S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

Extreme Selling pressure has the bulls against the ropes and Tom Malone issuing a TTT Buy Signal $study

http://www.mrtopstep.com/2012/05/ex...nwebsite-c&utm_medium=wordtwitpro-onwebsite-m

This is the 5th time in 50 years that the Up Issues Ratio has been this oversold on a 5-, 10- and 21-day moving average basis while the S&P 500 was above its 200-day moving average. There was some short-term weakness after several of them, but all of them were positive over the next 3-6 months. The dates were 7/28/75, 10/20/78, 3/7/80 and 12/11/80.
Besides today, there have been 17 days since 1960 that the Stock/Bond Ratio has exceeded -2.2 while the S&P was above its 200-day average. All 17 dates showed a positive return over the next 30 days, averaging +3.5%. The maximum loss over the next 30 days averaged -1.7% compared to a maximum gain that averaged +6.0%.
In the past 20 years, there have been 15 days when the 5- and 10-day Total Put/Call Ratio were this extreme. Over the next 30 days, the S&P 500 was positive after all 15 dates, averaging +5.9%. The maximum loss averaged -1.7% while the maximum gain averaged +6.5%. They all occurred in the past 5 years, and were scattered among four distinct time periods (April 2007, September 2007, March 2008 and September 2011).
The number of stock trading above their 40 day moving average has dropped from 87% to below 17%. That is a 70% point drop in just 13 days. That extreme overselling is almost always rewarded to the upside. 3/2009, 6/2010, 8/2011 even if temporary.

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

Stock Returns Around Memorial Day
May 21, 2012

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/6364/calendar-effects/stock-returns-around-memorial-day/

The following chart shows the S&P 500 Index average daily returns from.........

 

[baby_swallow]

Re: S&P Analysis

Here's the monthly chart. May is a prominent red bar.
The market is right on track to repair completely this low volume
up move since December 2011 to 1250 level.

My guess is if the market breaks 1250 and test 1200, there will be
another quantitative easing announcements. If not, the market will
drift down to test 1100 and 1050 then it will go sideways in trading
range for years.

 

[joea]

Re: S&P Analysis

http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/...acts-davy-crockett-wouldnt-care-about-2012-06

joea

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

exactly what is the average man on the street thinking?

 

[notting]

Re: S&P 500

exactly what is the average man on the street thinking?

At least I didn't invest in property?

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

Fed more upbeat on economy in Beige Book
By Jason Lange

WASHINGTON | Wed Jun 6, 2012 7:59pm EDT


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012...ource=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=56943
excerpt

"Overall economic activity expanded at a moderate pace," the central bank said on Wednesday in its latest "Beige Book" summary of business activity covering a period between early April and late May.

The Fed Beige Book Is Out, And It's A Relief
Joe Weisenthal | Jun. 6, 2012, 2:01 PM



http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-beige-book-out-2012-6

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

U.S. debt load falling at fastest pace since 1950s
By Rex Nutting

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-debt-load-falling-fastest-040045522.html

since the recession ended in June 2009, total U.S. debt has risen at the slowest pace since they began keeping records in the early 1950s. While Washington has taken on a lot of debt since then, the private sector has paid off, written off or dumped on the government almost as much.

As a share of the economy, debt has plunged as a consequence of rapid deleveraging by families, banks, nonfinancial businesses, and state and local governments. The ratio of total debt to gross domestic product has fallen from 3.73 times GDP to 3.36 times.

Cecchetti and his co-authors found that growth can be impaired once nonfinancial corporate debt hits about 90% of GDP, or when household debts hit 85% of GDP, or when public debts hit about 85%.

In the U.S., household debt has now fallen to 84% of GDP from a peak of 98%. Nonfinancial corporate debt has fallen to 77% from a peak of 83%. Financial sector debt has plunged from 123% of GDP to 89%. Public debt has risen to 89% from 56%.

 

[Boggo]

Re: S&P 500

Interesting summary of the S&P500 by Cramer based on Carolyn Boroden's analysis (Carolyn was a student of Robert Miner).

http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/publi...-Jim-Cramer-Has-the-stock-market-bottomed.cfm

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

Interesting summary of the S&P500 by Cramer based on Carolyn Boroden's analysis (Carolyn was a student of Robert Miner).

http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/publi...-Jim-Cramer-Has-the-stock-market-bottomed.cfm

used to use that multi tier technique a lot.... they'll become standard fodder techniques du jour soon enough thanks to several plugs by Cramer over the last few weeks....they require high liquidity instruments to work gold works well with them as long as it's in the confines of the one larger move....for example, 1.27 ratios as an inverted measure works well with 1:1 ratio in simple abc moves within a larger retrace where the whole retrace is a 78.6 (square 61.8)..... once there's multiple measures in a tight zone i've found that watching pricing action in lower time frames tells if the res/sup was going to get broken or would require a larger pull back before a second attempt.....at the second attempt if the zone was to be broken by just a fraction (fake) then that left the door open to continuation price pulls back a third time and then the group builds and carries price through the res/sup level and gathers energy........

very useful even tho the trader should already be aware of the likely moves ahead, these measures should fit the action of trend and consolidation, as in, theyre like part of the routine of thrust and refrain, of moving to resistance and chopping through the wood......

i think theyre worth the look for a lot of traders who are limited for time as they are directly linked to active price.......well, they beat any indicator......the challenge is to keep the context correct and not fall into a trap of thinking they'll tell the whole story of movment and it's easy to be distracted by them, they can become a crutch......

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

June 15, 2012, 10:02 a.m. EDT
Consumer sentiment lowest since December

By Ruth Mantell

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index fell to a preliminary June reading of 74.1 -- the lowest level since December -- from 79.3 in May, according to Friday reports. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a June reading of 77.8, with weak jobs data and stock-market volatility more than offsetting lower gas prices. The sentiment gauge, which covers how consumers view their personal finances as well as business and buying conditions, averaged about 87 in the year before the most recent recession. Economists watch sentiment data to get a feel for the direction of consumer spending.

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

this should be fun escapade.....where have we seen this before.....

RT @BreakingNews: Russian ship carrying armed Russian troops is on its way to Syria to guard Russian assets, US mil officials tell @NBCNews

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

Hamzei Put/call view ($ weighted)



explanation

http://communities.cboe.com/t5/What-s-On-Our-Minds/Following-the-Big-Players-Using-Dollar-Weighted-VIX-Put-Call/ba-p/2907

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twitter

Rennie Yang ‏@MarketTells

NYSE TICK low -768, highest low since January $$

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

Hamzei Put/call view ($ weighted)

View attachment 47451

explanation

http://communities.cboe.com/t5/What-s-On-Our-Minds/Following-the-Big-Players-Using-Dollar-Weighted-VIX-Put-Call/ba-p/2907

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twitter

Joules - tks for posting this.
Do you use a lot of Hamzei's stuff? I've been curious about his work. I've followed
him on Twitter for a while (wish he wouldn't tweet out his favourite youtube songs during mkt hours though LOL)
& what's your Twitter name (is that the right terminology ? )? PM if you prefer.

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

Joules - tks for posting this.
Do you use a lot of Hamzei's stuff? I've been curious about his work. I've followed
him on Twitter for a while (wish he wouldn't tweet out his favourite youtube songs during mkt hours though LOL)
& what's your Twitter name (is that the right terminology ? )? PM if you prefer.

oh and "one more ping, Ramius!" :1zhelp:

lulz

yes, follow on twittness monster and review the occasional webinar......he's got a few prop indicia that give him a good heads up and he usually plays them on news annocs and seems to be on the right side 90% of the time.....i am keen to trial his $ put/call when it's finished the beta testing

joulesmm1

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P Analysis

yes, follow on twittness monster

But i really like it when he tweets out this sort of thing (about 4 mins ago, 2334):

BUY Programs detected at NYSE

And the ES just sits there and can't go up any more ... its almost like cheating

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

... its almost like cheating

the calls got killed but no genuine lift in puts......the caution should be on the downside

tomandprisha ‏@tomandprisha

TTT BUY SIGNAL HIT at 1318 ESU12 all is well TTT Buy signal hit
Retweeted by redliontrader

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

also, US overnights are up 3 points spx.....unless that's a furffy i think we'll see a pos bias into friday but not anything rip roaring.......who'll want to hold over the weekend is the main question.......smells like a teen topping process

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P Analysis

still in the t process........todays move firms an inverted h/s on spx closing bar above 1316 upwards slanting req'd......a few insto eyes be thinking that'd be bullish and they'd make it so........

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500

they like him they dont like him, theyre happy theyre not happy.....err....

The Difference Between Obama's First Term And Bush's First Term...Chart

http://www.businessinsider.com/obamas-first-term-and-bushs-first-term-2012-6#ixzz1yxFCB0Cn

As you can see, under Obama, private employment snapped back much better than it did during Bush's first year.
State and local government employment, however, fell much harder under Obama than it did under Bush.
This is of course exactly the opposite of the big government socialist stereotype that the Obama economy is portrayed as

Bad News For Obama: Confidence In The Economy Is Plunging

http://www.businessinsider.com/econ...utton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=politics

Gallup's economic confidence has plummeted for the fourth straight week. The index now stands its lowest point since January, when high gas prices rocked Americans' confidence in the economy.

....nice piccies tho