get more aggressive than this. But 3900 will worry me... Thanks for the post Always great to hear from you

Agree, i dont think capitulation will hit for a while ---- i would like to actually see a slight spike 2nite followed by a lower close (similar to 2days close) --- ie a rejection of some sort to give confidence to the short side ----

as i say Ive --- i like your plan --- it just concerns me that the momentum up has not quite died off yet on this leg ---- (all though its potentially close)

have you considered cashing a few contracts in at this point (break even), so you can re-enter at a higher point ?? --- (nothing wrong with "insurance" ) ---

would hate to see you lose too much of that capital/hard work just cause the entry was 50-100 points off

good luck with it ----- i admire your ticker !!


ps gotta head off soon ---talk 2morrow when the Oz is at 3765 !! lol ----

 

[Aussiest]

I get the feeling we may go lower though.

Gosh, a 'feeling'?! I hope you're right

 

[Aussiest]

Last night: ouch...

 

[cutz]

Don't worry it's not over yet, it should be interesting to see if maquarie's opening is enough to send shockwaves through the finance sector.

 

[Aussiest]

Hmm, yeah... Why do i get the feeling that Macquaries opening might not be that bad, or if it is a little down, that it won't rebound pretty quickly?

 

[sammy84]

Macquairie has a high beta with the market. If the market moves mac might just get dragged along with it

 

[skc]

for the record, i think we will see a retest of 3804 (yeah, i can be specific !!) 2nite, --- if all goes to plan, the start of your perceived capitulation will become evident by the morning --

What brand of crystal do you use?


From Bloomberg
Close Change Open High Low
SPI 200 3,782.00 23.00 3,759.00 3,804.00 3,758.00