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Sean K Trading

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Joe Blow said:
I have subscribed to this thread with email notifications to see what happens. I will let you know if it is working for me.
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I received this one @Joe Blow .
So it worked. I did resubscribe after not receiving any emails for some times.
Looks victim disappeared leaving no trace to catch the culprit
Regardless I am happy. But let you also know of thi
qldfrog said:
So will this post trigger you Joe?
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@qldfrog
Trigger does not apply to the poster else all.
 
Trigger as "event triggering" on the system ..my post purpose so that Joe could test...
 
I've gone ahead and sold DYL and LOT at $1.62 and .46 for about 60% current gain on both. Will probably swing most of that into URNM at the next opportunity. Or, if there's a larger correction in the single stocks will reconsider. With the US banning uranium from Russia the nuclear narrative will probably continue for some time but the easy money was made over the past 2 years.
 
So, I've doubled my URNM holding at $10.33 to keep a decent allocation in the uranium story.

Next cull will probably be to take some profits off WAF (up 50%) which I should have done recently at it's ATHs but I have been greedy. I just think gold has a long way to go. Might be best to do a similar thing with some gold stocks and take some profits and put into PMGOLD or the GDX. Owning NEM, NST, EVN doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense when I can reduce risk with the ETF for a similar return.

The holding pie looks like this now. Still 73% cash, waiting for ducati's black swan.

 
Sold half WAF at about $1.41 to lock in some gains. MC approaching $1.5b which is a big number and hitting a wall on the charts. Might charge through from the flag with a gold jump or more Swan Zone-like hits but I'm still in with enough for the moment. I think it's a great longer term play and will run with gold, but having too much of the treasury in Coup Central is risky. But, of course, there's risk/reward in West African gold plays and this one has worked out OK, so far.
 
Thanks @Sean K , a very enjoyable thread, and I just had a few observations and comments/questions, which you don't need to address now but when you've had time to mull it over. I'm genuinely interested in other's approach so no judgements or criticisms intended.

  • I was unsure re the decision for the initial allocation, in April 75% cash and 21 stocks, AU/CU/UA mainly. Was this your portfolio as it sat when you started the thread or do you have a "plan" for cash/stocks or metal/miners or individual commodities vs other commodities. Or is it just as your view of the market as it finds you and then deciding on moving e.g from UA to Gold as you mentioned.

  • The number of stocks, you started with 21 and now have 20. Are you considering moving to less or more. Alloccation within sectors may influence this. I only ask this as I have become more disciplined in my trading recently, less stocks over more, selling losers early within winning sectors and starting a new portfolio if I have more than 1-2 "orphans" in a trading portfolio. I have found myself to be more profitable with less stocks in my portfolio. Having said that my max number of portfolios has been two and max number stocks in each has been 8, but usually 6. In your case the sectors you are trading may decide the number, e.g. Gold explorers, you need more 20c pieces to hit a $5 hit than I do trading US Semiconductors and Health or Defence at $1 each to hit the same $5.

  • Do you have a time in market horizon, are you short term, medium or long? Just asking. I try to go for keepers for tax reasons but am in the majority whose losses are more attriting than my winnings are pleasurable, so the most I've been able to manage is medium. Which can be an ATO burden, but then a profit is a profit.

As I said, an enjoyable thread. Keep it up!

gg
 

Hi GG,

Yeah, all looks pretty messy without the back story. I've been wondering how to explain where I'm at with my current holdings and the reason for the cash. Maybe I should have started this thread with a fresh slate. I could still do that now, will think about it.

One of the reasons I'm high on cash is that I recently sold a property and put some of it into the trading account to play with.

The main reason I'm so heavy on junior resources is that's what I understand, and that's not much. Otherwise, I'm trading charts. I held about 30 stocks recently and it was too much. 20 is all I should have, otherwise I'm throwing darts at the RIH.

Every stock has a horizon depending on where they're at in the cycle and what the commodity is doing. The only long term keeper I have is IOZ but will add some other general ETFs going forward. Long term (10 years) the aim is to create passive income but I'm not sure if I'll be able to stop playing the market. It's my long term hobby now.

SK
 
Sold NEM at $63.16 for about a 4% gain after initially buying NCM in 2022. It was a crap deal for NCM holders and I'm lucky to escape in front after NEM tumbled but recovered due to POG. NEM is 12% of the GDX and I think it's only going to track the GDX, at best. It's performed really poorly the past few years (down half) and I don't even think it's a good turn around story, which might be wrong if gold goes to $4K. But, in the short term I can think of better things to do with the funds. Like in the high interest account, or back to something else gold that I see has more potential.
 
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Diverted some of the WAF and NEM funds into more PMGOLD at $35.37 ish taking it up to 10%.

I'm still liking the charts of GLD and PMGOLD at the moment. Both seemed to have consolidated OK without a massive round of profit taking. I really haven't wanted to chase any gold stocks or gold too much after the breakout so just going to keep nibbling.

 
Big day for copper, gold and silver on Friday so it should be a happy Monday for anyone speculating in those commodities.

I'm sort of thinking that the cash piece of my pie should be in those metals right now. Or, should have been a while ago as plenty saw this coming. But, I'm sitting on the proceeds of a property sale and haven't wanted to just go and put it all on black down at Crown.

My bet on natural rutile and graphite hasn't worked out to date. I have some faith in SVM, but KNG might end up a duster if the met is crap, or there's a sacred cave on the project we don't know about.

I've got too much in PDI with their entire existence hinging on them being able to bribe the Guinea Ministry for Mines to excise their $15b of gold sitting in a conservation area out of the park. Risk-reward. Scary stuff. Not good for my BP.

I'm re-calibrating why I own IOZ, or any generalist stock. I'm in receipt of a decent pension for life from the Army and that is the same as getting a distribution from an IOZ type thing every fortnight, until I die. Why? Dunno. Maybe it would be better spent on a boat. Or, black at Crown.


 
Bought a few more ETPMAG ave $44.44. Makes up 8% of stock holding now. I was going to wait for a decent pullback to buy a few more but I've decided to take a longer term approach with it and accept some short term drawdown if there's a decent period of consolidation. Looks like a long term breakout on silver that could go on for some time.
 
I've been sitting on my hands waiting for opportunities and decent pullback and consolidation on a few things like gold, silver and copper which may have now occurred. They're still well above decent support levels though. Also watching uranium consolidation at the moment. It's been going on for a while around the 90-100 dollar mark. So, watching ETPMAG, PMGOLD, URNM and WIRE closely.

I considered topping up on SVM when I saw it break up over 50c but it happened so quickly on no news I thought it was a bit random and could have just been based on a rampy rumour at HC. As expected, they got a speeding ticket which put a break on the price. Still holding well above 50c at the moment and I think I have enough so not chasing right now. Waiting for RIO to buy them out and/or ride the final wave of the the final hump in the Lassonde Curve to production which is some time away.

Other than that, I'm not seeing anything of real interest on my watchlist to add any extra stocks to the stable. Still wanting to reduce some of the large caps that shouldn't have been part of my plan in the first place. Just going to add on opportunities to longer term holds, find some specs I think are going under the radar and sell the dogs before EOFY.
 
Looks like we're getting that decent pullback on my favourite minerals at the moment on the back of some US economic news and China paused buying gold in May that might have triggered some profit taking and then algo selling. This will be an opportunity to deploy some cash once the dust settles.
 
They ( Whoever they are lol ) reckon the Chinese Govt. have stopped buying gold and its due for a pause. It doesn't seem like much of a market for quick profits.

I reckon Oil is due for a run up. Materials are down with $US strength.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
They ( Whoever they are lol ) reckon the Chinese Govt. have stopped buying gold and its due for a pause. It doesn't seem like much of a market for quick profits.

I reckon Oil is due for a run up. Materials are down with $US strength.

gg
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stopped buying gold from whom ?

as i understand it China mines a reasonable amount of their own , and several BRICS partners mine and export gold ( Brazil , Russia and South Africa ) , maybe China has run out of maturing US and EU bonds to be converted into physical bullion ( and are buying in yuan from BRICS partners )

just a possibility

after all the Chinese might believe they are fighting a trade war
 
It's been very slow around here. Have not done a thing since last trade posted. I'm sitting around waiting for opportunities and haven't seen any. Maybe I'm not looking hard enough.

I have been busy enough though. Planning holidays, going to the gym, walking the dog. That's a full time job.

It's now been a month since I bought or sold anything and decided that weakness in PDI was enough for me to revisit it. Bought a little more at 0.1697 cents. Still not sure how that happens. Taking a big risk that they get an excise from the park and are allowed to mine it. Could spell doom.

I'm going to start something fresh in the new FY to keep a track of buys and sells and current holdings. Will work out a better way to keep a track of things next year to keep me honest.

I'm about even this year with some great gains, and some disasters - thanks to CEL and SSR. S2R is also looking like an adventure gone wrong. I'll probably lock in some losses with those flea dogs tomorrow to carry forward into next year for the gazillions I'm going to make on PDI when they get a license to mine the monkey park. Or, eeeek.
 
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finicky said:
I like to rope others into my follies. There's security in numbers. As to PDI there's enough uncertainty in gold mining without monkeys.
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S2R could put a DD hole into the side of the road and hit 100m@50g/t from 1km and we can both properly retire. SSR - yikes. Wait for the compensation claims... from everyone. It's a write off.
 
Still on holidays here. A bit of a luxury to be getting an Army pension and not having to fight for scraps of meat on the street.

I was going to start this FY with a clean slate and allocate $500k to an ASF trading project but the effort to rejig my spreadsheets and account for it is too much for this koala to bear. So, I'm just going to stick with what I've got and continue to comment on any buys or sells and reasons so you can tell when I'm ramping my stocks in the stock threads, or not.

Last FY I was pretty much even in my closed trades having suffered major pain with CTM which in retrospect I should have just held for long term but I was scared off by management mismanagement. I also should have foreseen the collapse in the nickel price due to IndoChina crapping on the market, but I was listening to analysts who were badly wrong. As nickel sulfide is so hated at the moment, it makes me interested in going contrarian. But, I'm still hurting for now.

For the short term traders out there who like to preserve capital with some selling rules, please don't have a cow with the drawdown on CEL, HCH and SSR. I do actually have a cunning plan with those woofers. I'll come up with it at some stage.

The % holdings probably look pretty random to system traders too, but I'm completely discretionary and weight things towards what I have more or less confidence in. What I would really like to do is have a more concentrated portfolio of 10% in 10 stocks, so I'll work on that for this FY.

Still about 75% cash, waiting patiently for Wayne's four horsemen to arrive, but I'm also thinking about a yacht. That would be a very smart investment to avoid the apocalypse. Sailing the SW Pacific with a Starlink is very appealing.



 
Thanks @Sean K for another episode in your Trading Journey. It is good to see it is going well for you and meeting your benchmarks by and large. At least you know where you went wrong on some of them and know where your money is at any one moment. I must admit I don't have the skills for systematic trading and can empathise with your discretionary path.

The Army Pension is not to be sniffed at and provides a back up for when the whole world ever goes to the weeds. It is good to see you young whippersnappers getting recompensed for service. My Boer War pension though miniscule at the beginning has proven its use.

A very interesting post and now to delve in to those with which I'm not greatly familiar.

gg
 
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