Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

All this big picture talk, glad I stick to my intraday trading. Trading the SPY tonight since I missed the last two days of the SPI, although it seems I didn't miss much today.
 
All this big picture talk, glad I stick to my intraday trading. Trading the SPY tonight since I missed the last two days of the SPI, although it seems I didn't miss much today.

Lol, but I am sure you still pay attention to the big picture, even if you don't trade it?
 
I always have a longer timeframe chart open, but I don't pay enough attention to it.

Lol I mean more analysing what is happening in the world around us. What could and should happen next, etc. Based on news, monetary and fiscal policies.. I am not a fundamental trader, but I enjoy analyzing this stuff :)
 
Lol I mean more analysing what is happening in the world around us. What could and should happen next, etc. Based on news, monetary and fiscal policies.. I am not a fundamental trader, but I enjoy analyzing this stuff :)

Be careful ivant, maybe one day you'll become an economist :eek:

;)
 
Lol I mean more analysing what is happening in the world around us. What could and should happen next, etc. Based on news, monetary and fiscal policies.. I am not a fundamental trader, but I enjoy analyzing this stuff :)

I read about it, but I don't use it for my trading, at least not consciously.
 
You getting ready to get out of your shorts Ivan? What do you reckon? 3650?

Martine

Going to see what happens when it tests 3750. Long way away so far. A lot can happen between now and US open, and even more post open. Most likely close out at 3750, wait for it to break 3750, re enter and wait until 3680. A break of 3680 will take us to around the 3500, then 3300 then 3100 then free fall. I am not saying it will do that by the way. But I still think a 3300 target is very likely. I'd expect a bit or a rally from 3740-50 though. Time will tell if I am right. If we don't rally from there, or show any support at 3680, that is going to be very very bearish.
 
Be careful ivant, maybe one day you'll become an economist :eek:

;)

Haha! I may end up with a minor in Economics in a year. Who knows. Although my enthusiasm alone will not make me an economist. Despite my respect for Keynes, my rejection of one of his theories really hurt my ability to get above 50 in macroeconomics. Further to that, we studied from the textbook written by Bernanke himself. While I think that over the last year he has done ok, there are so many things I would have done differently. I am a believer in free markets. I got my wish when Lehman collapsed. I was shorting then :p Haha.
 
my rejection of one of his theories really hurt my ability to get above 50 in macroeconomics

Are you saying you'll get poor marks if you don't subscribe to the standard school of thought?
 
Great work Ivan

Did you still hold all your shorts up until now? If you did, I am truly amazed at your 'pain' tolerance as the positions were like 200 points against you at one point. And congrats to you for sticking to your beliefs, even when the going got really tough (and when many ppl on this board were telling you to get out or even mocking you), as not many people can do what you did. I can definitely understand how you were able to turn 1.5k to 400k in a yr now. A half decent trading plan added with incredible psychological strength and self belief can do wonders.


As a side note, did you always have this type of psychological strength/emotional toughness, or was it through years of practice trading?
 
Going to see what happens when it tests 3750. Long way away so far. A lot can happen between now and US open, and even more post open. Most likely close out at 3750, wait for it to break 3750, re enter and wait until 3680. A break of 3680 will take us to around the 3500, then 3300 then 3100 then free fall. I am not saying it will do that by the way. But I still think a 3300 target is very likely. I'd expect a bit or a rally from 3740-50 though. Time will tell if I am right. If we don't rally from there, or show any support at 3680, that is going to be very very bearish.


welcome back to the "land of the living" Ivan (cryptonite ballz !! :D )

in 20 words or less tell us how you would approach this last trade differently next time !! ;)

all things being equal, that little scare could be what turns you from a smart ballzy trader to a 'slightly' more conservative "super trader"

cheers young M8 :)

ps please scale in over a wider range next time :eek: lol -----
 
Are you saying you'll get poor marks if you don't subscribe to the standard school of thought?

You better believe it! I got a low mark of 74 (considering i work full time in investing) for an investments subject for 2 reasons:

a) For the assignment we were asked to manage a portfolio of $100,000 for 3 months, and I didn't have the minimum 20% in stocks. I ended up making a return on stocks of 40% over 3 months based on the 20 stocks that they wanted you to choose. I had a holding period of about 3 weeks. My teacher said that in these tough conditions (2008) its impossible to make money, and so you need to explain to your clients why you lost money. I DONT WANT TO LOSE MONEY! Might as well not invest at all if you think you will lose money. I understand the whole, fund managers need to have on paper that they were in positions, so that they still have a job, and show they did something.

b) I am a big opponent of the EMH. Lecturers are proponents. I tried to refrain from writing against it on the exam, and give the facts, however the question was worded in such a way that I had to express my opinion. I don't know how to argue for EMH when I have seen such gains. It is like denying the holocaust. Sure maybe it didn't happen, but that is trying to prove a negative, and that is very difficult. Which is why disproving Bishop Berkeley's theories on existance was always so hard, because you are trying to prove a negative. Saying that EMH does take place, you are saying practically that you cannot out earn the market as you are part of it. That is saying that no one loses money in the market either.

So you do need to keep the theories. There are circumstances when teachers are open-minded, for example, my ex-girlfriend was doing Arts at Monash too, and she mostly studied the middle east, religions, wars etc. She was saying there was a Jewish lecturer and a Muslim tutor who were friends, and who taught the subject well. The lecturer was a little bias towards Israel, however the tutor, was open to both sides, and didn't mark you down if you argued against his views.
 
Dont even get me started on lecturers

One of mine insisted to me that the share price was directly related to the assets of the company & moved by the value of the companies assets!

I then asked for an explanation of the daily movements of share prices but wasn't graced with one :(

I was sure the market adjusted itself every time the secretary went out to buy milk and took some petty cash which adjusted the assets of the company :(:( Following from this advice i started shorting all companies 1 day before pay day each week as i thought for sure the share price would go down because of the cash coming out of the company

Ok im being sarcastic, but sometimes lecturers should actually think about what they Teach. I know they are academics and not teachers but come on!!


Another one last week; we were doing an assignment about a special offer by a company giving a $100 food voucher per year as an incentive to buy shares in it (like a dividend). The argument was that institutional investors wouldn't be happy about it.

I was told that one reason they might not like to take up such a large offer is because they wouldn't be able to sell the shares to another institution because the food vouchers would be useless to the institution. The lecture didn't believe me that they could simply sell them on the asx and that you don't have to find a buyer for your exact number of shares to sell them!


:eek:
 
will be coming soon in my not so great as others opinion :D.....

hope ya didnt follow anyones advice in locking in them losses at the top of this rally and followed ya own nose

hey i could be wrong but trhis brewing up like one of those perfect storm moments and we going to get some teary eyed traders shortly:D

well done ivant , dodgy trading methods but hey its the cash that is the result........
 
Lol, i think the dodgy part was the overtrading... I am out and long. Will get out in 50 points or so. then i'll go short 3850s lightly to 3680. Let's see how that goes... There was no liquidity!! No one was selling into the market, was so hard to get rid off all the contracts! But all good :D hahaha Thanks for your support people :D

In terms of psychological strength, I don't know what to say? I didn't think I was that psychologically strong.
 
Dont even get me started on lecturers

I imagine like most jobs that some a great and some are horrible, but it's ridiculous to have a class ruined because of a biased "my way or the highway" type teacher.

I know they are academics and not teachers but come on!

That's not an excuse. It sounds like they're failure is not only in teaching, but also the intelligence to be able to be objective and mark on the merit of discussion, rather than whether or not they agree with the conclusion.
 
Dont even get me started on lecturers

One of mine insisted to me that the share price was directly related to the assets of the company & moved by the value of the companies assets!

I then asked for an explanation of the daily movements of share prices but wasn't graced with one :(

I was sure the market adjusted itself every time the secretary went out to buy milk and took some petty cash which adjusted the assets of the company :(:( Following from this advice i started shorting all companies 1 day before pay day each week as i thought for sure the share price would go down because of the cash coming out of the company

Ok im being sarcastic, but sometimes lecturers should actually think about what they Teach. I know they are academics and not teachers but come on!!


Another one last week; we were doing an assignment about a special offer by a company giving a $100 food voucher per year as an incentive to buy shares in it (like a dividend). The argument was that institutional investors wouldn't be happy about it.

I was told that one reason they might not like to take up such a large offer is because they wouldn't be able to sell the shares to another institution because the food vouchers would be useless to the institution. The lecture didn't believe me that they could simply sell them on the asx and that you don't have to find a buyer for your exact number of shares to sell them!


:eek:

Haha wouldn't it be great if it was all that easy? i mean shorting companies everytime they buy milk?? hahaha. Do you know what a PhD in finance told me 2 years ago?

"Stocks are moved by the decisions of the board," he said, so I thought "OK decisions do impact the price"
So I asked, "how do you mean? I am talking about the daily fluctuations"
He answers to me "that's right the board decides these fluctuations..."

I **** you not that is what he said word for word. I don't know if it was his English and he meant that, but that was the funniest thing i'd ever heard. That is Uni. Where do you study Brad?
 
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