Silver

[greggles]

The 2011 spike was something of an anomaly, but it still sets a precedent. The 1980 spike to around the same price in 1980 (hundreds of dollars if we adjust for inflation) was an extreme anomaly, but two hits at the same level still set a precedent with some meaning. Obviously these historical prices are psychological only, not fundamental, so it doesn't really matter why they happened, just that they did. It may take a very long time to see that price again, but it could also happen fairly soon. Silver's price movements have always been peculiar, sort of following gold, not not exactly. Fairly following the timing of gold's ups and downs, but with different amplitudes. I see gold as a sure thing going up over the next few years. Silver I think will probably go up more, but I'm a lot less certain.

it's amazing how the 2011 price spike has coloured people's view of silver. If you remove that spike (and reversal) from September 2010 until June 2013 and imagine the spot price moving sideways and slightly up for that 21 month period, silver looks like a great long term investment, rising from US$4.20 in late 2002 to US$32 this year.

But so many people got burned in the 2011 spike that there is this strong emotional reaction to silver by a lot of people. Some truly despise it. Sure, if you invested heavily in April 2011, silver was unquestionably a bad investment... but if you invested in 1999 it's been a great investment.

 

[qldfrog]

Of interest for both silver and gold

Sizzling WhatsApp texts blow the lid off ASIC investigation into ABC Bullion - Michael West

ASIC faces questions about its investigation into ABC Bullion amid company employees being critical of the company's storage practices.

michaelwest.com.au

 

[mullokintyre]

Of interest for both silver and gold

Sizzling WhatsApp texts blow the lid off ASIC investigation into ABC Bullion - Michael West

ASIC faces questions about its investigation into ABC Bullion amid company employees being critical of the company's storage practices.

michaelwest.com.au

I admire John Adams for his persistence, but so far he is 0 for 2 in fights with the establishment.
After finding that there was nothing to see here in the ABC Bullion case pushed by Adams, he has also struck out in his attempts to get the vice chair of ASIC investigated over insider trading leaks.



Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Meanwhile, Silver put on an extra $1.19 last night for a 4% gain.
A lot of it was due to USD weakness, but hey , it won't stop the market pushing up the few silver stocks we have.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Meanwhile, Silver put on an extra $1.19 last night for a 4% gain.
A lot of it was due to USD weakness, but hey , it won't stop the market pushing up the few silver stocks we have.
Mick

And now, it has shot through the #30 USD mark, question now is, can it close above the USD30 mark?
If so, the next target is 31.26 from back in July.
Mick

 

[greggles]

And now, it has shot through the #30 USD mark, question now is, can it close above the USD30 mark?
If so, the next target is 31.26 from back in July.
Mick

The test will be tonight. It is currently sitting quite comfortably above US$30 but the price action tonight will set the tone for the short term. If the bulls take control it could get above US$31 quickly but it could just as easily slide back to US$29ish if the bears run the show this evening.

My gut feeling is tonight will be bullish. A lot of weak hands have been shaken out in the last six weeks and sentiment towards previous metals is turning bullish again. With an interest rate cut on the way in the US and a bloated stock market looking riskier by the day precious metals looks like a good place to park some capital right now. Geopolitical tensions remains high with the US and Britain giving Ukraine the green light to strike Russian territory with western long range weapons.

 

[Sean K]

Obviously broke on Friday, might be catching up on gold.

Only worry is that it's slightly disconnected from the PM narrative because of it's industrial use. But, not absolutely sure of that.

 

[mullokintyre]

Silver still going up, just a tad below 31.
And yet, my silver shares have been at best wallowing, and in the case of SVL, has been sold down 11%
Some 12 million shares changed hands today,
Are the punters expecting the big boys at the commercial banks m and the PPT to com in over night in the us market and drive it down again?
MKR, down 6%, SS1 in tarding Halt, ARD sitting right where it started.
At least Adriatic is up a modest 3%.
Not sure how to read this, but am erring on the side of caution and doing nothing.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Silver still going up, just a tad below 31.
And yet, my silver shares have been at best wallowing, and in the case of SVL, has been sold down 11%
Some 12 million shares changed hands today,
Are the punters expecting the big boys at the commercial banks m and the PPT to com in over night in the us market and drive it down again?
MKR, down 6%, SS1 in tarding Halt, ARD sitting right where it started.
At least Adriatic is up a modest 3%.
Not sure how to read this, but am erring on the side of caution and doing nothing.
Mick

Back over 31 today.
Silver keeps making higher highs and lower lows in each transition, something that I kinda like.
Really have enough invested in Silver currently, so have resisted buying anything, but that resistance may crumble if I see a disparity between silver price and some stocks.
Holding on to the SVL stuff as at some stage the punters will forget the power line issues.
Tempted to buy more MKR and adriatic as they are both actually mining.
So many decisions, so many opportunities, but not enough spare cash.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Back over 31 today.
Silver keeps making higher highs and lower lows in each transition, something that I kinda like.
Really have enough invested in Silver currently, so have resisted buying anything, but that resistance may crumble if I see a disparity between silver price and some stocks.
Holding on to the SVL stuff as at some stage the punters will forget the power line issues.
Tempted to buy more MKR and adriatic as they are both actually mining.
So many decisions, so many opportunities, but not enough spare cash.
Mick

Was always going to follow gold at some point. Still lagging.

This break up still looks OK.

 

[Sean K]

Silver is struggling around the $31.50 level.

Break up from downward trend since May still intact until $30 broken to downside, IMO.

Then, we probably need the extension of the bottom blue diagonal support line for support or at worse $28 to hold or it's back to downtrend.

 

[Sean K]

Silver is struggling around the $31.50 level.

Break up from downward trend since May still intact until $30 broken to downside, IMO.

Then, we probably need the extension of the bottom blue diagonal support line for support or at worse $28 to hold or it's back to downtrend.

View attachment 184703

Perhaps the risk is to the upside. I'm changing the red resistance line to blue, for now.



Silver shares doing well. 4 year highs.

5 year weekly.



6 month daily.

 

[mullokintyre]

Punched through $32.
Should be a good day fir silver shares.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Support at 31-31.30 held ok.

Still struggling at this level but must be building up some nice energy for when it eventually pushes through, or when JPM have accumulated enough for the Chinese and Indians.

 

[Sdajii]

Support at 31-31.30 held ok.

Still struggling at this level but must be building up some nice energy for when it eventually pushes through, or when JPM have accumulated enough for the Chinese and Indians.

View attachment 185366

I'm not sure 'struggling' is the way I'd describe the situation given we hit a 10 year high last week and are still sitting just below that level.

We only broke out in April, this is a precious metal not a small cap which just announced a company-making discovery. We're sitting around a resistance level, once it's broken we should go for another rerate. All the signs for that happening are there, it could happen next week or it might take a few more months, but we shouldn't expect it to happen immediately, even if it's pretty clearly going to happen.

 

[greggles]

Support at 31-31.30 held ok.

Still struggling at this level but must be building up some nice energy for when it eventually pushes through, or when JPM have accumulated enough for the Chinese and Indians.

View attachment 185366

Silver looks ready to break out above the resistance level you have drawn on that chart. All the ingredients are there: supply deficit, increasing geopolitical instability, widespread social unrest, and fiat currencies being debased on an unprecedented basis.

The capital rotation into hard assets will continue and precious metals will benefit from this. High inflation will be a periodic problem as governments borrow more money and create more debt and increase the money supply.

 

[Sdajii]

Silver looks ready to break out above the resistance level you have drawn on that chart. All the ingredients are there: supply deficit, increasing geopolitical instability, widespread social unrest, and fiat currencies being debased on an unprecedented basis.

The capital rotation into hard assets will continue and precious metals will benefit from this. High inflation will be a periodic problem as governments borrow more money and create more debt and increase the money supply.

Not that it lasted, but a few hours after my last post we saw silver hit a new 10 year high.

Definitely, all the 'ingredients' as you put it, for a breakout are there. If nothing else (and of course, there's plenty else, you listed some of it), just the fact that silver follows gold, silver is currently about where it was in May, and gold has been on a big rally since May - silver is due for a rerate. You could probably do well pair trading gold and silver if you were careful and judicious about it, and right now you'd probably be looking at weighting more heavily in silver (although gold is still great, I'm holding both).

Gold has been consistently smashing out new all time highs for the last few months. Silver may even do the same before the end of the year.

 

[Sean K]

Silver looks ready to break out above the resistance level you have drawn on that chart. All the ingredients are there: supply deficit, increasing geopolitical instability, widespread social unrest, and fiat currencies being debased on an unprecedented basis.

The capital rotation into hard assets will continue and precious metals will benefit from this. High inflation will be a periodic problem as governments borrow more money and create more debt and increase the money supply.

It's close. Looks very likely. It's now hit this point 13 times in the past 5 months but retraced each time. Looking for a clean break through on the daily chart.

Having said that, I think we called a break-up on silver in April in the ETPMAG thread.

 

[Sean K]

Looking for a clean break through on the daily chart.

The weekly chart looks like it's through. Very nice.

 

[finicky]

Silver will have its day I believe but it'll always disappoint you following it with any close interest. I bought into the theme over 20 years ago as I have harped on about. It's only cost me money so far. Silver stocks a farce. Silver metal retraces its price gains. Forced sales, as well as storage fees and transportation costs have attritioned any residual gain. Pointless, gold was the way to go.