S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis


The bulls are a bunch of scaredy cats
July 11, 2012, 12:08 PM

excerpt

On Monday I’d asked you guys to answer my poll question of who’s more scared, the bulls or the bears. The results were surprising to me in how overwhelming in one direction they were ”” The bulls are more scared. I had 70 responses and it was 61 Bulls, 9 Bears. The way to think about this “Who’s more scared” poll is that it generally works as a great contrarian indicator when it’s this far skewed to one side.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2012/07/11/the-bulls-are-a-bunch-of-scaredy-cats/

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

Hamzei on fire tonight. Been good.
Past my bedtime now. :sleeping:

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

On The Verge Of The "Ultimate Death Cross"07/16/2012 09:02 -0400

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/verge-ultimate-death-cross

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

THE MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS IN THE WORLD Jul. 13, 2012, 7:19 AM

some rippers in here.......

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-important-charts-in-the-world-2012-7?op=1

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

I think I've just read the perfect tweet re the S&P500/US equity mkts in general, went something like this:

The market is ignoring bad news, which is positive.
But the news has been truly terrible, which is negative.

Yeah.
EG. last night's retail sales figs in the US ... not just in isolation but the past 3 numbers now ... awful ...
And yet here we are at 1350-ish ...

Then there is this to consider:

Short sales on the New York Stock Exchange have climbed above last September's peak, a level that preceded a five-month rally and heralded losses for bears.

Shares borrowed and sold reached 5.35 percent of stock available for trading last month, according to data compiled by NYSE Euronext. (NYX) That eclipses 5.28 percent on Sept. 15, when bearish bets peaked last year and the 25 most-shorted companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) began a 21 percent advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...p-2011-peak-as-september-bets-lost-21-1-.html

Bernanke testifying this morning.

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

I think I've just read the perfect tweet re the S&P500/US equity mkts in general, went something like this:



Yeah.
EG. last night's retail sales figs in the US ... not just in isolation but the past 3 numbers now ... awful ...
And yet here we are at 1350-ish ...

Then there is this to consider:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...p-2011-peak-as-september-bets-lost-21-1-.html

Bernanke testifying this morning.

T, are you referring to the Soros theory of.......gasp ........a manufactured uptrend?

an uptrend made of covering, who'd have thunk it

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

T, are you referring to the Soros theory of.......gasp ........a manufactured uptrend?

No.

I'm more in the camp of what you refer to here:

an uptrend made of covering,

The Bloomberg article shows there is plenty of this to be done.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

While I'm in the mood to repeat some Twitter comments; this one adapted slightly:

How not to add value on ASF/to your trading: repeat same tired sarcastic comments about Fed and government; argue with others; act partisan

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

enjoy, T

video: mitt's time machine

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/07/...-of-a-time-machine-ever/#.UAYBybr90tQ.twitter

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

Tuesday, July 17, 2012
More flight of capital out of the Eurozone

http://soberlook.com/2012/07/more-flight-of-capital-out-of-eurozone.html

excerpt

The chart below is an attempt to subtract out the Fed Liquidity Facility from the non-Eurozone deposit balances.....There is no question ... that the increase is driven by either Switzerland or Denmark (or both) defending the currency peg, buying euros and depositing them at the ECB. And the sellers of those euros are Eurozone's citizens trying to convert their money into other currencies.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

You're welcome.

Breadth doing OK too:

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

Been a good rally.
Now up near the top end of the recent range and in the region of the break down level from back in May.
Europe quiet.
VIX reflecting all this.
But, summer time and volumes down. It can move, and be moved.
Staying nimble and responsive to inputs (opinions don't pay the bills) paying off (as always).

Thoughts from here?

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

Bespoke ‏@bespokeinvest

The 100 S&P 500 stocks that pay no dividend are down 1.3% MTD. The 100 highest yielders are up 1.02% MTD. $$

we're in distribution mode and i think that twitt above goes in favour of that idea.....buying "safety"

 

[CanOz]

Re: S&P Analysis

There are some warnings and some rotation to safe havens...like staples, utilities etc..

CanOz

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

Tks Gents

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

Tks Gents

ya think the Hamzei is tad harsh on the doug ?



actually, he's wrong about the call and the dougy has made some good calls

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

ya think the Hamzei is tad harsh on the doug ?

Is that Doug Kass?

I don't follow nor read Kass so I can't really comment.

Sounds pretty harsh though ....

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: S&P Analysis

ya think the Hamzei is tad harsh on the doug ?

View attachment 47994

actually, he's wrong about the call and the dougy has made some good calls

Yeah I haven't read any of his stuff for a long time but I used to. They were mostly pretty sound and timely calls.

 

[CanOz]

Re: S&P Analysis

Yeah I haven't read any of his stuff for a long time but I used to. They were mostly pretty sound and timely calls.

Who is Dougy?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: S&P Analysis

Who is Dougy?

Runs a dedicated short fund. Does stuff for thestreet.com

http://www.thestreet.com/author/1358076/DougKass/all.html