Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

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Largesse said:
golly gosh you SPI boys have had it easy over the last 48 hours....

make that cash!
Click to expand...

Not if you are short Crude and SPI pretty heavily lol...

On a side thought, seems like we reentered the upwards channel, and now the resistance sits at 3775s or so. Some things are looking pretty positive out there for my dying self, we hit a lot of overbought levels again. And we pretty much had to get a sell-of today a little. If it goes up now, 3990ish is the next target.

Two treasury auctions tonight in the US, hopefully that creates a little nervousness..
 
ivant said:
hopefully that creates a little nervousness..
Click to expand...

Do you think people will get a little nervous? The bad news lately hasn't been making a dent. People are in that delusional state where they think they can't go wrong.

My guess is it'll trade a little up and down for a while before another leg down. Don't ask me for charts, this is purely what i think in terms of human psychology. I might be wrong, hopefully i am.
 
Aussiest said:
Do you think people will get a little nervous? The bad news lately hasn't been making a dent. People are in that delusional state where they think they can't go wrong.

My guess is it'll trade a little up and down for a while before another leg down. Don't ask me for charts, this is purely what i think in terms of human psychology. I might be wrong, hopefully i am.
Click to expand...

Yes, but that always happens at tops. Institutions pay for optimistic coverage, and for media to put positive spins on news. The reality is that there was some crazy volatility yesterday, and chances are it was created by the last of the selling of institutions. I could be wrong. If they are indeed all out, the news will change very quickly. Take a look at an example. Hypothetical.

CNBC reports job loss of 640,000 for this month...

Are these good news or bad news?

Now they can make this sounds like its the best news ever. Compared to last month, we are seeing a great improvement, because the number is some 40,000 better. Of course, most investors at this stage don't look at the trends, and as a result, these news have just become positive. Add that to the expected number made by several institutional traders, of 900,000, and we have a lot to cheer. Well, sure enough, that is great, and we think that it is all "priced into the cookie" and it is a lagging indicator, but that is still not a good number. Anyhow thats an obvious one. When surrounded by the hype created in the media, like people dancing on Koshie's show going "end of recession" and whatever bollocks they come up with, mum and dad investors buy into this and get killed a few weeks later.

That is without doubt what is happening now. The economy IS deteriorating and is not showing any signs of recovery, no matter what people say. No country has started raising interest rates, and there is the problem of debt coming around. Times are not as great as they are pictured. However, Carmen Wong Ulrich or whatever her name is, on her CNBC blog, said that she is getting letters of retirees putting all their money into shares at the moment. ALL. Who is on the other side of those trades? You know what I mean?

However, for me, the problem is when will the market break the resistance levels. If it keeps steaming up much more, I could be forced out of the trade. But I can guarantee everyone, that we will see S&P at 750 before the economy truly recovers.
 
ivant said:
Yes, but that always happens at tops. Institutions pay for optimistic coverage, and for media to put positive spins on news. The reality is that there was some crazy volatility yesterday, and chances are it was created by the last of the selling of institutions. I could be wrong. If they are indeed all out, the news will change very quickly. Take a look at an example. Hypothetical.

CNBC reports job loss of 640,000 for this month...

Are these good news or bad news?

Now they can make this sounds like its the best news ever. Compared to last month, we are seeing a great improvement, because the number is some 40,000 better. Of course, most investors at this stage don't look at the trends, and as a result, these news have just become positive. Add that to the expected number made by several institutional traders, of 900,000, and we have a lot to cheer. Well, sure enough, that is great, and we think that it is all "priced into the cookie" and it is a lagging indicator, but that is still not a good number. Anyhow thats an obvious one. When surrounded by the hype created in the media, like people dancing on Koshie's show going "end of recession" and whatever bollocks they come up with, mum and dad investors buy into this and get killed a few weeks later.

That is without doubt what is happening now. The economy IS deteriorating and is not showing any signs of recovery, no matter what people say. No country has started raising interest rates, and there is the problem of debt coming around. Times are not as great as they are pictured. However, Carmen Wong Ulrich or whatever her name is, on her CNBC blog, said that she is getting letters of retirees putting all their money into shares at the moment. ALL. Who is on the other side of those trades? You know what I mean?

However, for me, the problem is when will the market break the resistance levels. If it keeps steaming up much more, I could be forced out of the trade. But I can guarantee everyone, that we will see S&P at 750 before the economy truly recovers.
Click to expand...

It's funny. Just on the Channel 9 news, they reported that interest rates aren't going down and that this is a 'good sign'. But, then the next report was that unemployment may rise to 7+%! It was one of those moments

Not really sure what you mean by the "S&P will reach 750 before the economy truely recovers"?? Do you mean you think it will reach 750, as in less than 1000? Are you talking about the share price index?
 
ivant said:
Yes, but that always happens at tops. Institutions pay for optimistic coverage, and for media to put positive spins on news. The reality is that there was some crazy volatility yesterday, and chances are it was created by the last of the selling of institutions. I could be wrong. If they are indeed all out, the news will change very quickly. Take a look at an example. Hypothetical.

CNBC reports job loss of 640,000 for this month...

Are these good news or bad news?

Now they can make this sounds like its the best news ever. Compared to last month, we are seeing a great improvement, because the number is some 40,000 better. Of course, most investors at this stage don't look at the trends, and as a result, these news have just become positive. Add that to the expected number made by several institutional traders, of 900,000, and we have a lot to cheer. Well, sure enough, that is great, and we think that it is all "priced into the cookie" and it is a lagging indicator, but that is still not a good number. Anyhow thats an obvious one. When surrounded by the hype created in the media, like people dancing on Koshie's show going "end of recession" and whatever bollocks they come up with, mum and dad investors buy into this and get killed a few weeks later.

That is without doubt what is happening now. The economy IS deteriorating and is not showing any signs of recovery, no matter what people say. No country has started raising interest rates, and there is the problem of debt coming around. Times are not as great as they are pictured. However, Carmen Wong Ulrich or whatever her name is, on her CNBC blog, said that she is getting letters of retirees putting all their money into shares at the moment. ALL. Who is on the other side of those trades? You know what I mean?

However, for me, the problem is when will the market break the resistance levels. If it keeps steaming up much more, I could be forced out of the trade. But I can guarantee everyone, that we will see S&P at 750 before the economy truly recovers.
Click to expand...


I agree with you 100%, and i am in the same boat. I know it's a top and i am short but the thing is will i be able to ride my current losses out till it reverses, or will it force me out before it does.... wait and see
 
Aussiest said:
It's funny. Just on the Channel 9 news, they reported that interest rates aren't going down and that this is a 'good sign'. But, then the next report was that unemployment may rise to 7+%! It was one of those moments

Not really sure what you mean by the "S&P will reach 750 before the economy truely recovers"?? Do you mean you think it will reach 750, as in less than 1000? Are you talking about the share price index?
Click to expand...

I mean S&P 500. The US index. Currently at 900. What's that, about 15% lower from these levels? Something like that...

That is a funny back-to-back economic segment :)
 
I just find this interesting and want to know who 42S is, because I (and maybe one other here) am/are the 'propex boys' who said TH was a gun, and to me, he is. It's just odd to see what I have said in person to someone bought up on a public forum to the person via a PM.

TH makes no disguise of who he is, so who are you?

Ivan, Trader Paul is the astro guy, this guy sounds like he trades out of the MF office (and is probably a gun himself), so it's highly unlikely that it's Trader Paul. :cool:
 
Interesting community you guys have here :). Obviously we have some pretty big and experienced players amongst us :)
 

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