"The reaction function of the FOMC seems to have changed. In my simple terms, QE has never always come with the stock market down YTD -- now, it appears we’ll receive it with S&P up 14%."
That's from a Goldman desk note send around earlier today, and it's a great point.
This chart from Doug Short shows it nicely, that all previous QEs and Twists came during periods when the market was at a low.
Bespoke@bespokeinvest
The Euro is on pace to open and close above its 200-DMA for the first time in more than a year.$$
Even after the S&P 500 broke out to new bull market highs in the latest week, very few bulls have come out of the woodwork. After dropping slightly below one-third last week, the latest bullish sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) rose modestly to 36.46% this week. For a market trading at multi-year highs, this relatively low level of bullishness is rare to say the least.
Over the last several weeks, we have noted the fact that cumulative breadth for the S&P 500 has been lagging the overall market. In fact, for each of the higher highs that the S&P 500 made off the summer lows, cumulative breadth failed to make a higher high. The chart below shows the updated cumulative breadth for the S&P 500 over the last 12 months. Each of the red lines in the top chart correspond to a short term peak in the S&P 500, while the red lines in the bottom chart indicate where the cumulative A/D line was at the time of the short-term peak in the index.
Following today's rally, cumulative breadth made its first higher high since the spring. While breadth still has a bit to go before taking out its highs from back then, the higher high is a sign that the rally is showing signs of broadening strength.
bespokeinvest said:Even after the S&P 500 broke out to new bull market highs in the latest week, very few bulls have come out of the woodwork. After dropping slightly below one-third last week, the latest bullish sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) rose modestly to 36.46% this week. For a market trading at multi-year highs, this relatively low level of bullishness is rare to say the least.
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/9/13/breadth-finally-makes-a-higher-high.html
Breadth Finally Makes a Higher High
Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 04:59PM
Although the Breadth has been a bit of a lagger the 52 week highs has been very healthy for the last 2 weeks.
Will post a chart later.
"OF COURSE IT WAS A SET UP"
"Everything I do in this area (wildlife conservation) should have nothing to do with politics. But for a man in my position it is very difficult," Putin said.
Joules MM1 there is an air of frivolity in your posts the past couple of days. Are you enjoying the market exuberance?
Smart people can criticize and rail against reality all day long everyday forever and do it nobly because leaders the world over HAVE made a giant mess of things. But such nobility is underperforming and you can see it in persistently punk hedge fund performance numbers.
Perhaps, the mess, after being hashed and rehashed, is in the market while price is sniffing out something more constructive.
smells like a teen blow-off coming.....
Bespoke @bespokeinvest
The intraday TIKX just hit -400 for the 2nd time this month. Two big sell programs have sent this market to flat for the day. $DIA $SPY $$
Are any chartists starting to think that the S&P 500 is looking a bit toppy?
I was wondering if any Elliot Wave proponents believe we may be nearing the top of Wave 5 (the third wave up) form the bottom of 2009? If so, what sort of correction might be in store? Worst case scenario I can see looking at the chart of the S&P 500 going back to the 1990s is a triple-top correction from a triple top of 2000, 2007 and 2013(?).
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