SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[skc]

Lol, i think the dodgy part was the overtrading... I am out and long. Will get out in 50 points or so. then i'll go short 3850s lightly to 3680. Let's see how that goes... There was no liquidity!! No one was selling into the market, was so hard to get rid off all the contracts! But all good hahaha Thanks for your support people

In terms of psychological strength, I don't know what to say? I didn't think I was that psychologically strong.

For the benefit of the crowd. What's your average exit price?

 

[ivant]

For the benefit of the crowd. What's your average exit price?

7950.5-7954.5 on the IG pricing scheme, not sure about average, because I was trying to buy in a market that wasn't liquid. 5 minis weren't going through.. Average entry price is 3750.65 (according to my calculator). Let's see how this all goes...

 

[Aussiest]

Ivan, you didn't think to wait until around 3650 to go long? Even 3550-3650...

 

[ivant]

Ivan, you didn't think to wait until around 3650 to go long? Even 3550-3650...

Not at the moment. I did not fully commit, and am anticipating that we go to 3660-80ish, however the likelihood is very slim. We are massively oversold on the 4 hour. Too far too fast. I'd think for us to break the current channel (about 10 points lower is support) we need to break down at a higher level, ie fail to test 3850/3950/4000

 

[beamstas]

Ivan getting smashed again!

 

[nunthewiser]

Ivan getting smashed again!

at least he honest about his trading , unlike others

 

[MRC & Co]

Ivan getting smashed again!

How? His cut and reverse sounds logical to me.

We are way over-extended and the SPI spread V the S&P has blown right out, we are far too low.

 

[Cartman]

kind of expect the US pre open to drag us down a little b4 we move up much ---- 3700 looks a good round figure if u could get it by midnight

 

[skc]

kind of expect the US pre open to drag us down a little b4 we move up much ---- 3700 looks a good round figure if u could get it by midnight

I sense the cash is dragging down the SPI at the moment. I am half guessing the SPI will jump back toward 3750 between 4 and 4:30.

 

[Aussiest]

kind of expect the US pre open to drag us down a little b4 we move up much ---- 3700 looks a good round figure if u could get it by midnight

Yeah, one more day in the red, one undecided. 3650 my aim! Even 3550. But, each to their own.

 

[cutz]

That will be the icing on the cake Aussiest if you turn out to be correct.

EDIT>> And what a lovely finish on the cash index, ( i assume that's what you futures guys call the XJO )

 

[ivant]

Ivan getting smashed again!

Haha I am only 10 points down... Most I have been is 20 since I entered? Getting smashed is 300 for me

at least he honest about his trading , unlike others

Haha, do you know what I find funny, why would one lie about their trading in a forum? I just really don't see the point. By the way, still got your shorts in BHP? Good day today for them

How? His cut and reverse sounds logical to me.

We are way over-extended and the SPI spread V the S&P has blown right out, we are far too low.

Yea that was pretty much my logic behind the trade. We are oversold on many short-term timeframes. In particular 1,2,and 4 hour charts. The 1,2,3 and 4 hour charts are all signalling a short-term rebound, or at least a halt in the move. We have went too far too fast, especially versus the S&P (maybe budget blues).

kind of expect the US pre open to drag us down a little b4 we move up much ---- 3700 looks a good round figure if u could get it by midnight

I think anything is possible. What worried me a little last night is some very unexpected resistance at 8280-300. Was odd. I get the feeling they might be in for an upmove. The selling just isn't what I expected originally. The bulls are still very strong. And foolish.

Yeah, one more day in the red, one undecided. 3650 my aim! Even 3550. But, each to their own.

I think that those targets will be met soon with no doubt. I'd like to see some technical pain at the moment. They are at a crucial trendline at the moment, and they have failed to break it on 6 occasions, and it dates back to late March. I think only once that is breached significantly (it has whipsawed once) we can head lower. Then there will be a tonne of resistance at the 3650 level. If we go there in one hit, that's 350 points in one straight line. I just dont see the panic at the moment around the line. Around 2pm it went slightly under, and it was literally pushed on no volume. That was odd. You want to see a high volume break, not some small time manipulation. It just doesn't seem right at the moment. A rebound to 3850 is likely, and that would create a head and shoulders with 4000 being the top. Makes sense to me.

 

[Aussiest]

A rebound to 3850 is likely, and that would create a head and shoulders with 4000 being the top. Makes sense to me.

Yes, i think a top of around 4000 would be possible. Maybe 30-40 points above. But, i disagree with you re- the 3650 thing. I think we may get there in the next two days. If we don't, all bets are off

Let's wait and see, time will tell!!

 

[Cartman]

I think that those targets will be met soon with no doubt. I'd like to see some technical pain at the moment. They are at a crucial trendline at the moment, and they have failed to break it on 6 occasions, and it dates back to late March. I think only once that is breached significantly (it has whipsawed once) we can head lower. Then there will be a tonne of resistance at the 3650 level. If we go there in one hit, that's 350 points in one straight line. I just dont see the panic at the moment around the line. Around 2pm it went slightly under, and it was literally pushed on no volume. That was odd. You want to see a high volume break, not some small time manipulation. It just doesn't seem right at the moment. A rebound to 3850 is likely, and that would create a head and shoulders with 4000 being the top. Makes sense to me.

agree Ivan ---- the current pattern is a bit like a recent one only with extended range/momentum ----- thats the iffy bit atm ----

if it follows that pattern we might end up with something like below --- interesting that we agree on the 3850

if it breaks and closes under 3650, that would change the whole vibe --- surprised if it does that but anything is possible eh

 

[beamstas]

I actually had the same thoughts as cartman (maybe its time i leave? )

If we move through 3660 then it will be our first lower low since the bottom

We have managed to smash through the trendline moving up, as well as some minor support

Im bearish!

Cheers
Brad

 

[Cartman]

I actually had the same thoughts as cartman

thats how it starts Brad !! ---- then u get the rash ----
then u start thinking yr an animated cartoon character ---
get help b4 its too late :

 

[MRC & Co]

Yea that was pretty much my logic behind the trade. We are oversold on many short-term timeframes. In particular 1,2,and 4 hour charts. The 1,2,3 and 4 hour charts are all signalling a short-term rebound, or at least a halt in the move. We have went too far too fast, especially versus the S&P (maybe budget blues).

Yeh, though I would think it would be safer to put on a ratio spread, at least have some short S&P. But each to their own.

 

[nunthewiser]

By the way, still got your shorts in BHP? Good day today for them



.

yeah m8 , let one parcel go riding rest ,posted strategy in bhp thread

 

[CanOz]

Is this for real? Options expiry?

 

[-Swig-]

Is this for real? Options expiry?

Think you got a bad tick there, sonny Jim.