S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

There is a divergence between Bunds and 10year t-notes atm because news came out Iran developed a detonator that could trigger a nuclear weapon.

Thanks NS

 

[AzzaB80]

Re: S&P 500

Good article from Andy Xie who is turning out to be one of my favourite economists. His views make a lot of sense to me
http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-09-28/110267252.html
"Financial markets are still maximum bearish on the dollar. Liquidity is being channeled out of dollar into all other assets. This is why there is such a high correlation between the dollar and other assets. I think this is the most crowded trade in the world. When the dollar reverses, the short squeeze could cause a global crisis."

Something to keep in mind

 

[Real1ty]

Re: S&P 500

For the first time in months i am becoming a little bearish.

On the daily we may have made a high around 1080 and then a lower high around 1070.

If we break 1040, then i will be officially changing my avatar

Still plenty of buying on weakness though so won't be fighting the trend until i see a definitive close below that 1040.

Not making any ridiculous calls of a new low or anything, just a healthy pull back, if it eventuates.

Well so much for that call and glad i didn't change my avatar, as i much prefer to Bears to look at it each day

S&P surging as i type and it's starting to look like this market will be hard to keep down with buying still so strong on weakness.

Looks to me like the "Money on the sidelines" is pretty valid and combined with the short $ long equities trade the flavour atm any significant downside move looks like a long shot.

Technically we haven't invalidated the first lower high we made, (so a down trend beginning is still possible) but it sure feels like we will.

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

Yep she climbed from last thursday at 1020 to 1045 now. There was just too much dip buying on the slide last wednesday for it to go much farther down.

But from volumes I'm seeing tonight in futures and last night's US volumes, maybe she has a down night tonight and maybe for a few days. Ive been wrong before though.
Good luck.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

I haven't seen/heard much reference to reporting season.

A little about how last reporting season the S&P went up (yeah, thanks for that).

Last time, though, leading in, there was quite a lot of prior discussion about how reporting season would bring the rally unstuck which left the upside vulnerable when the 'surprise' stronger results came in.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Columbus Day in the US today.
The exchanges are open.
Banks are closed (hey, that's gotta be good for the US economy ).

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Source:
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/be...rts-this-week-bespokes-earnings-calendar.html

Tuesday's big reports include JNJ before the open and CSX and INTC after the close.
JP Morgan (JPM) is the first big financial to report on Wednesday morning,
and then on Thursday we get reports from Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS) before the open
and Google (GOOG) and IBM after the close. Bank of America (BAC), General Electric (GE), and Halliburton finish off the week of reports on Friday morning.

 

[wayneL]

Re: S&P 500

Source:
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/be...rts-this-week-bespokes-earnings-calendar.html

Tuesday's big reports include JNJ before the open and CSX and INTC after the close.
JP Morgan (JPM) is the first big financial to report on Wednesday morning,
and then on Thursday we get reports from Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS) before the open
and Google (GOOG) and IBM after the close. Bank of America (BAC), General Electric (GE), and Halliburton finish off the week of reports on Friday morning.

Bill Luby http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/ notes flat option vols leading into earnings.

Note that just prior to the last two earnings reports, implied volatility rose due to the uncertainty and potential for higher volatility associated with an earnings surprise. This time around, however, the lack of movement in implied volatility – as well as the proximity of the IV level to historical volatility – suggests that investors are not expecting any surprises at all. In fact, this situation is not specific to JPMorgan, but is also mirrored at Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and even quasi-financial General Electric. Not surprisingly, the bank ETFs, such as KBE, and the financial sector ETF, XLF, show a similar pattern.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Bill Luby http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/ notes flat option vols leading into earnings.

Thanks Wayne, fits with my impression of the lack of 'buzz' around this reporting season:

I haven't seen/heard much reference to reporting season.

I expect a bit more action when the banks start to report. GS boosted the banks last week. I don't think it was the kiss of death, but maybe I am not cynical enough yet.

 

[wayneL]

Re: S&P 500

*wayneL notes the red numbers tonight with cautious satisfaction.

*wayneL will become very smug if this turns into a proper double top.

Ref Blog posts.

 

[Naked shorts]

Re: S&P 500

*wayneL notes the red numbers tonight with cautious satisfaction.

*wayneL will become very smug if this turns into a proper double top.

Ref Blog posts.

It very well might be. I had a big gain today on some investments in high yielding currencies. Thing is, as liquidity has moved into the market (with UK and US open), its been nothing but down trend. Did you write those gold oppies yet?

 

[wayneL]

Re: S&P 500

*wayneL notes the red numbers tonight with cautious satisfaction.

*wayneL will become very smug if this turns into a proper double top.

Ref Blog posts.

Potential smugness torpedoed by Intel. Guru status on hold.

 

[mazzatelli]

Re: S&P 500

Potential smugness torpedoed by Intel. Guru status on hold.

lol
As discussed on your blog, I hope GOOG holds for this week, and then you can have your move ...please God
LMAO

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: S&P 500

Potential smugness torpedoed by Intel. Guru status on hold.

JP morgans results MAY take a shine off

futures still climbing tho

 

[lukeaye]

Re: S&P 500

JP Morgan smashed expectations.

although you can't convince me that the "experts" predicitions aren't supposed to be undervalued.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: S&P 500

JPMorgan Chase, the first of the big banks to report third-quarter earnings, says its loan losses are still high and are expected to remain that way for the foreseeable future, a troubling sign for the economy.

hence my post

 

[Largesse]

Re: S&P 500

RE : JPMoregain

Ripped from another board:

Interesting notes:
Adjusted assets, a non-GAAP financial measure, equals total assets minus (1) securities purchased under resale agreements and securities borrowed less securities sold, not yet purchased; (2) assets of consolidated variable interest
entities ("VIEs"); (3) cash and securities segregated and on deposit for regulatory and other purposes; (4) goodwill and intangibles; (5) securities received as collateral; and (6) investments purchased under the Asset-Backed
Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility. The amount of adjusted assets is presented to assist the reader in comparing the Investment Bank's ("IB") asset and capital levels to other investment banks in the
securities industry. Asset-to-equity leverage ratios are commonly used as one measure to assess a company’s capital adequacy. IB believes an adjusted asset amount that excludes the assets discussed above, which were considered
to have a low risk profile, provides a more meaningful measure of balance sheet leverage in the securities industry.

(a) Results for year-to-date 2008 include four months of the combined Firm’s (JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s and Bear Stearns’) results and five months of heritage JPMorgan Chase & Co results.

(d) Represents loans from the Washington Mutual Master Trust, which were consolidated onto the Firm's balance sheet at fair value during the second quarter of 2009. No allowance for loan losses was recorded for these loans.


These two read well together lol.

(c) Excludes home lending purchased credit-impaired loans that were acquired as part of the Washington Mutual transaction. These loans are accounted for on a pool basis, and the pools are considered to be performing. Also excludes loans held-for-sale and loans at fair value.

(c) Excludes the impact of purchased credit-impaired loans that were acquired as part of the Washington Mutual transaction. These loans were accounted for at fair value on the acquisition date,] which incorporated management's estimate,as of that date, of credit losses over the remaining life of the portfolio.The allowance for loan losses associated with these loans was $1.1 billion at September 30, 2009. No allowance for loan losses was recorded for these loans as of June 30, 2009, March 31, 2009, December 31, 2008, and September 30, 2008.

 

[lukeaye]

Re: S&P 500

Set to be a big night tonight!
There is alot riding on tonight with bank of america and GE to report.
whats everyones thoughts? whats the vibe

 

[beerwm]

Re: S&P 500

anyone got a good site for up-to-date reports. as they happen

forex factory calendar is abit general

 

[seasprite]

Re: S&P 500

Set to be a big night tonight!
There is alot riding on tonight with bank of america and GE to report.
whats everyones thoughts? whats the vibe

I would be surprised if it broke above the line , EUR/USD in same predicament on the day/3 year graph . Mind you oil broke out 5 weeks early in my book.