Safety In The Market

[Pager]

I have not done the SITM course but have seen it via a friend who did the course a few years ago (late 90,s), had a read through the manuals, the basic ABC system looks ok and probably works if implemented correctly and with discipline.

They do however advise trading 10% of your account size on each trade , think it was angled that it only took a small accounts of about $10K to be able to trade Futures and given the risk most ABC trades had from looking at them (would have been around 30 points in the Spi or $750 plus brokerage), risking 10% would mean they could say it only took a $10K account.

A few losing trades in a row and you could be in serious drawdown, hard enough for those who have been trading a while but anyone new to trading I would imagine it would be a nightmare.

Agree with others that there is better value elsewhere and Nick Radges stuff would be a great place to start.

Cheers

Pager

 

[machi]

I think Bill Mclarens educational DVD's are pretty hard to beat and better value for $$, if you wanna buy educational material here in OZ..

 

[IFocus]

I think Waynel has nailed it and agree re Nick Radge haven’t seen any other with the same ethics and ability.

Although had lurked at Reef for many years I became a member of the Chartist only recently to expand my toolbox and regret not joining sooner.

I have no affiliation or connection with Nick Radge blah blah blah just my own experience

Focus

 

[Magdoran]

While I agree that there are a lot of spruikers out there not offering value for money, we should also recognise the other key variable – the individual.

Key things to think about is what you aim to achieve, in what time frame, with how much effort. Then you have to consider your innate makeup, and preferences, capabilities, talents etc.

Then you have to ask yourself how much time researching what is available will you put in, and how much money do you realistically want to spend, and what do you think would be value for money.

Here are some simple truths: the price of a course doesn’t necessarily correspond with quality or guarantee it will fit your persona and style.

You can’t expect to just walk in and be given a cash machine where you flip a switch and money comes out.

Input to an extent reflects output, although luck, talent, and mental attitude are key variables in the mix. Long term sound market psychology/mindset will triumph over the initial lucky streak often found in a clearly trending market. Translation – psychology, system, strategy, and analysis working in harmony are the key, (system and strategy deal with money management and positive expectancy). Personally I think Psychology is number one, and the most elusive quality to develop.

It is unrealistic to expect someone to sell you their unique way to make money. Even if they offer the foundations, they will always have elements they either won’t of can’t convey to you.

So, the key is to keep an open but discerning mind, and realise that this is a long term journey of discovery and development. The challenge is to find approaches that work for you, and move in a direction where you can (gradually) improve.

I disagree with this notion that forecasting styles are the same as moving average oscillator styles (MACDs for instance). Believe me there are some powerful technical styles out there that are significantly superior to many of the basic dime a dozen crossover lagging styles. Swing trading based on Elliott Wave, Gann, time cycles, and other forecasting styles are vastly different to the moving average/oscillator approaches when effectively employed. Many that detract from these styles in a sweeping fashion usually show a distinct lack or research on the subject. I’d love to see these people logically tear these theories apart rather than just dismiss them without taking the time to research them fully.

Just because the rif raff who claim to know these styles and can’t demonstrate their work in advance doesn’t necessarily lead to the conclusion that others can’t do this. I trade this way, and it works for me. I even put up some demonstrations of some of the concepts on the “Improving Chart Analysis” thread (not that I’m claiming to be an expert – I’m not. Maybe in 10 years time...). Just something to consider. Some people are more suited to mechanical styles – it’s all horses for courses. Just try to find what works for you whether it’s mechanical, intuitive/discretionary etc – perhaps try to be open to ideas, but discerning.

So, while I’m reluctant to recommend anything, I have consistently thought Mark Douglas’ book “Trading in the Zone” is the key text for psychology, and I agree with machi that Bill McLaren is certainly one of the most authoritative sources of knowledge when it comes to charting, and certainly if you are interested in advanced T/A (which requires years of effort to master), I have yet to see better work in this area. Add to that Prechter’s work on Elliott (EWI aren’t bad), and that should keep the serious budding technical analyst busy for quite some time. This is about developing your own skills, not relying on others, so it is only appropriate for those willing to spend the time and effort researching and developing their own style.

Food for thought.


Regards,


Magdoran

 

[wayneL]

...and I agree with machi that Bill McLaren is certainly one of the most authoritative sources of knowledge when it comes to charting, and certainly if you are interested in advanced T/A (which requires years of effort to master), I have yet to see better work in this area.

Mag,

You've spoken highly of Bill before, and I've only ever heard positive comment (eg machi)

I believe his courses are reasonably priced also, yes?

 

[Magdoran]

Mag,

You've spoken highly of Bill before, and I've only ever heard positive comment (eg machi)

I believe his courses are reasonably priced also, yes?

Hello Wayne (Count),


The Foundations for successful trading DVD set is currently $494.30 AUD.

The online subscription is (AUD) $242 for 6 months, or $44 per month (only really worthwhile in conjunction with the DVD set).

He’s also just released a new ebook on Trends which is $84.70 AUD (I haven’t seen it so I can’t comment on how good or bad it is).


Regards


Mag

 

[CanOz]

Hello Wayne (Count),


The Foundations for successful trading DVD set is currently $494.30 AUD.

The online subscription is (AUD) $242 for 6 months, or $44 per month (only really worthwhile in conjunction with the DVD set).

He’s also just released a new ebook on Trends which is $84.70 AUD (I haven’t seen it so I can’t comment on how good or bad it is).


Regards


Mag

Radge certainly beats that for value, at $50 per month. You get lots of free stuff to, including 3-4 charts with video analysis every nite, the volume spread analysis ebook, a bang for the buck filter, and heaps more. Since i've joined i generally only used it for the educational value, until recently when i started to take trades based on his signals and just sold out of BHP yesterday for a nice profit.

The funny thing is too...i'm not a big fan of EW but now i find myself staring at patterns of waves jumping off the screen at me, its like its been a passive learning experience in regards to the EW theory. Still a long ways to go but i'm more interested now than i was before.

I have no affiliation with him what so ever but i just think what he is doing is so under rated.



Cheers,

 

[Magdoran]

Radge certainly beats that for value, at $50 per month. You get lots of free stuff to, including 3-4 charts with video analysis every nite, the volume spread analysis ebook, a bang for the buck filter, and heaps more. Since i've joined i generally only used it for the educational value, until recently when i started to take trades based on his signals and just sold out of BHP yesterday for a nice profit.

The funny thing is too...i'm not a big fan of EW but now i find myself staring at patterns of waves jumping off the screen at me, its like its been a passive learning experience in regards to the EW theory. Still a long ways to go but i'm more interested now than i was before.

I have no affiliation with him what so ever but i just think what he is doing is so under rated.



Cheers,

You know, I was reluctant to recommend anything because you run the risk of upsetting people if they don’t get the benefit out of something as much as you do. It’s just like giving trading recommendations to other traders, if they trade it and it doesn’t work out they can become angry with you, and if they don’t trade it and it works, then can feel resentful… hence I just responded to Wayne's question on price without saying much else.

Hence I don’t want to come over as a spruiker. But I’ve done a lot of courses and investigated and trialled a lot of styles out there, and just try to think as objectively as I can (although I’m clearly biased on this, but in an informed way if that makes sense? Ha, wheels within wheels and all that!). What impressed me is that Bill’s been a trader for over 40 years, and even traded on the floor in the US, hence he’s got a lot of experience… and I really have seen no equal (perhaps Prechter at his theoretical best in EW).

Then guess what happens. We start to get the subjective value judgements coming in. This course is better than that. Ok, so be it, I’ve seen both courses in question here, and it doesn’t take a genius to know my opinion. But it is just that. An opinion based on personal preferences. I did not make any overt comparison or say “buy this”. What I did say was that for people seriously wishing to learn technical analysis that the “foundations” was an excellent course – there was no comparison made.

When I see people try to compare value, it is so subjective, and when a newbie T/A person sees $10 difference in the price, they attribute that to the value proposition without considering the content. I just wonder how many of these people have thoroughly investigated the alternatives.

I didn’t want to get into this, but CanOz, well done, you’ve forced my hand. I have no affiliation with McLaren either, and while I think Radge is very good for beginners, trying to compare him in the technical analysis capability and putting him higher than Bill McLaren is quite a statement. I have to strongly disagree here, I see no comparison.

So CanOz, I imagine you have thoroughly looked at both courses, haven’t you? Please tell me exactly why you think one is better than the other. Please outline the core concepts of McLaren’s patterns of trend and tell me how this is inferior to other courses?

Have you actually studied McLaren to make such a sweeping statement? How long exactly have you studied Rage, and how long have you studied McLaren?

Since you are so obviously such an accomplished and knowledgeable technical analyst, let’s see your handiwork at charting, and put it up for a comparison with mine. You have made the challenge, so now it’s time for you to put up or shut up.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[CanOz]

You know, I was reluctant to recommend anything because you run the risk of upsetting people if they don’t get the benefit out of something as much as you do. It’s just like giving trading recommendations to other traders, if they trade it and it doesn’t work out they can become angry with you, and if they don’t trade it and it works, then can feel resentful… hence I just responded to Wayne's question on price without saying much else.

Hence I don’t want to come over as a spruiker. But I’ve done a lot of courses and investigated and trialled a lot of styles out there, and just try to think as objectively as I can (although I’m clearly biased on this, but in an informed way it that makes sense? Ha, wheels within wheels and all that!). What impressed me is that Bill’s been a trader for over 40 years, and even traded on the floor in the US, hence he’s got a lot of experience… and I really have seen no equal (perhaps Prechter at his theoretical best in EW).

Then guess what happens. We start to get the subjective value judgements coming in. This course is better than that. Ok, so be it, I’ve seen both courses in question here, and it doesn’t take a genius to know my opinion. But it is just that. An opinion based on personal preferences. I did not make any overt comparison or say “buy this”. What I did say was that for people seriously wishing to learn technical analysis that the “foundations” was an excellent course – there was no comparison made.

When I see people try to compare value, it is so subjective, and when a newbie T/A person sees $10 difference in the price, they attribute that to the value proposition without considering the content. I just wonder how many of these people have thoroughly investigated the alternatives.

I didn’t want to get into this, but CanOz, well done, you’ve forced my hand. I have no affiliation with McLaren either, and while I think Radge is very good for beginners, trying to compare him in the technical analysis capability and putting him higher than Bill McLaren is quite a statement. I have to strongly disagree here, I see no comparison.

So CanOz, I imagine you have thoroughly looked at both courses, haven’t you? Please tell me exactly why you think one is better than the other. Please outline the core concepts of McLaren’s patterns of trend and tell me how this is inferior to other courses?

Have you actually studied McLaren to make such a sweeping statement? How long exactly have you studied Rage, and how long have you studied McLaren?

Since you are so obviously such an accomplished and knowledgeable technical analyst, let’s see your handiwork at charting, and put it up for a comparison with mine. You have made the challenge, so now it’s time for you to put up or shut up.


Regards


Magdoran

I'll quite happily shut up Mag...given that i don't actively 'study' either of them, i'm sure your analysis would be miles ahead of my immature T/A. I've only been at this part time for about 8 months.....still very much a learner.

So i'll get off this thread and leave it to you pro's to debate.

Sorry for ruffling any feathers folks.

Cheers,

 

[machi]

Radge certainly beats that for value, at $50 per month. You get lots of free stuff to, including 3-4 charts with video analysis every nite, the volume spread analysis ebook, a bang for the buck filter, and heaps more. Since i've joined i generally only used it for the educational value, until recently when i started to take trades based on his signals and just sold out of BHP yesterday for a nice profit.

Do you want quality or quantity?..

I have read Nick Radges book Adaptive Analysis, and found it to be OK as an introduction for beginners, but he material is rather generic for the more experienced trader, The section on Elliott I found to be primitive, no new ideas there....

 

[CanOz]

Do you want quality or quantity?..

I have read Nick Radges book Adaptive Analysis, and found it to be OK as an introduction for beginners, but he material is rather generic for the more experienced trader, The section on Elliott I found to be primitive, no new ideas there.>>>>

I was referring to his site "The Chartist", not his book..which i have also read.

Cheers,

 

[Magdoran]

I'll quite happily shut up Mag...given that i don't actively 'study' either of them, i'm sure your analysis would be miles ahead of my immature T/A. I've only been at this part time for about 8 months.....still very much a learner.

So i'll get off this thread and leave it to you pro's to debate.

Sorry for ruffling any feathers folks.

Cheers,

Hello CanOz,


I appreciate your honesty and good grace, thank-you. I’m sorry if I came over too strongly on this issue, but I suppose I do have a passion for it.

I really didn’t want to get into a “this is better than that” slanging match, precisely because everyone will have their own unique needs and perspectives, and it is not for me to say which is better for an individual. That’s up to them.

If people simply said that they thought “X” was worthwhile for whatever reason, fine, no problem. I can also respect considered well thought out critiques.

Good luck with your journey and it sounds like you are entering an exciting phase in your technical analysis development. This is something I share, and the empowerment received by being able to recognise patterns that you couldn’t see before I know is a wonderful feeling.


Regards,


Magdoran

 

[BentRod]

Canaussieuck,
I couldn't agree more regarding the chartist. Great value with the video charts, 4 systems,traders almanac and all the rest of the educational material.

Do you want quality or quantity?..

I have read Nick Radges book Adaptive Analysis, and found it to be OK as an introduction for beginners, but he material is rather generic for the more experienced trader, The section on Elliott I found to be primitive, no new ideas there.>>>>

Are you saying that more complex is better??

If so I disagree.

I like Nick's style of EW/trading.

I'll stick with the bloke who called the correction at 5400(and traded it short all the way down) live here on the forum.

 

[Bronte]

I'll stick with the bloke who called the correction at 5400(and traded it short all the way down) live here on the forum.

Can you post a link please BentRod.....We missed this trade

 

[Magdoran]

Just a quick clarification here:

I would see doing both courses by McLaren and Radge as complementary. I would not normally “compare” them since they are addressing quite different aspects of technical analysis.

McLaren does have a section on wave structure which briefly introduces Prechter and Frost’s interpretations of Elliott Wave theory. But it in no way is an in-depth analysis of Elliott Wave theory.

Radge is primarily concerned with EW theory, and has an excellent introduction to using EW analysis, and also a focus on money management and positive expectancy.

I would see these as complementary since they deal with different aspects of trading, and having both areas of knowledge would be beneficial, in my opinion.

McLaren though covers key concepts in charting principles that I think are excellent as a foundation for developing effective technical analysis skills.


Mag

 

[Nick Radge]

To clarify, my trading course has no Elliott Wave or Volume Analysis. I think the original question was specifically re the course.

 

[coyotte]

Magdoran:

Is McLaren's DVD you mention the same as the CD set seminar he had by the same title?


Cheers
Coyotte

 

[Magdoran]

Since Canaussieuck commented on the online content primarily, my understanding from the online materials that I’ve seen had examples of Elliott Wave numbering approaches incorporated into these.

Also, since the subject of text came up, I thought it was reasonable to sum up a body of knowledge in it’s essence.

My understanding is that Nick’s approach is primarily based on the works of Robert Fisher, and Robert Miner…

Hence my statements were based on the broader sense not the narrow one…


Mag

 

[Magdoran]

Magdoran:

Is McLaren's DVD you mention the same as the CD set seminar he had by the same title?


Cheers
Coyotte

You’ve got me there coyotte – I’ve never seen a cd set, only DVD. There may be some tapes from the 90s someone has copied to cd out there, but I’m not aware of them…

I’d be interested if you know where you can get them, I have some holes in my McLaren collection…

Maybe it is just a pirated audio version? The video side of the DVD is vital in my view…

But the DVD I was referring to is the Foundations set, part 1 not the time factor set.


Mag

 

[SevenFX]

Mag,

I spoke to the Gentleman Himself (Bill Mc) today and for the record, the was very Approachable, Humble, Decent and a wealth of knowledge from what Little my judgements could make.

He did mention his trading started back in the 60's and working on the US floor himself, which I'm sure their would have been lots to learn.

I'm still researching his stuff and leaning to a purchase of both his dvd sets.

Anyway Guys, better get back to "Safety In the Market" thread. in all fairness to OP.

Cheers
SevenFX