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SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

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Well I have recently became a bear! Sold a further 70% of my existing portfolio two days ago and am cashed up. Have yet to take a loss in fact i'm in the green. Will be pissed if it continue's to march upwards but just don't believe it sustainable. Might go another 200 points but really what is moving this market?
This is were I believe allot of newbies such as myself or mom and dad investors are going to get sucked in a shat upon once again because they are afriad of missing out.
I feel great to have a large chunk of cash on the sidelines. I will be looking for a retracement of 15 to 20% before I get excited.
I know most would suggest following the trend but I think we are going to return to some real volatility in the coming months.

Just my :2twocents

Best of luck

G
 
Gordon Gekko said:
I know most would suggest following the trend but I think we are going to return to some real volatility in the coming months.
Click to expand...

I like the sound of that! It does look to be building that way to me, over the nxt few months.

Friends of mine who are brokers, tell me clients are coming out of the woodworks again, with the good times such a close and vivid memory, just what is required to cause some aftershocks! But as you say, I can see us potentially putting on more points first, a close above 4000, a consolidation and a march towards 4400s could still be in store first.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Well I have recently became a bear! Sold a further 70% of my existing portfolio two days ago and am cashed up. Have yet to take a loss in fact i'm in the green. Will be pissed if it continue's to march upwards but just don't believe it sustainable. Might go another 200 points but really what is moving this market?
This is were I believe allot of newbies such as myself or mom and dad investors are going to get sucked in a shat upon once again because they are afriad of missing out.
I feel great to have a large chunk of cash on the sidelines. I will be looking for a retracement of 15 to 20% before I get excited.
I know most would suggest following the trend but I think we are going to return to some real volatility in the coming months.

Just my :2twocents

Best of luck

G
Click to expand...

I am cashed up also and i don't even feel bad about it. And i don't even feel bad about watching WPL rally up after i sold it! (okay, i do a bit, but lessons for next time).
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Well I have recently became a bear! Sold a further 70% of my existing portfolio two days ago and am cashed up. Have yet to take a loss in fact i'm in the green. Will be pissed if it continue's to march upwards but just don't believe it sustainable.
Click to expand...

Aussiest said:
I am cashed up also and i don't even feel bad about it. And i don't even feel bad about watching WPL rally up after i sold it! (okay, i do a bit, but lessons for next time).
Click to expand...

I wonder if you will be happy in cash if we get to 4500.

Not saying thats gonna happen but thats one of the drivers of this run. No one believes it. Everyone has sold thinking that yesterday is tomorrow.

Meanwhile some are just swinging like they do at every opportunity.

Oh and we haven't even had a short covering rally................. yet.
 
Forgot to ask for some thoughts on the following:

I hear allot of people saying there is some "big institutional buying recently"
Could it be that its very close to the end of the financial year and that they need to put the money somewhere or else there clients who are really starting to notice the fee's and wondering if they should fire there FA'a useless ass.
I mean if you get your year end statement and realize you have been placed in cash for safety, couldn't or wouldn't you just do it yourself?

Institutions could be buying to dress up there figures but will most likely dump them again on July1st.

Any thoughts,


G
 
Trembling Hand said:
I wonder if you will be happy in cash if we get to 4500.

Not saying thats gonna happen but thats one of the drivers of this run. No one believes it. Everyone has sold thinking that yesterday is tomorrow.

Meanwhile some are just swinging like they do at every opportunity.

Oh and we haven't even had a short covering rally................. yet.
Click to expand...



Yes I will be pissed but I'll still be sleeping on a very large pile pf money with my naked beatiful wife!!:D
 
And with the recent changes to margin lending where is the average jo going to get the free money that drove the market up levels in late 2007?
I need to see some real consoladation (months and months and months) as well as real improving economic conditions before I feel we will be ready for a new bull market.

The trick will to buy in at or near the bottom.

Best

G
 
alwaysLearning said:
What instrument were you trading? Also, what amount did you start with to build it into a million dollars and how long did it take?
Click to expand...

Small cap shares. Used a fundamental investment approach, no stop losses coz I was right. Wasn't going to sell till each share reached its projected target price based on the projects, timelines and potential cash flows. I 'invested' $50k over about 3 years.

Did you lose 90% off one trade or a series of trades?
Click to expand...

3 different companies. I had built large buy-and-hold (read: beg and pray) positions in each over time.

What was your psychological approach to the markets when you were getting close to the 1million dollar mark?
Click to expand...

I was right, the market was rewarding me. And I still knew I was right all the way to the bottom of each of those rides. But it doesn't matter if you think you're right. It only matters if enough other people also think the same idea is right.

Since then I've learnt to trade. I've learnt about position sizing and stop losses and taking what's on offer instead of sitting there stewing in falling equity while I thought the market was wrong and that eventually it would vindicate me. It never did.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Everyone has sold thinking that yesterday is tomorrow.
Click to expand...

lol, I might have to steal that one TH.

I also don't understand everyone being so keen to sell out and go to cash, I'm happy to just run trailing stops now and let the market tell me when this rally is over.

I'm yet to see any selling into strength but am still seeing buying into weakness.

Gordon Gekko said:
Yes I will be pissed but I'll still be sleeping on a very large pile pf money with my naked beatiful wife!!:D
Click to expand...

That's okay but when this rally does end I'll be on an even larger pile of money with someone elses beatiful naked wife;):p:.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
And with the recent changes to margin lending where is the average jo going to get the free money that drove the market up levels in late 2007?
I need to see some real consoladation (months and months and months) as well as real improving economic conditions before I feel we will be ready for a new bull market.
Click to expand...

:confused:

Who ever said this was a bull market?

Who ever said that what avg joe does makes a diff to the next couple hundred points? Frankly the reason I've been so bullish is cuz avg joe hasn't. As soon as they are happy, I'm fliipin.
 
No idea why everyone is moving to cash
You are acting like you know what the market is going to do!
But you don't!
 
beamstas said:
No idea why everyone is moving to cash
You are acting like you know what the market is going to do!
But you don't!
Click to expand...

Funny brad. Two weeks ago you said something to the effect that TA "works" to MichaelD.

now ya saying? nothing "works" just swing?
 
MS+Tradesim said:
Small cap shares. Used a fundamental investment approach, no stop losses coz I was right. Wasn't going to sell till each share reached its projected target price based on the projects, timelines and potential cash flows. I 'invested' $50k over about 3 years.



3 different companies. I had built large buy-and-hold (read: beg and pray) positions in each over time.



I was right, the market was rewarding me. And I still knew I was right all the way to the bottom of each of those rides. But it doesn't matter if you think you're right. It only matters if enough other people also think the same idea is right.

Since then I've learnt to trade. I've learnt about position sizing and stop losses and taking what's on offer instead of sitting there stewing in falling equity while I thought the market was wrong and that eventually it would vindicate me. It never did.
Click to expand...

Very interesting and insightful. Thanks for the response :)
 
Trembling Hand said:
:confused:

Who ever said this was a bull market?

Who ever said that what avg joe does makes a diff to the next couple hundred points? Frankly the reason I've been so bullish is cuz avg joe hasn't. As soon as they are happy, I'm fliipin.
Click to expand...

Well I guess what i was trying to say is a couple of years ago (06,07) it seemed like we were moving a thousand points every couple of months or so. People taking out money against there houses and then also gearing into a portfolio. I think that people will be a little bit more conservative going forward, so I can't see a rally move up this quick without a pull back

It will most likely move higher from here sure based on shat, but then the reality will set in and it will move lower and then most likely sideways.

And I would disagree TH I think this market is being largly moved on fear from average investors scared of missing the bottom. But what do I know!!

Hope we all make some money on this forum at least!!!

Best of luck

G
 
Trembling Hand said:
Funny brad. Two weeks ago you said something to the effect that TA "works" to MichaelD.

now ya saying? nothing "works" just swing?
Click to expand...

Nah i actually trade fundamentals :) (just kidding)


(I really have to start wording my sentances correctly.. hard to get a point across over the internet becasue i often type something and don't think that someone else has to interpret my ramblings)

Feel free to ignore me

I guess what im saying is (without leaving half of my statement out leaving a "loaded" statement as i quite often do)

T/A Works, for me.
It gives me a right point, a wrong point, it makes me comfortable in the trade. When talking about support/resistance or whatever i was talking about, it does work (in my opinion). I believe support and resistance to be valid technical analysis indicators that do help me to determine whether i want to buy or stand aside. There are many others that can help me stack the deck.

But when the price is approaching the support and resistance, what's to say it's going to smash through it, or simarly to bounce off it and re-test at a later date. No-one knows.

It's hard to explain what goes through my head without contradicting myself

One day i'll get it into words. I get the feeling im wearing off a little thin on you T/H, my apologies.

Cheers
Brad
 

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