SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[42S]

What you want more ? with only 3 mins to go till everyone gets back from lunch

 

[ivant]

Well talk about getting raped...

Someone tell me that was institutional selling, please? Not that I am any less bearish, but that spike in the last 15 minutes of trading was a little painful.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Well talk about getting raped...

Someone tell me that was institutional selling, please? Not that I am any less bearish, but that spike in the last 15 minutes of trading was a little painful.

Where is ya average entry price sitting?

 

[ivant]

Where is ya average entry price sitting?

3785ish. A good 100 points needed lol.

 

[Ardyne]

Ive been waiting for this to drop for ages. I see the ascending triangle formation but everything else was looking bearish. Last time the U.S had a run like this was back in 2006.

Ivan I hope the U.S gets smashed tonight and you can get back into the money real soon. When that DOES happen remember the pain today because you seem to be a successful trader and you can do this till your 90 years old, you dont have to hang your balls out like you are.

GO THE BEARS

 

[ivant]

Ive been waiting for this to drop for ages. I see the ascending triangle formation but everything else was looking bearish. Last time the U.S had a run like this was back in 2006.

Ivan I hope the U.S gets smashed tonight and you can get back into the money real soon. When that DOES happen remember the pain today because you seem to be a successful trader and you can do this till your 90 years old, you dont have to hang your balls out like you are.

GO THE BEARS

Hahaha thanks heaps man!! Thankfully the pain isn't great at the moment. Although at 3950s ill be feeling a lot. I'm ok at the moment. I thought we could be testing the 3900 levels. It is higher that i was not anticipating. I'm kind of hoping for a smashing over this week in Chicago. All i can do now is hope. I have definitely assumed way too much risk on this trade, and I knew that i was doing it. So here is the day of judgement, either I over-trade and the risk pays off, or I start over. Well not over, but start with small sizes again. Obviously I prefer the first option

This is looking too much like May 2008, when we tested 6000. Ironically, I was shorting that and lost 12k in the process, and I got closed out at the 5950s levels.

 

[Rick_Hunter]

Goodluck Ivan, I also hope it all works out for you (and for me! haha), as I admire the way you trade, completely different from the crowd and having strong beliefs in what you do. It takes a lot of courage to step away from the crowd, especially when things continue to go against you.


On a better note, it seems the SPI futures are waking up a bit, already down about 20-30pts from the 3883 finish at the end of today (where I thought it was ridiculously overbought considering the US futures barely budged all day)
So even if the US stays flat tonight, I think our market will come back to reality a bit (I hope)

What I'm really afraid of in a few days time, is the results of the "banking" stress tests. I just can't help feel that this is gonna give Wall Street another reason to rally one more time, and perhaps strongly. The last time Geinther released the new banking plan, even though almost every economist said it was crap, wall st. went up 7%!!

 

[MichaelD]

My .

I have no idea what the future holds and am not making any judgements on any specific trades, but if we continue upwards like this, then this is a good example of the major pitfall of mean reversion trading.

viz - you're right most of the time, and that makes you feel good, but when you're wrong, you're taken to the cleaners and lose months, even years, of hard work.

It's an interesting contrast to the trend following modus operandi, where you feel bad pretty much all the time as you're constantly in drawdown, with fleeting moments of happiness as you reach equity peaks.

 

[Trembling Hand]

For some reason I'm having this argument with this Dude via PM. As I have no idea why I've triggered such interest from him I am now posting it here

I clear through MF I did use Fortis but they don't have Locals , offices like MF does . On the other hand it is possible to deal with Fortis through Propex if you want to cut a deal with them .

Thanks for that but its of no use to me.

And

FYI

I don't claim to be a great trader. Just a profitable one and have posted or sent people statements representing 1000s of trades to prove it.

which is far more than anyone else on these boards have done to back up their bullsh!t

cheers,
Jason

FYI ?

I have given that some thought and me thinks you are telling porky pies , the boy's at Propex tell me you think your a gun but aint so .

Anyone who is constantly posting on forums about their success yet who is trading retail well say no more .

Maybe that is why Max didn't give you a spot ? .

Was trying to give you a leg up but if you want to be a sarcastic prick two can play that game .

What the hell are you talking about. You fool.

Where have I constantly posted about my success.

I have openly said that I didn't get a gig at propex 3or more years ago.

I have also said that the reason i don't try to get another gig at propex is I would have to trade larger than my 3 to 5 lot scalps on the SPI and HSI. which would then require me to change my trading style just to make the same.

Where the hell did I say ANYWHERE I was a gun. Where have I ever claimed any amount of profitable trading without backing it up with a statement. You are a damn weird Person to come along and bang on about this rubbish. Why don't you just post here in the open and get to your point.

Cheers

 

[Cartman]

3785ish. A good 100 points needed

"Ive" --- u know my position on your position ----- No advice as such from me, but considering i have been where you are a couple of times , there are a squillion things you could/ or need to consider ----

a) what if it continues higher
b) am i in a position to ride that higher level out
c) what are my current options b4 it gets to that point
d) how much am i prepared to risk, and what are the best methods to limit that risk at this point in time
e) is it possible to turn the trade into an eventual winning trade by adding "time" to the equation ? ie cover it incrementally as it goes higher (so long as your bank is sufficient)

f) if you try e), what is the best way/levels to do that

g) if i do e and f and still lose, is the risk/possible saving worth the stress, etc etc

the list is a long one my friend (i reckon i could come up with another 20 points no probs), but only you can come to the conclusions that fit your situation ----

Dont sit idle ---- Come up with a plan of attack and follow it through --- try and make it a plan that minimises your losses ---- dont wait for your bank to sit at minus 50% and be sitting in hope --- losing 15% of your capital may end up being a blessing, or it may totally p#ss you off when the market does exactly what you expected, but a week later than you planned for (but who can be sure !!) hindsight may punish you or make you feel relieved, but hindsight is useless at the moment !!! ---- your current advantage is your bank it large ---- only risk what is bearable -----

my heart goes out to you my young M8 ---- try and stay calm and rational, and do what gives you the best % of recovering in the long term --- hope that helps in some way --- as i say, in no way meant to be advice, just concern --- all the best



PS Sorry TH --- hadnt seen your post b4 i posted ----- would have waited b4 posting this one otherwise ------- what is that idiot on about !!!! Just another boofhead ---- will get as much respect as he deserves !!

 

[James Austin]

Holy cow.. You have said your account is $400k. That's nearly 1% of your account per point

Bloody Hell where is your stop loss?

120 minis, remember?.. thats $600 a point Let's say I'm rather stupidly aggressive. I am pretty confident of a move here.. I'll get out if S&P goes above 900 pretty confidently. Something around 920. So about 300-400 points. Yea i know. More than half my account gone. But I feel there is a reason for doing this. I don't normally go in this aggressively. Most I have had before this is 60 contracts.

am i the only one struggling to make sense of this trade??

disregard for risk managment DOES NOT WORK in the long run

sure you may make some big winners disregarding risk management, but in the end this habit of disregard ensures MAXIMUM MARKET ADVERSITY has the last say.


** ie, stated another way, the actual maths of this style of trading (when repeated) does not favour the trader

 

[Trembling Hand]

Further to my argument with Mr Random know it all.

here's my crappy days efforts on the SPI + My claimed Short + flip at 318 -3120. Not a great day been distracted by outside goings on but still its my day. No :bs: which is more than what I have had from 42S

Its become a bit of a tradition here to send Joe $500 bucks when you challenge someone and are proven wrong. I am sure that after you have told me that you are the great Local/Inst/Prop that you claim $500 will mean nothing to you.

 

[Aussiest]

For some reason I'm having this argument with this Dude via PM. As I have no idea why I've triggered such interest from him I am now posting it here

What the hell are you talking about. You fool.

Where have I constantly posted about my success.

I have openly said that I didn't get a gig at propex 3or more years ago.

I have also said that the reason i don't try to get another gig at propex is I would have to trade larger than my 3 to 5 lot scalps on the SPI and HSI. which would then require me to change my trading style just to make the same.

Where the hell did I say ANYWHERE I was a gun. Where have I ever claimed any amount of profitable trading without backing it up with a statement. You are a damn weird Person to come along and bang on about this rubbish. Why don't you just post here in the open and get to your point.

Cheers

TH is one of the most helpful people here

To the person that is knocking him, jealousy is a curse!!

 

[42S]

TH

Nothing whatsoever to do with your trading , you are just a muppet who likes the sound of your own voice a little too much .

I did not come here at all to challenge you , what I got was a load of ***it.

Happy days

 

[Trembling Hand]

TH

, you are just a muppet who likes the sound of your own voice a little too much .

Oh I have never claimed that is not the case. :

 

[prawn_86]

**puts mod hat on**

42s, if you are here to be abusive and abrasive you can leave now please. If you do not contribue meaningfully, then please do not contribute.

Further abusive/off-topic/pointless posts will be removed and you will be infracted.

Thanks

Prawn

 

[CapnBirdseye]

TH

Nothing whatsoever to do with your trading , you are just a muppet who likes the sound of your own voice a little too much .

I did not come here at all to challenge you , what I got was a load of ***it.

Happy days

Enough said

 

[sammy84]

am i the only one struggling to make sense of this trade??

disregard for risk managment DOES NOT WORK in the long run

I too have been wondering the same. Everyone here has been calling such a trade brave, but without responsible money management its reckless.

TH

Nothing whatsoever to do with your trading , you are just a muppet who likes the sound of your own voice a little too much .

Alot of us here has learnt from TH's post, so for us at least it would be good news if he likes the sound of his own voice.

 

[ivant]

Goodluck Ivan, I also hope it all works out for you (and for me! haha), as I admire the way you trade, completely different from the crowd and having strong beliefs in what you do. It takes a lot of courage to step away from the crowd, especially when things continue to go against you.


On a better note, it seems the SPI futures are waking up a bit, already down about 20-30pts from the 3883 finish at the end of today (where I thought it was ridiculously overbought considering the US futures barely budged all day)
So even if the US stays flat tonight, I think our market will come back to reality a bit (I hope)

What I'm really afraid of in a few days time, is the results of the "banking" stress tests. I just can't help feel that this is gonna give Wall Street another reason to rally one more time, and perhaps strongly. The last time Geinther released the new banking plan, even though almost every economist said it was crap, wall st. went up 7%!!

Haha well we shall find out. Those tests probably are not going to be that great. Oh well, we shall see about that one soon. I am actually waiting for those to come through.. Thanks for the kind words man!We are back near the highs again

My .

I have no idea what the future holds and am not making any judgements on any specific trades, but if we continue upwards like this, then this is a good example of the major pitfall of mean reversion trading.

viz - you're right most of the time, and that makes you feel good, but when you're wrong, you're taken to the cleaners and lose months, even years, of hard work.

It's an interesting contrast to the trend following modus operandi, where you feel bad pretty much all the time as you're constantly in drawdown, with fleeting moments of happiness as you reach equity peaks.

Yea i know, interesting little play on the psychology..

"Ive" --- u know my position on your position ----- No advice as such from me, but considering i have been where you are a couple of times , there are a squillion things you could/ or need to consider ----

a) what if it continues higher
b) am i in a position to ride that higher level out
c) what are my current options b4 it gets to that point
d) how much am i prepared to risk, and what are the best methods to limit that risk at this point in time
e) is it possible to turn the trade into an eventual winning trade by adding "time" to the equation ? ie cover it incrementally as it goes higher (so long as your bank is sufficient)

f) if you try e), what is the best way/levels to do that

g) if i do e and f and still lose, is the risk/possible saving worth the stress, etc etc

the list is a long one my friend (i reckon i could come up with another 20 points no probs), but only you can come to the conclusions that fit your situation ----

Dont sit idle ---- Come up with a plan of attack and follow it through --- try and make it a plan that minimises your losses ---- dont wait for your bank to sit at minus 50% and be sitting in hope --- losing 15% of your capital may end up being a blessing, or it may totally p#ss you off when the market does exactly what you expected, but a week later than you planned for (but who can be sure !!) hindsight may punish you or make you feel relieved, but hindsight is useless at the moment !!! ---- your current advantage is your bank it large ---- only risk what is bearable -----

my heart goes out to you my young M8 ---- try and stay calm and rational, and do what gives you the best % of recovering in the long term --- hope that helps in some way --- as i say, in no way meant to be advice, just concern --- all the best



PS Sorry TH --- hadnt seen your post b4 i posted ----- would have waited b4 posting this one otherwise ------- what is that idiot on about !!!! Just another boofhead ---- will get as much respect as he deserves !!

Hey Cartman, thanks for the advice! Much appreciated as always! I am definitely still rational and not angry! A little surprised, without doubt at the reaction today from the markets. Seems a lot like what you mentioned, about the squeeze! I am going to be ok up until 4000-50 but only time will tell how this plays out. I will be worried if S&P breaks 900 and I will be closing out most of my positions at those levels. I do have a plan of attack in my mind, and if this is to be my second losing trade for the financial year, so be it. I went in knowing the risks. Thanks again for those points (read them a few times )

am i the only one struggling to make sense of this trade??

disregard for risk managment DOES NOT WORK in the long run

sure you may make some big winners disregarding risk management, but in the end this habit of disregard ensures MAXIMUM MARKET ADVERSITY has the last say.


** ie, stated another way, the actual maths of this style of trading (when repeated) does not favour the trader

Who told you I risk this much on every trade? And furthermore, that I do not have any risk management in place?

 

[ivant]

For some reason I'm having this argument with this Dude via PM. As I have no idea why I've triggered such interest from him I am now posting it here

What the hell are you talking about. You fool.

Where have I constantly posted about my success.

I have openly said that I didn't get a gig at propex 3or more years ago.

I have also said that the reason i don't try to get another gig at propex is I would have to trade larger than my 3 to 5 lot scalps on the SPI and HSI. which would then require me to change my trading style just to make the same.

Where the hell did I say ANYWHERE I was a gun. Where have I ever claimed any amount of profitable trading without backing it up with a statement. You are a damn weird Person to come along and bang on about this rubbish. Why don't you just post here in the open and get to your point.

Cheers

Haha, well thats an interesting little debate you got yourself into TH. I find that funny though, who really cares. It is like measuring genitals on the golf course. Ultimately, if you are a good trader and making money, that is awesome! It is bloody frustrating when you get called for lying though I know too well from two weeks ago Hahaha. TH you are a great help to the site, and your posts are greatly respected. I actually took the time to read that post you sent me and it was a load of fun You had a great few weeks of trading! This is of course forgetting the other few years of awesome results, but you know....