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S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

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Re: S&P 500

blahh what happened here ran through where I thought it would hold.

Might close a couple put positions on djx, better leave some on in case this is GFC mark II.

The banks bodgy accounting rules finally catching up to the market or something?
 
Re: S&P 500

nunthewiser said:
hitting overdrive in the smackdown................intresting night indeed
Click to expand...

I cant believe she tickled 1000.
I can hear all the bears tomorrow 'I told yous all'...
I'm guessing it will rest here and retrace up for a while, maybe during asia time.
Gotta luv volatility. Two weeks ranging really bored me.
 
Re: S&P 500

Is it just me or does the ES appear to be under performing today? Back from the long weekend, the AUD is strong, EUR too, oil, gold ... meanwhile the S&P struggling to get above its open (so far anyway).
 
Re: S&P 500

Timmy said:
Is it just me or does the ES appear to be under performing today? Back from the long weekend, the AUD is strong, EUR too, oil, gold ... meanwhile the S&P struggling to get above its open (so far anyway).
Click to expand...


Its just chopping around in a range now after they tried to sell it off on the open.

It had a decent run up from this afternoon and i think currencies are mainly advancing on $ weakness, along with Oil.

Still early though but i'm going to sleep now so will see where we end up in the morning
 
Re: S&P 500

Bit late to bring this up for today, should have asked about it earlier.

Anyone any thoughts on the USTreasuries? Very strong 3-day down move (chart below). Mkt looking for stronger economic figures this week? Just a technical move down from price resistance?
 

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Re: S&P 500

few good entries at the open there for any of the quick traders. posted some examples on my blog for those interested. it don't seem to interested in heading above 1070 at this stage, need to see a wide push high volume attempt through, so far we're only getting narrow spread stuff all volume, markets rolling over as I type, this on the 1m im talking.

trade to trade well
 
Re: S&P 500

1082 is the key level here I think everybody will be watching. If we are to get any serious selling this is the place.

Interesting to note that that Thursday was the first real sign of selling we have seen for some time. I account this to longer term traders doing some early profit taking before we attempt to fill the 1082-1102 gap.

Adding to this fact the US dollar is starting to look way oversold and the index has bounced off key support, doesn't bold well for US equities.

Next week has the possibility of being a real turning point in the market I believe.
 
Re: S&P 500

Semi's made a lower high last week.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH

Depends if you believe they have leading qualities.

ES 1072 might be the top that we reached thursday midnight with the manufacturing index number. It was 'better than expected' but I think there was shorting into that news because the es fell 15 after it.

But the sideways es movement of the last 48 hours could be a continuation phase, friday's asian lod had good volume to it. As you say, it all depends if the usd and us bonds start to rise or go sideways.
 
Re: S&P 500

AzzaB80 said:
Adding to this fact the US dollar ... index has bounced off key support, doesn't bold well for US equities.
Click to expand...

Broadway said:
Semi's made a lower high last week.
As you say, it all depends if the usd and us bonds start to rise or go sideways.
Click to expand...

Good info thanks guys.

From another 'fundamental' perspective I think this is a very useful article:
Money figures show there's trouble ahead
In summary, "Private credit is contracting on both sides of the Atlantic."
Author is Evans-Pritchard from The Telegraph.

Also, and more specifically for the S&P500, and the ES is this:
Rushing to the Exits?
There are more and more of these sorts of discussions - when will the easing begin to be wound back? Pretty much everyone concludes that it is way too early, but the prevalence of these discussions makes me think there is a lot of official concern about the weakness of the USD (and what that may entail for the confidence in US assets, both equities and bonds) and there may well be an increase in official news and leaks and signals about coming tightening. If you don't want to read all of Duy's article, read his bottom line:

Bottom Line. The Fed is moving toward the exit as they look toward the conclusion of their securities purchases programs. But it is not clear that such a move is justified by their own forecasts or the inflation/wage/employment data. There may be an internal fear they have gone too far, a fear that the hawks can exploit. To be sure, I see no reason to expect the Fed will raise rates for a long time. And the Fed maintains it policy flexibility, claiming to be ready to revive asset purchases should economic or financial conditions justify. But I now suspect the bar for renewed expansion of Fed accommodation may be much higher than I had anticipated. And that the dominant push for expansion would have to come from financial market conditions, while they would be willing to tolerate persistently high unemployment rates so long as U. Michigan inflation expectations say elevated, regardless of the actual inflation data. (My bolding).

Given the ES has been driven by the liquidity trade, this is not a good sign.

Having said all this, Broadway, your point about the price action on the ES is a good one. The sell-off after the post-FOMC highs has only been about 35 points, which is really not much. But, it closed Friday near (basically on) its lows. I will be watching for whether the price action indicates renewed accumulation (or not) for clues as to how the market is reading these developments.
 
Re: S&P 500

My current guess for next week is ranged ES action for a few days. Maybe between 1035 and 1070. On Friday night around 2-3am, ES 1036 was supported by strong volume in ES, YM and the liquid ETFs and even some important stocks like GS.

Depends alot on Oil lately, it seems to be in a down trend which could lead us lower if it doesn't stop. Semi's not helpful on Friday.

Im hoping for Japan to have a really strong volume LOD on Monday then I'll be all over the ES with longs.

The elephant in the room is Iran and that nuclear refinement issue.

 
Re: S&P 500

Timmy said:
Looked to me like someone got that data nice and early too.
Click to expand...

They most certainly did, much to my dismay when i returned to my monitor to prepare for the release.

Not happy at all but of course nothing you can do about it.

I'm not staying up tonight but it will be interesting to see if there is any late buying today.
 
Re: S&P 500

Certainly went to town with it, shifted some big volume!
 
Re: S&P 500

Interesting to see the big move down a couple of minutes before the PMI release. Totally obvious the data had been leaked.
 
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