Silver

[divs4ever]

Is Silver Russia’s Secret Economic Weapon?



now China has a history of commodity stock-piling

so is China already stock-piling ( silver ) or will it begin soon ?

 

[greggles]

Is Silver Russia’s Secret Economic Weapon?

Russia stockpiling silver: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...or-precious-metals-strategy-shift/ar-AA1rGnJs

Silver is generally considered an industrial metal, not a reserve asset. Though, to be fair, Russia is largely cut off from the international financial system so their increased reliance on precious metals is hardly surprising. But in an environment where fiat currencies are declining in value, silver and even platinum could become de facto reserve assets at some point in the future.

Another thought: If Russia is gong to lose this war there will come a point when they know they are going to lose. An inevitable result of a Russian loss would be a Ruble crash that would take a long time to recover. It would not surprise me to see Russia using precious metals as a hedge against the decline of their own currency. If an ounce of silver costs 3000 Rubles today but will cost 4000 rubles six months from now, I would be buying today.

 

[Sdajii]

Russia stockpiling silver: https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/precious-metals/article-823167

Silver is generally considered an industrial metal, not a reserve asset. Though, to be fair, Russia is largely cut off from the international financial system so their increased reliance on precious metals is hardly surprising. But in an environment where fiat currencies are declining in value, silver and even platinum could become de facto reserve assets at some point in the future.

If Russia is gong to lose this war there will come a point when they know they are going to lose. An inevitable result of a Russian loss would be a Ruble crash that would take a long time to recover. It would not surprise me to see Russia using precious metals as a hedge against the decline of their own currency. If an ounce of silver costs 3000 Rubles today but will cost 4000 rubles six months from now, I would be buying today.

This might make sense if you're a Russian to whom rubles are very important, but does it necessarily hold true for anyone else?

I'm currently in Laos, the local currency is the kip. The value of an ounce of silver in Lao kip is about 6x higher than it was when I was here a few years ago. It has tripled since I was here just before the covid scare. Was that particularly relevant to you as an Australian? Or to a typical Russian? Absolutely, if you were Lao and put all your wealth into silver a few years ago you'd have done extremely well for yourself, but how relevant is that to anyone who isn't Lao?

I'd certainly rather have my money in silver than rubles, but is any non Russian thinking about taking a long term position in rubles? Sure, Russia has a larger economy than Laos', but is it that big?

 

[greggles]

This might make sense if you're a Russian to whom rubles are very important, but does it necessarily hold true for anyone else?

I'm currently in Laos, the local currency is the kip. The value of an ounce of silver in Lao kip is about 6x higher than it was when I was here a few years ago. It has tripled since I was here just before the covid scare. Was that particularly relevant to you as an Australian? Or to a typical Russian? Absolutely, if you were Lao and put all your wealth into silver a few years ago you'd have done extremely well for yourself, but how relevant is that to anyone who isn't Lao?

I'd certainly rather have my money in silver than rubles, but is any non Russian thinking about taking a long term position in rubles? Sure, Russia has a larger economy than Laos', but is it that big?

One of the reasons I think the silver market is finally heating up is because of its use as a hedge against all fiat currencies. It took high inflation for the penny to drop with a lot of people.

I take the view that the genie is already out of the bottle with COVID making governments realise that they can spend their way out of a crisis by increasing the money supply and borrowing. Now every government is going to do it more often because it's politically expedient to do so. Let the next government worry about it. It's a game of musical currency chairs. One government at some point in the future isn't going to be able to find a chair when the market decides it has lost confidence in the currency.

Russia will know what it can and can't achieve in Ukraine. If it dawns on them they have lost, stockpiling as many liquid hard assets they can makes sense. A loss in Ukraine would send the Ruble spiraling down and spending Rubles on gold and silver before that happens is a pretty good bet.

 

[divs4ever]

One of the reasons I think the silver market is finally heating up is because of its use as a hedge against all fiat currencies. It took high inflation for the penny to drop with a lot of people.

I take the view that the genie is already out of the bottle with COVID making governments realise that they can spend their way out of a crisis by increasing the money supply and borrowing. Now every government is going to do it more often because it's politically expedient to do so. Let the next government worry about it. It's a game of musical currency chairs. One government at some point in the future isn't going to be able to find a chair when the market decides it has lost confidence in the currency.

Russia will know what it can and can't achieve in Ukraine. If it dawns on them they have lost, stockpiling as many liquid hard assets they can makes sense. A loss in Ukraine would send the Ruble spiraling down and spending Rubles on gold and silver before that happens is a pretty good bet.

well Russia ( and Iran ) knows what assets are worth kept in foreign banks ( SFA on a bad day ) so anything useful will be better as a store of assets

 

[divs4ever]

what WILL be important is silver will be harder to buy on 'the free markets ' in a world of rising production costs , rising demand

 

[Sdajii]

One of the reasons I think the silver market is finally heating up is because of its use as a hedge against all fiat currencies. It took high inflation for the penny to drop with a lot of people.

I take the view that the genie is already out of the bottle with COVID making governments realise that they can spend their way out of a crisis by increasing the money supply and borrowing. Now every government is going to do it more often because it's politically expedient to do so. Let the next government worry about it. It's a game of musical currency chairs. One government at some point in the future isn't going to be able to find a chair when the market decides it has lost confidence in the currency.

Russia will know what it can and can't achieve in Ukraine. If it dawns on them they have lost, stockpiling as many liquid hard assets they can makes sense. A loss in Ukraine would send the Ruble spiraling down and spending Rubles on gold and silver before that happens is a pretty good bet.

I totally agree that the insane covid policies have contributed to inflation in many countries, and governments are largely not being held accountable. Most Australians I know, even some of the apparently intelligent ones with university educations etc, don't join the dots and can't understand when I do it for them. The amount of money they have hasn't gone down, the government gave them free money, so the fact that their money isn't worth as much just seems like an unfortunate thing no particular entity is responsible for. If the buying power of the dollar had remained the same but people lost half their money because the government taxed or otherwise appropriated it, everyone would be screaming blue murder, there would be unprecedented outcry and unrest, but the exact same thing is not causing anyone to kick up a fuss, because people are typically that financially illiterate.

I'm not sure how relevant Russia specifically is, but definitely, I'm bullish on silver, and widespread inflation is part of it.

You say Russia losing the war will cause an increase in silver prices. If I play devil's advocate and assume you're right, what would you say a Russian victory would do to silver prices?

 

[divs4ever]

I totally agree that the insane covid policies have contributed to inflation in many countries, and governments are largely not being held accountable. Most Australians I know, even some of the apparently intelligent ones with university educations etc, don't join the dots and can't understand when I do it for them. The amount of money they have hasn't gone down, the government gave them free money, so the fact that their money isn't worth as much just seems like an unfortunate thing no particular entity is responsible for. If the buying power of the dollar had remained the same but people lost half their money because the government taxed or otherwise appropriated it, everyone would be screaming blue murder, there would be unprecedented outcry and unrest, but the exact same thing is not causing anyone to kick up a fuss, because people are typically that financially illiterate.

I'm not sure how relevant Russia specifically is, but definitely, I'm bullish on silver, and widespread inflation is part of it.

You say Russia losing the war will cause an increase in silver prices. If I play devil's advocate and assume you're right, what would you say a Russian victory would do to silver prices?

what if Russia just stops selling to 'unfriendly nations; , China , India , and Iran could soak up almost everything Russia exports if they had a mind to ( back to the 'Iron Curtain' days )

that would be gold , silver , nickel , oil , coal , iron/steel , wheat , uranium , and a few other hard to get commodities

( remember the West is trying to extract stuff in an 'eco-friendly manner ' )

 

[finicky]

I think silver is a good example of the adage, 'the market can be irrational longer than most investors can stay solvent'.
I feel that geopolitics like Russia-Ukraine is the ephemeral stuff. The case for silver remains its relationship to gold, its history as money, the reputed physical 'structural' deficit, the perversion of the market with the dominance of paper futures contracts, all the industrial uses and all the other old hashed over arguments. They haven't meant a damned thing investment wise for over 20 f'g years. Good luck following this bs week by week. I retain a diminished but still significant investment in silver and if it were in front of me here I'd look at it with as much interest as my kitchen sink.
P.S you have my permission to talk about it if you must

 

[outback]

I think silver is a good example of the adage, 'the market can be irrational longer than most investors can stay solvent'.
I feel that geopolitics like Russia-Ukraine is the ephemeral stuff. The case for silver remains its relationship to gold, its history as money, the reputed physical 'structural' deficit, the perversion of the market with the dominance of paper futures contracts, all the industrial uses and all the other old hashed over arguments. They haven't meant a damned thing investment wise for over 20 f'g years. Good luck following this bs week by week. I retain a diminished but still significant investment in silver and if it were in front of me here I'd look at it with as much interest as my kitchen sink.
P.S you have my permission to talk about it if you must

I must admit I don't feel compelled to talk about your kitchen sink.

 

[Sean K]

USD Silver, ETPMAG, SLV and Wykoff's Dec Silver all pausing around this resistance zone waiting for a break up on the daily. The weekly USD Silver chart looks to have broken up, but it keeps failing on the daily - 13 x last 5 months now. Momentum still clearly up, short and medium term. Healthy consolidation so far. Fundamentals all seem to be pointing higher and silver is still lagging gold.

 

[Sdajii]

USD Silver, ETPMAG, SLV and Wykoff's Dec Silver all pausing around this resistance zone waiting for a break up on the daily. The weekly USD Silver chart looks to have broken up, but it keeps failing on the daily - 13 x last 5 months now. Momentum still clearly up, short and medium term. Healthy consolidation so far. Fundamentals all seem to be pointing higher and silver is still lagging gold.

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The way I see this is silver follows gold, it's clearly 'wanting/trying' to break resistance, gold is presumably going to keep going up, silver is seen as a precious metal/store of wealth, I really can't see silver crashing in the near future, everyone is watching it, waiting for it to break resistance/wondering if it will, so when it does, it should run.

Seems like a pretty simple setup to me. Does anyone think silver is likely to fail to break resistance and seriously crash? It seems pretty clear which way it's going to go.

 

[Sean K]

Making another run at $32.20 ish. Established a good base and built up some energy. Probabilities are it runs well once through this zone.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I think silver is a good example of the adage, 'the market can be irrational longer than most investors can stay solvent'.
I feel that geopolitics like Russia-Ukraine is the ephemeral stuff. The case for silver remains its relationship to gold, its history as money, the reputed physical 'structural' deficit, the perversion of the market with the dominance of paper futures contracts, all the industrial uses and all the other old hashed over arguments. They haven't meant a damned thing investment wise for over 20 f'g years. Good luck following this bs week by week. I retain a diminished but still significant investment in silver and if it were in front of me here I'd look at it with as much interest as my kitchen sink.
P.S you have my permission to talk about it if you must

Haha. I was about to post asking what members feel are the predominant factors affecting Silver and also what is "the vibe" in holding silver. I've been following your and @Sean K 's and @greggles posting on Silver and your post gave me some answers.

Chartwise it looks ready to break up. Would you feel differently @finicky and others if it pushed up to $USD 40 per oz or would you get out? That is take profits and be happy with that or would it be a longer term hold? I'm looking at ETPMAG as a vehicle for Silver.

gg

 

[finicky]

@Garpal Gumnut, Silver . . !?
I think of Maynard G Krebs jerking when Mr Gillis said the word, "work"

 

[Sean K]

The Uber drivers will be talking to you about silver soon.




The panelists noted that the silver market is expected to experience a significant supply surplus this year, and with demand consistently outstripping supply, this trend could continue for the foreseeable future.

According to the Silver Institute’s annual silver survey, the market is expected to face a deficit of 215.3 million ounces, the second-largest shortfall in more than two decades. Total global silver demand is projected to rise to 1.219 billion ounces, a 2% increase from last year.

Mitchell Krebs, CEO of Coeur Mining, said the silver market has undergone a complete transformation, as silver has become a critical industrial metal. He noted that the global economy’s electrification will require significantly more silver.

“I have never seen a better outlook for silver. It’s an extremely exciting time to be in the silver market,” said Krebs.

Matt Watson, Founder and President of Precious Metals Commodity Management, emphasized that investors should not underestimate silver's industrial uses as technology and the global economy continue to evolve.

“The outlook for growth in electronics is phenomenal. It’s the do-it-all metal on the Periodic Table,” he said. “I don’t see any fundamental downside to silver.”

 

[Sean K]

Anyone know what's going on here?

I thought it was setting up for a very bearish H&S, but it's going north.

 

[peter2]

Most likely an increase in demand due to today's news that China will stimulate their flagging economy. Silver has gone up more than gold. Copper and oil prices have risen also. It remains to be seen if there's any follow through and that China will do something instead of talking about it. China seems to be firing a few shots across Trump's bow.

Reports of China buying gold again. Commodity bulls are pawing the ground once more.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Most likely an increase in demand due to today's news that China will stimulate their flagging economy. Silver has gone up more than gold. Copper and oil prices have risen also. It remains to be seen if there's any follow through and that China will do something instead of talking about it. China seems to be firing a few shots across Trump's bow.

Reports of China buying gold again. Commodity bulls are pawing the ground once more.

Printing money is the easy part, what happens later as a consequence is another story. I imagine that in the future many countries will struggle with unwanted inflation. Loading up with gold, silver and even bronze will be a reaction to the unforeseen future, maybe a recession but who really knows?

 

[greggles]

In the absence of any weak economic data, especially from the Chinese, silver should remain strong into the new year. There are expectations that China will ramp up the stimulus in 2025 leading to stronger silver demand. With mine supply constrained for the foreseeable future this should inevitably lead to higher prices and I expect US$35 will be breached by the end of March.