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Re: S&P 500
Im hearing on the wires wells fargo is in some kind of trouble.
Im hearing on the wires wells fargo is in some kind of trouble.
S&P500 - Analysis and Trading
- Thread starter RichKid
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Re: S&P 500
Nunny, whats your average hold time?
Nunny, whats your average hold time?
Re: S&P 500
blahh what happened here
ran through where I thought it would hold.
Might close a couple put positions on djx, better leave some on in case this is GFC mark II.
The banks bodgy accounting rules finally catching up to the market or something?
blahh what happened here
ran through where I thought it would hold.Might close a couple put positions on djx, better leave some on in case this is GFC mark II.
The banks bodgy accounting rules finally catching up to the market or something?
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Re: S&P 500
indicies or stocks?
indicies mainly intraday
stocks vary long and short
indicies or stocks?
indicies mainly intraday
stocks vary long and short
Re: S&P 500
I cant believe she tickled 1000.
I can hear all the bears tomorrow 'I told yous all'...
I'm guessing it will rest here and retrace up for a while, maybe during asia time.
Gotta luv volatility. Two weeks ranging really bored me.
I cant believe she tickled 1000.
I can hear all the bears tomorrow 'I told yous all'...
I'm guessing it will rest here and retrace up for a while, maybe during asia time.
Gotta luv volatility. Two weeks ranging really bored me.
Timmy
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Re: S&P 500
Is it just me or does the ES appear to be under performing today? Back from the long weekend, the AUD is strong, EUR too, oil, gold ... meanwhile the S&P struggling to get above its open (so far anyway).
Is it just me or does the ES appear to be under performing today? Back from the long weekend, the AUD is strong, EUR too, oil, gold ... meanwhile the S&P struggling to get above its open (so far anyway).
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Re: S&P 500
Its just chopping around in a range now after they tried to sell it off on the open.
It had a decent run up from this afternoon and i think currencies are mainly advancing on $ weakness, along with Oil.
Still early though but i'm going to sleep now so will see where we end up in the morning
Its just chopping around in a range now after they tried to sell it off on the open.
It had a decent run up from this afternoon and i think currencies are mainly advancing on $ weakness, along with Oil.
Still early though but i'm going to sleep now so will see where we end up in the morning
Timmy
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Re: S&P 500
few good entries at the open there for any of the quick traders. posted some examples on my blog for those interested. it don't seem to interested in heading above 1070 at this stage, need to see a wide push high volume attempt through, so far we're only getting narrow spread stuff all volume, markets rolling over as I type, this on the 1m im talking.
trade to trade well
few good entries at the open there for any of the quick traders. posted some examples on my blog for those interested. it don't seem to interested in heading above 1070 at this stage, need to see a wide push high volume attempt through, so far we're only getting narrow spread stuff all volume, markets rolling over as I type, this on the 1m im talking.
trade to trade well
Re: S&P 500
1082 is the key level here I think everybody will be watching. If we are to get any serious selling this is the place.
Interesting to note that that Thursday was the first real sign of selling we have seen for some time. I account this to longer term traders doing some early profit taking before we attempt to fill the 1082-1102 gap.
Adding to this fact the US dollar is starting to look way oversold and the index has bounced off key support, doesn't bold well for US equities.
Next week has the possibility of being a real turning point in the market I believe.
1082 is the key level here I think everybody will be watching. If we are to get any serious selling this is the place.
Interesting to note that that Thursday was the first real sign of selling we have seen for some time. I account this to longer term traders doing some early profit taking before we attempt to fill the 1082-1102 gap.
Adding to this fact the US dollar is starting to look way oversold and the index has bounced off key support, doesn't bold well for US equities.
Next week has the possibility of being a real turning point in the market I believe.
Re: S&P 500
Semi's made a lower high last week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH
Depends if you believe they have leading qualities.
ES 1072 might be the top that we reached thursday midnight with the manufacturing index number. It was 'better than expected' but I think there was shorting into that news because the es fell 15 after it.
But the sideways es movement of the last 48 hours could be a continuation phase, friday's asian lod had good volume to it. As you say, it all depends if the usd and us bonds start to rise or go sideways.
Semi's made a lower high last week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH
Depends if you believe they have leading qualities.
ES 1072 might be the top that we reached thursday midnight with the manufacturing index number. It was 'better than expected' but I think there was shorting into that news because the es fell 15 after it.
But the sideways es movement of the last 48 hours could be a continuation phase, friday's asian lod had good volume to it. As you say, it all depends if the usd and us bonds start to rise or go sideways.
Timmy
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Re: S&P 500
Good info thanks guys.
From another 'fundamental' perspective I think this is a very useful article:
Money figures show there's trouble ahead
In summary, "Private credit is contracting on both sides of the Atlantic."
Author is Evans-Pritchard from The Telegraph.
Also, and more specifically for the S&P500, and the ES is this:
Rushing to the Exits?
There are more and more of these sorts of discussions - when will the easing begin to be wound back? Pretty much everyone concludes that it is way too early, but the prevalence of these discussions makes me think there is a lot of official concern about the weakness of the USD (and what that may entail for the confidence in US assets, both equities and bonds) and there may well be an increase in official news and leaks and signals about coming tightening. If you don't want to read all of Duy's article, read his bottom line:
Bottom Line. The Fed is moving toward the exit as they look toward the conclusion of their securities purchases programs. But it is not clear that such a move is justified by their own forecasts or the inflation/wage/employment data. There may be an internal fear they have gone too far, a fear that the hawks can exploit. To be sure, I see no reason to expect the Fed will raise rates for a long time. And the Fed maintains it policy flexibility, claiming to be ready to revive asset purchases should economic or financial conditions justify. But I now suspect the bar for renewed expansion of Fed accommodation may be much higher than I had anticipated. And that the dominant push for expansion would have to come from financial market conditions, while they would be willing to tolerate persistently high unemployment rates so long as U. Michigan inflation expectations say elevated, regardless of the actual inflation data. (My bolding).
Given the ES has been driven by the liquidity trade, this is not a good sign.
Having said all this, Broadway, your point about the price action on the ES is a good one. The sell-off after the post-FOMC highs has only been about 35 points, which is really not much. But, it closed Friday near (basically on) its lows. I will be watching for whether the price action indicates renewed accumulation (or not) for clues as to how the market is reading these developments.
Good info thanks guys.
From another 'fundamental' perspective I think this is a very useful article:
Money figures show there's trouble ahead
In summary, "Private credit is contracting on both sides of the Atlantic."
Author is Evans-Pritchard from The Telegraph.
Also, and more specifically for the S&P500, and the ES is this:
Rushing to the Exits?
There are more and more of these sorts of discussions - when will the easing begin to be wound back? Pretty much everyone concludes that it is way too early, but the prevalence of these discussions makes me think there is a lot of official concern about the weakness of the USD (and what that may entail for the confidence in US assets, both equities and bonds) and there may well be an increase in official news and leaks and signals about coming tightening. If you don't want to read all of Duy's article, read his bottom line:
Bottom Line. The Fed is moving toward the exit as they look toward the conclusion of their securities purchases programs. But it is not clear that such a move is justified by their own forecasts or the inflation/wage/employment data. There may be an internal fear they have gone too far, a fear that the hawks can exploit. To be sure, I see no reason to expect the Fed will raise rates for a long time. And the Fed maintains it policy flexibility, claiming to be ready to revive asset purchases should economic or financial conditions justify. But I now suspect the bar for renewed expansion of Fed accommodation may be much higher than I had anticipated. And that the dominant push for expansion would have to come from financial market conditions, while they would be willing to tolerate persistently high unemployment rates so long as U. Michigan inflation expectations say elevated, regardless of the actual inflation data. (My bolding).
Given the ES has been driven by the liquidity trade, this is not a good sign.
Having said all this, Broadway, your point about the price action on the ES is a good one. The sell-off after the post-FOMC highs has only been about 35 points, which is really not much. But, it closed Friday near (basically on) its lows. I will be watching for whether the price action indicates renewed accumulation (or not) for clues as to how the market is reading these developments.
Re: S&P 500
My current guess for next week is ranged ES action for a few days. Maybe between 1035 and 1070. On Friday night around 2-3am, ES 1036 was supported by strong volume in ES, YM and the liquid ETFs and even some important stocks like GS.
Depends alot on Oil lately, it seems to be in a down trend which could lead us lower if it doesn't stop. Semi's not helpful on Friday.
Im hoping for Japan to have a really strong volume LOD on Monday then I'll be all over the ES with longs.
The elephant in the room is Iran and that nuclear refinement issue.
My current guess for next week is ranged ES action for a few days. Maybe between 1035 and 1070. On Friday night around 2-3am, ES 1036 was supported by strong volume in ES, YM and the liquid ETFs and even some important stocks like GS.
Depends alot on Oil lately, it seems to be in a down trend which could lead us lower if it doesn't stop. Semi's not helpful on Friday.
Im hoping for Japan to have a really strong volume LOD on Monday then I'll be all over the ES with longs.
The elephant in the room is Iran and that nuclear refinement issue.
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Re: S&P 500
11 points down in 9 minutes, I think the US woke up on the wrong side of the bed!
11 points down in 9 minutes, I think the US woke up on the wrong side of the bed!
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Re: S&P 500
That would be the wrong side of the PMI data.
11 points down in 9 minutes, I think the US woke up on the wrong side of the bed!
That would be the wrong side of the PMI data.
Timmy
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Re: S&P 500
They most certainly did, much to my dismay when i returned to my monitor to prepare for the release.
Not happy at all but of course nothing you can do about it.
I'm not staying up tonight but it will be interesting to see if there is any late buying today.
They most certainly did, much to my dismay when i returned to my monitor to prepare for the release.
Not happy at all but of course nothing you can do about it.
I'm not staying up tonight but it will be interesting to see if there is any late buying today.
Timmy
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Re: S&P 500
Certainly went to town with it, shifted some big volume!
Certainly went to town with it, shifted some big volume!
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Re: S&P 500
Interesting to see the big move down a couple of minutes before the PMI release. Totally obvious the data had been leaked.
Interesting to see the big move down a couple of minutes before the PMI release. Totally obvious the data had been leaked.
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