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S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

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Re: S&P 500

OK - just found this out. The company that compiles the PMI report gives the figure to its subscribers 3 minutes before the release. Amazing ... never heard of this happening with any other figures before.

So, could be worth watching the action 3 minutes before the release ... as long as there is no spoofing going on!
 
Re: S&P 500

Timmy said:
OK - just found this out. The company that compiles the PMI report gives the figure to its subscribers 3 minutes before the release. Amazing ... never heard of this happening with any other figures before.

So, could be worth watching the action 3 minutes before the release ... as long as there is no spoofing going on!
Click to expand...

Well that is quite interesting. I know news agency's are given access to data half an hour or so before big release so that they can write up article, but the journalists are held in some kind of a confinement area so they cannot leak anything.

I wonder how many people actually know about this PMI report...
 
Re: S&P 500

Just reread my post ... and it might look like this 3-minute early info is some nutjob conspiracy theory ... black helicopters, no moon landings, LSD in the water, whatever ....

So, from the website of the private firm that compiles and releases the Chicago PMI data:

ISM-Chicago Business Survey | "Chicago PMI"

The ISM-Chicago Business Survey is a proven monthly 'first look' at business, government and NGO economic activity in the USA.

Released on the last working day of each month, the ISM-Chicago Business Survey reports the extent of expanding or contracting economic activity.

Based on a panel drawn from the membership of the Institute for Supply Management - Chicago (ISM-Chicago), the survey includes data from global business activities of the responding companies.
Subscription

Your subscription gives you access to this market-moving data 3 minutes before public release in addition to funding the business survey.

Payment can be by check, wire transfer, or PayPal.

http://www.kingbiz.com/about_barometer2.asp

Cheapest option is an email about 3 mins before the release, $US200/month.
Conference call starting at 8.42 am (Chicago time), $US265/month

(Voices in your head are free. Can be stopped with tinfoil hat, $5 +GST :D)
 
Re: S&P 500

Timmy said:
Just reread my post ... and it might look like this 3-minute early info is some nutjob conspiracy theory ... black helicopters, no moon landings, LSD in the water, whatever ....

So, from the website of the private firm that compiles and releases the Chicago PMI data:

ISM-Chicago Business Survey | "Chicago PMI"

The ISM-Chicago Business Survey is a proven monthly 'first look' at business, government and NGO economic activity in the USA.

Released on the last working day of each month, the ISM-Chicago Business Survey reports the extent of expanding or contracting economic activity.

Based on a panel drawn from the membership of the Institute for Supply Management - Chicago (ISM-Chicago), the survey includes data from global business activities of the responding companies.
Subscription

Your subscription gives you access to this market-moving data 3 minutes before public release in addition to funding the business survey.

Payment can be by check, wire transfer, or PayPal.

http://www.kingbiz.com/about_barometer2.asp

Cheapest option is an email about 3 mins before the release, $US200/month.
Conference call starting at 8.42 am (Chicago time), $US265/month

(Voices in your head are free. Can be stopped with tinfoil hat, $5 +GST :D)
Click to expand...

Waayy ahead of you Timmy, I already found all of that. I think i would be better off just watching the markets reaction 3mins before the release.
 
Re: S&P 500

Timmy said:
Just reread my post ... and it might look like this 3-minute early info is some nutjob conspiracy theory ... black helicopters, no moon landings, LSD in the water, whatever ....
Click to expand...

Conspiricy theories are much more fun than the boring truth. :D
 
Re: S&P 500

There were some hints during yesterday that the news would be bearish. Spi/bhp had volume on peaks, hsi and k200 slid. Bonds suggested it during europe time. And right after the bullish 1030pm data the market hit some shorting.
There was even a guy on cnbc who thought it would be bad and said so beforehand.

All good fun.:)
 

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Re: S&P 500

For the first time in months i am becoming a little bearish.

On the daily we may have made a high around 1080 and then a lower high around 1070.

If we break 1040, then i will be officially changing my avatar :D

Still plenty of buying on weakness though so won't be fighting the trend until i see a definitive close below that 1040.

Not making any ridiculous calls of a new low or anything, just a healthy pull back, if it eventuates.
 
Re: S&P 500

Nice calls in here recently guys ... good analysis, and a focus on timing.
 
Re: S&P 500

Anyone interested in longs today for a swing trade off the lows? Might not get profits till next week but today has to be a buying opportunity? Anyone?

:)
 
Re: S&P 500

I'll be sticking with the day-trading (errr night-trading, whatever it is for us :confused:).
 
Re: S&P 500

US Treasuries (10 Yr Note), 2 charts attached, one is a zoom in.

If I was a VSA man I would be looking at that volume and price action on Friday and say the market was screaming "TOP!!!!!".

If I was a Candlestick man I would be looking at that Doji (I think that's what it is, maybe a Hanging Man? Purists, pls let me know) on Friday and say the market was screaming "TOP!!!!!".

Implications for the ES? Well, the USTs are but one input into the picture, albeit a really, really important one IMHO, would have to think a 'buy on dips' approach for the ES. Want to see some other things before becoming too wedded to the view, especially what the G7 produce this weekend.

Charts from Futuresource.
http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ZN Z9&o=&a=D&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=bar&st=VOI(1,1);
 

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Re: S&P 500

Last week with all the talk from various Fed board members about exit strategies and the coming tightening, probably achieved what these comments were intended to achieve, a diminution in the selling of the USD heading into the G7. Maybe. There wasn't sufficient buying to send the USD up to any notable extent, but the down move was halted for a week.

USD Index chart attached.

Eurodollar chart also attached - there is no sign whatsoever here of an early exit from easing policies (IMHO).

Couple of articles from Bloomberg in last hours:
Geithner Says Recovery Signs Are 'Stronger' Than Expected
"Planning for an eventual exit is the responsible and necessary thing to do, but we are not yet in the position where it would be prudent to begin to withdraw fiscal and monetary policy support," Geithner said in remarks released after a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven nations. My underlining.

G-7 Avoids Dollar Criticism, Warns Against 'Disorderly' Trading
Group of Seven finance chiefs stopped short of singling out the weaker dollar for criticism and stuck to their mantra that "disorderly" swings in currencies threaten economic growth....
"Following the escalated rhetoric, investors may have been braced for some escalation in language," said Sophia Drossos, co-head for global foreign exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley in New York. "Since we didn't get it, I look for the trend of dollar weakness to reassert itself."

The signs/indicators are adding up for more dip buying in the ES, and resumption of the up move. Not sure what day the next up move will start to kick in, but I think the down move is now going to peter out quickly. Again, will be watching the price action, as, from a price action perspective the ES did basically close on its lows again this week (& this has to count for something), but my bias is buying going into the coming week.

Charts again from Futuresource (hopefully these ones are a bit clearer).
 

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Re: S&P 500

Horrible Jobs data friday night sent the es down a bit but she hit large volume and proceeded straight up to where she was before the data. Im thinking that sort of action can only be bullish for next week.
Fingers and toes crossed as usual.
:)
 
Re: S&P 500

PMI data out soon.
I think Im seeing some buying in bonds in the last half hour.
Maybe the pros are thinking it might be worse than expected.
Good luck if your trading the data release.
:)
 
Re: S&P 500

Broadway said:
PMI data out soon.
I think Im seeing some buying in bonds in the last half hour.
Maybe the pros are thinking it might be worse than expected.
Good luck if your trading the data release.
:)
Click to expand...

There is a divergence between Bunds and 10year t-notes atm because news came out Iran developed a detonator that could trigger a nuclear weapon.

p.s. PMI was a total nonevent. Was interesting to see plenty of liquidity being offered right up until the announcement.
 

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