SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[beamstas]

We'll gap up, fade at least half of it, rally and stall thru lunch, then fade arvo till Nikkei opens and fade post cash close!

We had a tiny gap up 1/1
We rallied a small bit then stalled at around 10:30 (early lunch?) 1/2 /1
We stopped swan diving at 12:00 ???
We pushed up rest of day 0/1
And then closed on a down -move 1/1

So that gives you 2.5 out of 4

 

[ivant]

We had a tiny gap up 1/1
We rallied a small bit then stalled at around 10:30 (early lunch?) 1/2 /1
We stopped swan diving at 12:00 ???
We pushed up rest of day 0/1
And then closed on a down -move 1/1

So that gives you 2.5 out of 4

Wouldn't this be a gap down? The SPI opened lower than it closed on Friday night...

Bobby, weren't you committed to the short side? Will be interesting how US goes tonight. I am still favouring a continued fall, but who knows? Regardless of the outcome of this set of trades, I don't think I'll be playing the long side for quite some time.

 

[MRC & Co]

Ivan, a gap is formed when the morning at 9:50am, opens above yesterdays high (a gap up) or below yesterdays low (a gap down). That is, above or below the high or low set between 9:50am and 4:30pm.

You've got a bit more breathing room again at the moment!

 

[ivant]

Ivan, a gap is formed when the morning at 9:50am, opens above yesterdays high (a gap up) or below yesterdays low (a gap down). That is, above or below the high or low set between 9:50am and 4:30pm.

You've got a bit more breathing room again at the moment!

Ah as in you calculate the day session? Because if you look at the night session, and the continuous chart, then essentially we opened some 20 points lower than we closed on the Friday night. Anyhow, technicalities.

Definitely some breathing space haha. Mostly happy with the way Crude is moving. Could theoretically be setting up for a move back towards the 5350 to 5050 levels. If it breaks 5050 then we are looking straight at 4800 and then maybe a retest of the lows, which i think is out of the question at the moment. An hour until open on the big board. lets see how they go. A lot depends on them

 

[Bobby]

Bobby, weren't you committed to the short side? Will be interesting how US goes tonight. I am still favouring a continued fall, but who knows? Regardless of the outcome of this set of trades, I don't think I'll be playing the long side for quite some time.

Ivan I never commit completely Had to jump ship on those longs when it broke through 3870 .
Just gone long again at 3868 .
I'm not sure what will happen ???

 

[skc]

Wouldn't this be a gap down? The SPI opened lower than it closed on Friday night...

Bobby, weren't you committed to the short side? Will be interesting how US goes tonight. I am still favouring a continued fall, but who knows? Regardless of the outcome of this set of trades, I don't think I'll be playing the long side for quite some time.

Ivan, noticed u use the IG cash contracts. You do know that they adjust the price and you need to pay the dividend cashflow when shares go ex-div. Major liabilities for you when the banks go ex-div next month.

Why not just short their futures contract. May be 1 point extra spread, but none of the other kafufus.

 

[ivant]

Ivan, noticed u use the IG cash contracts. You do know that they adjust the price and you need to pay the dividend cashflow when shares go ex-div. Major liabilities for you when the banks go ex-div next month.

Why not just short their futures contract. May be 1 point extra spread, but none of the other kafufus.

Hey skc! Yea I know about the divs! So painful. The interest they pay is nowhere near enough. I am hoping to close these positions out by end of this week at the low 3700s, or closer to 3720, and then wait for some confirmation. Thanks for the tip on the banks! I actually completely forgot about that. Once I am out of this trade I will be funding an IB account and then trading through them anyhow. In relation to that, for swing trading, is it worth trading the forwards with IG or should I trade it with IB as well? The fixed spread is nice during the day, but then the hidden costs are a pain in the a$$.

Once again, thanks so much for the bank divs tip!

Bobby, I am a little scared of playing the upside at the moment. The probabilities are definitely not suggesting a move more than another 200-300 points, and the downside could potentially be more than 1000 points from these levels. Although, I get the feeling our hold time is rather different.

 

[skyQuake]

Ivan, noticed u use the IG cash contracts. You do know that they adjust the price and you need to pay the dividend cashflow when shares go ex-div. Major liabilities for you when the banks go ex-div next month.

Why not just short their futures contract. May be 1 point extra spread, but none of the other kafufus.

Because IG prices it in and adjusts accordingly. I was trying something similar and hedging with futs, no good.

Fwiw, IG does its div stuff at 4:00 Exact. A 'Gap' thats visible on the cash charts, but not on the futs.

Cheers

 

[Bobby]

Bobby, I am a little scared of playing the upside at the moment. The probabilities are definitely not suggesting a move more than another 200-300 points, and the downside could potentially be more than 1000 points from these levels. Although, I get the feeling our hold time is rather different.

Ivan I understand your reasoning , if you get this one right you will be know as Fearless

I'm only going to play the directional game for a shorter time span with smaller size.
At the same time will keep doing my old back up strategy of hitting price movement with some control ~

 

[GumbyLearner]

I see red. Not the Aussie kind..Shiraz brewed in the hills around Adelaide.

More the Split Enz kind.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Ivan, noticed u use the IG cash contracts. You do know that they adjust the price and you need to pay the dividend cashflow when shares go ex-div. Major liabilities for you when the banks go ex-div next month.

or u receive it if you're long!

 

[cogs]

General opinion,,,,

Has the budget been factored in already?

Personally I think it maybe and are looking long.

 

[Trembling Hand]

General opinion,,,,

Has the budget been factored in already?

Personally I think it maybe and are looking long.

Do you think its gonna matter at all?

 

[Awesomandy]

I would think the budget has been factored in. We all know it's coming tonight, and we all know that it's not going to be pretty. The only thing to watch out for now is surprises. If, for example, the deficit is twice of what is expected, that may have an impact on the market. Otherwise, it's life as usual.

 

[Cartman]

Do you think its gonna matter at all?

stronger forever eh !! lol --- u trying to ramp up some cheap shorts TH

ps no guarantee of either price or quality cause the fabric often stretches out of shape ---- currently out of stock

 

[Trembling Hand]

Sunshine and happiness shining all over the futs at the moment. oil on a run.

:evilburn:

 

[Cartman]

Sunshine and happiness shining all over the futs at the moment. oil on a run.

:evilburn:

--- hot oil should never be touched !! -------- but my shorts are still out of stock ($39.40)

 

[MRC & Co]

Sunshine and happiness shining all over the futs at the moment. oil on a run.

:evilburn:

Yeh, DAX did the evil open squeeze, looked bearish as hell, then rallied hard once it got every long covered and short excited! Sly.

Cartman, I will take some shorts at 39.53 please with a 2 tick stop and flip!

 

[Cartman]

Y

Cartman, I will take some shorts at 39.53 please with a 2 tick stop and flip!

---- hi Mirc --- what is your take profit target on that flip

 

[MRC & Co]

---- hi Mirc --- what is your take profit target on that flip

I'll take 1 lot on every level from 39.90 to 40.00 flat please!